Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 051147
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
647 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front is on our doorstep this morning. This will
begin a step down in temperatures across the region as
reinforcing troughs continue to bring and keep the colder air
in place through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No changes with the early morning update. Previous
discussion...Temperatures have been holding steady through the
night. Showers and even a few rumbles of thunder are now working
eastward across the area ahead of the front. Southerly winds
have gusted close to 40 knots, but have remained below that 40
knot threshold in all primary observation points except one
occasion at BKL. Looking at guidance for the rest of today
including the HRRRE, early morning gusts subside just a bit.
They look to then hold between 30 and just shy of 40 knots
through early evening. Only area really concerned with for the
possibility of exceeding 40 knots would be northwest OH. Not
enough confidence that they will exceed this multiple times
today so no wind advisory issued.

Precipitation will move east rather quickly today as all rain.
Significant drying and subsidence follow in the wake of the
front today. The temperature drop will really hold until mid to
late afternoon and evening. It will remain breezy through the
night and wind chills will be in the upper teens by Wednesday
morning. Lows will dip into the 20s away from the lake.

While the cold air continues to spread across the region, the
flow locally remains southwest keeping the developing lake
effect snows out over the lake. Only have mentionable snow
chances very near to the lakeshore late tonight and early
Wednesday. The approach of an upstream trough will back the
winds even further for Wednesday afternoon. A bit of energy
rounds the base of the upper trough Wednesday and we may get a
few flurries/light snow showers spread east from northwest OH to
north central Ohio through the day Wednesday. That temporarily
puts a stop to the cold air advection and have brought up highs
a couple of degrees in the mid/upper 30s. By late afternoon
Wednesday expect light snow showers to begin to expand across
the snowbelt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to show southwest flow veering to a more westerly
direction across the region ahead of an upper trough moving through
the central lakes. Main concern here will be the lake effect snow
which should be ongoing but mostly offshore. With the direction
change would expect the band to move onshore across northeast OH and
northwest PA Wednesday evening following BUFKIT timing and then
continuing through the night before lifting (mostly) offshore again
Thursday morning as winds again back to southwest. Drew in roughly 3
to 6 inches for an overnight accum in the snowbelt. Thursday
moisture ahead of the approaching upper trough axis moves across
the area. Would expect a general light snow in the area and will
keep higher pops right along the northern portion of the snowbelt.
Friday models show slightly drier air across the area and southwest
flow which will take any lake effect offshore.  Friday night will
bring chance pops back.  Models differ in placement with a
developing upper wave however both show moisture and a trough moving
through. Temps will remain well below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models continue to show a rapid evolution of upper troughs across
the area although there is enough timing differences to limit
confidence in any one period. Will continue with chance pops most
places and chance to likely in the snowbelt.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Cold front has reached TOL as of 1130Z. Widespread VFR/MVFR
showers ahead of the front and a narrow band of MVFR behind the
front. Front will steadily march eastward this morning and area
of MVFR will be progressive as well. Southerly winds will gust
near 30 knots and then shift west- southwest with gusts of 30 to
35 knots for the remainder of the daytime hours. Locations near
the lakeshore and across northwest OH may get close to 40 knots.
Temperatures will drop today with locations beginning to hit
the freezing mark after 00Z Wednesday. VFR expected tonight
although lake effect snow showers will begin to develop offshore
of ERI overnight.

OUTLOOK...Lake effect shsn expected near KERI Tue night, a
little more widespread starting Wed and even more widespread
later Fri and Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Will continue with headlines as they are taking the small craft
advisory through the afternoon and gales east two thirds through
tonight. A strong cold front will move east across the lake early
this morning.  South to southwest winds to 30 knots will be ahead of
the front. Winds will turn west to southwest behind the front
decreasing initially to 20 to 25 knots this morning before
increasing back to 30 knots this afternoon.  This evening and
overnight expect southwest winds to reach 35 knot gales and then
decrease to 30 knots Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday expect
west to southwest flow to continue at 15 to 25 knots through the
period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Wednesday
     for LEZ145>147-165>167.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ145>149.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday
     for LEZ148-149-168-169.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...TK



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