Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 280546
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal through the
holiday weekend. Hot and humid conditions will support a chance
for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and again on Sunday. A
upper low will pass by the region Sunday Night with drier
conditions early next week. Temperatures will cool off a few
degrees with a drop in the humidity.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Only made minor changes to hourly temperature and sky conditions
to reflect current trends.
Cumulus field is already starting to decrease in coverage this
evening. Since there has not been a good low level focus for
thunderstorms to develop on it has remained dry. Not even the lake
breeze convergence has been enough to generate anything under the
upper level ridging that is in place across the region. So at
this point plan on keeping the dry forecast for tonight. Fewer
clouds than last night and light winds should allow temperatures
to dip a degree or 2 cooler than last night.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will once again start off in the mid to upper 60s
on Saturday. With no notable change in the thermal profiles we can
expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Models indicate a
moistening of the mid and lower levels sufficient to support
scattered convection. Diurnal heating will quickly destabilize the
environment and trigger pulse thunderstorms. The wind profiles do
not show enough shear for organized convection so not anticipating
severe storms. The scattered nature of the thunderstorms will mean
a number of areas will receive little to no rain, while areas that
are impacted could see moderate to briefly heavy rain.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early in this period the models are in good agreement with weak
ridging aloft over region with fair weather expected. Forecast
confidence decreases toward the end of the week as the gfs builds a
blocking ridge along the east coast and develops a slowly digging
trough over the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile the ECMWF has a
different solution with a more progressive active northern jet
stream along the northern tier of states that moves a cold front
across the region towards the end of the week. will use the blended
guidance with minor adjusts.
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A touch of MVFR fog/mist or haze possible early this morning but
the south wind at 5-8 knots and several degrees dew point
depression should keep fog it to a minimum. Still no real trigger
for showers or thunderstorms today. There can certainly be some
activity this afternoon...the 850 mb wind will be 5 to 10 knots
higher than yesterday...but other than the warm temps and some
instability...cannot pin down a time or place where thunderstorms
would be most likely. Will leave it out of the TAF forecasts
until can get more definitive about the likelihood at each of the
airports. There will be a lake breeze wind shift at KERI by 16z or
Outlook...Scattered non-VFR possible in mainly afternoon showers
and thunderstorms Sunday. Brief MVFR possible in early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday KMFD to KCAK and KYNG.
Tranquil conditions will prevail on lake erie as the region
remains on the western edge of high pressure centered off the mid
Atlantic coast. Weak southerly winds less than 10 knots can be
expect though the weekend except during the saturday afternoon
when a weak lake breeze may develop. A weak cold front will
approach and cross the lake sunday night and monday with veering
winds to westerly monday with generally 5-15 knots speeds. Weak
high pressure will build over the lake tuesday and east of the
lake wednesday. Winds will continue to veer to north and then
easterly on wednesday. No small craft advisories are expected.