Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190827
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Main concern will be if thunderstorms can continue to develop
along advancing cold front across eastern Colorado. While there is
a broken line of convection...cells have remained rather weak and
as front moves into a drier and less unstable airmass hard to see
coverage improving over the next few hours. Have refined PoP
forecast through 08z to account for latest trends, but think
probabilities east of the KS/CO state line remain low through the
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Main forecast issue will be chance/timing of rainfall. For
tonight...lee side surface will remain near or over the far west
portion of the area through this evening. At the same time
preliminary shortwave trough in advance of the main synoptic
trough. The first and weaker shortwave will move through the area
through the middle of the night. Since deeper lift and less
moisture will accompany these features, the lower/less
chance/coverage will occur.

The coverage/chance will increase late in the night as the main and
stronger shortwave trough begins to move through as a cold front
begins to move through the area. So a higher chance will occur late,
mainly in the north.

For Friday...Above mentioned main and deep lift due to the shortwave
trough and cold front will move through during the morning. Front
looks to exit the area early in the afternoon with the shortwave
trough exiting around the middle afternoon. However another
shortwave looks to be moving from the west/northwest at that time.
There may be a weak right rear quadrant of the jet that moves across
from the middle of the day through the afternoon.

Precipitation looks to increase dramatically during the morning with
most of the area, especially the north and eastern portions having
the best chance of precipitation during that time. During the
afternoon the main chance looks to be in the eastern portion that is
still closest to the front with the shortwave trough still to their
west. Lower pops will be in the west behind the main lift. Right now
it looks like the main threat for severe weather will be outside the
area due to the front moving through the area before peak heating
time.

Temperatures will be problematic due to cold front/cold air
advection, thick cloud cover, and ongoing precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Zonal flow early Monday will give way to an approaching trough as we
head into Tuesday. Nil PoPs are expected on Monday with chc PoPs on
Tuesday that will work in from the northeast as an area of low
pressure moves across the southern Canadian Plains and into the
Upper Midwestern States. Better thunderstorm chances are possible on
Wednesday afternoon/evening when the stronger forcing will be in
place. The three global models, GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all agree
with regards to the timing and placement of the trough. Will need to
monitor the possibility of severe thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon/evening as CAPE values climb into the 1600 to 2000 J/Kg
range and bulk shear will be near 45 kts in the presence of
relatively strong forcing. Thunderstorm chances persist into
Thursday and Friday as weak shortwave troughs travel along the outer
edge of a larger area of low pressure centered over the Hudson Bay
region.

Temperatures will be near to just above normal in the upper 80s to
lower 90s on Monday and Tuesday with near normal temperatures in the
lower 80s expected through the remainder of the extended period. Low
temperatures will fall into the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

While thunderstorms may move out of eastern Colorado and impact
GLD between 03 and 06z as cold front/outflow boundary slowly moves
into the area. With very dry airmass in advance of this feature
have my doubts that any storm coverage would be significant and do
not think chances are high enough to include in TAF. As front
continues to advance expect area of low stratus to develop across
northeast Colorado and spread eastward reaching GLD around 14z and
likely remaining just west of MCK. Period of IFR to MVFR
conditions expected btwn 14 and 18z.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



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