Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 130819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH...HOWEVER THEY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TRY
TO RETURN NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
WHILE IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER 30S AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY ALTHOUGH
THINK IT WILL MOSTLY BE PATCHY IN NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT ACROSS THE FA.
SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN
2/3 OF THE FA. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY FROST
DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FA WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST DUE TO A SLOWER
RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AND A TIMING DELAY OF STRATUS. DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE FROST, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
FROST ADVISORY. POPS WILL BE NIL ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES WARM UP
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. AS A RESULT, MAX SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL PROGRESS OVER THE AREA.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI STATE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH
MORE OF A DIRECT INFLUENCE TO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED KGLD BUT PERSIST
NOT TOO FAR AWAY. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD REDEVELOP AT KGLD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE WINDS CAN MAINTAIN EVEN A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. KMCK WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.