Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 120910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
210 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Issued at 449 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

The Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire as there is no
longer an opportunity to meet criteria with temperatures
decreasing, RH values increasing, and winds diminishing through
the remainder of the evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Through Tonight: Vigorous mixing (SFC-750 mb) associated with
unseasonably warm temperatures (mid 50s to lower 60s) and an
enhanced MSLP/height gradient associated with shortwave energy
digging SSE through central NE/eastern KS (along the western
periphery of a separate shortwave progressing ESE through IL/IN)
is resulting in sustained NW winds of 25-35 mph with frequent
gusts to 45-55 mph (strongest in western KS/southwest NE) this
afternoon, along with critical fire weather conditions. Expect
winds to decrease to 15-25 knots AOA sunset with loss of
insolation /onset of the nocturnal inversion/ and gradual
weakening of the MSLP gradient, further weakening to 10-15 knots
or less overnight as surface high pressure builds into the Tri-
State region from the NW. Expect lows ranging from the upper teens
to low/mid 20s, coldest in valleys (w/respect to surrounding terrain)
/low- lying areas/.

Tuesday: Surface high pressure building into the region overnight
will shift into TX during the day Tue as the shortwave
progressing through KS/OK this evening digs rapidly SE into the
GOMEX and subsidence in the wake thereof shifts from the southern
plains to the gulf coast region. Expect light/variable winds
becoming WSW/SW at 10-15 knots by late afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s, warmest eastern CO.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

No real changes in the extended period from the last few write ups.
Dry condition and above normal temperatures will continue into next
week with a few breezy days included. Even though the models are
showing a couple of upper level troughs, with their associated
surface fronts, moving across the region over the weekend; the
environment is too dry to support any significant impact other than
an increase in cloud cover.

Afternoon high temperatures will maintain in the upper 50s to lower
60s throughout the period with the exception of Sunday, which looks
to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s due to frontal passage.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions will continue across the central high plains region
through the TAF period with light winds varying between northwest
and southwest.




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