Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 201802
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
202 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track NE across the Central Lakes this evening
forcing a strong cold front across the forecast area. The front
will push SE of the forecast area Friday...as high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes. Low pressure will track across the
Ohio Valley Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Will be monitoring convection this afternoon and evening. Area
has seen more sun than was originally expected and cirrus is
thin. Temperatures have climbed well into the 70s and dewpoints
are into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Warm front has lifted out over
the lake and into northwest PA. Erie has recently shifted to a
south wind but lakeshore obs still northeast..it`s still nearby.
Convection developing across IN and will watch this as it
marches eastward. No change to the severe threat. Damaging wind
is primary, possibly large hail. Small tornado threat along/near
warm front. Storm motions will help limit rainfall, but many
places saw over an inch yesterday. Repeated storms into northwest
PA from this morning and into the afternoon may increase their
threat there for some flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The front will push SE of the forecast area overnight...ending the
threat of severe weather and ushering in much cooler conditions.
Temps this weekend will be normal to slightly below normal temps.

Models continue to track low pressure system across the Ohio Valley
Saturday.  Track is further to the south than ydy so have backed off
on pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models continue to advertise a more zonal flow early next week
but as is often the case, this results in timing differences. The
first short wave is progged to ride over the top of the southern
ridge on Tuesday and will probably have minimal impact on our
weather. There may be some increase in clouds and cannot rule out a
shower brushing western Lake Erie and perhaps the Toledo area.

The ECMWF begins to dig the trough over the midwest by mid week and
is more moist than the other models. The GFS and CMC remain flatter
in amplitude with a break between systems on Wednesday and leaning
in that direction with the forecast. Temperatures will warm each day
as the flow veers from east to south. Highs could push 70 by Tuesday
and should be in the 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to fill in this afternoon
and evening ahead of a low pressure system moving through the
central Great Lakes. Conditions ahead of the precipitation are
generally VFR except at ERI where a northeast wind off the lake
is maintaining low IFR stratus. This may briefly improve as
showers move through before returning for much of the afternoon.
Elsewhere breezy southwest winds gusting to 25-30 knots are
expected this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to fill in
across nw Ohio between 19-21Z and then spread eastward across
the area, initially along the warm front near Lake Erie.
Thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening have the
potential to be strong to severe with wind gusts of 40+ knots,
mainly out of the west. Heavy rainfall is also possible with
visibilities dropping below a mile in the heavier rain. TAFs
will need to be updated with better timing definition as storms
approach. A cold front will sweep east across the area tonight
bringing an end to the showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
ceilings developing.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Friday, mainly NE OH/NW PA. Non-VFR
also possible Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will lift north across Lake Erie today and conditions
will vary considerably as the front crosses the lake. The northeast
wind will veer more to the east and increase somewhat this morning,
mainly in the open waters and Canadian side of the lake. The flow
will continue to back to the southeast and south but may take much
of the day to become southerly on the eastern basin of the lake. The
south flow will increase later this afternoon and this evening ahead
of a cold front and thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon on
the western basin. The storms could bring strong winds and small
craft operators will need to give themselves time to get to shore
ahead of the storms.

The cold front will sweep across the  lake tonight and the flow will
become westerly. Winds and waves will likely build enough that a
small craft advisory will be needed east of Cleveland on Friday. The
flow will veer more from the north this weekend and to the east by
Monday. The nearshore waters may remain rather choppy but probably
stay below small craft criteria over the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Kosarik



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