Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 140800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Issued at 1107 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Extended severe thunderstorm watch through 05z for Norton and
Graham counties to account for cluster of severe storms which will
be moving in from Nebraska. Storms may clip eastern part of Red
Willow County as well.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies are mainly sunny
to mostly sunny with temperatures ranging in the 80s. A general
southerly flow resides over the area as well with the region lying
ahead of a lee-side trough again over the Front Range.

For the rest of the afternoon and on into the evening hours...a
similar situation to wx from yesterday will occur. Lee-side trough
does sit over the Front Range with another shortwave coming over the
Rockies. The main difference from yesterday will be the fact that
less cloud cover at sunrise this morning...has allowed for the
entire area to show a marketed increase in instability which will
aid in the development of strong to severe t-storms...especially
when the shortwave works off the Rockies. Regional radar is already
showing convective activity over portions of central and southern
Colorado...which has to move eastward and will thus tap into the
highly unstable airmass over the CWA. As with yesterday...the main
threats will be large hail...damaging winds and heavy rain. There is
again an outside chance for a tornado to form as well. With
this...the SPC does have the entire CWA in a Slight Risk for severe
into the evening hours.

After midnight precip is expected to taper down...which will be
followed by the development of patchy fog that will carry into the
mid morning hours Monday. For the rest of Monday...H5 ridging over
the region during the day will temper any development of trw thru
much the day.

For temps...looking for overnight lows to drop into upper 50s thru
the mid 60s...warmest east. Daytime highs Monday will peak into the
85-90F range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Showers and thunderstorms persist through the long term with below
to near normal temperatures.

The best opportunity for precipitation during this extended period
is on Thursday. A weak cold front nudges into the area from the
north early in the morning with moisture and instability returning
to the region throughout the day. Additionally, a disturbance
travels across the region through the zonal flow aloft. This
setup generates shower and thunderstorm chances throughout
Thursday, with the best chances in the evening.

The aforementioned cold front lingers near the area heading towards
the weekend. On Friday, a shortwave trough pushes across the
northern and central Plains, keeping slight to low chance PoPs in
the forecast. Drier air moves into the region over the weekend as
upper ridging builds in behind the trough. This will limit showers
and thunderstorms, with only spotty slight chances remaining.

High temperatures are generally in the 80s throughout the period
with a few locations reaching the low 90s on Sunday. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

At KGLD...VFR expected through the TAF period. Scattered
thunderstorms will move into the area Monday night, but not enough
confidence that the terminal will be directly impacted to mention
at this time.

At KMCK...there is a chance that thunderstorms will back build
into the area overnight associated with a cluster of storms moving
south. However, current radar trends suggest storms will stay just
to the east so will not mention for now. The rest of the
overnight, some patchy fog may develop towards dawn with high dew
points in the area, briefly reducing visibility and ceilings.
Conditions should improve to VFR by mid morning. Scattered
thunderstorms will move into the area Monday night, but not enough
confidence that the terminal will be directly impacted to mention
at this time.




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