Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 182106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
206 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Across the region...many locales still seeing remnants of morning
mid/high cloud deck as a mix of sunny to partly sunny conditions
persists this afternoon. Temps have rebounded well from early
morning lows w/ a mix of 40s across the area with some localized
spots 50F or higher. The upper low associated with the cloud
cover continues a slow northeastward trek across the Plains
Region...with any precipitation focused east of the low away from
the CWA.

Going into tonight...upper low continues to trek eastward
slowly...with a lee-side trough coming off the Front Range in
tandem. Ample low level moisture focused in place between these
two systems will create foggy conditions this evening into mid
Thursday morning with the focus on locales east of highway 27.
Increased cloud cover in eastern zones due to proximity to upper
low will help in keeping temps up overnight. Overnight lows will
range from around 20F in far western zones w/ the rest of the CWA
tapering up thru the 20s as you push east. Some far east zones
under expected clouds could be around 30F.

For upper low continues its slow departure eastward
thru the day...models shift weak H5 ridge off the Front Range.
This combined with weak west/northwest flow and mostly
clear/sunny skies for most zones...will afford the CWA another
above normal day in terms high temps. Will be looking for a range
from the mid 40s to around 50F...warmest west. The portion of the
CWA remaining in the mid 40s will be most of the eastern third of
the CWA as cloud cover from exiting low will be slow to exit.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

The extended period is fairly busy with troughs and shortwave ridges
moving over the region quickly. As well as precipitation chances
Friday and Monday night into Tuesday.

To start the period on Thursday night, there is an exiting cut off
low pressure. As this exits to the northeast a shortwave ridge pushes
into the region and quickly pushes east by the early morning hours on
Friday. In return to the ridge moving east a trough begins to push
into the region from the west. This trough is expected to move
through the area during the day and start to form a cut off low
during the late afternoon. This cut off low will push north,
northeast over the region and will create some chances for
precipitation. The afternoon will see rain shower chances and then
will transition to snow showers as the night progresses. Current
guidance does not show a significant accumulation.

Saturday will bring another shortwave ridge as that cut off low
moves out of the region. This ridge will be short lived over the CWA
and will be out of the area by late morning. Again, as the ridge
moves out another closed low pushes into the region. This trough
looks to produce a closed low but, as of current guidance, moves
south of our area. Precipitation chances are low, with the potential
for some rain/snow in our southern counties if the closed low tracks
a little more north.

Sunday and Monday will be similar. The trough on Saturday will push
east and a ridge will start to build over the region on Sunday.
Meanwhile on the west coast another trough develops. By the end of
the day on Monday, that trough will start to force itself into the
CWA. Bringing with it southwest flow and moisture. Current guidance
shows a closed low forming just east of the Rockies and moving right
over the area. This will help with the development of rain and snow.
This same trend will continue into Tuesday before the trough
completely moves out of the region by the end of the day on Tuesday.
This is the best chance for precipitation during the period.

Wednesday, will be embedded under a very broad and deep trough that
is covering a good portion of the CONUS.

Temperatures during the period will be normal Friday through Monday
in the 40s during the day. Tuesday and Wednesday will see a cool
down into the 30s during the day due to a cold frontal passage and
the trough moving over the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1021 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru 03z Thursday w/ scattered high
clouds. From 03z-14z Thursday...3-6sm in light fog and scattered
low clouds. 14z Thursday onward...VFR w/ scattered mid clouds.
Winds WNW around 10kts thru 21z. 21z this afternoon thru 14z
Thursday...WSW around 10kts. 14z Thursday onward...WNW 5-10kts.

For KMCK...VFR conditions thru 02z Thursday w/ scattered high
clouds. From 02z-08z MVFR fog w/ 5sm visibility at times. From
08z-16z Thursday...IFR fog with visibility down to 2sm and
scattered low clouds. 16z Thursday onward...VFR with scattered low
clouds. Winds WSW around 5kts thru 08z Thursday...then
light/variable thru 16z w/ south winds around 5kts thereafter.




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