Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
243 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Early this afternoon, the surface low responsible for mixed precip
last night and today was centered near far southeast ND. Precip
continued to move out of our CWA with some lingering light
snow/rain across the north central. Continued to carry light
precip across this region through the early evening, in agreement
with high res models. On larger scale, water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show deep trough moving inland over the
Pacific Northwest with strong 120kt 300mb jet streak moving
inland. This will support surface low tracking to our south
tonight and Tuesday, with the main impacts to SD. Our far
southwest could be brushed by this system tonight and into
southeastern ND during the day on Tuesday, with low pops currently
in place.

Otherwise, the state remains in a cool northeasterly flow through
Tuesday with extensive cloud cover expected to continue. Forecast
soundings and BUFKIT indicate winds don`t fully decouple
overnight, although winds aloft are not too impressive and
boundary layer winds are only in the 20 to 25 knot range. Highs on
Tuesday will only be in the upper 30s, more than 20 degrees cooler
than normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A broad trough of low pressure aloft will maintain much cooler
than normal temperatures through most of the week and support a
storm track generally south of our region. Highs on Wednesday and
Thursday will be in the 40s and into the low 50s by
Friday/Saturday. Otherwise, mostly dry weather expected with no
significant impacts expected from weather. Ensemble situational
awareness tool shows some anomalous low heights due to the upper
level trough situated over the CONUS, but otherwise all fields are
near average through the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings will dominate the 18Z TAF period. Although
pockets of VFR conditions at KMOT/KISN are expected, low ceilings
will impact each of the TAF sites through the majority of the TAF
period. Also look for north/northeast winds to increase through
the latter half of the period.




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