Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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103
FXUS63 KGLD 300531
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1131 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Strong, deep lift will continue over the center part of the area
near the majority of the storm activity. This lift will diminish
during the early evening. The storm activity will then shift to
the west and northwest ahead of an approaching upper level short
wave trough. Expect the lift to increase during the evening,
mainly over the northwest and north central part of the area into
the overnight hours before weakening as the short wave trough
begins to fill. The nose of the LLJ will also be over the
northwest part of the area during this time period, further adding
to the lift. The storm activity will diminish/move east of the
area during the overnight hours.

Due to the increasing stability of the environment, am expecting
the severe weather threat to come to a close over the next hour or
so if not before. However due to slow storm motions around 15 MPH,
flash flooding will continue to be a threat during the evening and
into the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in
southeastern part of the area. A weak shortwave trough rotating
around the souther plains ridge has provided enough lift in the
moderately unstable and weakly sheared environment for large hail
in the strongest cores. The shear is forecast to increase a bit
this afternoon so storms will likely persist into the evening
hours as they gradually lift north with the upper forcing.

Monday will present a similar set up as today. Another shortwave
trough will rotate in during the afternoon from the southwest.
Instability however will be higher...with most of the forecast
area moderately to strongly unstable. Deep layer shear will be
similar with perhaps a slight increase as well compared to today.
As a result...think there will be another round of scattered
storms capable of producing large hail.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorm activity Monday evening, some severe, will slowly wind
down Monday night as the longwave of low pressure pulls slightly
eastward overnight. The theta-e boundary that provided a focus for
thunderstorm development on Monday afternoon/evening will move off
to the east as we head into Tuesday. Another round of thunderstorm
activity will be possible on Tuesday along and ahead of a cold
front. At this time, strong thunderstorms are possible but severe
thunderstorm development will be limited. PoPs remain in the
forecast through Wednesday morning as this front will likely slow
down during the overnight hours and perhaps stall out just to the
east of the CWA. This system will move to the east late Wednesday
and into Thursday with high pressure building in to the west of the
CWA. A dry and warm pattern will persist from late Wednesday into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main challenge will be the
wind direction overnight due to thunderstorm outflow creating a
mess of the wind field. Did a best guess of the wind direction
given the anticipated storm movement, but have little confidence
with the wind field forecast. The winds should return to the south
by 12z due to the storms being over with by that time. Another
round of storms is expected, with storm activity increasing during
the late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL



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