Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 021814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1214 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

The latest satellite and radar continues to indicate clouds along
with flurries across western and portions central ND. BUFKIT
soundings suggest saturation near -10C which appears to dominate
more with ice crystals than supercooled water droplets. This is
in line with the precipitation type that has been occurring.
Previous shift mentioned patchy freezing drizzle ending in the
morning, and that fits the current scenario. No significant
changes to current forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 1005 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Latest Bismarck and Bowman radars show increasing reflectivity`s
across portions of the west and approaching south central ND.
Surface observations indicate trace amounts of light snow. This is
in association with warm air advection processes/vertical lift.
Expect this to continue into at least early afternoon and have
added some light snow mention and flurries west into portions of
south central. Rest of forecast is on track.

UPDATE Issued at 621 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Have kept patchy freezing drizzle going for the early morning
hours over the southwest and south central as some very light
freezing drizzle fell in Bismarck and webcam up by Garrison Dam
had a few spots on it. This should remain very light, though. Only
other change was to back off on fog over the central as it has
been reluctant to develop. Still kept some patchy fog over the
southwest in the higher terrain.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Current surface analysis place low to the south of James Bay with
high over the west coast. Upper level analysis place low over
western Quebec/eastern Ontario with trough stretching from the
upper midwest towards the Great Basin. Cool and moist low levels
over our area has lead to persistant low cloud cover with some
spots of freezing drizzle, though this has tapered off over the
last few hours.

For today...weak wave moving through may bring some very light
snow to the southwest, otherwise quiet weather with persistant
cloud cover will remain. A little clearing may develop over the
southwest/south central overnight ahead an an approaching trough.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Aforementioned trough quickly pushes through the area bringing low
snow chances for Saturday. Brief quiet spell returns during the
day on Sunday as region remains between disturbances. Our first
real shot of cold air for the season comes early next week as a
surface low deepens over the plains and lifts over
Manitoba/Ontario allowing an arctic airmass to pour into the
region. This will also bring a good chance for snow through the
area with modest isentropic lift to start followed by enhanced
broad scale lift from trough swinging around upper low to the
north. Frigid temperatures will linger through the work week with
many places seeing only single digits for high temperatures, and
overnight wind chill values of 15 below to 30 below zero.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Generally MVFR ceilings are expected at central ND sites of KMOT,
KBIS, and KJMS this afternoon with some flurries. Mix of VFR and
MVFR at KMOT and KBIS aft 00z...and aft 05z at KJMS.

Mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings for KISN and KDIK this
afternoon...becoming all VFR aft 00z.




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