Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 071303
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
703 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR ENTIRE AREA. CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE LOOP SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS W/
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AREA STILL SEEING MIX OF
SMOKE/FOG/HAZE THIS MORNING SO HAVE LEFT IN FORECAST FOR NOW AND
WILL ADJUST LATER THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THIS LEAVES THE AREA
UNDER A WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS AT LOW LEVELS MOVING INTO THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS TENDED TO HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST...NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER. THE ECMWF...UKMET
...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT THE NAM AND SREF THE WORST. THE MODELS AT THE SURFACE WERE
TENDING TO NOT BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...DO HAVE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER DUE TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. INITIAL PROBLEM IS AREA IS STILL SEEING MINOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO YESTERDAYS FRONT BRINGING IN SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES. ALSO ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG.
HARD TO PINPOINT ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER WITH EITHER OF THESE
FEATURES SO BLANKETED THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG AND SMOKE THIS
MORNING.

WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO...BEFORE IT STARTS PULLING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL LIFT FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT IS
COMING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT IS NOW OVER
THE AREA. DAY SHIFT HAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO NO INSTABILITY
AND THAT FITS CURRENT SETUP AND MADE JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
AREA.

LOOKS TO BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER COMING IN FROM SOUTH DAKOTA.
THAT COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES COOL ONCE AGAIN AND WENT NEAR TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.

FORECAST STARTS TO CHANGE AND GET MORE INTERESTING DURING THE NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS APPROACHING THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO FITS THE FORECAST REASONING FROM YESTERDAYS
FORECAST AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WHICH WAS TO INCREASE
THE COVERAGE AREA SLIGHTLY AND TO RAISE SOME OF THE AREA TO LOW
CHANCE POPS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE IT MATCHED UP VERY
WELL WITH THE CURRENT MODEL DATA.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING A RATHER STRONG AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY
DURING THE NIGHT. ALSO THERE MAY BE A WARM FRONT COMING UP FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE STARTS MOVING THROUGH.

DAYTIME TIMING ON THE PRECIPITATION LOOK GOOD AND MADE NO CHANGES.
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE MODEL OUTPUT AGREES ON PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BEING NEAR 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH A FEW OF THE
MODELS LOOK TO DEVELOP A REASONABLE DEPICTION OF A CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE
OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SO
RAISED POPS AND THE QPF AMOUNTS.

EVEN WHERE THERE IS NOT ANY RAINFALL GOING ON DURING THE DAY...THERE
LOOKS TO BE A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL CUT
DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS
LOOKS TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 70S AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS BUT POSSIBLE I COULD STILL BE WARM.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL STILL BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. THAT
COMPLEX LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...THAT COMPLEX WILL HAVE MAJOR AND PROBLEMATIC AFFECTS
ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECAST UNCERTAIN.

FIRST...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING
COLD POOL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE LOOKS TO
BE A WARM FRONT TRYING TO COME NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REASON THIS IS RELEVANT IS THAT THE MODELS WANT TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON THAT THE MODELS
SHOW NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WOULD THINK IF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS AS INTENSE AND LARGE AS IT IS
SHOWING...THE COLD POOL COULD KEEP THE FRONT FROM MAKING IT VERY FAR
NORTH OR EVEN SHOVE IT BACK FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO THE LINGERING COLD
POOL AT THE VERY LEAST COULD DELAY OR EVEN STOP ANY FURTHER
CONVECTION.

CURRENTLY KEPT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT. LOOK TO HAVE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO THE
BEST MID LEVEL LIFT COMES IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. KEPT THE
HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS. HOWEVER...THIS IS
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO EXACT AFFECTS THAT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE.

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT HIGH TEMPERATURE
BUST. IF A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL...UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
ARE GENERATED...THEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES I PUT IN THERE AFTER
GOOD COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS...COULD STILL BE TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  CAPE VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A LACK OF A STRONG JET PRESENCE KEEPS SHEAR
VALUES BELOW 20 KTS ACCORDING TO GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  AS A
RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY.  SOME MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOME MARGINAL JET SUPPORT...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN
COMBINATION WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THROUGH 15Z BOTH SITES WILL HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE
AND FOG. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...KGLD
WILL HAVE GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GET NEAR KGLD. HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EVEN
THOUGH NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD TO CHOSE TO PUT VCTS AT KGLD AT
09Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.