Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221322
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
922 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track along a stalled front over Tennessee today
and tonight. High pressure centered over the northern plains and
central Canada will slide east across the Great Lakes early in the
week. A weakening cold front will reach the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Removed all mention of precip south for the balance of
the day. Also made adjustments to sky grids. Some filtered sun
getting through mainly east away from the lake where lake
induced stratus breaks up. Models show dry air moving in from
the north through the day however in the lower levels this is a
bit slower. Still, expect thinning of the cirrus and an eventual
break in the lower clouds as well. Most groups have a trend of
decreasing clouds/increasing sun which should work well. Temps
look fine.

Original "Today" discussion...
A deepening trough over the southern plains almost looks as if it is
already closing off on satellite imagery. Several short waves
rotating out of the system in the southern branch were creating a
series of convective clusters of showers and thunderstorms in a
parade from the Tennessee Valley to the east coast. The first wave
was crossing the Ohio Valley as we speak. The second wave seems on
track for midday. The northern branch jet and trough over the Great
Lakes is essentially coupled with the southern branch jet creating a
broad area of weak upward motion across the midwest and lower Great
Lakes. This will continue to bring a threat of sprinkles or light
rain showers, mainly from around Route 30 south although a weak
secondary front dropping across Lake Erie could stir up a sprinkle
early this morning. Lower clouds in the northwest flow were slowly
shifting east. Not quite cold enough aloft for pure lake effect but
good enough for some enhancement of the existing cloud shield. Lots
of mid and high clouds out there but we should thin out this
afternoon and as we lose the lower clouds we may see a few sunny
breaks or filtered sunshine by late afternoon. Forecast highs in the
50s to near 60, a degree or two below guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds will continue to thin tonight and we should get to the point
where there will be sct-bkn cirrus. We have started frost/freeze for
the Ohio counties so we have to consider frost which is a tricky
forecast based not just on the clouds but the wind. Not very
confident of widespread frost conditions so will not issue an
advisory but will mention patchy frost in the forecast for areas
blow 37F with wind less than 6 mph. This translates to inland areas
from around Toledo (west side) to Mansfield and Warren.

High clouds may try to increase on Sunday, especially east of I-71
but otherwise it should be sunny/mostly sunny. The north winds will
persist with a chill especially near Lake Erie. Forecast highs from
the lower/mid 50s near the lake to the lower/mid 60s inland, a
degree or two below most of the guidance. Temperatures may not warm
up much on Monday as the NE wind will probably end up being a little
stronger than Sunday. Will probably have some cosmetic cirrus clouds
with plenty of sunshine. Winds will come around from the southeast
on Tuesday. This should allow for more warming although a lake
breeze is possible in the afternoon. Highs in the 70s except
mid/upper 60s NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models coming into better agreement on the timing of the system
that will move through mid week. YDY the ECMWF was about 12
hours faster than the GFS, moving the system through during the
day Wednesday. Now the ECMWF is actually a little slower than
the GFS. Used the GFS timing for the forecast, with chance pops
in the west Wednesday afternoon. Both models move the front
across the area Wednesday night so went with likely pops
overnight. Track and timing of the next system next weekend
still in doubt. ECMWF moves system across the forecast area
Friday while the GFS is much slower and moves the system across
the Western Lakes. For now will just continue with low chance
pops.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Stratus deck has scattered out NW of a CLE to MFD line. Stratus
deck should totally scatter out by late morning as high pressure
builds SE over the forecast area.

OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR conditions through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
No Small Craft will be needed today but a north flow will remain
over the lake for the majority of the the weekend.   Winds lighten
overnight as high pressure finally builds over the lake.  Light NE
flow will continue into Monday.   Winds turn to the south ahead of
next system Monday night.  Next system will move across the lake
Wednesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...TK/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB



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