Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 220300
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016
Low pressure over West Virginia will move to the east coast
tonight. A weak cold front over the northern Great Lakes will
drop across the area on Sunday. High pressure will build southeast
across the area Monday and Tuesday. The high will shift to the
southeastern states on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Removed the remaining showers from the overnight forecast except
in inland Erie and Crawford counties PA where a shower or some
drizzle may linger. Clearing has made good progress across
northwest Ohio. Patches of mid and high clouds will continue to
spill across parts of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.
Made a few more minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures and
dew points based on the current trends but essentially no changes
to the overnight low temperature forecast. No other changes for
the overnight update.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Was hoping for a dry end to the weekend but that doesn`t look like
it is going to happen. An upper trough will rotate southeast
across the area late tomorrow morning. Expect some showers to
develop over the eastern half to third of the area. There appears
to be about a six hour Window for precip with ridging at the
surface and drier air finally winning out. The rest of the period
will be dry as high pressure dominates the region. Temps will be a
tad warmer Sunday than today but by Tuesday readings will actually
be above normal. The models have differences with the next shot of
precip toward mid week. ECMWF continues to bring showers back into
western areas by 12z Wed. The other guidance is slower and have
slowed the precip down some. Better chances will come during the
long term period.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A s/w trough is shown to be pushing NE into the upper ridge over
the area on Wed bringing moisture into the area which should lead
to an increasing chc for shra/tsra. Weak upper disturbances
continue ride the same track Thu thru Sat which will continue a
threat for sct shra/tsra each day. Temps will finally be warmer
thru the periods as winds stay mainly from the south.
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Surface low pressure has moved off the middle Atlantic Coast with
some residual moisture and lift near an upper level low that was
located over western PA. Still some ifr/mvfr cloud cover located
near the Ohio/PA border and inland NW PA. Believe this will be
short lived as the showers move east of the region. Already seeing
vfr conditions across the remaining portion of the area with skies
clearing across NW OH. This clearing will slowly progress eastward
through the overnight hours with winds becoming light and variable
at most locations. If the clearing reaches KCAK and KYNG areas soon
enough there could be some mvfr fog around sunrise. Cloud cover will
spread back into the region after sunrise but should remain VFR
through the day. However we will need to monitor the cloud cover
that develops along a cold front that will move across Northern
OH and NW PA sunday afternoon. There is a chance of some mvfr
cloud cover along it as it passes over KMFD, KCAK and KYNG. Did
not mention any showers in the TAF`s at this point but they will
be possible near he frontal boundary.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra Wed and Thu.
Winds will continue to back around from the NE to the NW tonight
then generally stay NW to N Sun thru Mon. A ridge of high
pressure moves ESE across the lake Mon night into early Wed to
produce light and variable winds that finally turn to the south
for Wed thru Thu. Wind speeds should stay 15 knots or less.