Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 251142
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SPREAD MORE RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND UPDATED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO SCATTERED BASED ON
THE LIGHTNING RETURNS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SO NO THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IN OHIO. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM IN
INLAND PA SO THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT WILL END THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD DECREASE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER HALF AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND GUSTS AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. THE
COLD ADVECTION ZONE IS VERY NARROW AS WE WILL GET BACK TO WARM
ADVECTION BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE GUSTS TO
35 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AS THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SLOT WILL
GO WITH THE WARMER MOS MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS TOUGH...THE GFS
SEEMS TOO QUICK...SO BACKED OFF. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEFINITELY
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW KEPT THE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG
TROF ALOFT MOVES IN AND THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WITH IT...AT THIS POINT...JUST A CHANCE OF SOME
RA/SN SHOWERS. LATEST GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE ECMWF AND THAT WOULD
GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NE OH/NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR MON/TUE BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THIS DRY. BY MID WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO BE MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
START...MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 10
HOURS. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS.
PRIMARILY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR DURING THE RAIN. MVFR LIKELY
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TOL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR GETS ALL THE WAY TO MFD AND JUST WEST OF
CLE...BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
OUR NW...BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR. THUNDER LOOKS TO STAY
SOUTH OF MFD THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD THIS
MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A SPEED
MAX JUST OVERHEAD AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS PEAKING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THEIR
CURRENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WSW BY EVENING.
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL ARRIVES
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR REDEVELOPING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BRING WINDS
FROM THEIR CURRENT EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW. A
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE
COLD LAKE SURFACE BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
THE WARMER AIR...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALL
HELP TO DETERIORATE THE ICE AND LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST
OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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