Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291149
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO MAJOR ESTF CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION...SETTING UP THE CWA FOR
A NICE DAY. SOME TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED BASED ON LATEST
HOURLIES...OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL MOVING SLOWLY THRU THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. CLEARING/DRYING TREND SET TO ENSUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST. MODELS DO BRING DOWN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION. LATEST MODEL
RUNS DO HINT AT A BRIEF CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER THE
AREA BUT SHUTS OFF QUICKLY BY 12Z SATURDAY AS SYSTEM RUNS INTO THE
SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE DOES START THE DAY OFF ON
SATURDAY SHIFTING TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER STRONG
SYSTEM WORKS OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CLRING OUT BY 12Z MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND FOLLOWS SFC FRONT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. HIGHEST POPS CHANCES/BEST DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR TRW/RW WILL OCCUR SUN/SUN NGT AS UPPER TROUGH LEAVES THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGION FOR THE PLAINS. REST OF THE TIME FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE/SL CHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR TRW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPS AIDED BY STRONG WAA
DUE TO SFC RIDGING AHEAD OF EACH SUCCESSIVE TROUGH/SFC LOW.

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING. POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AROUND 90 DEGREES BY MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE IN
RESPONSE TO RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCT050-150. VCSH IS POSSIBLE AFT 06Z SATURDAY. WINDS WNW 5-15KTS
BECOMING NORTHWARD BY 15Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS...THEN SOUTHERLY BY
06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JN


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