Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 210132
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
932 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016
High pressure and no change in airmass will keep temperatures
above normal through the end of the work week. A cold front will
sink southward Friday night and return temperatures to closer to
normals for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Current forecast is on track. Only minor changes have been made
to cloud cover and hourly temperatures to reflect current trends.
All that could come from a dissipating front across the area was
a subtle wind shift and a few clouds across far northwest OH to
southern Ontario today. High pressure will build over the area
tonight. We will see temperatures similar to last night with clear
skies and light winds.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The jet stream will remain to our north and the cooler air will
remain across eastern Canada for a few more days. An upper low
across the inter mountain west and the resultant building ridge
across the Mississippi Valley will keep us status quo through
Friday. With H8 temperatures about as warm as they can get this
time of year and a little more drying each day...we could see
highs into the upper 80s. Most stations have a 90+ record
Wed/Thu/Fri. It would not take too much to get a site or two to
90 before weeks end. Sunshine will be plentiful and only be on the
fringes of the mid/high clouds to our north from a lingering
west-east frontal boundary across the central Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday. That front will finally be pushed south and
southwestward into our area as the pattern continues to amplify.
Timing is not for sure yet and moisture remains somewhat scant.
Will keep it slow and let temperatures stay warm Friday even up
into nw PA. Will have just a small chance of showers for Friday
night...20 to 30 percent chance.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lot`s of uncertainty develops during the long term period as the
upper pattern amplifies with troughing in the western U.S. and
ridging in the east. First things first...a few showers will be
possible downwind of the lake early Saturday in the cold air
advection flow. However...by early afternoon it should be dry
enough aloft to end the precip threat. Sunday looks quiet with
seasonable temps. After that model solutions diverge and forecaster
confidence is very low today. The GFS breaks the ridge down on
Monday with an upper wave forcing a cold front across the area. The
ECMWF maintains the ridge a while longer and keeps the area dry
through Tuesday. The models have been flip flopping all week from
day to day so expect the real solution is somewhere between the two
models. Will put a small mention for showers in for now and leave
it at that. Given the uncertainty have not strayed too far from
guidance for temps.
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Aside from some patchy mvfr br toward daybreak...VFR conditions
under mainly clear skies will continue through the forecast
Quiet weather will continue on the lake as high pressure builds over
the region for the remainder of the week. Easterly flow will
develop overnight. The high will eventually slide off to the east
on Wednesday with light flow returning. Light and variable winds
are then expected Thursday into Friday. Another strong high will
push a front south across the lake by the start of the weekend with
northerly flow developing. We could get close to small craft
criteria for a time on Saturday. The high will move off to the
northeast on Sunday with easterly flow returning. With the
exception of Friday night into Saturday...precip chances are
minimal during the period.