Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 082052
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016
Issued at 1007 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016
Just completed an update. With very cold start, some snow cover,
and strong inversion...it looks like the northwest half of my area
will be a little colder than previously expected. So lowered high
temperatures around 3 degrees in that area. So adjusted the winds
through tomorrow based on the latest guidance.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016
NW flow is in place across the Central High Plains, with a 1042mb
surface high pressure over our CWA associated with arctic air mass
Regarding wind chills this morning: Most locations within
advisory/warning have dropped near zero or below zero, and wind
chills have been in the -15F to -30F range at times this morning.
Decision was made to add Norton, Gove, and Sheridan counties to
current advisory based on obs near or already below wind chill
Westerly zonal flow builds back over the Central Rockies and Central
High Plains with lee troughing reestablishing itself. Surface high
pressure slides east in response to this changing pattern late
tonight with southerly flow developing. This pattern will favor dry
conditions and a warming trend. Snow pack will have an influence on
temps and surface dewpoints in the early periods, but should
disappear rather quickly on Friday when WAA gets underway from the
Today-Tonight: Surface high pressure slowly slides east and today
should see below normal with snow pack and arctic air in place.
Highs will struggle to reach the lower 20s in some areas, and
western locations likely won`t warm out of the teens despite sunny
skies. High clouds increase tonight and insulation combined with
shifting flow in the lower levels should result in lows being warmer
than this morning by 5-10F.
Friday-Saturday: Moderation of air mass over the plains continues
with highs above normal by Saturday (around 50F in the west). A weak
shortwave trough begins to approach the region Saturday night, along
with a weak cold front. This could bring minimal chances for light
precip to our far northwest by late Saturday night. Due to track and
dry layer entrenched over our CWA, confidence is not high that we
would see more than flurries or a few light snow showers.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016
Dry conditions start off the long term period, followed by a couple
opportunities for some light snow for mainly the northern portion of
the forecast area.
Northwesterly flow aloft prevails at the start of the period. The
arctic air mass impacting the High Plains slides further east and
warmer air surges north into the region Friday night. This allows
for a decent warm up on Saturday ahead of our next shortwave.
A disturbance heads towards the area late Saturday as broad, upper
zonal flow develops. This shortwave generates chances for light snow
Saturday night into Sunday morning north of Interstate 70. Moisture
continues to look limited, so still am not anticipating much as this
wave moves through. Drier weather returns Sunday night, with
slightly warmer temperatures on Monday ahead of the next front
A cold front traverses the High Plains Monday night and arctic air
spreads into the region, dropping temperatures once again through
midweek. Will need to monitor how cold the area will get as model
discrepancies are better resolved. There is another chance for light
snow Tuesday night, generally for the northern zones, with little
accumulation at this time. A trough moves through the westerly flow
into the western CONUS during the latter half of the week.
The warmest temperatures of the period will be on Saturday, with
highs in the 40s to low 50s, followed by a drop into the 30s and 40s
on Sunday and Monday. Tuesday through Thursday will be colder, with
highs currently forecast in the 20s and 30s. Lows should stay in the
teens to low 20s Friday through Monday nights before we see a dip
back down to around 10 degrees Tuesday night and Wednesday night
when the arctic air sets in.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1028 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016
Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Light west to
north winds will become variable during the afternoon then shift
to the south to southeast at 6 to 11 knots.