Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020548
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREAKS IN THE STRATUS/CUMULUS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AT 50 DEGREES. WINDS ARE NORTH AT 10-20
MPH...GUSTING 35 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA...ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT
EAST. AS THIS HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION COULD SPREAD OVER LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOUTH OF US-40. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIGHT
IN NATURE...AMOUNTING TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WEATHER
CONCERN OF HIGHEST INTEREST IS THE CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE. NEAR
TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS
LESS THAN 36 DEGREES. WITH WINDS DECREASING...FROST DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF A NORTON KANSAS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS LINE.
A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST COLORADO. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE PASSED ALONG FROM THE MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED BECAUSE THE TRI-STATE REGION
IS NOT QUITE IN THE GROWING SEASON. RECENT SNOWFALL FURTHER
COMPLICATES THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. FOR
THESE REASONS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING BUT
DID MENTION PATCHY/AREAS FROST IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TOMORROW...MUCH WARMER AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. LOCAL OBSERVERS INDICATE SNOW HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MELTED SO
AFTER TODAY`S WARMER AND BREEZY WEATHER...DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS FROM A REMAINING SNOW FIELD. NO PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...TODAYS NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND GEM MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM/ECWMF IN BRINGING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUICK
CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. MAY SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
LOWS 30 TO 35 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO EAST. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH THURSDAY AND MOVING ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR OUR PART OF THE WORLD THE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS
INITIALLY TO OUR WEST MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF BRING
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY EAST ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS REMOVED
PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH I SUPPOSE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED
TO THE MID LEVELS AND MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND. SOMETHING FOR LATER
FORECASTS TO WATCH. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY FLIRT
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH MID 40S
TO LOW 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THURSDAYS HIGHS LOOK GOOD...FRIDAYS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE 20C TO 25C RANGE (ABOUT 5-
10F WARMER) COMPARED TO THURSDAY. MEX GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
I SUPPOSE THE CLOUDS AND THE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FULL MIXING AND MEX GUIDANCE VALUES SO FOR
NOW WILL KEEP IT AS IS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOR THIS MODEL RUN DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
NEVADA/CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER AREA. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
TO THE WEST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS BETTER POPS OVER THE AREA WHERE
DRIER AIR EXISTS AND LOWER POPS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO
WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT PRESENT TIME AND KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (WEST
TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST). THIS
SEEMS A BIT COOL COMPARED TO 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 21-25C RANGE
WHICH UNDER FULL MIXING SUPPORT READINGS ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
AND CLOSER TO THE MEX GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW MOISTURE IN THE
850-500MB LAYER COVERS THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH
WOULD NOT SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS AND EXTENDED
FORECAST PROCEDURE HANDLED THIS MUCH BETTER. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 40S TO MID 50S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
SHOULD AT LEAST REACH ADVERTISED READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
WEST...LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST READINGS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. CLOUDS COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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