Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261055
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTH. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. IT WILL TURN COLDER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LAKE CLOUDS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN ERIE COUNTY PA.
STREAMERS OFF LAKE HURON LOOK AS THOUGH THEY COULD GET ABOUT AS
FAR WEST AS EASTERN ASHTABULA COUNTY. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
NICE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY MOVING EAST. ONE LAST
SHORT WAVE IN THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL JUST BRUSH EXTREME NE OH/NW PA
TODAY. ANY SHOWER THREAT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE COLUMN REMAINING QUITE DRY BUT
JUST COLD ENOUGH AT 850 MB FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS AT THE INVERSION
TODAY MAINLY ACROSS NW PA. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ELSEWHERE IN
AND NEAR THE SNOWBELT. SUNNY ELSEWHERE WITH HARDLY A CLOUD TO BE
FOUND. FORECAST HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM
TEMPS YESTERDAY AND FULL SUNSHINE...FROM 60 TO 65 ACROSS NW OHIO TO
THE MID/UPPER 50S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY MONDAY MORNING AND DECENT
ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS A NICE LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STILL VERY DRY THOUGH AND ALL OF THE UPWARD
MOTION WILL GO INTO MAKING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONDITIONAL
PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN RATHER LARGE UNTIL YOU GET UP TOWARD THE
THUMB OF MICHIGAN AND NORTH AND THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY...PERHAPS EVEN A DEGREE C HIGHER. HIGHS MONDAY
FROM THE MID 70S NW OHIO TO THE MID 60S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THE 100 KNOT JET ALOFT MAY ALONE BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH A BETTER CHANCE NE OH/NW PA WHERE THERE WILL
BE SOME DAYTIME HEATING/CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARM UNTIL THE
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP AROUND 60 WITH THE
FRONT.

THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
OTHER THAN THE TROUGH ITSELF...NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS
OTHER THAN SOME CONVERGENCE AND FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGH TEMPS BACK
DOWN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE START THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SUSPECT WE WILL STILL
HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT AS THE NEXT ROUND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARRIVES.
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.

A BIG COOL DOWN REMAINS ON TRACK TO FINISH THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH
IS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVING BEHIND
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WHILE VARYING ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING...LIKELY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S DURING THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DECLINE TOWARDS EVENING AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -8C ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW. NOVEMBER WILL
START OUT CHILLY ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET
INTO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. LOW
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL PULL AWAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 3000 FEET WILL DEVELOP AT ERI BETWEEN
15-20Z SUNDAY WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT THE OTHER SITES.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT SITES IN NE OHIO/NW PA WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 15-20Z...THEN DECREASING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS
THEN RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LAKE. EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST TO
VERMILION WITH THE SEGMENT FROM VERMILION TO WILLOWICK IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4 PM. WILL NEED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
LONGER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AS WAVES REMAIN HIGH UNTIL 10 PM
THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CONDITIONS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE ON FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ145-
     146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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