Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 140558
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
158 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge over the Ohio Valley will weaken Saturday. A
low will move northeast across the Great Lakes Sunday pulling a cold
front through the area. High pressure will spread east over the
region Sunday night and Monday and should last into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...Convergence showing up as a persistent area of clouds
from Trumbull and Ashtabula county east into nwrn PA this
evening. This convergence shifts into PA early tonight and then
weakens to expect the clouds will shift east and then thin
through the overnight. Still, likely worth a mostly cloudy
forecast for PA. Also put a trend into Ashtabula sky cover. To
the northwest satellite also shows clouds across lower MI and
western Lake Erie moving southeast. These could impact north
coast into northeast OH but for now will continue with PC most
areas.

Original...Weak upper ridging will be over the area into Sat
before shifting off to the east Sat night. The models still keep
the stalling cold front far enough to the NW that conditions
may stay dry until the end of Sat night when the front will
start to get pulled SE toward the NWRN counties. Will still keep
a small chc pop in the far NW Sat as the nose of the low level
jet not that far to the north.

The other issue of concern will be the cloud cover as low level
winds from the south may not be strong enough to flush out the low
level moisture tonight, especially in the east. On the other hand,
patchy fog will probably form where the clouds clear out. On
average. Sat should end up being partly cloudy for most of the area
then cloud will be on the increase later Sat night.

Lows tonight will again be mainly in the 50s, but rebound nicely on
Sat to the mid to upper 70s. Increasing south winds and cloud cover
will lead to a warmer night Sat night with lows probably only into
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will move across the region on Sunday. However the cold
front is slightly slower with the latest model runs. This may allow
for slightly better instability ahead of the front. So have added a
slight chance of thunder back to the forecast. Winds will be the
main story with gusts 35 to 40 mph possible. Cooler in the wake of
the front on Monday with some lake effect showers possible. Drier a
ir arrives on Monday as high pressure increases its influence. It
will then remain dry into Tuesday.

Sunday will see highs in the 70s. Cooler on Monday with most
locations remaining in the 50s. MOnday morning may end up being
frosty for much of the area away from the lake. Warmer on Tuesday
with 60 to 65 degrees common.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the area throughout the long term. Highs
will be around 70 degrees each day with abundant sunshine. Lows will
start out cooler Tuesday night with temps dipping into the lower
40s, but lows will rebound to the upper 40s and lower 50s for the
remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
All TAF sites starting off VFR at 06Z. Winds are light and
expect MFD/CAK/YNG to have MVFR visibilities at times
overnight, especially if winds go calm. TOL may also see MVFR
visibilites but increasing mid-level clouds may limit potential
of patchy fog in NW Ohio. VFR conditions expected after 13Z for
all sites with sct mid and high clouds today. Winds develop out
of the south at 5-10 knots although a lake breeze is possible
late this afternoon at ERI. Winds increase aloft overnight and
have introduced low level wind sheer to the western terminals.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR and strong winds with a strong cold front Sunday.
Non-VFR across northeast OH/nw PA Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be light on the lake tonight. Southerly winds will
increase by Saturday afternoon. As a cold front moves closer to the
area Saturday night into Sunday southwesterly winds will increase.
By sunrise SUnday morning winds may be high enough to need a small
craft advisory. Just ahead of and in the wake of the cold front
Sunday afternoon winds may increase close to 35 knot gales. This
will need to be monitored by later shifts. Northwesterly winds will
remain strong enough to likely need a small craft into mid day of
Monday. Southwesterly winds should return to the lake by Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/TK
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Mullen



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