Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 090534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY UNDER A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS FROM 20% TO 30% AND CHANGE WORDING TO
SCATTERED AND ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER CHANCES...THE AIRMASS IS STILL
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER...HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE IS
JUST FOR SHOWERS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED...THE FLOW IS NORTHWEST AND WITH
A TROF ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS...NO THUNDER IN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST LOWS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH SOME CLOUDS AND
A LITTLE WIND NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME AND
NOT ENOUGH DENSE FOG TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR COLD FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT MAY BE RELATIVELY EARLY...SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT TRY TO TIME ANYTHING GIVEN THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING. DEW POINTS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE 50S AND HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE OUT OF THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT 9C...JUST ABOUT
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE LAKE
CLOUDS COULD BE NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH ALIGHT WIND SITUATION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BUT THAT IS JUST SPECULATION AT
THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY AGAIN COOL
IN THE LOWER/MID 70 WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. DISSIPATING
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD REACH NW OHIO BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL KEEP
THE FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE DOWN SLOPE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND DEWPOINTS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE. WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
WE SHOULD TRANSITION INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNLESS THERE IS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY ON
SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT MAY TAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT TO DROP
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CLIP THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO WIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES GOING
SCATTERED FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SW
FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM. THE WIND SHOULD DROP
OFF PRETTY STEADY FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE RATHER BRISK
ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ALMOST
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AND WINDS MAY BE MAINLY ONSHORE/OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZES LIKELY. WINDS WILL COME
AROUND FRO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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