Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 242110
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MVFR CIGS LINGERING FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KEPT THOSE CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z. OTHERWISE...MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 22Z-00Z...THEN MOVE EAST TO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 06Z...AND
TO KJMS AROUND 09Z-12Z. THERMAL CAP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ALONG
AND BEHIND IT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ND AT KISN/KMOT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





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