Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 212226
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
626 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017
An arctic cold front will drop south across the area this
evening and overnight. High pressure will move southeast from
the Canadian Plains across the area Wednesday night. Another
cold front will sag south into the area by Saturday then a
series of lows will move northeast along the front across the
region Saturday through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Did tweak hourly temperatures, but otherwise forecast on track.
Previous discussion...Upper disturbance well noted on W/V
imagery near KDVN will track southeast this evening, passing to
the south of the forecast area. This will bring an increase in
cloud cover, especially across the southern half of the forecast
area. Kept conditions dry for the area with the shortwave given
upstream obs, considerably and increasingly dry boundary layer
and model trends.
Arctic front will push south through the region overnight,
accompanied by gusty north winds and rapidly falling temperatures.
Continued with slight chance pops for the snow belt after 06Z, with
850mb temps falling to -16C and decent 925mb moisture. However, not
expecting much in the way of accumulations at this point, as any
precip should come and go quickly, and precip shouldn`t amount to
too much with very dry sub cloud layer.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Arctic airmass will be well entrenched across the region Wednesday
as high pressure slides southeast across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will struggle to reach 30 across NW PA and far NE OH,
but low to mid 30s will be common elsewhere. Any lingering lake
effect snow should end by mid morning. Went several degrees colder
for lows Wednesday night as radiational cooling should dominate
under ridge axis centered over the eastern part of the area.
Forecasting lows in the low to mid teens east/upper teens west,
which is closer to MOS guidance vs. raw guidance. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few favored spots reach single digits. WAA/return
flow sets up Thursday as ridge shifts east. Temps Thursday should
rebound into the 40s for much of the area.
Next appreciable chance for precip comes Thursday night as warm
front lifts north into the region. Showers expected to arrive during
the evening with the best chances across the northern half of the
area after 06Z through about 15Z Friday, especially near Lake Erie.
May be some p-type issues at the initial onset, but leaning towards
column rising entirely above freezing by the time the precip
arrives. Front should push north of most of the area Friday, with
temperatures surging into the 60s for most of northern Ohio and into
the 50s across far NE OH and NW PA. Expecting mainly dry conditions
in the warm sector most of Friday afternoon and evening.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Area is finally in the warm sector by daybreak Saturday as the warm
front NE of the forecast area. High temps rise into the lower to mid
60s over most of the area. But rain is on the way as upper level
low tracks into the area. Track of the low a little slower and
further north than yesterday. Both models track low into Michigan
by Sunday evening...then east of the area on Monday. As for precip
expect precip to make it into NW Oh Saturday afternoon or evening
with rain shower spreading across the entire area Saturday night.
Shower should linger through Sunday and gradually end from the West
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Last of the fog is finally dissipating. Tonight a cold front
will push south across the area. limited moisture so do not expect
any precip...although a few flurries in the East not out of the
question. Expect MVFR cigs to spread over the East half of the
forecast area tonight ahead of the front. Gusty north winds
will develop behind the front. Tomorrow high pressure will build
SE over the area.
Light northwest winds on the lake will turn to the North and
increase to 15-25 knots overnight as a cold front pushes south of
the lake. Small Craft Advisory in effect until Wednesday morning.
Winds and waves diminish quickly on Wednesday as large area of
Canadian High Pressure builds SE over the Lake. The high will track
SE across the Great Lakes and move off the SE coast Thursday night.
Winds turn to the south as the high shifts east of the Lake. Showers
with the chance of thunderstorms are expected this weekend as an
upper level low tracks across the Lower Great Lakes. Exact track
of the low still in doubt at this time.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>149.