Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 131930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
130 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

18z water vapor imagery indicated cwa under fast WSW flow between
trough over the PAC NW and southern plains ridge. At the sfc, cold
front was well to the south of the area and was located roughly along
a KCNC to KPTT line with high pressure building into the area. A
large area of stratus was observed immediately behind the front
which was slowly eroding across the forecast area.

Main near term concerns will be fog and precip potential tonight,
followed by magnitude of the winds tomorrow.

For tonight, warm air advection will increase as lee trough and
low level jet intensify through the evening. This increase in
winds will begin to advect higher mixing ratios into the area
above the frontal zone. While several models breaking out light
precipitation, sounding profiles appear to suggest very shallow
moisture profile similar to light drizzle as opposed to any deep
precipitation processes. There is a small threat for storms after
midnight however across southeastern CWA. Vertical profiles
suggest destabilization will occur through the night with around
1000 j/kg of elevated cape by 9z. This looks to remain somewhat
capped, but with persistent forcing and nearby frontal zone
providing more focused ascent, think there is a small chance for
storm development.

Other concern that will likely have a large impact on sensible is
potential for fog development tonight. Short term rapid update
models continue to suggest moisture profile will become more and
more favorable for fog development overnight as moisture content
increases. With todays cloud cover limiting temps, some portions
of CWA will be preconditioned for fog development. Best chances
are along the KS-CO border and would not be surprised to see
dense fog developing, but confidence not high enough for any

On Saturday, cold front will quickly advance across the area
during the afternoon hours. Still a fair amount of disagreement
with magnitude of winds behind the front and how deeply mixed the
atmosphere will be. GFS looks quite windy and with dewpoints
bottoming out could create a quick period of critical fire
weather conditions. However, this seems to be the outlier at this
point and a period of wind gusts to around 45 mph the most likely
scenario. Regardless of the post front humidity, strong winds will
make an enhanced fire threat given current state of fuels.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Winds remain elevated as we head into Saturday evening, tapering off
after sunset. CAA will prevail through the evening and overnight,
into Sunday morning. This has prompted a freeze watch for far
northwestern Kansas Sunday morning, when temperatures will range
from 30 to 32 degrees. Below average highs are in store as we will
only see lower to middle 60s on Sunday.

Northwest flow aloft will prevail Sunday through Wednesday as we
will be on the downstream side of an H5 ridge situated with an axis
in the southwestern US. This ridge will flatten and move east on
Wednesday as a trough approaches the Pacific Northwest, moving
onshore as we head into Thursday. Precipitation chances will be
nil from Sunday through Thursday.

Precipitation chances return to the region on Friday as a deep H5
trough pushes across the Intermountain West and into the Rockies;
however, there is some uncertainty with regards to the speed and
strength of the system.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

MFVR ceilings will persist for the next 2 hours or so before some
gradual scattering of cloud field is expected with heights
hovering around the MVFR/VFR threshold. Main concern will be for
the overnight hours as persistent daytime cloud cover and
increasing return flow will provide a potentially strong set up
for overnight fog. Still a wide amount of uncertainty about extent
and magnitude of the fog, but given latest trends feel confidence
in IFR or less categories enough to mention for GLD terminal with
more of a low stratus threat for MCK.




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