Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1257 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

An arctic cold front will drop south across the area late today and
early tonight. High pressure will move southeast from the Canadian
Plains across the area Wednesday night. Another cold front will sag
south into the area by Saturday then a series of lows will move
northeast along the front across the region Saturday through early
next week.


Fog has all but dissipated across the area early this afternoon
after holding on a little longer east of the I-75 corridor.
Minor adjustments to sky cover and temps with this update,
otherwise no major changes.

Original discussion...
Light winds have allowed fog to form, locally dense in the
west. The fog will dissipate by late morning leaving partly to
mostly cloudy skies to prevail the rest of the day.

An arctic cold front will push south into the cwa this afternoon. As
winds turn north and the colder air starts to arrive, temps will
likely be falling for the second half of the afternoon, especially
for the northern counties along Lake Erie.

Overall the airmass today is relatively dry so frontal convergence
will probably still not be enough to produce more than an isolated
shra or two.


The arctic air spreading south over the area will drive temps down
into the upper teens to lower 20s by the end of the night. High
pressure ridging se into the area will suppress lake effect activity
so at most there should only be a few flurries or light snow showers
for the snowbelt later tonight and Wed but little accumulation is
expected. Highs on Wed will be well below normal, generally from the
mid 20s ne to around 35 far sw. With the center of the high crossing
the area Wed night, light winds and mostly clear skies should lead
to a cold night with lows from about 12 inland ne to the upper teens
in the sw.

The high will shift east of the area Thu, allowing winds to start
turning more to the south to help temps start to moderate back
toward more normal readings Thu and more so for Thu night. High
clouds from the next system will be increasing west to east Thu with
rain expected to start spreading in from the west Thu night.


Nearly vertically stacked low pressure system will approach from the
Plains over the weekend. Although models still exhibiting
differences with the track of the system, the 00Z GFS has trended
northward and is more in line with the ECMWF than previous runs.
Adjustments to the track are still expected as the trough off the
west coast moves onshore on Wednesday and upper air network has an
opportunity for better sampling. Given the northward shift, have
warmed temperatures near the lake but concern remains for areas from
Sandusky to Toledo where easterly flow off the lake may keep
temperatures cooler. Showers expected to increase from the west late
Saturday into Saturday night as the deeper moisture arrives ahead of
the system. Showers will continue on Sunday and Sunday night as the
system starts to fill and drifts east of the area. A similar system
approaches from the west Monday night into Tuesday with chances of
rain returning.


.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Dense fog in place across northwest Ohio will gradually improve
to 5 miles or better through around 15Z. Stratus deck will tend
to lift and eventually scatter out through 18Z. VFR conditions
will persist into this evening with westerly winds near 10
knots. A cold front will push south across the area tonight with
breezy north winds developing and scattered to broken skies
near 3500 feet. Some areas across northeast Ohio will have
ceilings lower to MVFR overnight.

OUTLOOK...Patchy Non-VFR ceilings Wednesday morning across NE
Ohio/NW PA.


Light northwest winds on the lake this morning will back to the west
this afternoon ahead of a stronger cold front that will push south
across the lake tonight. Winds will shift to the north with the
passage of the front this evening and increase to 20-25 knots
overnight. Waves expected to grow to 3 to 5 feet into Wednesday
morning and have issued a Small Craft Advisory through 14Z. Winds
and waves expected to drop off fairly quickly on Wednesday as strong
high pressure builds southeast out of Canada. Good marine conditions
expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

Winds will develop out of the south as a warm front lifts north
across the lake early Friday and increase to 10 to 20 knots. Low
pressure will approach from the plains over the weekend with
easterly flow developing on the lake.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ142>149.


NEAR TERM...Adams/Greenawalt
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