Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1125 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1125 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Less cold temperatures expected tonight with readings ranging from
around zero across the east to near 10 across the west. For
Wednesday 850mb temperatures warm about 21F to 28F across the
area. The coolest temperatures will be across the east with highs
in the upper 30s to around 40 while across the west readings near
50 are expected. May see a few high clouds from time to time
otherwise it will be clear.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Friday: SW flow should be in place ahead of trough deepening over
the Western US. Another shortwave trough moving out of the northern
Rockies is shown by some guidance to kick a cold front south towards
our CWA by Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening. While the actual
passage might not be until later this could have the impact of
shifting the position of the surface low further south and
complicating high temps on Friday. Good WAA ahead of this should
support highs in the 60s, but if this holds up just enough we could
see highs near 70F.

Saturday-Sunday: We are continuing to monitor the potential for a
winter storm over our CWA Saturday night and Sunday as the trough
over the western US eventually swings into the plains and closes
off. Timing still favors the Saturday night-Sunday periods, but
there are differences in the evolution of this that lowers
confidence on potential moderate snow/blowing snow. At this time,
worst case scenario would be advisory level snow amounts north and a
brief window for blowing snow. Position of track and position of
H7/H5 closed center will determine track of elevated deformation
zone (heavier snow), and this is still quite uncertain at this
range. Models may also be overestimating warming on Sunday, as
precip/cloud cover in this colder post front air mass may keep highs
in the lower 30s.

Monday: Upper low should be east of the Central High Plains, with
shortwave ridging building back in the CWA. Current consensus shows
slightly warmer temps to near seasonal normals (40s highs/teens
lows) and dry conditions. At this range and with uncertainty on snow
amounts (which could impact this day as well), I stayed in line with


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 930 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. KMCK will
see winds variable at speeds 5kts or less through the period under
a clear sky. For KGLD light and variable winds at taf issuance
become southerly around 6kts by 00z. For the remainder of the taf
period winds slowly veer to the south-southwest near 11kts by 04z
then southwest under 10kts by 14z. Little if any cloudiness




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