Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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626
FXUS61 KCLE 110005
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME. MULTIBAND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT WITH WNW FLOW
VEERING TO NW. THE MESOSCALE MODELS APPEAR TO BE CHALLENGED WITH
PREDICTING QPF ACROSS THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT.

BEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN GEAUGA AND INLAND ERIE COUNTY PA.
WITH MULTIBAND LES...INTENSE BURSTS OF SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME AND WILL HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY ONE SPOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE
CURRENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT CONCLUDES BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY  NIGHT AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AND FLOWS BACKS AROUND TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
ALLOWS ANY BANDS TO MIGRATE UP THE COAST. THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS
STILL SO COLD THAT EVEN WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY THERE WILL
STILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAINLY OFFSHORE WHICH COULD
SAG INTO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND DROP THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE TO FRIGID READINGS OF -24 TO -27C WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS REGION AND LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THIS WINTER.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BARELY BUDGE WITH THIS INTENSE
COOLING ALOFT. EXPECT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LAKE HURON TO
DEVELOP AND EXTEND SOUTH AND SLICE ACROSS I-90 OVER ASHTABULA AND
EXTREME WESTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTY PA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE BAND WILL THEN GRADUALLY PIVOT TO THE EAST DURING
THE WEEKEND. THE BAND WILL LIKELY BE QUITE NARROW BUT INTENSE.
ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT FRIGID QUIET CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BR WRAPPING UP QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF COMING OUT OF THE DEEP COLD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMALS BY MONDAY. A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BE ON THE
HORIZON FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A NUMBER OF
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE DETAILS. FOR NOW WE KEEP THE GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH SYSTEMS ORIGINATING FROM
WESTERN CANADA MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP GENERIC
30-50 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THOUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 04Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
VARY FROM 6 MILES OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z AND
WE SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THAT
HAS BEEN ENHANCING SNOW SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT ERI WHERE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT THEN INCREASE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR ALTHOUGH IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT
TOL/FDY/MFD AFTER 05Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20+
KNOTS AT TOL/FDY/CLE THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY AT ERI.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. NON VFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OFTEN
PUSHING 30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE WITH A WIDE
OPEN LAKE IN THE LOWER 30S. NOMOGRAMS SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
SPRAY TONIGHT...JUST SHY OF THE EXTREME THAT IS NEEDED FOR A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR. NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS IS
FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE GET MARGINAL GALES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THIS
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WIND. BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WINDS CALM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND THE FREEZING SPRAY THREAT ENDS. AT
THIS POINT THE LAKE IS PRIMED TO FREEZE AND AN ICE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS. SUN/MON WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
BEGIN TO COME OUT OF THE SSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ011-
     012-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ013-
     014.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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