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000
FXUS61 KCLE 202348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THE SPC
RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE. DESPITE
THIS...SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING OUT OF DTX INDICATES A STRONG CAP IS
IN PLACE BETWEEN 875-650MB WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIR MASS
ACROSS NRN OHIO. THE CU FIELD HAS ACTUALLY BEEN CLEARING ACROSS NW
OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
CONTINUING TO WATCH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AND
CU FILED ACROSS NRN IND IS HAVING A HARD TIME. HI- RES MODELS
WANT TO CLIP TOLEDO WITH CONVECTION BEFORE MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE BETWEEN 00-03Z...BUT EVEN LATEST RUNS OF THAT ARE LESS
EXCITED. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
CWA TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WITH POPS INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARDS DAWN AS A LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
AREA AND HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CLIP NW OHIO ON TUESDAY MORNING AND CONVECTION COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE...IF IT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD DOWN WIND OF THE LLJ OR IF WAIT UNTIL WE DESTABILIZE TO
INITIATE. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DESTABILIZATION
BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A SPEED MAX AT 500MB WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
NW OHIO AND HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECTING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE
WIND GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH NEAR
13.5KFT SO ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL
AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST SO LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS. WITH THAT SAID...A LOW
CHANCE DOES STILL REMAIN FOR BOTH HAIL AND TORNADOES. SHEAR IS
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOWER...MAINLY EAST OF I-71.

EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN
IN QUESTION BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS
AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR EAST FINALLY BY THURSDAY SO ONLY CARRIED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.  THE ENTIRE FOUR
DAY LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY.  TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MIDDLE 60S ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE UPPER 60S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.  READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE TAF FORECASTS DRY TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER/STORM POPPING UP OR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT THE ODDS
APPEAR LOW. WOULD RATHER CONCENTRATE THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF
FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY SEEM MORE LIKELY. EARLY
MORNING MVFR FOG AND HAZE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING. IFR OR MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL TUESDAY MORNING BUT DECIDED TO LIMIT
IT TO EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE IT WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY. THE
GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND RESUME AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY.  SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS TILL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ONSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  BOATERS WILL
NEED TO REMAIN ALERT.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA