Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 232001 CCA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...STILL MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERNIGHT AS
MID LEVEL VORTICITY SPREADS EAST OVER THE CWA. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT
NORTH FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
CWA...AND WILL BE FOCAL POINT FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WAA ALONG
THIS FRONT CORRELATED WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ/INCREASING MU CAPE COULD
SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INDICATION OF THIS AS FAR
EAST AS THE COLORADO STATE LINE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT CAP WILL
HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST DESPITE
CLEARING/POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD BENEFIT FROM THESE STEEPENING SHEER PROFILES LATE...WITH
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED CELLS TO DEVELOP. HAIL WOULD BE A
THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS COULD BE AN ISSUE
CONSIDERING THE DRY MID LEVELS/POSSIBILITY FOR DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

THE ONE CONCERN WITH OVERALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES I HAVE IS HOW DRY
THE PROFILES ARE WITH PWATS 0.7 OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
INCREASING BL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE AND SUPPORTIVE OF
STATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST...HOWEVER ELEVATED PARCELS WILL
BE ORIGINATING FROM AN AIR MASS WITH LOW MIXING RATIOS. THIS RAISES
QUESTION ABOUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. I KEPT 40/50 POPS IN THE
EAST WHERE BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL/QPF CONSENSUS IS ADVERTISED...WITH
20 POPS IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY AXIS APPEARS TO QUICKLY
TRANSITION EASTWARD AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CWA
BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR MOVING EAST.

TUESDAY...WHILE THE LAST FEW RUNS OF GUIDANCE HAVE NOT SHOWN THE
SAME MAGNITUDE IN WINDS ALOFT TUESDAY...IT APPEARS 40 TO 45 MPH
WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. VERY LOW TD VALUES
WILL ADVECT EAST...AND RH VALUES WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT SHOULD
DEVELOP MY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL RH
(17 TO 20 PERCENT) IN OUR EAST AND FAR NORTH...HOWEVER
CONSIDERING THE WINDS THERE IS NOT A REASON TO CHANGE ONGOING RED
FLAG WARNING. FUELS COULD STILL BE COMPLICATED BY NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION...HOWEVER WITH A LIMITED CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN THERE
ISNT A REASON TO CHANGE EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH AXIS DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT OCCURRING AFTER 06Z.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE FOR
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW
CLOUD BASES AT 10KFT TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO AROUND 7KFT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNEDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE Q-VECTORS CONTINUE
TO SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT...MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LIMITED TO ABOVE
5KFT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LCLS
DROP TO AROUND 4KFT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS RATHER LOW. AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER JET MAX ON THE BACK SIDE WILL BE
ORIENTED SO THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT
EXIT REGION WITH A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN DESPITE THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND WITH LCLS AROUND 8KFT AND MOISTURE 10KFT OR
HIGHER. AREA WILL GET UNDER THE UNFAVORABLE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT
REGION BY 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT UPPER JET MAX WILL BE OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN A DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE. BLENDING OF
THE MODELS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. 15-20KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LULL IN WINDS LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN THE
PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST. RIGHT NOW BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AT KMCK LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
INSTABILITY QUICKLY TRANSITIONING EAST AND NORTH AFTER 08-09Z.
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS/POSSIBLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARDS KMCK. THIS IS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THERE TO ADD 1/4SM YET...SO I INTRODUCED LIFR CIGS AND IFR
VIS DURING THIS UPDATE. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE
12-15Z TIME PERIOD AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. KGLD SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM
     CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM
     CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR



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