Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 032020
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (PER 700-
500MB RH CURRENTLY PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLORADO
ROCKIES) MOVES NORTHEAST ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS
AROUND 00Z THEN ALONG/NORTH OF THE CO/NE BORDER BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES IN BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FOR FRIDAY ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA BY 18Z THEN NORTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER WITH MILDEST READINGS AROUND HILL CITY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID TO
UPPER 90S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THE SURFACE FEATURE. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE BETTER COMPARED TO TODAY...NEAR 40KTS...BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AND WITH WEAK FORCING THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIND/HAIL.

A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE ASSOCIATED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. NONETHELESS...Q-VECTORS NOT UNFAVORABLE AND
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE IN THE AREA EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES BUT
INSTABILITY INCREASES...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA FROM KMCK TO KHLC...WHICH IS WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT
SOUTH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE
FRONT.

NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
EMERGE ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE COOLER AND
STABLE...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY BY THURSDAY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALBEIT LOW IS AROUND
23Z-06Z FOR KGLD AND 04Z-08Z FOR KMCK. WINDS AT KGLD MAY GUST OVER
20KTS IN THE 21Z-01Z TIMEFRAME OTHERWISE FOR BOTH TERMINALS
DIRECTION SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER
11KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99


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