Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230522
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1122 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

A LEE SURFACE THROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT FRONT
RANGE FROM WYOMING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...MODELS ARE LIFTING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN
THE MODELS DEPICTION OF DEWPOINTS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA RISING INTO THE 50S. THE NEAR
SURFACE FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO IT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. BUT WITH NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MAY SEE MORE DRYING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED THAT WOULD GO
ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE
80S AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH. STRONGER SOUTHERLY
JET MAY ALSO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET AGAIN
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE INVERSION SETS UP. AS A RESULT...EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ALONG THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAY BE
MORE LIMITED TO SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A
LINE BETWEEN GOVE AND MCCOOK THAN FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT...BUT IF DRYER CONDITIONS
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED OCCUR ON SATURDAY...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO AROUND 20% WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND THE 35
MPH THRESHOLD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW/TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK WILL MOVE
OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MARGINAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO ANTICIPATING
ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER OUR AREA AND
WILL BE TAPPING INTO BETTER MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY...WINDY...UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AFTER A SHORT BREAK
ON THURSDAY...A THIRD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S. SUNDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S AS A WEAK PUSH
OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES. THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AS THE STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION MON-WED. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE HIGH BASED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...FS



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