Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200547
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

WILL BE ISSUING UPDATE TO FINE TUNE COVERAGE BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP). CIN REMAINS
HIGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A
DRYLINE OVER SE COLORADO. THESE FEATURES SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND ACT AS FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE. LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF CHEYENNE RIDGE AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AS THETA-E
ADVECTION INCREASING WITH NOCTURNAL JET AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
THE MOST FAVORABLE SUPPORT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY EASTWARD
03-09Z...AND SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN
COVERAGE IN NORTHERN COLORADO. I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
FURTHER NORTH LINGERING THROUGH 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
BEST COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

I ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE 10-14Z PERIOD SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHER TD VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. STEERING WIND AT 10 TO 15KTS WILL BRING THE STORMS
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  CAPE VALUES FROM 1000
TO 2000J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR OF 30KTS MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AN INCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE HRRR FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES RISE TO AROUND 100 BY 03Z SO WILL RESTRICT STORMS
TO THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.  SOME FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE.  CAPE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW WITH AROUND 200J/KG AND SHEAR
VALUES ARE 15 TO 20KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 60S.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY WITH A LACK OF STRATUS
AROUND.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 90S IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA WITH UP TO 102 AT
HLC. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE EASTERN FA.  PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES.
(SEE DETAILS BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN WHILE DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-105 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY SUPPORTS HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 FOR RED WILLOW...DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND NORTON
COUNTIES FROM 20Z-00Z. ON TUESDAY LITTLE CHANGE FROM MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER OR LESS HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND A SFC TROUGH WHILE
SIMILAR READINGS TO MONDAY (100-105) EXPECTED EAST OF THE TROUGH. WE
DO REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ACROSS THE SAME COUNTIES AS
MONDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
WARMEST READINGS IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF 700-300MB MOISTURE AIDED BY UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF HEATING TO WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16C-18C RANGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT TOWARD
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO DE-AMPLIFYING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW 100S. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WIND CONVERGENT LINE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS INTO THE CONVERGENT AREA AND
ELEVATED INHIBITION IS RATHER LOW. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER 3K J/KG CAPE ALONG WIND SHIFT
LINE FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY ECMWF/GFS
SHOW A SLUG OF 700-300MB MOISTURE EMERGING OFF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AT THE END OF THE DAY ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS UPPER JET DIVERGENT
SIGNATURE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LIFT ARE TO OUR WEST. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 17C-19C PRETTY MUCH CAPPING ANY POTENTIAL.
700-300MB MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY MOVES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS ATMOSPHERE LIKELY CAPPED
PREVENTING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN PLUME OF 700-300MB MOISTURE MOVES INTO
OR IS IN THE AREA AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON TIMING/POSITION OF THIS LOW WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT EITHER TERMINAL. CURRENT SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS BEST FOG/STRATUS CHANCES EAST OF KGLD...SO
HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF KGLD TAF. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN
THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH NAM IS FAVORING LOW STRATUS/FOG AROUND 12Z. I
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO AS LOW AS THE NAM (1/4SM) AND
COVERAGE STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY WITH KMCK
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF BETTER BL MOISTURE. I INTRODUCED A TEMPO IFR
GROUP DURING THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 11KT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD (WITH A
PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS ALONG TROUGH AXIS MORNING AND
MIDDAY)...EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ003-004-015-016.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
     016.

CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ081.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR






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