Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
951 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY...THEN PUSH BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT WAS MAINLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA IS NOW MIXING OUT. HOWEVER THERE ARE LIKELY A
FEW LOCATIONS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 11 AM.

OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A
BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FORCED INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL
- PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER SKY CONDITION. WENT
ALONG WITH GUIDANCE ON HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE WX TO CONSIDER AS
MODELS DEVELOP A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING OUT OF ONTARIO MONDAY TO
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DEVELOP A WEAL SURFACE
LOW IN RESPONSE. A DEVELOPING BUT STILL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM MAINLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY DEVELOPING LITTLE
MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
FOLLOWING THE NAM...THE FRONT APPEARS TO DROP INTO CENTRAL OHIO
AND THEN STALL BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DRY OUT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN
KEEP IT DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS CREEP INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THE TIMING BUT IN GENERAL THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST BY FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS OVER THE LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRI WITH MUCH COOLER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
REPLACING THE WARM/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HOW STRONG THE STORMS ARE ON
FRIDAY REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE THERE FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED ON SAT SO EXPECT SCT SHRA TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE TODAY SO SOME CU IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE FOG TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/MIST.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FIRST NOTICEABLE FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT COMING THRU
MON NIGHT THAT SHOULD CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO LINE BACK UP
OUT OF THE N TO NE FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH A LITTLE INCREASE IN
SPEED. EAST THEN SE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED NIGHT THRU THU
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





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