Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 302037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL COLORADO...ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE
NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH...GUSTING 25 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A LARGE BAND OF WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...INTO THE DAKOTAS
THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH-PLAINS. ALOFT...A 500 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE 500 MB WILL CONTINUE ITS
MOVEMENT EAST...REACHING THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS
THE LOW DEPARTS...ANTICIPATE A REDUCTION IN THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE SNOW IS
THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING FOR MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE RUNS SEEM
TO HAVE AN ACCURATE HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO DEPENDED ON THESE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

TOMORROW...A PRECIPITATION LULL IS FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER...BEGINS TO EJECT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO...SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE REGION. LEANED ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
AS GLOBAL MODELS OFTEN HAVE A NORTHERN BIAS WITH PRECIPITATION
EXTEND. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TOMORROW BUT THERE IS
SOME HESITATION ON HOW WARM TO GO OVER EAST COLORADO WITH SNOW
LIKELY STILL ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING H5 LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THEREAFTER. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH DRY POPS TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TREND MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OCCURRING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT
WILL EXIT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LESS AMPLIFICATION AND A TRACK THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES. LOW CIGS
ARE RESULT OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...ALLOWING STRATUS TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IFR CIGS LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO
IFR/LIFR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
OVER EAST COLORADO BUT FOG MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. AT KGLD AND KMCK...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



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