Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
900 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Issued at 857 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Have had to make a couple updates this morning. First was to add
patchy fog in the eastern portion of the area this morning. The
more significant update was to add thunder snow over the central
portion of the area through this morning. Radar showing elevated
convection. Some of the high resolution output is catching this
although slightly too far east. So based on that output and
current trends made that adjustment.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly cloudy
with high pressure off to the east and an inverted surface trough
sitting over the southern Rockies. The light ESE surface winds over
the area as a allowing for low cloud deck to remain in
place. Temperatures are mainly ranging from the mid/upper teens west
up the the lower 20s east. A few locales in NE CO that have briefly
cleared are seeing temps drop fast into the single numbers above

Regional radar showing very few echoes across the CWA at this
time...but cannot rule out light freezing drizzle/flurries in spots
especially east where Advisory remains in effect.

Going into today...region will see the inverted surface trough over
the southern Rockies...along with its upper support at H5/
lift across the region. Warmer air will work into the region ahead
of these systems thru the day...but with large T/Td spread already
at the onset...will be looking for limited precip/qpf before entire
system lifts N and E later today. Models still hinting at best snow
potential to remain north of I-70 with a focus over NE zones...
shifting to extreme N/NW zones on the backside of the system later
today. Will be looking for only 0.1" to almost 0.5" of light snow
during this time...with a few hundredths of an inch of freezing
rain/drizzle for eastern tandem with current Advisory.

Going into tonight and Friday...region will sit between exiting
system east and a stronger shortwave that will impact the area for
the first half of the upcoming weekend. Models show decent BL
moisture in place after 06z plan on keeping mention of
patchy fog for the CWA into the morning hours Friday before
dissipating. Otherwise dry conditions for the area during this time.

The main wx focus for the region in the short term will focus on the
shortwave and associated surface feature that will shift across the
CWA Friday night into Saturday. There are models differences as to
the timing/positioning of warm nose at 850/700 mb that will work
into the region. Latest GFS shows warm nose working into the
central/eastern portions of the CWA before moving east in tandem
with the aforementioned systems. Latest NAM shows warmer air aloft
barely reaching the southern CWA. This will play a key role as to
when area will see changeover from freezing rain/snow. Surface temps
in the 20s at the onset with a slow increase during Saturday morning
will mean some uncertainty as to p-type/amounts. For now 1-2 inches
of snow along and north of I-70 tapering off to the south. Ice accum
could potentially reach 0.05" to almost 0.10" if enough warm air
works into the CWA...especially east of Highway 25. The high
probability of wintry precip is certain for the region but low
confidence at this time as to amounts for p-type...but a mix of
these may allow for Advisory conditions to be met...and should be
monitored over the next 24 hours.

Precip expected to taper fairly quickly from west to east over the
area during the afternoon...setting the region up for dry conditions
Saturday night along with a decent northerly wind that could gust up
to 25 to 35 mph.

For temps...daytime highs will mainly range from the upper 20s/low
30s north down to mainly the mid and upper 30s across southern
locales. Overnight lows will range mainly in the teens with some 20s
E/SE as warmer air tries to work into area Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Dry weather returns to the forecast on Sunday as a weak wave moves
south of the region. Dry and warmer conditions are anticipated early
next week with southwest flow developing aloft as an upper trough
deepens over the west coast. These conditions could lead to fire
weather concerns for the southern portion of the region. Guidance
shows the trough closing off on Tuesday as it drops into southern
California and ejecting towards the High Plains on Wednesday. Will
wait to see how guidance refines discrepancies in the timing and
placement of this disturbance. It currently looks as though this
system brings some chances for light precipitation Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Temperatures climb from the 40s on Sunday to the upper 40s to upper
50s on Tuesday. Highs fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s on
Wednesday. Lows remain in the teens and 20s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 427 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

For KGLD...MVFR/IFR mix of conditions thru 21z this afternoon w/
ceilings BKN025 down to BKN007 in 3sm -shsn at times. From
21z...VFR conditions with MVFR conditions returning by 08z Friday
with 3sm br(after 08z) and BKN010. Winds SE around 10kts thru 08z
Friday...then light/variable.

For KMCK...mainly VFR conditions thru 20z...with tempo IFR with
1-2sm in -sn and ceilings below BKN010. From 20z onward...MVFR
with BKN010-015 and 3sm br after 08z. Winds SE 5-10kts thru 08z
Friday then light/variable.


KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ004-



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