Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 301744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VISIBILITIES WERE IMPROVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES VALID UNTIL AROUND 4 PM. AS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON THE SMOKE SHOULD NOT POSE
VISIBILITY ISSUES AT THE SURFACE.

FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
MOVING EAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND JAMES BASIN REGIONS.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING CAPE AND ESTABLISHED SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED (A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD) IN NATURE. WITH TIME SOME
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND MAY EVEN REACH SEVERE
LEVELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH VISIBILITY IN WILLISTON RISING FROM 1-2 MILES
TO 4 MILES...THOUGH CROSBY IS STILL REPORTING 1 MILE VISIBILITY.
WILL REVISIT THIS ISSUE AROUND NOON TO SEE WHETHER MIXING WITH WINDS
AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS HELPS MIX OUT THE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FREE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE UPDATED
PRECIP CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST
BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY...ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ND...THE OTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE AM
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE SMOKY CONDITIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LET THE DAYSHIFT RE-EVALUATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PAST THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY...IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM BOWBELLS...TO STANLEY...SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN AND INTO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RIDING OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MORTON/GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS
COUNTIES...AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND EASTERN MONTANA..ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE. AS
THIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE AREAL COVERAGE TODAY...BUT TIMING HOW
LONG AND WHICH AREAS WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE PRETTY MUCH TRENDED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...SHIFTS
INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A FORMIDABLE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. SPC HAS
NOW INCREASED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEST...AND EXPANDED THE MARGINAL AREA TO NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT/GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES PER GFS INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1300 J/KG WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55-60KT.
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULKSHEAR
OF 50-55KT. HAVE INJECTED SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATA/POINT
AND CLICK...AND WILL CARRY THIS MESSAGE OUT INTO THE STATE FORECAST/HWO
FOR CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THURSDAY...SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. KEPT WORDING AT CHANCE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO SPECIFIC PERIODS WHEN POPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE BETTER
FINE-TUNED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME ACROSS THE WEST NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHERE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODELS MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES
SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AFTER HIGHS WED & THURS 70-80. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT -
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COUPLED TOGETHER. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A CAP
LIKELY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECONDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 60S ACROSS THE EAST DEPENDING
ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS DEPICTED FOR MONDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS. WE WARM BACK UP MID-WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN AND KMOT...BUT NOW
EXPECTED ONLY TO 2-6 MILES. VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO LOW/MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WEAK SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE KJMS AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KISN/KDIK AT 18Z...AND
AT KMOT/KBIS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KDIK TO KMOT AND KBIS FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV


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