Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1152 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A weather disturbance is forecast to move across the area this
evening bringing a slight chance of rain to much of the area. This
should exit the area a few hours before sunrise Wednesday
morning. Otherwise expect a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky with low
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Winds generally from the east
and southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts near 25 mph expected along
and west of the CO/KS border.

South to southeast winds, strongest along and west of the CO/KS
border continue through the day Wednesday with gusts around 30 mph
expected. Clouds expected to be of the high variety for most of the
area. 850mb temperatures warm about 2C to 7C across the area but the
east to southeast wind isnt favorable for great warming despite the
warming aloft. Currently have high temperatures ranging from the low
to mid 50s across the east (McCook to Gove and points east) with
low to mid 60s along and west of the CO/KS border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The extended period looks to be active with multiple chances of
measurable precipitation.

Thursday-Thursday night...Upper level trough with closed low height
center transverses the Rockies and approaches the area on Thursday.
Models have come into better agreement on the 12Z runs, keeping the
closed low to the south of our CWA as it progresses to the east.
Dryline setup on Thursday will determine where focus for potentially
strong to severe storms will occur. SPC currently has our entire
area in the Marginal highlight for Day 3. Looking at 12Z model
soundings, current thinking is that the dryline will set up near or
just east of the CO/KS border placing the best chance of
thunderstorms in the eastern half of our area late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening, with threats of damaging winds and
large hail possible. Our CO counties will need to be monitored for
fire weather conditions during the afternoon. Chose not to issue a
Fire Weather Watch on this shift due to the uncertain setup of the
aforementioned dryline. Overnight, the entire CWA should see rain.

Friday-Saturday...Vertically stacked low moves into and across
central Kansas through the daytime Friday. Definite to likely PoPs
through the day across most of the region. Chance for a thunderstorm
or two as the surface low and associated front move through the
area. Rain should continue into Friday night with a slight chance of
a changeover to snow early Saturday morning. Current forecast shows
QPF values of 0.75-1.00 in. across the CWA for Thurs-Sat.

*It should be mentioned that the 12Z NAM shows strong CAA as the low
passes by the area, changing the precip on the backside of the low
to all snow during the day on Friday, resulting in snow accumulation
along the CO/KS border. For now, that run is being treated as an

Sunday-Tuesday...Another closed upper low approaches the CWA Sunday
bringing us another chance of rain. Temps should be near normal.
Another disturbance enters the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Models
differ on strength and timing, but most agree on bringing the area
more measurable precip.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

For Kgld...Through 16z, the winds will slowly shift from southeast
to south southeast at near 15 knots. Shortly after the start of
the period, vfr conditions will mvfr and continue until 16z. At
16z vfr conditions begin and continue through the rest of the
period. From 16z to 18z south southeast winds from 17 to 22 knots
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Just after sunset those winds
decrease but will still be sustained near 18 knots with gusts to
26 knots.

For Kmck...Light rain showers near the site will quickly move to
the east shortly after the beginning of the forecast period. East
winds near 13 knots and vfr conditions will continue until 13z. At
13z, mvfr conditions develop as the winds shift to the southeast.
At 18z, vfr conditions return with southeast winds of 15 to 18
knots with gusts of 23 to 26 knots. At 02z, the winds lose their
gusts and remain sustained near 14 knots. Vfr conditions look to
continue through the end of the period however it will possible
that right before the end of the period that mvfr ceilings could




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