Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281635
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1235 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EFFECTING THE REGION WILL PULL
AWAY TO THE EAST TODAY WITH CONDITIONS STARTING TO DRY OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD
WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY EAST OF OLEAN. STILL SEEING SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. MORE SHOWERY
WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THESE BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NW
OHIO HAS ALREADY HAD SUNSHINE AND WARMED INTO THE 70S WHILE ACROSS
THE EAST CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUD STARTS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
INTO THE LOW 50S...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVER THE MOIST GROUND. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MOST
AREAS EXCEPT IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN. EXPECTING QPF TO BE
NEAR A HALF INCH IN SOME AREAS BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS
SEEING UP TO AN INCH. THIS WOULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING
PROBLEMS...MAINLY IN NW OHIO WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL OCCURRED ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE LOCATED...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A SMALL FLOOD
WATCH FOR ESPECIALLY SATURATED AREAS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 50-60
PERCENT POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z THU BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UL TROF
BROADENING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH THEN SUGGEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF BROADER TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS IS NOT CONSISTENT BETWEEN
THE 2 MODELS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU AND CHANCE 30 TO 40 POPS ON FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SFC BNDRY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...FOR NOW...WHICH IS WHERE
MOST THE OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
INITIALLY. THE GFS SHOWS A LOW RIDING UP THAT BOUNDARY TOWARDS
NORTHERN OHIO FRI NIGHT...THEN DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT MORNING.

BY SUN THE PRIMARY TROF DRAWS POLEWARD ALLOWING AN UL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SUN NIGHT YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CURRENT
LOCATION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE OF LAKE ERIE NEAR THE
OHIO PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE
LOW. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW OCCURRING FROM CLE AND
MFD...EAST. THIS IS WHERE LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY BE RESTRICTED AS
WELL WITH SHOWERS AND BR. OF NOTE...SHOWERS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN
THEY WERE JUST 6 TO 8 HOURS AGO ACROSS THE TOL AND FDY TERMINALS.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE SHOWERS WORK EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHARP CLEARING CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS INDIANA AND MOST OF ILLINOIS. TOL
IS ALREADY VFR AND FDY WILL FOLLOW SUITE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
2. CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING ERI AND YNG TO CLEAR UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXPECTED MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 3 AM.

EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WILLOWICK EAST THROUGH 4 PM AS
THE FLOW BECOMES NWLY ACROSS LE BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW.

ALSO INCLUDED MAUMEE TO THE ISLANDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT WITH 4 FOOT
WAVES EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE NEARSHORE FROM THE EARLIER GALES
OVER THE OPEN LAKE.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT GOES UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...THOUGH WAVES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST
TOWARDS ERIE PA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES ON FRIDAY...BUT
THIS TIME AROUND IT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ003-007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS


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