Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 142109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Currently instability snow showers are moving across the area. As
we approach sunset, this precipitation will rapidly end. Otherwise,
winds will drop off dramatically near and shortly after sunset. A
further decrease and shift to the west is expected by late
evening. This combined with decreasing cloud cover and dewpoints
will allow low temperatures to drop near or slightly below

Flow aloft tomorrow will shift to the northwest. Models are showing
a decent amount of mid and upper level cloud cover. This will offset
the increasing 850 mb temperatures and downslope winds or would go
even warmer than what I have in there. Still temperatures will range
from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

There is good agreement between the global models regarding a deep
H5 trough and associated cold front that will traverse the region on
Sunday. A relatively strong theta-e boundary will provide a focus
for light snow to develop along the front as it pushes from
northwest to southeast. Not expecting much in the way of
accumulations as QPF is near 0.01 inch as the boundary moves through
the region. High temperatures on Sunday will likely not climb out of
the 30s across much of the CWA.

For Monday and Tuesday, ridging will influence the region from west
to east. Afternoon highs will rebound back into the 50s as a result
with dry conditions expected both days.

Ridge axis passes to our east as we head into Wednesday with
relatively strong trough approaching the region from the west.
Models sharply disagree both temporally and spatially with this
system, especially as we head into Thursday afternoon. ECMWF remains
more progressive, followed by the Canadian, with the GFS being the
slowest and deepest of the three. Although there are differences in
the guidance, the consensus does agree upon a pattern change that
will likely bring much colder air to the central High Plains going
into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Northwest winds
will be near 22 knots with gusts to near 30 knots through sunset.
At that time, the gusts will stop as the sustained speeds decrease
into the 10 to 15 knot range. By late in the evening the winds
will shift to the southwest at 7 to 12 knots. These winds will
continue through the end of the period.




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