Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 051114
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
514 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A lot can change in a few hours across the Northern Plains. Models
have finally come into agreement with respect to Monday and
Tuesday`s storm. Unfortunately (or fortunately...depending who you
are) they agree that there will be rather stout snowfall amounts
for portions of central and northern North Dakota.

A negatively tilted trough will deepen over North Dakota this
afternoon and a strong cold front will swing through late this
morning. This will be the focus for snowfall today. General model
consensus shifts the track further south than previously expected
and brings between 2 and 10 inches of snow north and east of the
Missouri River. Two main areas of snow are expected. The first one
will be across northern North Dakota...generally along and north
of Highway 2. The second will be across central North
Dakota...generally along and east of Highway 83. The heaviest
snow...6 to 10 inches...is expected across the northern James
Valley and Turtle Mountains. This is where the low pressure center
is expected to pivot and bring wrap around moisture overnight
Monday and into Tuesday morning.

Strong cold air advection will push in behind the cold front
today. Temperatures will drop sharply and wind speeds will
increase. This will likely lead to blowing snow across the
area today. Locations with snowpack may experience brief periods
of reduced visibility, but it`s the locations that experience
additional snowfall today that will likely deal with more
significant blowing snow and minimal visibilities. Winds around
30 mph can be expected through Tuesday. These winds and bitterly
cold temperatures will combine to create wind chills around 20
below.

There is some uncertainty with respect to snow amounts and
impacts across the southern James Valley today. The high-res
models want to bring in a band of moderate snow just east of
Bismarck and pivot it up through Jamestown. If this verifies it
could produce more snow than currently forecast and may warrant an
upgrade. However, this is a very recent development and hasn`t
been captured by anything other than the most recent runs of the
HRRR and RAP.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Bitterly cold temperatures will continue Wednesday through
Friday. Wind chills will persistently be around 10 to 20 below.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1209 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

VFR cigs begin this Taf period and will continue through the
early evening at KISN and late evening or the early overnight
hours elsewhere. Thereafter, cigs will trend downward toward
MVFR/IFR after 08z-12z Monday through 00z Tuesday. Gusty
northwest winds to around 25kt will develop after 12z Monday with
reduced visibilities in snow and possibly some patchy blowing snow
by Monday afternoon.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon CST Tuesday for
NDZ021-022-035>037-046-047-050.

Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for NDZ001>003-
011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ



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