Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 182320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Surface high pressure moves into the southern high plains with a lee
trough deepening along the Front Range during the day on Sunday. The
upper ridge over the Rockies moves east over the plains early Sunday
with a weak short wave moving through the upper flow across the high
plains by Sunday evening.  With near surface flow turning to a more
west southwesterly downslope direction and the upper ridge moving
east of the Rockies, a dry and warmer short term period is expected.
Highs will warm to around 60 on Sunday with RH values dipping into
the teens across mainly eastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Through Mon Night: Small amplitude shortwave energy moving ashore
the PAC NW Sun night will dig rapidly SSE through the northern
Rockies into the High Plains of western KS/OK late Monday night.
Expect dry conditions, a westerly breeze and above normal temps in
the mid/upper 60s in advance of shortwave energy approaching from
the NW. Winds will abruptly shift to the NNW/N and increase to 15-25
mph with sporadic gusts up to 30-35 mph late Mon evening/ night as
surface pressures rise in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave.
Lows Tue morning will be driven by cold advection and radiational
cooling, bottoming out in the upper 20s (eastern CO) to lower 30s

Tue-Sat: With a cooler airmass in place, expect near-normal highs in
the 50s on Tue. Dry conditions and a warming trend are expected the
remainder of the work week (Wed-Fri) with highs returning to the
mid/upper 60s as an upper level ridge (centered invof Baja CA)
amplifies and extends northeast across the Desert SW/4-Corners
region. DPVA attendant small amplitude shortwave energy tracking
rapidly east across the northern Rockies should help drive a dry
cold frontal passage through the Tri-State region Fri night,
dropping temperatures 12-15F (closer to normal) during the day Sat.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 420 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. Winds at
both terminals will begin from the northwest 11kts or less under a
clear sky. Winds slowly back to the west around 02z then southwest
by 14z at speeds under 10kts under a continued clear sky. During
the mid to late afternoon wind speeds increase a bit toward 12kts
from the southwest under increasing cirrus clouds.




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