Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 282157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
357 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

As of 2 pm CDT, 1 pm MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
quite blue, devoid of any cloud cover to speak of. Temperatures are
in the mid 70s to low 80s with warmest temperatures observed along
the Colorado border. Winds are light and variable across the region.
As the surface, high pressure extended from southern Canada south
across the Great Plains. The leading edge of the surface high, in
the form of a backdoor cold front, is moving through the High Plains
as we speak. Aloft, a large upper level low is diving south from the
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley. Another area of low pressure
was located over southern California. Sandwiched in-between is a
ridge of high pressure over the High Plains. This ridge, in addition
to the surface high and abundant dry air, have led to precipitation-
free (and cloud-free) weather today.

Clear and dry weather conditions are forecast to persist through
tomorrow and beyond. The surface high begins to retreat east
tomorrow and a lee trough should form along the Rockies. This will
lead to south winds becoming dominant and becoming gusty by late
tomorrow morning. Temperatures should be cooler, yet still
seasonable, tomorrow as a result of the weak frontal passage and
gusty winds.

Fog development is possible over south central Nebraska tonight
according to some high-res guidance members. Currently do not have
enough confidence to place a mention of this in the forecast as the
majority of guidance members do not indicate fog in southwest
Nebraska. That is about the only thing to watch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Warm and mostly dry conditions remain across the Central High
Plains region through early next week as the upper ridge persists
over the high plains region.

By late Saturday and Sunday, a short wave trough moving through
the southwest U.S. rides up the back side of the upper ridge and
cuts through the apex of the ridge as it moves across the Central
High Plains region. As a result, there is the potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday night.

Monday night the low pressure system that moved southeastward
along the coast of the Pacific Northwest and into the
Intermountain Region starts lifting out across the Rockies. As it
does so, a surface low center deepens over northeast Colorado in
response. The lows then begin to move out of the central Rockies
towards the northern Plains on Tuesday. The initial surface trough
passes through the forecast area early Tuesday with a cold front
expected to move through by late in the day on Tuesday. Expect
Isolated showers to develop on Tuesday with showers and
thunderstorms becoming more numerous through the day on Tuesday as
the cold front moves through. High temperatures that had been in
the upper 70s to lower 80 through the preceding days are expected
to drop into the 60s on Wednesday. Low temperatures that had been
in the upper 40s to lower 50s will drop into the middle 30s to
lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Surface high
pressure over the Great Plains is moving southwest into the area
in the form of a weak backdoor cold front. In addition, a ridge
of high pressure extends across the High Plains. These two highs
will result in clear skies throughout the next 24 hours and
beyond. Some high-resolution guidance indicates fog development
over south central Nebraska. It is possible fog approaches KMCK
but currently don`t see it reaching TAF site. No precipitation
should be anticipated. Light and variable winds likely until south
winds become dominant tomorrow morning as a lee trough develops
along the Rockies.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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