Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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795
FXUS61 KCLE 092245
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
545 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AND FORCE A TRAILING TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT.

LOOKING AT AN INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE
SNOWBELT DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE SNOWBELT
REGION THAT WILL TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
STARTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE
SNOWBELT. MORE ON THIS IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST TONIGHT AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE LAKE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST
WILL LAG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BACK OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN DEEP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME DRYING ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
SETUP SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

MEAN WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BANDS ACROSS THE
PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. MEAN WINDS OVER THE LAKE AROUND 25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE AIR PARCELS OVER
THE LAKE TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

AS MOISTURE STREAMS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND FROM A LAKE HURON
FETCH...HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES BY THE TIME THIS IS OVER.

ONE QUESTION MARK STILL REMAINS IS HOW LONG EACH OF THE BANDS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY TO ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATING SNOW. SOME
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BANDS WILL WAVER AT TIMES LIMITING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND BROADCAST THE SNOW OVER A
WIDER AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SHEAR TO DEVELOP WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THEN GOING BACK TO A MORE LAMINAR FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY BECOMES EXTREME IN THE COLDER AIR OVER THE
LAKE.

SO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GEAUGA...INLAND
ASHTABULA...INLAND ERIE PENNSYLVANIA...AND CRAWFORD PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
LAKE...NORTHERN ASHTABULA...AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. CUYAHOGA AND
TRUMBULL COUNTIES ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THEY WILL NEED A
WARNING OR AN ADVISORY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
HEADLINE FOR THESE TWO AREAS.

OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHER MAIN ISSUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS THE GRADUAL
LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS
WILL BE LUCKY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. MUCH COLDER
AIR ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY/QUEBEC AREA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE SNOWBELT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. SATURDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH 850MB TEMPS A CHILLY
-24 TO -28C SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. SUNDAY
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SNOWBELT GIVEN THAT FLOW...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY
STILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MONDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS.
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH LITTLE FORCING AT THIS POINT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TURN VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.  GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY IS FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SOUTHWEST TO NEAR KFDY.
AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY AFFECTING
KTOL AND KFDY AND SHOULD GET INTO KMFD AND KCLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA HAS BEEN SHRINKING HOWEVER IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
SHOULD ALSO IMPACT KERI KYNG AND KCAK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS MOSTLY MVFR ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER EXPECT IFR IN
THE SNOW. MODELS SHOW LIFT DEVELOPING AVER LAKE ERIE AND SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALSO A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH. EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY.  COULD SEE SOME FREEZING SPRAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BUT A BETTER CHANCE WOULD LIKELY
BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE AND WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY EXPECT A
WEST FLOW AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TURNING
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20 KNOTS
RANGE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING BACK
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ012-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ013-014.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK



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