Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260750
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A WIDE EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NEBRASKA...APPROACHING THE COLORADO BORDER.  BEHIND THE FRONT
CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVED IN WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING AND
VISIBILITIES DROPPING AS LOW AS A MILE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

AM EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER YUMA COUNTY AND FAR
NORTHWEST KIT CARSON/DUNDY COUNTIES BEFORE THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA.  DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATING FROM THE GROUND UP AND SOME
WEAK LIFT PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT...AM THINKING THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENS
ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL THEN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

TONIGHT THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH SNOWFALL MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE.  AS THE SNOWFALL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ANTICIPATE THERE TO
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS
THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL.  DUE TO THE BRIEF
NATURE OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...ANTICIPATE LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCUMULATION.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO EXTENDING OVER THE KS/NE LINE.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AND LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE ANTICIPATE A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL SETUP.  KEPT A FAIRLY BROAD
AREA OF SNOWFALL CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.  THIS BAND
WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNRISE AS THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS.

FRIDAY ANOTHER BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTOGENESIS NORTH THEN RETURNED
IT TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ANOTHER BAND OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP...MAIN QUESTION
IS WHERE EXACTLY WILL IT DEVELOP.  KEPT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF
HIGHER SNOWFALL CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.  WITHIN THE
FRONTOGENESIS THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR ZERO IN THE DENDRITIC
ZONE WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ALSO LOCATED THERE.  WITH A FAIRLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
ZONE...SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR OR MORE ARE VERY LIKELY
WITHIN THE BAND.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE BAND OF HEAVER SNOW WILL
HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA.

DURING THE AFTERNOON ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA INCREASES AND A
SECOND WEAKER BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
DEVELOP THERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS.  AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

BY SUNSET SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST UNDER 3 INCHES FROM
HILL CITY TO GOVE...TO 5 INCHES FROM GOODLAND TO MCCOOK ON WEST.
THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES UNDER THE BAND.

WOULD HAVE GONE TO 100 PERCENT FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT JUST DID
NOT QUITE HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO BASED ON THE VARIABILITY OF THE
FRONTOGENESIS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR AND LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SYSTEM
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING MOVES THROUGH.
THE BIGGER IMPACT HOWEVER WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS TO
TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

FOR BOTH SITES THRU 08Z THIS MORNING...3-6SM IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC005-015. AFT 08Z...
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3SM(WITH 1/2SM AFT 13Z- 14Z
FRIDAY THRU 00Z SAT)...THEN 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS BY
13Z FRIDAY NEAR OVC003 THEN LIFTING TO NEAR OVC010 BY 00Z
SATURDAY. WINDS NNW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AFT 13Z
FRIDAY...BUT BEFORE 00Z SAT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ001>004-013>015-027-028-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN


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