Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 181615
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1215 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the local area later today
and tonight. High pressure will gradually build northeast into
the region Monday through Wednesday. Another cold front should
push east into the area by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convergence just strong enough near I-71 and from Geauga County
eastward to Erie County Pa to generate some showers. These have
been slow to grow so far but are in the region of greatest
instability. So we will continue to monitor them.

Previous Discussion...
Convective debris cloudiness will play a significant role in the
forecast across the region today. Currently seeing thicker cloud
cover across the western half of the County Warning Area (CWA).
Expect it to advect eastward and slowly decrease in coverage.
All short range models continue to indicate some prefrontal
convergence across the eastern half of the CWA this afternoon,
generally near and east of I-71. Earlier forecast seems to
handle this well and have only made some minor changes in the
timing. Current uncertainty is the coverage of the convection
that develops with only pockets of higher instability developing
where the cloud cover remains the thinnest.

With debris clouds already overspreading the area the potential
for significant daytime heating appears minimal. This will
limit MU CAPES to 1000 j/kg or less. Will continue with high
precip chances over the eastern two thirds of the area. Given
the amount of cloudiness expected today have backed off on temps
a little with warmest readings at the east end of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
By daybreak Monday the area should be dry again. Some
instability showers remain possible on Monday as cool air
arrives in mid levels. There will be a noticeable change during
the day with surface dewpoints dipping well into the 50s by
early evening. Will again dry things out Monday night as
ridging occurs from the southwest. There still looks like there
could be a few showers on Tuesday as a short wave troughs rides
the top of the ridge. Chances look less than they did a couple
of days ago with better chances the further north you are.
Precip also looks less likely for Wednesday and have trimmed
back chances. Another system will begin to take shape to the
northwest on Wednesday night. We could see some warm air
advection showers sneak into the west end of the area by
daybreak Thursday.

New guidance coming in has been trending cooler with temps this
week. Have lowered highs Monday through Wednesday a degree or
two most areas. Overall...temps will average a tad below normal
during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fast moving upper level shortwaves will move east in the nearly
zonal flow across the forecast area.  This will translate into weak
waves of low pressure that will move east northeast across the
region.

Surface high pressure will move east of the area to the Atlantic
Seaboard by Thursday afternoon.  This will setup the movement of a
warm front north of the area.  Warm air advection will take place
Thursday well ahead of advancing low pressure.  Guidance
temperatures may be way too cool if warm air advection takes place
as strong as expected. Would not be surprised if we see upper 80s
Thursday across the area. The same for Friday as warm air advection
continues.

A southern stream low pressure system moves northeast out of the
deep south and then northeast of the area Saturday morning allowing
for some cold air advection to take place through the day into
Saturday night.  Moisture will stream north toward the area from the
Gulf of Mexico Friday into the Ohio Valley.  Limited moisture
associated with the cold front will slide southeast across the area
Saturday morning.  All in all, the threat for showers and
thunderstorms is expected through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Cold front is progged to move east across the area later today.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during
the afternoon. Some lingering showers expected in the east later
tonight. Winds increase a tad with the cold front as well but
diminish later this evening. Ceilings drop after frontal passage
to MVFR but recover back to VFR fairly quickly toward morning
tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow will continue today ahead of the cold front.
Expecting highest waves to be just outside the 5 mile from shore
area and will hold off on issuing any small craft advisories.  Wind
diminish tonight out of the southwest and west but increase to
around 20 knots by Tuesday morning.  May need a small craft advisory
for Tuesday.   Winds quickly diminish Tuesday evening and light
winds around 10 knots expected through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy



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