Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202240
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
440 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies are currently
mostly sunny to sunny with temperatures ranging widely in the upper
50s to near 70F. Winds are meandering from the NW to the NE across
the area.

Decent day across the area this afternoon is going to translate into
rainy conditions beginning late tonight...lasting into the daytime
hours Friday. The upper level system which models have tracked for
the past several days is still looking to track SSE over eastern
CO/western KS after 06z Friday. Light to moderate rainfall will
begin to develop and overspread the CWA from west to east as a
result.

The trend in the track of the system is now to traverse the region
as an open wave...closing off east of the CWA late Friday. Bulk of
QPF is expected to hit the CWA during the day Friday w/ shortwave
over western Kansas. Inverted surface trough will accompany the
passage of the upper system. The ESE flow ahead of the surface
feature will thus set best upslope/orographic potential over mainly
western zones...in particular NE CO. The latest track and model
guidance puts QPF totals ranging from 0.30-0.40" in eastern locales
up to almost an inch from central and western locales. Some minor
instability along southern tier zones on Friday as system
passes...so mention of thunder is in.

For temps...extensive increasing cloud cover with the approach of
the weather system will give the region overnight lows tonight in
the lower to mid 40s. Minor uptick in temps will translate to
daytime highs w/ mainly 40s at best. Some far east locales could hit
near 50F before clouds/rain become major factor.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The first half of the long term period appears to remain largely
dry before precipitation chances return next week. The region sees a
warming trend through Monday, followed by cooling temperatures
through the end of the period.

Rain showers dissipate Friday night across the area as the upper low
slides into eastern Kansas and Missouri. A weak ridge builds into
the High Plains over the weekend, bringing dry weather to the
forecast. Clearing skies and warming temperatures are also a result.

There is the potential for frost Saturday night into Sunday morning
with lows in the low/mid 30s, light winds, and clear skies overhead.
Will have to monitor low temperature forecast in the upcoming days.
Expect south winds to strengthen Sunday afternoon as lee troughing
develops along the Rockies, with gusts near 30 mph possible.

A system tracks across the northern Plains on Monday, generating
precipitation north of the region near the Dakotas. The cold front
with this system begins to push through the area in the afternoon,
but dry conditions should persist due to the dry air mass in place.

Zonal flow develops aloft on Tuesday, with a disturbance pushing
from Colorado towards Kansas Tuesday night. This wave produces the
next brief opportunity for rain across the forecast area. As this
disturbance passes the region on Wednesday, a shortwave trough forms
over the Rockies. The trough gradually moves into the central
Plains, and precipitation chances persist from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday. Guidance disagrees on how to handle this system,
so will refine the forecast as differences are resolved.

Temperatures climb from the 50s/low 60s on Saturday to the 70s/low
80s on Monday. Then cooler air filters into the region and highs
fall into the 60s/low 70s for the rest of the period. Lows are
colder to start out the long term, with mid/upper 30s Friday night
and low/mid 30s Saturday night. This is followed by lows in the 40s
through Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 440 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017

For KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about
12z with winds from the southeast near 10kts. From 13z-22z a
weather disturbance moves in bringing mvfr/ifr cigs/vis with light
to occasionally moderate rain. Winds generally from the east
around 15kts with some higher gusts. After 23z cigs and vis
expected to improve to vfr with winds from the northeast around
11kts. It should be noted the NAM model brings sub vfr conditions
to the terminal much faster and will be monitored during the
evening for possible updates.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 12z
with winds from the northeast and east 10kts or less. After 13z
mvfr cigs and possibly vis move in with light to occasionally
moderate rain, winds remain from the east near 11kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99



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