Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280812
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SO
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMCK 10Z-14Z...AND SOME 6SM FOG
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES FROM 10Z-14Z. WINDS STARTING OUT NW
SHIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE DAY AROUND 10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS BY MIDDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN



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