Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 141139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM ADVECTION NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 850 MB HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 4500 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXPAND THIS CLOUD
COVER IN THE 4500 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MODIFIED
MOST LOCATIONS TO SAY MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE PARTLY SUNNY MAY END UP BEING VERY LATE
IN THE DAY.

SO WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE GRIDS. CONCERN NOW IS THAT A LARGER AREA OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF
IT REACHING CENTRAL NY STATE BY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME COOLER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER MOST OF IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAND BREEZE WILL BE LOCATED.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUNSHINE TODAY. HOWEVER NW OHIO MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE THE CLOUDS DECREASE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. HAVE KEPT THE TOLEDO AREA A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE MOST LOCATION WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MAYBE ONLY THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADS
INTO THAT REGION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CONCERN OF
FROST. HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LESS OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND STILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE LINGERING
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LAKE SHOWERS AS THIS ARRIVES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN
UP FASTER THAN CURRENT THINKING. COOLER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. WILL
FINALLY GET TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. ONLY
PRECIPITATING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COLD FRONT...EITHER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO GENERATE A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4500 FEET. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SITES THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THESE TO
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU FOR FAR NE
OH/NW PA NEAR 3K- 4K FEET TO START THE DAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LOW WATERSPOUT RISK ON THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LAKE CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE STILL IS NOT
REAL STRONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LAND BREEZE. WILL STILL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD ON
THE LAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES UP AROUND 3
FEET TO START OFF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NNE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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