000
FXUS63 KGLD 081155
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 THIS MORNING BEFORE
EXITING TO THE SOUTH AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S CREATE SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. UNDER A CLEAR SKY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
PREVENT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH THAT PUSHES ASHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST TOWARD THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WHEN
COMPARED TO SUNDAY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS IS
CLOSE TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE DONE PRETTY WELL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SNOW FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE LESS THAN AN INCH...PRIMARILY IN EASTERN COLORADO. WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SINCE NO EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE
UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. PERHAPS A BIT
BREEZY ON SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND DEEP MIXING
OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

KGLD...IFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z OR SO THEN RISING TO VFR BY 20Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10-11KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO
5KTS OR SO BY SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT LIGHT WEST WINDS AT 5KTS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z AND INCREASE TOWARD 12KTS AT THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6KTS EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
BY SUNSET AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 6-8KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND
RH VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AND 15 PERCENT FOR THOSE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT MAY BE A TAD TOO LOW TO WARRANT
A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. IN ADDITION...WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION/SNOW FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS TO GET AN IDEA OF
SOIL MOISTURE. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL BE
HOLDING OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT PRESENT TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99