Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
712 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Issued at 712 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Based on the current trend of the shower activity circulating
around the low south of the Tri State Region...have opted to cut
back on pops for the evening hrs...focusing on extreme southern
and south eastern zones. With current temps above
freezing...light rain will be main p-type w/ some light snow
showers on the extreme northern reach towards 05z Sunday. No other
changes at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four
corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the
Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. A surface low is centered over
the Oklahoma Panhandle with easterly gradient north of this over
our CWA.

This afternoon-Tonight: As upper low moves across the
southern plains a weak front or surface trough axis will shift
over our CWA.Track of upper low and position of main surface low
places main axis of forcing and better moisture advection well
south of our CWA.Low level flow will actually pull drier air into
the region as large scale forcing and mid-upper level moisture
increases. This limits potential for measurable precipitation. I
kept slight chance PoPs across the southern half of our CWA in
place mainly for evening period to cover the minimum potential.
Confidence in more than sprinkles/flurries/virga is low, and any
measurable precipitation would only amount to a few hundredths of
liquid equivalent. Radiational cooling will be limited tonight as
a result of increasing mid-upper level cloud cover, so overnight
lows may remain near 30 (particularly in our southeast).

Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly
cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to
clearing skies and good mixing. BL winds do increase and will
support daytime gusts in the 25-35 mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

The main forecast concern in the long term period is the
possibility of precipitation on Tuesday into early Wednesday

Consistency between models is still lacking as is run to run
consistencies within models, so have tried to use the forecast
blender with the Superblend along with a blend towards
surrounding office preferences to resolve the forecast.

Monday will remain warm and dry across the central high plains with
a short wave ridge aloft moving across the central and southern
plains and a surface lee trough deepening along the front range.
The upper short wave ridge moves east on Monday night with a broad
and deep trough carving out over the western U.S. and the next low
pressure center to affect the forecast area spinning east of the
Rockies and moving across Nebraska during the day on Tuesday.
The upper low lifts quickly into the midwest during the day on
Wednesday. Model solutions place the surface low somewhere across
Kansas or southern Nebraska on Tuesday before it also moves
quickly into the midwest by Wednesday.

With the quick progression of this system across the central high
plains region, expect a limited amount of precipitation to occur
as a mix of rain and snow with little snow accumulation on Tuesday
and Tuesday evening before it quickly diminishes after midnight
Tuesday night. Temperatures will decrease through the day on
Tuesday with cooler than average temperatures expected on
Wednesday and a gradual warm up through the remainder of next


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 418 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Conditions...VFR with scattered mid/high clouds.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........ENE around 10kts thru 04z-06z Sunday...then becoming
NW around 10kts. By 14z-15z Sunday...NNW 10-20kts. From 22z
Sunday onward...NW around 10kts.




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