Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 120426
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1226 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.  A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT CAUSING SOME
CLOUDS. SOME SPRINKLES OCCURRED AT DFI JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADDED
A THREAT OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUDS ADJUSTED SOME OF THE LOWS UP A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
INDICATE THAT MOST OF SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A WARM FRONT IS
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
OVER NW OH BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY JUMP INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ON SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A 850MB JET WILL MOVE INTO NW OH AROUND
06Z SUN. THIS JET WILL INTERSECT THE WARM FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SUNDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLOOKED. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE
DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT CONVECTION.
SUNDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNDER A POOL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN LOWER TO
MID 70S. HOWEVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL CU ARE DISSIPATING HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NRN INDIANA AND WILL NEED TO WATCH MOVEMENT FOR KTOL AND KFDY
TAFS. FOR NOW PUT IN VCSH. STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN IF
SHOWERS MOVE IN. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING THE 10-12KFT DECK TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. SATURDAY BROUGHT IN SCATTERED CUMULUS
AROUND 5KFT FOR THE DAY WITH BKN CIGS 25KFT. BY LATE AFTERNOON
CAPES AND MOISTURE INCREASE FAR WEST SO WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO KTOL/KFDY VCNTY AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND BE
LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
THEN ALLOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL APPROACH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN






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