Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 242305
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.
Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night. A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight. The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.
a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms. Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa. Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil. A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night. Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
Going into Wednesday night...weak surface low out over the Central
Plains ahead of slow moving upper low/trough over the Rockies...will
combine with a boundary over the Kansas/Nebraska border to bring
some light rw/trw activity to mainly northern areas thru the
overnight period. By Thursday as upper trough/low begins to shift
eastward into the plains and exits the area slowly by late Friday.
some mid level ridging will allow for periods of dry conditions
going into the first half of the weekend...do expect increase in
areal coverage of rw/trw late Saturday night on through the
beginning of next week as a couple of shortwave move around the base
of approaching upper low from the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies.
The entire Tri State region will have chances for trw/rw for much of
the extended period. Lowest probability will occur on Saturday as
weak ridging occurs. Best chances for precip will occur Thursday
and Thursday night with the arrival of the enhanced dynamics of
the upper low combining with remnants of surface low/frontal
boundary. SPC currently has a slight risk for severe wx for the
entire cwa w/ focus on eastern/northern areas ahead and north of
low where best moisture/lift will occur...aided in part along the
remnants frontal boundary. Blocking h5 ridge over the eastern
portion of the country will stall the exit of this
system...allowing for wrap-around moisture to keep chances for
trw/rw into Friday before tapering off.
For temps...looking for mainly near to above normal numbers for the
extended period with mainly mid to upper 70s for daytime highs. Some
locales in eastern/southeastern zones could reach the lower 80s. The
slow passage of the upper low Thursday/Friday will provide enough
caa into nw zones to keep upper 60s for some areas. Overnight lowswill
range in the 50s with some upper 40s in ne Colorado.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016
KGLD...currently expecting vfr conditions through the period. Am
concerned about model boundary layer moisture that at present time
is overdone with forecast ceilings. This moisture ramps up early
to mid evening and continues through the early morning hours
before lifting northeast away from the terminal. Have scattered
clouds around 400` as a start and will watch closely. Winds begin
the period from the southeast around 11-12kts with some gusts then
shift to the southwest under 10kts around 8z. Winds continue to
veer around to the west and northwest near 10kts from 9z to 18z
then back to the southwest around 7kts from 19z through the rest
of the taf period.
KMCK...similar to KGLD am concerned about models handling of low
level moisture and possibility that cigs wont be as low as they
suggest. Otherwise am expecting thunderstorms around/over the
terminal from 6z through about 11z. Vfr cigs at taf issuance
expected to decrease to ifr/vlifr range by 6z and continue through
16z. after 17z drier air moves in from the southwest allowing vfr
conditions to return through the rest of the taf period.