000
FXUS63 KGLD 251205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
605 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER NEBRASKA PUSHED INTO THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. ALSO STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. SO ADDED PATCHY FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 15Z. ALSO LOWERED THE MAXES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW
HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER RIDGE HAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST LEAVING THE
AREA UNDER A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SMALL
SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THIS FLOW. COMPLEX UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. FRONT HAS MOVE BACK
EAST OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT...AIR MASS IS MUCH
WARMER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND MUCH MORE MOIST...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM
AND GFS. MODELS DID FINE AT MID LEVELS WITH PERHAPS THE CANADIAN
DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST AND ABOUT THE SAME ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. MOST OF THE MODELS WERE TERRIBLE ON THE QPF FIELD BY 06Z AND
WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH IT AND WERE ALSO TOO BROAD WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. THE GFS ENDED UP BEING THE CLOSEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT BOTH AREAS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE ONCE AGAIN SETS
UP NEAR/OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA. MODEL DATA HAS PULLED THIS
FEATURE FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST. PROBLEM WILL BE WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND RATHER STRONG EML.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE AND SHORTWAVE DETAILS AND CONSEQUENTLY
MAKE THE AREAS OF BEST INSTABILITY AND QPF IN DIFFERENT PLACES. SO
PULLED BACK THE AFTERNOON CHANCES TO THE WEST AND THEN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT GOOD LIFT FROM SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END BY 12Z. MODELS
WERE COOL YESTERDAY DESPITE HAVING CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING RATHER MILD THIS MORNING DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING STRONG. SO KEPT OR WARMED UP MAXES. REFER TO FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR A RATHER COMPLICATED FIRE WEATHER SITUATION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AGAIN MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF LIFT
ALOFT AND WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURES AND INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE NORTHEAST HALF WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. LEFT
THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY ALONG AND RAISED POPS DURING THE NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF SURFACE DIFFERENCES...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW WARM
IT GETS. KEPT THE MAXES ABOUT THE SAME OR A LITTLE WARMER
WIDESPREAD 90S EXPECTED WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM SURFACE TO
ALOFT...EACH WITH MAJOR CONSEQUENCES TO THE FORECAST. THAT PLUS THE
FACT THAT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STRONG EML COULD LIMIT OR
EVEN STOP CONVECTION LEADS ME TO MAKE NO CHANGES IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. CURRENT GRIDS CONCENTRATE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...
ALBEIT NOT TOO HIGH...IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS DOES MAKE SENSE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL CONCEPT THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING. HOWEVER...IT COULD END UP BEING MUCH DRIER OR
WETTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM ALTHOUGH THAT COULD END UP BEING OFF IF THE
COOLER SOLUTIONS END UP BEING RIGHT. IF WARMER SOLUTIONS WORK OUT...
IT COULD BE POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA COULD GET CLOSE TO 100.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL EJECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE CWA AS IT MOVES
EAST. THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO AGREE ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF
THIS TROUGH/UPPER LOW. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND PROGRESSES IT MUCH
MORE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. INSTABILITY IS GOOD AND MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE EACH DAY...WITH LIFT FROM THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE BREAKS WITH NO PRECIP BUT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS
TIME. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY SINCE
THERE IS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER MODELS DO SHOW
VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT COULD CAUSE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. NO
POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR FRIDAY SINCE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

EASTERLY WINDS AND OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS CURRENTLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF NEBRASKA HAS FILTERED IN MORE SURFACE MOISTURE AT
MCK. CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 15Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER GLD ALL MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER BOTH GLD AND MCK. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK.
STORMS COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ IS IN PLACE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FOR TODAY...CURRENTLY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
OCCURRING AS SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
THUNDERSTORMS LEAVES...THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW CAUSES/ALLOWS CURRENT SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE
OR REDEVELOP BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE WINDS DO INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING. BY THAT TIME THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASINGS.
DO NOT THINK WILL REACH WIND CRITERIA OR DURATION CRITERIA SO
CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.

FOR SUNDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER MOST
OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA OF
LOWEST WINDS. SO A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE REACHED.

FOR MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH
LEADS TO LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...SOME OR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP WITH ONE SINCE IT IS THE WARMEST
AND DRIEST. OUT OF THE 3 DAYS MENTIONED HERE...THIS DAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...BULLER/ALW
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER