Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280116
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR
CLE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ENE.
FLOODING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL CONTINUING IN NWRN
CO`S. HRRR HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO ALLOWING FOR THIS PATCH OF
RAIN TO ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY 06Z AS IF SHIFTS EASTWARD. SCT
CONVECTION IN THE EAST STILL CONTINUES BUT CELLS ON THE SMALL SIDE
SO ONLY EXPECT MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THERE.

COULD PUSH THE EDGE AND CHOP OUT A FEW CO`S IN NE OH FROM THE FLOOD
WATCH AND GET AWAY WITH IT. HOWEVER...JUST TOO MUCH DYNAMICS PRESENT
TO TAKE THAT CHANCE...BESIDES SOME AREAS STILL HAVE SOME MINOR
FLOODING TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE CREEKS AND RIVERS.

SEE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES.

THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
DIMINISH AND GRADUAL DIMINISHING WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS UNDER THE CALM WITH THE LOW WILL SEE WINDS COME UP
SOME AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD ONLY GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. AGAIN RAIN
CHANCES HIGH...BUT FOR MUCH LESS RAINFALL...JUST A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OR SO. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AREAS
ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW PA LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. FURTHER WEST SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL YIELD AN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

AREA WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MI AND
INTO ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH UPPER
SUPPORT. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEEDED ALREADY BY MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. OF COURSE AFTER ALL OF
THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD MORE WILL JUST KEEP THINGS SATURATED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A
HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY EXCESSIVE
CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER AND MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY ON HOW
FAR NORTH LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTOUCHED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE BASICALLY OVER KCLE AT 00Z WITH WARM SECTOR SHOWERS
IN NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WHILE TO THE WEST MODERATE TO HEAVY WRAP
AROUND RAIN AFFECTING TOLEDO AND ABOUT TO AFFECT FINDLAY. WINDS
ALSO A FACTOR WITH NWRN OHIO SEEING NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
KNOTS WHILE TO THE EAST FLOW IS LIGHT AND FRONT THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 06Z AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. EXPECTING THE WRAP AROUND RAIN IN
NWRN OHIO TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS EAST
HALF SHIFTING NORTHWEST. WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z
WEST THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY WHILE THE EAST HALF WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR OR LOWER.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXPECTED MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN AS GALES
PUSHED WATER ONSHORE. REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE INDICATE THAT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLOODING ACROSS OTTAWA AND PORTIONS OF LUCAS
COUNTIES. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW DRIFTS UP THE LAKESHORE. HAVE MODIFIED THE GALE WARNING
FOR JUST THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER WAVES AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FROM CLEVELAND TO
RIPLEY. WAVES ABOVE 4 FOOT ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL
KEEP THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT GOING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WITH ITS WIND SHIFT. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-007-
     009>012-089.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>019-
     022-023-033-089.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ003-007-009.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN


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