Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 202346
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
746 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017
A weak cold front will move southeast through the region
this evening bringing widespread precipitation to the area. It
will be followed by an arctic cold front late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. High pressure will drop southeast from the
Canadian Plains moving across the area Thursday then a low will
move northeast into the Ohio Valley for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Update already out. Have made some adjustments to account for
current shower activity. For most locations have ended up
lowering precip chances. Have also removed all mention of
thunder. See some new development over northern IN so will
leave chances going for a few hours even where it is currently
Previous...A few showers and thunderstorms are developing
across northwest Ohio as of 3 PM. These will continue to expand
in coverage as the storms move eastward through the remainder of
the afternoon into early tonight. Western and southern portions
of the CWA have the best chance to pick up between 0.25 and 0.5
inch of rain with isolated higher totals possible in
thunderstorms. Elsewhere, generally 0.25" or less is expected.
The showers and storms will come to an end from northwest to
southeast early tonight. There will likely be breaks in the
clouds behind the front, but mostly cloudy skies will continue
through the night. This will keep low temperatures in the mid-
30s most locations, with upper 30s across far southern areas.
Temperatures will warm to the upper 40s and lower 50s Tuesday
afternoon as winds begin to back out of a more westerly
direction. An arctic front will pass south through the area late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will usher in much colder air.
Temperatures Tuesday night will drop into the lower and middle
20s most locations, with the higher terrain of northwest
Pennsylvania likely dropping into the teens.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Even though we will see a mostly sunny sky Wednesday,
temperatures will struggle to get out of the lower 30s most
locations, and the upper 20s in northwest Pennsylvania. This is
thanks to being under the influence of an arctic high.
Mostly clear skies will continue Wednesday night. This will
allow temperatures to plummet down into the middle teens and
even the lower teens across northwest Pennsylvania.
Winds veer around to the south Thursday and temperatures will
warm back up to near normal (lower to middle 40s). Some warm air
advection showers are expected later Thursday night as a low
starts to take shape across the Southern Plains. Parts of
northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania could see some snow
mix in with the rain.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Few changes in the long term trends. Some lingering rain in the
East Friday morning until the warm front finally lifts NE of
the Forecast area. Upper level ridge builds over the forecast
area Friday...but shortlived. Ridge shifts east of the forecast
area Saturday allowing a strong upper level low to move across
the area Sunday into Monday. ECMWF faster with the low...moving
it east of the area Monday morning...while the GFS is about 6 to
8 hours slower. Slowed down the timing of the precip. Still
think best chance for showers will be Sunday into Sunday night.
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Showers with MVFR ceilings and visibility will slide across the
area this evening as low pressure crosses the Ohio Valley.
Additional showers as well as patches of fog and perhaps drizzle
will develop ahead of and with a weak cold front dropping
across the lower Great Lakes. Local IFR ceilings and visibility
possible for a while overnight. Behind the front winds turn to
the North. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR from
northwest to southeast Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR ceilings return Tuesday night into Wednesday
across NE Ohio/NW PA.
Light south flow will give way to north winds overnight as a weak
cold front pushes across the lake. Winds increase to 10 to 20
knots Tuesday night as a secondary front pushes across the lake.
Small craft likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. But conditions
quickly improve on Wednesday as a large area of Canadian high
pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Winds turn to the south
Thursday as the high shifts east of the Lake.