Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
519 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...much of the area
remains under partly sunny conditions as cloud cover from exiting
low continues a slow trudge east northeast. The current veil of
clouds still has kept temps well in check with 40s continuing for
most locales...and only a few spots have cracked the 50F mark thus

Local radar still showing light rain showers over portions of the
area...mostly confined now to NE portions of the region...but
coverage continues to decrease and is in tandem with lifting cloud
shield. Will keep mention of light showers for remainder of the
afternoon as a result.

Going into tonight...trend for the CWA for the period is for
clearing with decreasing winds as high pressure builds over the
area...sliding east towards morning. With locales seeing clearing
tonight...and the approach of surface ridging and slackening expect temps to drop into the upper 30s for overnight
lows. There could be a few spot locales near 36F...and have
mentioned patchy frost. The overall coverage is less than 50% only
lasting a couple have decided NOT to go with a Frost

For Sunday...the chance for more precipitation returns for the day
as an inverted surface trough shifts from the desert SW into the
Southern Plains. with high pressure east of the region...a SSE
surface flow works into the area...especially for SW zones. This
area will be the focus for any thunderstorm activity. Minimal
instability for the area(Kit Carson/Greeley/Wichita) will keep
strong/severe storms down. Enough moisture works up along the west
side of the front to expand shower potential into central areas.
Looking for daytime highs to range from the upper 60s to low
70s...warmest in the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Upper low moves into the Great Lakes region on Sunday night and into
Monday. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue
through the day on Monday, decreasing in coverage during the
overnight hours into Tuesday as the remaining trough deepens and
moves slowly eastward. There is very little instability with this
system thus thunderstorm coverage will be isolated.

High pressure builds into the Great Basin as we head into Thursday
with dry weather expected during the first half of the day and slgt
chc of thunderstorms during the afternoon situated along a dryline
that will move eastward across the CWA. A more significant setup is
taking shape for Friday afternoon, as CAPE values build into the
2500 to 3000 J/Kg range (GFS) along the KS/CO and CO/NE borders.
There will be 30 to 50 knots of 0-6km shear in place thus when
combined with the CAPE and an approaching dryline, severe
thunderstorm chances increase substantially compared to previous
days. A similar setup will remain in place for Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 519 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Low clouds near KMCK will quickly dissipate with loss of surface
heating this evening. VFR will then prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the remainder of the TAF period as the upper low lifts out
of the area.




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