Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 130507
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH...HOWEVER THEY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TRY
TO RETURN NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
WHILE IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER 30S AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY ALTHOUGH
THINK IT WILL MOSTLY BE PATCHY IN NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT ACROSS THE FA.
SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN
2/3 OF THE FA. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY FROST
DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FA WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST DUE TO A SLOWER
RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AND A TIMING DELAY OF STRATUS. DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE FROST, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
FROST ADVISORY. POPS WILL BE NIL ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES WARM UP
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. AS A RESULT, MAX SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM BE WILL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH THE MINOR CONCERN OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.

MODELS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS STARTING OUT WELL WITH NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE. AT MID LEVELS WOULD HAVE TO FAVOR THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND UKMET A LITTLE MORE. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE SREF ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF A LITTLE
BETTER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LEFT REAR QUADRANT JET WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AIR MASS BECOMES MUCH DRIER ALOFT AND STABLE.
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WITH LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. MAY END UP BEING DUE BUT
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FOG. WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE IT
JUST LOOKS PATCHY AT THIS TIME AND WILL BRIEF THE MID SHIFT ON
THIS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET LOOKS LIKE IT
STARTS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
WITH THIS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING.
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE ON THE POSITION. THERE IS ALSO
SOME INDICATION THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT. MODELS ARE DEPICTING DIFFERENT WEAK LIFT SOLUTIONS WITH
SHORTWAVES WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HINTED AT. ALSO SOME OF
THE OUTPUT HAS THE MID LEVELS VERY DRY AND WOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN GIVING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. THIS
AREA THEN LOOKS TO TRANSITION SOUTH AND EAST. SO WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHEST IN THE NORTH.

DID COOL OFF SUNDAY MAXES A LITTLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER...UNFAVORABLE
SURFACE WIND FIELD...AND LATEST LOW LEVEL THERMAL GUIDANCE.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION AND AS THE UPSLOPE/COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...MAIN JET LIFT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE
DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. UPSLOPE AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION
AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION.

KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR THE MORNING. ALSO THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LOOKS TO BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF THAT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEFINITELY MAKE
FOR A COOLER DAY. DID LOWER MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE CLOUDS BREAK.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN NOT TOO BAD AGREE
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DIVERGE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. CRH_INIT GAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THAT LOOKED REASONABLE ENOUGH AND KEPT FOR NOW.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. MODELS HANDLE THE INCOMING RIDGE DIFFERENTLY
WITH THE GFS BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FASTER WITH THE ECMWF MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER IN MOVING THE RIDGE THROUGH. GEFS IS
SUPPORTING MORE THE GFS OF COURSE WITH THE FLATTER SOLUTION. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT START
MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THE INIT GAVE ME BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES MAKE THIS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED KGLD BUT PERSIST
NOT TOO FAR AWAY. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD REDEVELOP AT KGLD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE WINDS CAN MAINTAIN EVEN A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. KMCK WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024



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