Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281914
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
114 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Lots to talk about today including increasing chance for rain and
snow tonight, snow and wind Saturday-Saturday night and the
potential for very strong winds Sunday.

Have added Wichita county to the Winter Storm Watch. Currently
expecting 4 to 7 inches in the watch area.

Today-tonight...an upper level low pressure area is forecast to
organize near the four corners area by 00z Saturday then drifts
south into west central/northwest New Mexico by 12z Saturday. For
our part of the world am expecting any precipitation this morning to
lift north along or north of the KS/NE border through 18z with
perhaps a few showers developing in the far south. A bit more
coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. Brunt
of the precipitation moves in from the southwest tonight with
highest pops/qpf along and south of the interstate. Rain is expected
to change over to snow for nearly all of the forecast area.
Northeast winds increase late this afternoon and continue through
tonight behind the cold front. Currently expecting 15 to 25 mph with
higher gusts. Tricky high temperature forecast and am aiming at
highs ranging from the mid to upper 40s along the KS/NE border to
around 60 far south. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday-Saturday night...the upper low is forecast to move nearly
due east into east central New Mexico through 00z Sunday then
northeast while deepening a bit near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle by
12z Sunday. Snow is expected to continue in the morning before
slightly warmer temperatures change it over to rain or a mix of the
two. North winds increase into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher
gusts, mainly along and south of the interstate. Snow quickly
redevelops during the night with north to northwest winds of 20 to
30 mph. High temperatures only in the mid 30s to low 40s (south to
north) with low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Sunday-Sunday night...upper low is forecast to intensify while
lifting northeast toward Kansas City by 00z Monday then toward Iowa
by 12z Monday. Precipitation chances decrease through the day
along and west of the CO/KS border with wraparound rain/rain
showers elsewhere. Precip chances continue to decrease overnight.
Main concern during this timeframe is the wind. MET/MAV guidance
winds are in the 25 to 40 mph range with higher gusts possible.
Will have to watch for possibility of a high wind watch if trends
continue. High temperatures warm into the low 40s to near 50 (east
to west). Low temperatures in the low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 114 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

For the extended period...the passage of the weekend storm off to
our east will allow the Tri State region to have a dry day ahead of
next system...set to affect the region by midweek. The passage of
the expected shortwave will bring a round of shower activity to the
region. By Wednesday night on into Friday...broad H5/H7 ridging
builds over the western half of the country setting the area up for
a warming trend by the end of next week.

On Monday...short-lived ridging over the area thru the day before
the arrival of the next system looks to afford the area msunny
conditions at best...and with WNW surface flow over the area...not
big rebound in area highs temps...with mid and upper 50s at best.

For Monday night on thru the day Wednesday...H5/H7 shortwave will
approach the region from the NW...swinging thru the area before
exiting east on Wednesday. Inverted surface trough does work out
ahead of the shortwave late Tuesday into Wednesday. Deeper
moisture/QPF does look to be focused more along the surface trough
and will limit overall QPF totals for the area as this system exits
east before bulk of mid level shortwave arrives into the CWA.
Overall QPF for this system will bring rainfall totals near 0.10-
0.30" and with lack of instability there is no mention of thunder in
to enhance any local totals. Temps during this period fairly steady
due to expected cloud cover. Looking for highs on Tuesday/Wednesday
from the upper 50s to lower 60s at best...off of overnight lows
mainly in the mid to upper 30s. Main p-type will be showers...w/
some spotty -sw in our far western zones in Kit Carson county w/ no
accum expected.

Going into Thursday and Friday...models showing warming trend is on
tap...as strong mid level ridging pushes eastward from the west
coast...nosing into the Plains region by Friday. Strong subsidence
associated with this ridge and surface ridging will give daytime
highs Thursday well into the upper 60s...and by next Friday 75-80F
is possible. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

COMPLICATED FORECAST OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF STRATUS
REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, IMPACTING BOTH THE KMCK AND KGLD
SITES. STRATUS EVENTUALLY SPREADS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, TIMING
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE TIMING. ONCE STRATUS
SPREADS SOUTHWEST, ANTICIPATE IFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF REMAINING
TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD WITH NO THREAT FOR KMCK. LATER THIS
EVENING, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. PRECIP TYPE WILL
INITIALLY BE RAIN BUT A CHANGE TO SNOW IS FORECAST. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM FOG, DRIZZLE, AND SNOW SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED, PARTICULARLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE SOUTH.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
     for KSZ013-027-041-042.

CO...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
     for COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RRH



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