Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 282140
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

KGLD...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
11KTS. BY 00Z TERMINAL SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH 08Z. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 15Z DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CIGS
WONT BE FAR AWAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A RISE IN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 07Z.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN EXPECTED
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
VICINITY. IF ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL
VIS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS WELL THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND NORTH WINDS JUST OVER
5KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99


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