Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 251921
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
121 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016
18Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated plume of
moisture from northern Mexico into eastern Nebraska...with short
wave trough digging into Utah and Nevada. At the sfc 1024 mb ridge
was centered over the Nebraska panhandle with easterly sfc flow
ongoing across the CWA.
Although some shallow cu fields developing now along periphery of
sfc high...cloud field very limited in vertical extent and with
the lack of any incoming forcing mechanism do not expect any
storms developing during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Stronger shortwave trough begins to influence the CWA late
tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Fairly good signal that
instability will rise prior to passage of trough and expect
decent coverage of precipitation given timing of the forcing.
Expect storms coverage to peak between 18 and 21z and gradually
shift to the east. Given the expected instability and wind
profiles...would not be shocked to see a severe storm or two but
expect heavy rain to be primary forecast concern at this point.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016
A ridge builds into the region during the extended
period, causing thunderstorm chances to trend downward and
temperatures to rise.
On Sunday, an upper trough continues to pass east of the High
Plains, with upper level ridging starting to build in behind.
Monsoonal moisture will continue to travel north under the ridge as
it develops and pushes over the area. The highest chance for showers
and thunderstorms during this period appears to be Sunday night when
a disturbance passes through the flow and a boundary moves back into
Kansas. Precipitation chances quickly dwindle early next week as the
ridge amplifies, with only slight chances for storms Monday through
Tuesday in the southeastern CWA and nil PoPs Tuesday night and
Temperatures jump into the mid to upper 80s at the start of the
extended period and remain there through Tuesday before a slight
increase into the upper 80s/low 90s for Wednesday. Low temperatures
look to be generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016
VFR Conditions will prevail through at least 3z as winds become
southeasterly at 5 to 12 kts. Think best precip chances will
occur after 18z tomorrow. However...period of low MVFR to IFR
conditions will develop between 09 and 13z as area low stratus and
potentially fog develops south of I70 and moves to the north.