Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 291355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
855 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Issued at 850 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Other than to increase PoPs across the James River Valley this
morning per observed radar trends through 1330 UTC, the forecast
for the remainder of the day is unchanged.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Some light showers have developed over north central North Dakota
and continue to settle to the south. For early morning update have
adjusted precipitation chances a bit to account for this.
Otherwise, previous forecast remains in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Northerly flow aloft continues today, as an upper low maintains
its position over southern Ontario. Weak shortwaves continue to
pinwheel around the center of circulation, moving into north central
North Dakota from Manitoba. Latest regional radar/Canadian radar
shows another area of light showers west of Brandon, Manitoba
diving south towards Bottineau County. Expect isolated to
scattered rain showers favoring the Turtle Mountains south into
the James River Valley today. Much less shower activity west of
this area. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph will be common across
western/central ND today. Showers will likely mix down higher
momentum air for brief/higher gusts than mentioned above. Overall
expect mostly sunny conditions west, with a partly to mostly
cloudy sky central. Highs will be cooler today with mid/upper 50s
in the Turtle Mountains, while low to mid 60s will occur elsewhere.

For tonight, patchy frost expected in the locally colder southwest
portion, like Hettinger, as lows drop into the mid 30s. Should be
brief with minimal areal coverage, so no highlights as of now.
The dayshift can look at this once again later this afternoon.
Overnight lows overall will range the upper 30s from western into
most of central ND, with lower 40s James River Valley where enough
cloudiness remains in association with the Ontario upper low.
Clear conditions west tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The Ontario upper low slowly shifts east Tuesday. Expecting dry
conditions west and central with clouds gradually decreasing
through the afternoon in the James River Valley. Plenty of
sunshine elsewhere with a northwest wind dominating. Highs will be
in the 60s. A northern Rockies upper ridge begins to approach
western North Dakota Wednesday, then slides into central ND
Thursday evening. Warm air advection commences Wednesday and
continues into Thursday. H85 temps at Bismarck rise from +6C
Tuesday afternoon, to +12C Wednesday afternoon, then +20C
Thursday. This trend supports highs in the mid 70s Wednesday, then
lower 80s Thursday. As the upper ridge shifts east Thursday night,
chances for showers and thunderstorms return in the west. The
GFS/ECMWF in good agreement with a mid level shortwave and
associated frontal system, spreading showers and thunderstorm
chances into central ND Friday afternoon into Friday night. Cooler
into the weekend with a chance of showers Saturday. The GFS and
ECMWF depart on a solution for Sunday as the EC is dry, while the
GFS is hinting at some shower activity mainly central ND. Highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s both days.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 850 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Scattered rain showers are expected across central North Dakota
today. Pockets of MVFR stratus across central North Dakota this
morning will lift through the late morning and afternoon. Another
windy day is expected area wide with northwest gusts of 25-35 kts.




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