Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 202216
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
616 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY FOR THE MANDATORY 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WE NEVER REALLY MADE IT THAT FAR WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY. CLE DID
MAKE IT TO 50 DURING THE DAY...THE HIGH OF 51 WAS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THAT WAS IT.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WILL BLANKET THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS AREA OF RAIN SLIDES EAST
IT WILL ENCOUNTER QUITE A DRY AIRMASS...BEING RE-ENFORCED BY THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH. EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO STAY DRY
TONIGHT OR AT MOST HAVE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS FALL. WILL LIKELY
HAVE RADAR RETURNS...BUT VIRGA FALLING. THE BEST CHANCES AT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE FROM FINDLAY ACROSS TO MANSFIELD AND
MOUNT VERNON.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND NW PA TO LOWER
40S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PRIMARILY A CLOUD AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE COOL TROUGH LINGERS ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SYSTEM OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY...ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT COOL A BIT LONGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE
ADDED A SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY. AGAIN THIS
MAY BE A CASE OF JUST SOME SPRINKLES. WILL GET SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN LATE FRIDAY. NOT TOO EXCITED
FOR TEMPERATURES. NORMAL NOW IS 70 FOR HIGHS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
TO EXCEED THAT UNTIL MAYBE SATURDAY FOR MARION/FINDLAY/TOLEDO.

STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE AREA...INLAND NE OH AND NW PA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECTING CLEARING/CLEAR SKIES SO
THIS WOULD BE AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
THE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH AN INCREASING FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION AND THE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE FACTORS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING THE JET ENERGY
THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SO WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY
AND THE FACT THAT HEIGHTS ARE RATHER HIGH WE WILL NOT GO WITH MORE
THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. ANY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
FROM KMFD TO KCAK TO KYNG. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO AT THESE LOCATIONS
AS WE AWAIT THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNSET BUT SHOULD SLOWLY
DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FOR THE KFDY
AND KMFD AREAS. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO LOW END VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
IF THE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO RIDGE TOWARD
LAKE ERIE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORK TOGETHER TO INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LONGER
FETCH PRODUCED BY A NORTHWEST WIND COULD BE ENOUGH TO NUDGE WAVES UP
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY FROM CLEVELAND TO
RIPLEY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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