Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This morning through Sunday night)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows trough
in place across the central US, with main mid-upper level
circulation near central Nebraska. At the surface high pressure is
in place over northern Colorado, with a stalled front just
northeast of our CWA in Nebraska.

Trough transitions east of our region today, with H5 ridge building
across the Rockies an into the plains. Stratus may linger over our
eastern CWA today with light easterly flow near frontal zone. This
could limit daytime heating. Overall, highs will be near 60F with
clearing skies.

Weak shortwave troughs will be able to rotate through the region
within flow around northern axis of ridge, however a very deep dry
air mass will remain in place. Trend will be towards above normal
temperatures returning Friday (mid 70s) through the weekend
(around 80F Saturday). A shortwave trough rotating around the
northern extent of the ridge (near Canadian border) late Saturday
night-Sunday will kick a weak cold front south, however
temperatures will still remain above normal (mid 70s) and
conditions very dry.

Regarding Frost/Freeze Potential:

Temperatures are in the process of dropping to the low to mid 30s
early this morning and there are another 4 to 5hr of diurnal
cooling. CLouds/winds are playing a role in keeping temps up a
little for some parts of our CWA, but there is still plenty of
time and frost advisory looks to be working out as expected. Freeze
conditions are also still possible along/west of CO border.

Frost is possible across a lager part of the CWA tonight (Thu
night-Friday morning), but with air mass beginning to moderate
there is a little less certainty on freeze potential or frost
coverage. Tds will be very low, and favorable radiational
conditions could support another night of frost across the region,
so an advisory may need to be considered. With ongoing frost
advisory, I will hold off on issuance of another product at this
time. Frost may also be possible in river valleys Friday
night/Saturday night, but again further moderation of the air mass
across the region lowers confidence in frost coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Dry weather continues into the beginning of the extended before
precipitation chances briefly return and temperatures gradually

An upper ridge dominates the large scale pattern, progressing east
towards the Plains over the weekend and building on Monday. As a
result, dry conditions prevail. On Tuesday, moisture improves as
west/southwesterly flow develops over the region ahead of a low
pressure system advancing onto the Pacific coast. A shortwave trough
moves across the area, generating precipitation chances Tuesday
night. Westerly flow aloft and dry weather return to the High Plains
on Wednesday as the disturbance passes to the east. There are still
discrepancies with midweek guidance, so will continue to monitor how
things play out as next week approaches.

High temperatures slightly decrease from the mid 70s to low 80s on
Sunday to the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. Lows are mainly in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 513 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at KGLD through the TAF period.
Current trends in obs/satellite and short range guidance have
lowered confidence in IFR or fuel alternate (1500 ft) cigs at KMCK
and now favor prevailing VFR this morning. I still can`t rule out
brief drops below 3000 ft as stratus is lingering just east of the
terminal and I will continue to handle this possibility with a
TEMPO group. Winds at both terminals will remain below 12kt with
NW winds shifting to the south or becoming light and variable
after sunset (around 00Z).


Issued at 202 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

A very deep dry air mass and deep dry adiabatic mixing each
afternoon from Friday through Saturday will support RH values
dropping near or below 15 percent. However, weak gradient and lack
of winds aloft limit potential for critical fire weather
conditions. If there was a day to monitor it would be Saturday as
gradient does begin to increase slightly ahead of approaching cold
front. Guidance is still keeping wind gusts below 25 mph Saturday
afternoon, so no fire weather highlights are currently


KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for

CO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092.

NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ079.



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