Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 202006
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move through the forecast area
overnight and a secondary trough will follow Sunday evening. High
pressure will then be positioned across the region for much of the
week. A cold front approaches for Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The cold front itself is still back across the Indiana/Illinois
border as of 330 PM. A prefrontal trough and showers/isolated
thunder was reaching the I-75 corridor by mid afternoon. The
better support for organized severe is just not there. Lead
shortwave will continue northeast out of lower Mi and into
Ontario. By the time the main upper trough arrives it will be late
tonight. Expectation is that coverage will be best across the west
this evening...shifting east toward and after midnight. There
could be an isolated stronger cell or two this evening...but not
expecting much more than that. Cold front should reach the
Ohio/PA line by 6AM Sunday morning.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Have made adjustments for Sunday...drying it out in the morning
with immediate subsidence behind the cold front...but then
bringing back a chance of showers/isolated thunder toward evening
as wrap around moisture...surface trough...and colder air aloft
introduce showers/isolated thunder back into the forecast
primarily for the snowbelt counties. By late Sunday
afternoon/evening temperatures aloft will be cold enough to have
some lake enhancement to the showers. It will also be cooler
Sunday with highs only in the mid 70s.
Shower chances continue into Sunday evening for the snowbelt.
Moisture begins to get pinched off by Monday morning and by later
in the afternoon warm air advection and winds backing to the
southwest will take place.
Cool high pressure then resides overhead for Monday night through
Tuesday night. Lows will get comfortably down into the 50s
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will move off the East Coast by Wednesday afternoon.
This will allow the next cold front to move into the central Great
Lakes on Thursday. Models indicate that the cold front will sweep
across the region Thursday night into early Friday. Best shower and
thunderstorm chances will be Thursday night. Cloud cover will knock
temperatures back several degrees on Thursday with highs in the
lower 80s, then finish the week off with highs near seasonal
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Scattered to broken cumulus will continue through the afternoon. A
few showers/thunderstorms may be possible closer to the OH/PA
border through the afternoon. Will also monitor the leading edge
of show showers/thunderstorms moving into NW OH. These may clip
KTOl and KFDY before lifting northeast onto Lake Erie. The main
show will be along the cold front/outflow boundary as it moves
eastward across the area. It appears this will move into NW Ohio
around 00Z and then near KCLE around 02Z and KERI and KYNG around
03Z. Expect to see MVFR/IFR conditions with the thunder and then
for several hours in the wake of the front. Ceilings will attempt
to lift to low end VFR by Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible for inland locations Tuesday
through Thursday mornings in fog.
Southwest winds will increase tonight as a cold front moves toward
Lake Erie. Have hoisted a small craft advisory for the eastern
2/3rds of the lake starting 08z tonight. The western basin will get
close to the criteria but will hold off for now. Best chances of
needing a small craft around the Islands will be sunrise to around
mid afternoon. Later shifts can monitor this potential. Cooler air
flowing across the lake combined with showers Sunday night into
Monday morning could lead to some waterspouts. For now will leave
them out of the grids but will mention the potential in the HWO.
High pressure will take control of the area by Monday afternoon with
light winds expected. The high will gradually shift eastward off the
East Coast by Wednesday afternoon. This will allow for lake
breeze/land breeze to influence the winds Monday through Tuesday.
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT Sunday through late
Sunday night for OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT Sunday through late
Sunday night for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for