Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 260531
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST TIMING FOR PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY AROUND THE REGION PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES...STILL
NOT PUSHING FAR ENOUGH EAST AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS
CURRENTLY IN FORECAST. HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...CONFINING BULK OF ANY EXPECTED PRECIP THRU 06Z
FRIDAY TO THE EASTERN COLORADO AREA...THEN INCREASING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND ONWARD. LIMON COLORADO SHOWING SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITH LAST OB...SO WILL KEEP IN FORECAST WITH SNOWFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A WIDE EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NEBRASKA...APPROACHING THE COLORADO BORDER.  BEHIND THE FRONT
CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVED IN WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING AND
VISIBILITIES DROPPING AS LOW AS A MILE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

AM EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER YUMA COUNTY AND FAR
NORTHWEST KIT CARSON/DUNDY COUNTIES BEFORE THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA.  DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATING FROM THE GROUND UP AND SOME
WEAK LIFT PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT...AM THINKING THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENS
ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL THEN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

TONIGHT THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH SNOWFALL MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE.  AS THE SNOWFALL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ANTICIPATE THERE TO
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS
THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL.  DUE TO THE BRIEF
NATURE OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...ANTICIPATE LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCUMULATION.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO EXTENDING OVER THE KS/NE LINE.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AND LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE ANTICIPATE A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL SETUP.  KEPT A FAIRLY BROAD
AREA OF SNOWFALL CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.  THIS BAND
WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNRISE AS THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS.

FRIDAY ANOTHER BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTOGENESIS NORTH THEN RETURNED
IT TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ANOTHER BAND OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP...MAIN QUESTION
IS WHERE EXACTLY WILL IT DEVELOP.  KEPT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF
HIGHER SNOWFALL CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.  WITHIN THE
FRONTOGENESIS THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR ZERO IN THE DENDRITIC
ZONE WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ALSO LOCATED THERE.  WITH A FAIRLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
ZONE...SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR OR MORE ARE VERY LIKELY
WITHIN THE BAND.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE BAND OF HEAVER SNOW WILL
HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA.

DURING THE AFTERNOON ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA INCREASES AND A
SECOND WEAKER BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
DEVELOP THERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS.  AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

BY SUNSET SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST UNDER 3 INCHES FROM
HILL CITY TO GOVE...TO 5 INCHES FROM GOODLAND TO MCCOOK ON WEST.
THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES UNDER THE BAND.

WOULD HAVE GONE TO 100 PERCENT FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT JUST DID
NOT QUITE HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO BASED ON THE VARIABILITY OF THE
FRONTOGENESIS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...STORMS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. FOR SATURDAY LOTS OF SUNSHINE BEFORE A BIT
OF INCREASING MID AND UPPER CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXCEPT
LOW TEENS FROM NORTON TO HILL CITY AND LEOTI EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MID 20S TO LOW 30S EXCEPT IN PARTS OF EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AREA WHERE SNOWPACK EXPECTED WITH LOW
TO MID 20S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO MAYBE LOW TEENS. FOR SUNDAY A BIT WARMER WITH 30S FOR ALL
BUT PARTS OF YUMA...CHEYENNE (KS) AND DUNDY COUNTIES WHERE SNOWPACK
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...1050MB SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO
MONTANA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BRINGING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA TO AROUND 20 HILL CITY TO
TRIBUNE. CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...1050MB ISOBAR MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND
15 MPH WILL CONTINUE. MORNING LOWS ZERO TO -5F ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF WITH ZERO TO 3F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. "HIGH" TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST. LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING
NIGHT DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DECREASES.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY AS VALUES OF -15F TO -24F
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WIND CHILL WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
SFC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP A BIT DURING THE DAY BUT NOT BEFORE VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 20S. FOR EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE VALUES OF -16F TO -24F EXPECTED.
FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA A WIND CHILL WARNING LIKELY
NEEDED FOR VALUES OF -25F TO -31F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BIG PICTURE SHOWING CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT THEN INTO ARIZONA DURING THE DAY.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

FOR BOTH SITES THRU 08Z THIS MORNING...3-6SM IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC005-015. AFT 08Z...
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3SM(WITH 1/2SM AFT 13Z- 14Z
FRIDAY THRU 00Z SAT)...THEN 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS BY
13Z FRIDAY NEAR OVC003 THEN LIFTING TO NEAR OVC010 BY 00Z
SATURDAY. WINDS NNW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AFT 13Z
FRIDAY...BUT BEFORE 00Z SAT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>015-027-028-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.