Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 241454
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
954 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE DRY SLOT FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS WRAPPED TOTALLY AROUND THE VERTICALLY STACKED
MID/UPPER LOW. OCCLUDED SYSTEM NOW CIRCULATING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY...RIDING ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. DEFORMATION ZONE EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RADAR SHOWS ECHOES FILLING IN ACROSS THIS AREA...AND
CURRENT POPS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. DID ADJUST WINDS A BIT
HIGHER TODAY USING A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH GRAND FORKS...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY WIND ADVISORY...AS MINIMAL AREAL COVERAGE AND OVERALL
LENGTH OF TIME MEETING SUSTAINED 30 MPH IS MARGINAL. ALSO COORDINATED
WITH GRAND FORKS TO INCREASE POPS TONIGHT AS STRATIFORM PRECIP
SHIELD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STACKED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ENVELOP MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE 06-10 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL FURTHER NORTHERN INTO THE HIGHWAY
200 AND US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDORS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DRY SLOT
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THROUGH 1130 UTC ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA THAT WILL PROPAGATE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHIFTED THE GREATEST
POPS AND RAINFALL TOTALS FURTHER NORTH IN LINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE SUITES. MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW DEEPENS AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFIES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH AN UNSTABLE
ELEVATED MOIST LAYER.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATED ZERO PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 4 AM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL
APPEARS TO LINE UP BETWEEN I94 AND HIGHWAY 200...WHERE 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS PINPOINTED FOR THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30
MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SEVERAL WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AND STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS DURING THE DAY
IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TODAY IN STRATUS AND DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KDIK/KBIS/KISN. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE TODAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.