Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 282331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT -SHRA. LCL LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS






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