Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 281407
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1007 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
Low pressure will move northeast across the Ohio Valley region
today and tonight. Weak waves of low pressure will move east
across the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday. The low pressure
system will finally move east of the area Sunday allowing high
pressure to build in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. The
high will then move southeast of the area by Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cloud cover is fairly extensive this morning. Although there are
some thin areas from Sandusky along the lakeshore to Erie,
PA...clouds will limit the temperatures today. Have cut back on
highs by just a couple/few degrees across northern OH/nw PA. Main
activity to our south will stay south of the border...but southern
tier of counties will still see a few showers/thunderstorms around
this morning. Later today hi res models indicate that a few new
showers/thunderstorms may pop up in the vicinity from Meadville
to Ravenna to Medina. Of course only a few will get
precipitation...have tweaked the pops for the afternoon to account
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly zonal flow over the forecast area today will give way to
broad troughiness by the end of the week. The persistent
troughiness will result in a series of low pressure systems that
will move east across the Ohio Valley region. This trend will keep
a threat for inclement weather going through much of this forecast
All of the computer models support a threat for some type of
shower and thunderstorm activity just about each day as the series
of low pressures move slowly through the area. Eventually, the
final wave of low pressure will push east to the eastern seaboard
by Sunday allowing high pressure to begin building into the
The storm prediction center has the forecast area outlooked for at
least general thunderstorms through the early part of the forecast
Some slightly cooler air will begin to nudge south into the
forecast area by the weekend with the high pressure. Highs will be
in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s toward the weekend.
Tweaks were made to the forecast for tonight and Friday with this
mid morning update...but above reasoning still holds.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure and drier air will expand south over the area on
Monday as the upper level trough shifts to our east. Could still see
a healthy cu deck develop in the east with lingering moisture but
overall subsidence should be on the increase and chances of an
isolated thunderstorm should be confined to areas from Youngstown
northeast into Pennsylvania. Near seasonal temperatures expected on
Monday before trending warmer through the middle of next week. The
upper level ridge is progged to expand eastward across the Southern
Great Lakes Region but long range models are struggling to resolve
energy moving around the ridge. A low 20-30 percent pop returns to
the forecast from Tuesday night on as moisture pushes back north.
Little confidence in timing any convection that may develop overhead
or move into the area from upstream at this time. Mid-levels will
be warm and will act as a limiting factor.
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Regional radars show an area of showers and thunderstorms moving
northeast across southern Ohio as moisture spreads north. The
thunderstorms will mostly remain to the south this morning but
showers are expected to clip MFD and CAK with additional
development possible this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front in
the vicinity of CAK/YNG. Despite whatever light rain arrives,
VFR conditions are expected to continue unless a thunderstorm or
heavier shower brings a brief reduction. Did not include
thunderstorms in the terminals as coverage is expected to be low
but they are possible. Ceilings will range from 5-15K today.
Satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds spreading
northeast into the area. Winds will be light through the TAF
cycle, becoming northerly with the frontal passage this evening.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Thursday evening
through Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible each morning.
Generally good marine conditions expected into next week. Lake
breezes will develop again today with onshore flow. A weak cold
front will move south across Lake Erie this evening with north to
northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots continuing into Friday. This will
result in waves increasing to the 1 to 3 foot range. Light northeast
flow will continue through the weekend as an area of high pressure
sets up north of Lake Erie and a weak area of low pressure moves
through the Ohio Valley. The high will expand south over the
lake on Monday and Tuesday.