Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 012021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR POP-UP SHOWERS CURRENTLY SHOWING ON
LOCAL RADAR. LOOKING FOR DISSIPATION AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AS SUCH. SOME CLOUD COVER ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL TO
ACCT FOR -RW...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

ANOTHER NICE NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. MODELS DO
CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...AND WITH THIS A SHIFT...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH QUICKER WARMUP TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F.

GOING INTO SATURDAY...MAIN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING EAST INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT WAA INTO THE AREA WITH
850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +22C TO +27C. THIS SCENARIO WILL PUT THE
FORECAST AREA ON TAP FOR NEAR 90F IN MANY LOCALES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK
700 MB SHORTWAVES TO WORK SOUTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT
CURRENT MODEL TRAJECTORY KEEPS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
EAST...BUT WITH GOOD CHANCE AREAS SEEING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE DAY THOUGH...WITH FOCUS OVER THE COUNTIES OF
(NORTON...GRAHAM...DECATUR KS AND HITCHCOCK...RED WILLOW IN
NEBRASKA).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A 590 DM UPPER HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH ULTIMATELY GETS FLATTENED OUT BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA AND A TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY.
THUS...THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
WITH LATTER PERIODS A BIT COOLER AND ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL SHOTS
AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
IN THE NEAR TERM /SUN-MON/ BUT IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION IN OUR AREA ARE MINIMAL. BY TUESDAY THE GFS
DEVELOPS AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WHICH IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST EC AND WHICH LOOKS SOMEWHAT SPURIOUS. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW
BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT MUCH FURTHER NORTH IN THE
DAKOTAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND CLOSER TO 300 MB JET WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
PLAYED DOWN POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...LEANING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION.

FOR WED-FRI...GUIDANCE INDICATES A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING THRU MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT SO HAVE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY DURING LAST HALF OF EXTENDED. FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE L-M 20S C WILL CORRELATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF SKC WITH
SOME HIGH CLDS FEW-SCT150-300. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WNW TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY 12Z SATURDAY. GLD WILL HAVE MORE SSW WINDS 5-10KTS BY
12Z TOMORROW...AND MCK WILL SEE MAINLY SSE BY THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN






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