Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240709
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
309 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND THEN DISSIPATING AS THEY BUMP INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS
WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD STILL BE ABLE
TO CALL IT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. TEMPS
REALLY STRUGGLED ON SATURDAY AND THE NEW GUIDANCE IS A LOT COOLER
THAN FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST AREAS WILL GET TO THE
MIDDLE 60S WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
GETS GONE. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER IN THE NORTH. THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN IT DID THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. WAS HOPING THAT WE COULD SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY
BUT THAT APPEARS IN JEOPARDY NOW AS THE MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING
IN THE PRECIP. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND FOLLOWED THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE MODELS HANDLING THE LOW HEADING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH 18Z BUT WILL THEN BRING IN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT THE PRECIP WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT TO THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL
REALLY DROP CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL NOT BE AN OVERLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME CAPE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SMALL CHANCE
POPS GOING TILL THE FRONT LEAVES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AM THEN
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. CURRENT
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUN TRACK THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND A CHANCE OF TSRA FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TAKING
THE PRECIP WITH IT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LIGHT NE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST...BUT THEN A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.  NE FLOW WILL TRY AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF LAKE ERIE.  BUT THEN EXPECT
A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.   WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OHIO ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 TO 20
KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB



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