Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
633 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Warm front will lift across Lake Erie this morning as low
pressure moves over the Upper Great Lakes. The low will continue
to move northeast across Ontario pushing a cold front across the
region this evening into the overnight. High pressure will
briefly ridge into the area from the Ohio River Valley on
Monday. As this high moves east of the area on Tuesday it will
allow the next storm system to drift into the central Great
Lakes impacting the weather Wednesday into Thursday.


Only made minor changes to the temperatures grids to reflect
current trends.

Rain continues to expand into NW Ohio as anticipated. This area
should begin to drift eastward through the morning.

Previous Discussion...
Warm advection combined with some diffluent flow to the west of
the eastward moving upper level ridge will allow showers and
thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the day. The
showers/thunderstorms will continue into the evening but will
begin to decrease in coverage in the wake of a cold front that
will cross the region. The front should nudge the rainfall east
of NW Ohio by 6 pm.

Cloud cover and periods of rain should keep instability across
the region in check. This and the better shear moving across the
central and western Great Lakes with the area of low pressure
should be enough to keep thunderstorms from becoming severe. One
thing to watch for is some training of storms across the
eastern half of the County Warning Area (CWA). Confidence is low
in this occurring but the possibility of locally heavy rainfall
will exist.

Coolest areas will be across the east today where the most
persistent rainfall should occur. Highs should be within a
couple degrees of 70. Elsewhere middle 70s will be possible.


Cold front will cross the region through the overnight hours
and should nudge the remaining showers and thunderstorms east
into NY and central PA by 12Z Monday. There could be a few
lingering showers across NE Ohio and NW PA Monday morning but
all locations should be dry for the afternoon. High pressure
will ridge across the area from the Ohio River Valley Monday
afternoon. It will quickly move eastward on Tuesday reaching
Eastern NY state. This will allow the next storm system to move
into the western Great Lakes. Models are trending a bit slower
with the eastward progression of this storm system as we wait
for an area of low pressure to clear the east coast of the US.
This may be enough to keep the region dry into Tuesday night.
The best chances for showers will be Wednesday into Wednesday
night as the upper low drifts eastward through the Great Lakes.

Slight cool down for Monday with mid 60s to near 70 expected.
Warmer Tuesday ahead of the next area of low pressure with highs
back into the 70s. Cooler again on Wednesday as thicker cloud
cover and showers spread across the region. Highs mid 60s
across the west to near 70 east.


The slow moving low/upper low will still be over or near the area
Thu producing below normal temps and sct shra. The threat for shra
will lessen for Fri as weak high pressure works across the cwa. The
models show the next s/w moving ene into the lakes by late Sat with
a band of warm advection moisture and spotty qpf spreading into the
area so will increase pops. Temps should recover back to about
normal by Sat.


.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
All models differ some in how the convection is handled thru Sunday
so confidence low in timing of possible thunder and areas of lowers
cigs and vsbys. Will use latest radar info with near term model
input to try and time convection for next few hours then broad brush
rest of forecast using only vcsh/vcts. More certain that cold front
will push east across the area tonight ending the threat for
shra/tsra from west to east. The last of the frontal precip will
probably be clearing the ERI area by 08z although colder air moving
in aloft could allow for some lingering lake effect shra into Mon
morning there.

SE winds 10 to 20 knots will veer to south at 15 to 25 knots the
rest of tonight into the morning then turn west late today and
tonight at 10 to 20 knots as the cold front passes.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible again Tue night thru Thu.


Winds of mainly 10 to 20 knots from the SE will be veering around to
the south then west today into tonight as a warm front then cold
front cross the lake. There could be a period of near SCA conditions
Monday for the east half of the lake but then winds diminish some
into Monday night. A slow moving low will move near the lake late
Tue into Thu producing changeable winds that generally should be
under 15 knots that should set up from the west to nw late Thu.




NEAR TERM...Mullen
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