Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 131916
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
316 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the forecast area will slide east and
move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Tuesday. A weak cold front will
push across the area Friday morning.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure centered over the forecast area will remain over the
area overnight.   The only weather to contend with tonight will be
area of dense cirrus that will overspread the area this evening.
Expect temps to be a couple of degrees warmer than this morning with
the additional cloud cover.   Expect some patchy fog toward daybreak
but not as widespread or dense as this morning due to the clouds and
drier air pushing in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure shifts East allowing for a
gradual rise in temps.   At the upper levels ridge builds over the
Great Lakes Wednesday in response to deepening west coast trough.
should keep area high and dry though mid week.

Surface high will shift east allowing for a more southerly flow to
develop over the region. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s given a
fair amount of sun. The southerly flow will increase dewpoints by 10
degrees from their current levels. The models are hinting at
convection, which continues to be overdone in this dry regime.
However there will be lake breeze convergence which could be
sufficient to produce a few isolated storms given no capping
inversion.

For Wednesday a warm front could spark a few storms as airmass
remains moist and unstable. With cyclonic flow aloft and lowering
heights the best chance will be during the afternoon. Shear however
remains weak suggesting any development is likely to be sub-severe.
The best chance will be in the west where the moisture convergence
is highest. PWATs are expected to increase to around 2" by the
afternoon. Temperatures will once again be in the mid-80s. Models
often have biases during dry periods resulting in underestimates of
the latent heating/daytime highs and overestimates in the coverage
of precipitation. Tried to account for these biases in the forecast.
With hit and miss storms much of the area may remain dry until the
more organized system Thur/Fri. &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging currently over the western U.S. will move east into the area
on Thursday. Meanwhile a trough and cold front extending down from
the upper lakes will move into the region. This could be a trigger
for more organized scattered afternoon storms as shear becomes
stronger. Timing on this feature varies notably in the models
reducing confidence.

 A weak low pressure system will move across the lakes on Thursday.
This system will drag a cold front across the forecast area Thursday
night into Friday.  The models currently show scattered convection
with the frontal passage.  Weak high pressure will briefly build
over the region on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
only patchy br toward daybreak as high pressure remains over the
forecast area. High pressure will remain over the area into mid
week.

OUTLOOK...Patchy BR possible each morning. Areas of Non-VFR possible
Wednesday evening through Thursday with scattered storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and small waves expected over the next few days as high
pressure remains centered over the area. SW flow will increase in
advance of a cold front on Thursday, but will remain below small
craft threshold.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/Jamison
LONG TERM...Jamison/Oudeman
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Jamison


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