Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 232007
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

STRATUS IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A MILD
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

WILL FOLLOW THE 18 UTC RAP FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1930 UTC.
EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 925-850 MB
MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WARM WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IF THE STRATUS DOES LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD
HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI. THIS WILL
BE THE WARMEST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE EARLY
AUGUST.

LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THE MODELS (12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM) CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE
ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ENTER THE FORECAST MONDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS AT KJMS AND KBIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO NEAR IFR. THIS STRATUS MAY
BRUSH KMOT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
KMOT/KBIS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT ADD
TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIMES. STRATUS CLEARS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD








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