Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 111727
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1127 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Just completed an update to raises maxes since temperature rise is
a little ahead of what previously called for.

UPDATE Issued at 836 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Forecast was updated for the cancellation of the freeze warning.
Also made some minor adjustments to hourly grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Today-Friday: A dry/subsident airmass is in place across the Tri-
State region this morning. Expect clear skies, a light southerly
breeze at 10-15 knots, and highs rebounding into the mid/upper 60s
to lower 70s. Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to
strengthening southwest flow aloft on Thursday/Friday as an upper
level trough digs into the PAC NW and Intermountain West. Small
amplitude waves rounding the southern periphery of the trough will
periodically eject northeast across the Rockies into the high
plains Thu/Fri, with an attendant lee cyclone in eastern CO.
Persistent low-level warm advection on the eastern periphery of
the lee cyclone will result in increasing temperatures Thu/Fri.
Despite the presence of some forcing (e.g. warm advection/weak
DPVA in SW flow aloft), a persistent upper level ridge over the
Gulf Coast will block low-level moisture return to the high
plains and effectively preclude any chance for precipitation. Fog
and/or low stratus, however, cannot be ruled out during the early
morning hours on both Thu/Fri.

Friday Night: The trough over the PAC NW/Intermountain West will
progress into ID/UT/WY by 12Z Sat. As low-level flow backs/
strengthens in response to the approaching upper trough, modest
low-level moisture will advect northward into the high plains.
Although low stratus may develop Sat morning, upper forcing with
the approaching trough will remain west of the CO Front Range and
thermodynamic profiles over the high plains will remain stable,
with shallow moisture beneath a very dry, well-mixed airmass
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

An upper trough moves from the Rockies to the Plains on Saturday,
with a front stalling across the region. Precipitation chances
increase throughout the day, peaking in the evening hours. A few
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon. At this
time, it appears any severe weather will be to the east of our area
in central and eastern Kansas. Dry conditions quickly return to the
region from west to east overnight, with the cold front advancing
southeast.

Subsidence settles in behind the upper trough on Sunday as surface
high pressure pushes over the High Plains. Northwesterly flow
develops aloft early next week with surface winds turn southerly,
bringing warmer air back into the area. Dry weather is anticipated
through the end of the period.

Highs range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s on Saturday with the
frontal boundary draped across the region. Temperatures cool to near
60 degrees on Sunday behind the cold front. This is followed by a
warming trend, with highs near 70 by Tuesday. Low temperatures
generally range from the low 30s to mid 40s throughout the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld, south
winds near 18 knots with gusts to around 26 knots will continue
through 00z. At 00z, the wind will decrease to near 10 knots. From
09z through the rest of the period, the winds will shift from the
southwest to the west at around 6 knots.

For Kmck, south winds near 16 knots with gusts to near 24 knots
will continue until 01z. From 01z to the end of the period, will
vary from southeast to south southeast at 6 to 9 knots. There will
be low level wind shear from 03z to 12z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER



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