Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 141943
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COMPLEX SITUATION OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.  CURRENTLY A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OHIO.  THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA EARLY THIS EVENING. I
WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION IN THE ZONE FORECAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST OVER AREA BUT HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAX THAT CREATED THE HIGH WINDS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA. I EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY THIS EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE INITIAL PUSH OF SHOWERS FROM
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATER THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE
A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OCCURS LATER
TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS HAVE A WAVE DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. THIS SURFACE WAVE COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THE PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. TIMING ON THE TRANSITION
WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT IT SHOULD OCCUR IN NW OH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
IN NORTHWEST PA NEAR SUNRISE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. THE GROUND HAS WARMED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE WEST IS NOT LARGE AT THIS TIME BUT
THAT MAY CHANGE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE WAVE. I
BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL AT LEAST SEE A COVERING OF SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO
3 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALL
NIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND FREEZING BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -14C...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.  CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IT IS LIKELY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
ON IN THE SNOW BELT PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY AND WITH WARMER
GROUND TEMPERATURES...SNOW SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME ACCUMULATING.
HOWEVER WERE SQUALLS PERSIST 1 TO 3 INCHES ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.  TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY
AND CLIMB VERY LITTLE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.  A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH A COUPLE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR A SANDUSKY TO MARION LINE AS OF 1730Z
WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG IT. SO FAR THERE HAS
BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH THE LINE BUT IT WILL BE MONITORED. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE. OTHERWISE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. WE WILL THEN HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT IT WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL THEN MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL DIP THIS
EVENING AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT IT WILL
BE SHORT ENOUGH OF A PERIOD TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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