Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210410
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
910 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Main issues will be low temperatures tonight and wind chill
temperatures through Wednesday morning. Temperatures struggled to
climb very much with the coldest highs in the northwest half where
the snowfield is located. Surface ridge moves in during the night so
will have a lengthy period of little to no winds and low dewpoints.

A caveat is the model output showing a batch of mid and high level
moisture. Based on satellite trends, this is looking overdone. So am
going to take the coldest guidance and drop of a few degrees with
the northwest half having subzero readings. The winds will not be
very strong but the combination of the wind speeds and temperatures
I have in there is yield wind chill temperatures near to or colder
than advisory criteria. So will be hoisting a wind chill advisory
over the northwest half from mid evening tonight to mid morning
Wednesday.

Look to a decent amount of sun. Surface will begin moving off to
the east which will bring in recycled cold air. However, it will
be blowing off of dry ground. The guidance blend was pretty cold,
and went with.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Southwest upper level flow will persist through Saturday when a
stronger short wave trough will move through, then dry westerly
flow behind the trough. Currently the upper level short wave
trough looks to move through quick enough Friday night and
Saturday to produce only a couple inches of snow. However theta-e
lapse rates will be near or below 0 in the snowfall. If this
continues to be the case by the time Friday night/Saturday arrive,
snowfall amounts will need be to increased, despite the snow
moving through fairly quickly.

Aside from the first part of the weekend, the other timeframe of
interest will be Wednesday night.  Currently the forecast is dry for
this night.  However latest data suggests the potential for freezing
drizzle.  There are two factors that greatly limit confidence of
freezing drizzle occurring.

The first is the small amount of lift that occurs during the night.
The freezing drizzle event in late December had more lift than
Wednesday night, which is what lowers confidence of this occurring.
However with a saturated environment above the surface, not much
lift is needed to create drizzle.  So have moderate confidence there
will be enough lift to form freezing drizzle.  Currently the best
lift/saturation is east of Highway 83.

The second factor limiting confidence is the saturated layer is very
close to the -10C line, so almost cold enough to support snow
instead of drizzle.  If the saturated layer deepens further, or
cools more, the odds of snow forming instead of drizzle go up.
Confidence of precipitation type for Wednesday night, should any
occur, is low.

Temperatures will warm during the period, with the warmest day on
Tuesday as the jet stream slides slightly further north.  However,
looking out past the forecast period, more cold air looks likely for
the latter half of next week as an upper level short wave trough
deepens over the Rockies early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 905 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

For KGLD, vfr conditions through about 02z. After 03z low clouds
move in from the south producing mvfr cigs. Could be some
visibility restrictions as well with possibly light precipitation but
this far out will keep it out of the forecast. Winds generally
variable around 5kts through 14z then increase and possibly gust
near 20kts during the late morning through early afternoon hours.
For tomorrow evening winds steady from the southeast near 10kts.

For KMCK, vfr conditions through about 03z. After 04z low clouds
move in from the south producing mvfr cigs. Could be some
visibility restrictions as well with possibly light precipitation
but this far out will keep it out of the forecast. Winds generally
variable around 5kts through 17z then east or east-southeast
around 7kts through the rest of the period.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Wednesday for
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST Wednesday for COZ090>092.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Wednesday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99



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