Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231906
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED AS CLOUDS DISSIPATED AND MIXING INCREASED. HAVE REACHED
GUSTS OF 41 KNOTS AND 44 KNOTS AT KITR AND KGLD RESPECTIVELY.
ALSO NOTED REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE TIME OF THESE WIND GUSTS
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. THEREFORE...INSERTED BLOWING DUST INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WIND GUSTS 38 KNOTS AND ABOVE. THIS COVERS AN AREA
ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO COLBY
AND LEOTI KANSAS. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS/WIND GUSTS AS
WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN 2-3 HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN AND DAYTIME MIXING IS REDUCED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT BETTER MIXING AND SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. HAVE UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LOW DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ENDING OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. LITTLE...IF ANYTHING...DEPICTED ON CURRENT
RADAR DATA WAS REACHING THE GROUND THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES
FOR A WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT ARE NEAR ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE STRONGER BUT METARS SHOW LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND CLOUD BASES AROUND 9KFT. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING SHOULD END BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. PLAN A SLIGHT CHANCE
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS
WILL BE NIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.

A FEW SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW TONIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER, POPS WILL BE NIL DURING THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S TODAY AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER 40S MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE VARIANCES ON TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES DESPITE "SMALLER" VARIANCE ON
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. CURRENT CONSENSUS FAVORS DRY
CONDITIONS...SO AT LEAST THAT PART OF THE FORECAST HAS SOME LEVEL
OF CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ON THE OTHER HAND
CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM.

AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY ECMWF/GFS/GEM SHOW
RISING HEIGHTS...SO THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASING TEMP TREND DURING
THE DAY WED. GFS/GEM DO HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
FLOW ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ECMWF
WEDNESDAY DOES SHOW A GOOD RETURN WITH SOME WAA BY THE AFTERNOON SO
THERE SHOULD BE MILD TEMPS AT LEAST FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS. AT THE
SAME TIME ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN OTHER GUIDANCE LIMITING HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE AVERAGE MEX/ECE DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS OF 10F IS ACTUALLY THE
SMALLEST IN THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR OUR CWA...WHICH STILL IS
NOT VERY GOOD.

THE LARGEST VARIANCE OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 00Z
GEM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING FALLING HEIGHTS AND AN ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING
INTO THE PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN HOLD ONTO RISING HEIGHTS AND
DELAYS ANY POTENTIAL ARCTIC INTRUSIONS UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE WHEN ECMWF IS SHOWING RISING
HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH TEMP DIFFERENCES
OF 30-40F BETWEEN ECE/MEX STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND OF 10-20F ON SATURDAY. COMBINE THIS LARGE SPREAD WITH
THE FACT THAT 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ESSENTIALLY SWAPPED PLACES
BETWEEN WHICH MODEL IN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FENCE AND WHICH MODEL
IS ON THE COLD SIDE THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS YOU CAN TELL...THERE ISNT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW TO PUT WEIGHT TOWARDS EITHER SOLUTION.
BEYOND BUMPING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S IN OUR WEST ON WED...I WAS NOT
COMFORTABLE STRAYING FROM COLLABORATIVE CONSENSUS WHICH FAVORS THE
MEAN AND KEEPS FORECAST IN LINE WITH SEASONAL CLIMATE FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
VIRGA/LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ANY
PRECIPITATION IS WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS WEAKEN BY EVENING AND BACK
NORTHWEST/WEST OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BUT LIKELY WILL NOT REACH
SPEEDS OBSERVED THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. OFF AND ON MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH THE BREAKS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



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