Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 310254
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON
SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORT WAVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOT SURE HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THE SHOWERS CAN EXPAND. THE BEST GUESS AT THE
MOMENT IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND EAST. I DOUBT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN GET TO TOLEDO BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. RAIDED
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
IN GENERAL FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIR MASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA NOW
INTO SW OHIO WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.  FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW OHIO TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE...SO COULD SEE SOME
TSRA NW OHIO LATER THIS EVENING. JUST WENT WITH TSVC IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON





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