Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 272322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD
ON AN UPDATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL START TRIMMING
THE WATCH BACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY MOVING OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS IT COMES ONSHORE IN NE OH AND NW PA.


PREVIOUS...A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR
TO LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...SO SOME
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEAT TSRA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD
START TO SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES BUT DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
PAST WEEK SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. GENERAL AREA
OF BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE SNOWBELT WHERE WRAP
SHRA WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT
THRU MON MORNING. COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD START TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO
END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A
SERIES OF S/W`S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR LOW/TRIPLE POINT NOW OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NW OHIO. LOW FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO
MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PA AND NY STATE. AS IT DOES WILL DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS.
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-023-
     089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






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