Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 192011
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STARTING TO CLIMB ALOFT. SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE OHIO OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT SEEN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPE STILL ONLY AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG...SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS IN NE OH/NW
PA THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT AND
BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO A LOW
CHANCE POP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS PA.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN NW OHIO. ANY AREAS THAT DO LOSE CLOUDS WILL BE AT A
RISK FOR SEEING FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOP GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT JUST ENOUGH IN
NW OHIO LATE TODAY TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THAT MOISTURE. TOSS UP
BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS IN THOSE AREAS AND MAY SEE A LITTLE OF BOTH
AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST MOST AREAS. FOG POSSIBLE
EVEN IN THE EAST IF STRATUS LOWERS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE...LOWS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO DROP TO THE LOW 60S ...EXCEPT
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE TOWARDS TOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SNEAKS NORTH
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY THEN LINGERS INTO MONDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL DRY A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY WITH INCREASINGLY MORE SUN
EXPECTED. WE HOLD ONTO HIGH DEWPOINTS THOUGH AND A DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THEN JUST AN ISOLATED
CHANCE IN THE SE COUNTIES ON MONDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME DEGREE OF A MID-LEVEL CAP SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS CLIMB ALOFT BUT
COULD DEVELOP IN THE NE AREAS AS THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF IT ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AND REMOVED THE 20 POP FROM THE FORECAST AS THE
AIRMASS LOOKS CAPPED. DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN NW OHIO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO ROUND THE RIDGE. HIGHS BY TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. SOME QUESTION AS TO
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME JUST KEPT IT CHANCE POPS WITH
SCATTERED WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT AND COLD FRONT. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THE PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE AND THE CEILINGS ARE LIFTING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOME FOG
WILL FORM. ON THE EDGE HOW DENSE IT WILL BE. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING IFR...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. OVER NE OH AND NW PA
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO PERSIST AND THEN THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND THE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE SOME OFFSHORE WINDS
THIS EVENING AND THEN THAT SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT. WAVES COULD
BE 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FEET IN THE OPEN WATER OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

OTHER THEN THAT WAITING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE LAKE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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