Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 040400
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON EASTERN COLORADO. WIND
CHILLS WILL DIP BELOW MINUS 15 DEGREES MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS ALSO POSSIBLY SEEING THESE WIND
CHILLS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE 5 TO 12
MPH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOR THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA WITH SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE INCH. SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WEAK...WITH BETTER
FORCING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME. REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...LEAVING THE CENTRAL CONUS UNDER BROAD
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY.
EVEN WITHOUT THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY MELTING SNOW
FIELD THERE COULD BE A LARGE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT AS DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW FURTHER EAST SEND COLD SURGES AIR SOUTHWARD. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THESE SHALLOW COLD
AIR MASSES COULD EXTEND. HOWEVER THINK THE SNOW FIELD WILL BE THE
BIGGEST PLAYER IN THE TEMPERATURES AND PREFER TO ERR ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BEGIN THE PERIOD FROM THE
WEST NEAR 11KTS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 17Z THEN BACK TO
THE WEST AT 6KTS BY 22Z. AFTER 00Z WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SKC TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE SKC WITH WINDS FROM
THE WEST NEAR 10KTS FOR THE ONE LINE TAF. SIMILAR TO KGLD MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001-013-027.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99


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