Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240550
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Just completed an update. Snowfall activity decreasing this
evening as depicted. However, some additional snow is moving
through the southern portion of our area where no chance was in
the grids. So updated to add a low chance through the evening
hours. Everything else appears to be on track at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Upper level system will move out of the northern Rockies today and
across the central plains on Friday, providing synoptic scale
support for light precipitation. Accompanying surface low will
move across southwest Kansas today and be near Kansas City by
06z. Brisk north winds will advect colder temperatures into the
area, allowing any mixed or liquid precipitation early this
evening to change to all snow by 06z tonight, continuing through
Friday morning before gradually tapering off Friday afternoon. An
inch or two will be possible in southwest Nebraska, with the
remainder of the area expected to see less than an inch. Lows
tonight will drop into the teens and 20s and highs on Friday will
struggle to break the freezing mark. Wind chills will be in the
single digits and teens tonight and through the day Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

The long term is largely dry with a couple of slight chances for
precipitation. Temperatures vary, warming through Monday before
cooling some as a system pushes through during the middle of next
week.

Precipitation is anticipated to taper off by Friday afternoon, prior
to the start of the period. The low pressure system impacting the
region continues east towards the Great Lakes Friday night. Upper
flow turns zonal over the weekend and subsidence sets in, leading to
dry conditions through at least Sunday.

An upper disturbance quickly pushes across the High Plains Sunday
night, but the area looks to remain dry except for a slight chance
of some light snow for the extreme southeastern portion of the
forecast area. This disturbance progresses east, and flow aloft
becomes southwesterly behind as a trough moves onto the western
CONUS.

Some low PoPs return during the Monday night to Tuesday night time
frame with an upper level system traversing the central Plains. Will
continue to monitor the track of this system in the coming days.

Temperatures generally warm at the start of the period, with highs
going from the mid 30s to mid 40s on Saturday to the mid 40s to mid
50s on Monday. The region then sees a drop Tuesday and Wednesday as
cooler air moves in. Low temperatures remain in the teens and 20s,
except for Monday night when a few locations could stay in the 30s.
The majority of the forecast area will see wind chills in the single
digits Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

For Kgld...north winds near 19 knots with gusts in the 27 to 30
knot range are expected until 23z. Mvfr conditions are expected
until 19z when conditions will become vfr. Vfr conditions will
then continue through the end of the period. At 23z the gusts will
end and the light north winds will become light and variable.

For Kmck...vfr conditions are expected until 09z when conditions
become mvfr. Then from 13z until 19z will be ifr with occasional
mvfr conditions expected. Then prevailing mvfr conditions will
occur from 19z until 22z when vfr conditions return. Vfr
conditions are expected through the rest of the period. North
winds of 16 to 20 knots with gusts to near 30 knots are expected
until 23z. At that time the winds will decrease dramatically and
then become light and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER



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