Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 191111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
611 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

A weak and dry cool front will push south across the area this
morning. High pressure will build back over the region Sunday
and Monday then a cold front will cross the region on Tuesday.
Another cold front will sag south near Lake Erie early Thursday
before lifting north as a warm front Friday, bringing a chance
of showers and storms to the region.


Made a few minor changes to cloud cover across southern portions
of the CWA where some low clouds are creeping in from the south.
We are also seeing a little bit of fog out there reducing
visibilities down to around 3 miles in the Findlay to Mansfield
area. This will stick around and spread a little more north and
east over the next couple hours before diminishing around

Previous discussion...
Clear skies are prevalent across the CWA early this morning as a
weak and dry cool front is located along northern portions of
Lake Erie. This front will move south through the area bringing
scattered cloud cover and a shift to westerly winds this
morning, which will eventually turn out of the north this
evening. Winds will remain very light.

Temperatures for this afternoon are tricky, especially along the
lake shore from near Cleveland eastward. A light flow off the
lake will help to keep temperatures cooler than what we saw
yesterday, but still well above normal. Areas along the lake
shore from Lake County eastward will struggle to get out of the
40s today, while temperatures across western and southern
portions of the CWA should get back up into the lower and middle
60s. Highs will likely occur this morning for the areas along
the lake shore before winds turn off the lake.

Drier air, light winds, and mostly clear skies will allow
temperatures tonight to fall to the lower and middle 30s.


A surface high will be moving off to the northeast of the area
Monday, which will turn the winds back around to the east by
late morning and the southeast by the afternoon. Temperatures
will still be about 15 degrees above normal, though the lake
shore will stay a little cooler.

A cold front will arrive Tuesday bringing rain showers to the
area. The GFS continues to be 6 plus hours faster than both the
ECMWF and NAM with regards to the timing of the front. Have
slowed down the onset of precipitation a bit to take more of a
blend of the NAM and ECMWF seeing as the GFS has routinely been
too fast with frontal boundaries recently. The slower timing
will allow for a little more heating ahead of the front, so
highs should be able to climb into the lower and middle 60s for
most areas.

The front will be well east of the area by Wednesday afternoon
and the remaining associated cloud cover should largely
dissipate by the late-morning or early-afternoon. This will
allow for plenty of sunshine with breezy southwest winds,
meaning high temperatures will likely rise into the middle and
upper 60s. We could very well see some 70 degree temperatures as
well, but will continue to trend higher in subsequent forecasts
if that looks likely.


Not many changes to the long term today as it looks like the surface
ridge will remain over the region through the end of the workweek.
As a result temps will remain mild with highs Thursday and Friday 25
to 30 degrees above normal. Precip chances will return to the
area during the period as a warm front from a low over the
Plains lifts across the area. Models still having some
differences with the main features but most of that should get
sorted out with later runs. Rain chances will increase Thursday
into Thursday night with perhaps the best chances during the
period coming on Friday. By that time the surface low should be
somewhere over the Central Lakes with a cold front approaching
the local area. Even the slower ECMWF has the front east of the
area by daybreak Saturday. Temperatures will return to near
normal behind the front with perhaps some snow showers downwind
of the lake for the second half of the weekend.


.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the overnight
into Sunday. Pesky cirrus continues to impact the eastern TAF
sites and some remnant mid-level cumulus from the rain along the
Ohio River could try to sneak into KCAK and KYNG overnight but
ceilings aren`t a big concern this evening. Earlier guidance had
pointed towards some MVFR fog/haze at some of the terminals but
has since backed off. With winds still 8 knots or greater at all
of the terminals, sizable surface temperature/dew point spreads,
and some mid to upper level clouds around, it seems difficult to
get any reduced visibilities tonight. VFR conditions will
continue into Sunday and winds will become more westerly
throughout the day. A lake breeze is expected to develop Sunday
afternoon bringing a wind shift to KERI and KCLE. Winds will
become light and variable for all terminals Sunday night.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday


Fairly quiet weather is expected on Lake Erie the next few days as
mild temperatures continue. The flow will become onshore today
as a weakening cool front pushes south of the lake. Light flow
is expected tonight with southerly winds redeveloping Monday as
a surface ridge pushes east of the lake. Speeds will increase
some ahead of a cold front which will cross the lake on Tuesday.
Given the stable situation of cold waters and warm air do not
think waves will get more than a foot or two. A period of
westerly flow is expected right behind the front but winds will
return to the southwest or south by early Wednesday and will
then remain that way through the end of the period. Do not
foresee needing any small craft headlines the next few days.




NEAR TERM...Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.