Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201738
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1138 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH SUNDAY night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

A RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
BOUNDARY LAYER RH STAYS ABOVE 90 PERCENT UNTIL THAT TIME. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. AROUND
03Z THIS EVENING THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVERTISED BUT THE CAP IS
STRONG SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER.  PLAN TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INITIATION NEAR THE DRY LINE WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
THE DRY LINE IS FURTHER EAST WITH STORM INITIATION GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH SATURDAY AND UP
TO40 MPH SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT/DURATION OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE EAST TO 75 IN
THE WEST.  MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 IN THE
EASTERN FA TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  LOWER
80S SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW AND MID 50S ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

At the start of the extended period, upper ridging has pushed to the
east of the region while an upper trough develops over the western
CONUS, leading to southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, an area
of low pressure is located over south central Canada. Its associated
cold front extends south through the Plains and appears to be just
east of the area on Monday. Dry weather is currently expected to
start off the work week.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night into Tuesday
as lee cyclogenesis develops and the front moves back into the
region along with low level moisture. This ample moisture/high
instability airmass combined with an apparent shortwave passing
through the upper flow on Tuesday, generates the potential for
thunderstorms. Additionally, this setup could support severe
weather. Will work to resolve timing and location discrepancies in
the coming days to better assess the severe threat for the area.

Shower and thunderstorm chances persist Wednesday into Thursday. The
upper trough over the western CONUS pushes eastward towards the
Plains as disturbances pass through the southwesterly flow aloft.
With low level moisture and instability still in the vicinity, could
not rule out precipitation at any period during this time frame.

Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are anticipated
on Monday after the passage of the cold front the previous night.
Highs generally stay in the mid 70s to low 80s for the rest of the
extended. Lows look to range from the mid 40s in east central
Colorado to the mid/upper 50s in north central Kansas through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Low clouds/ceilings will gradually lift west to east across the
area through mid afternoon. KGLD will go VFR early with KMCK not
improving until later in the afternoon. TONIGHT...expect low
ceilings to develop in the evening hours with areas of fog
and drizzle after midnight through Saturday morning. Flight
categories overnight will likely become IFR with LIFR/VLIFR
possible.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024



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