Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 120853
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
353 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will move east across the region today and
today night. High pressure will build back across the region
Monday and remain in control into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light overrunning precip seen on radar across nrn indiana looks
like it might clip nwrn OH through the early morning so will
have a slight chance pop for light rain/snow. ZR also a
possibility but have seen temps rise a degree or two as precip
moves in across IN so for now will leave out. Otherwise weak
low pressure will move through the OH vly from late this
afternoon through tonight. Deep moisture will spread into the
area from the southwest with the low. Models in decent agreement
with the surface low position in swrn OH at 00Z this evening
although the GFS is more aggressive with the moisture vs the
NAM12 which brings the best moisture into the area after 00z.
Will bridge the two with chance pops this afternoon west. Models
also show a swath of overrunning precip spreading east mainly
over the lake but into nern OH and nwrn PA as well so will have
chance pops there as well. Overnight will take pops to likely
most places with highest pops south. High pressure builds in on
Monday as moisture pulls east. Will carry a small pop early
east. Also a bit concerned for lake effect sprinkles/rain
showers Monday afternoon with flow off the lake and -5C at
850mb. Will leave a 20% pop in for the afternoon snowbelt. Highs
today and Monday mostly lower/mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The flow remains progressive across the country. With a minor
shortwave working across the Great Lakes cannot rule out a
sprinkle/flurry Monday night across northeast OH/nw PA, but by
Tuesday high pressure will put an end to that minimal threat. Focus
shifts to the system to move across the northern lakes Wednesday
into Thursday. Moisture looks somewhat more limited than previous
runs and brought precip chances down just a bit. Just a glancing
shot of cooler air as the upper trough shifts to New England
thursday and surface high pressure noses southward across the Great
Lakes. This will keep us just below normal with a slight bump up on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A fairly significant system will emerge out of the central Plains
and head toward the Great Lakes for Friday into Saturday. For being
day 6 and 7 of the forecast, there is surprisingly limited spread in
the forecast solutions. This system will bring breezy weather with
rain showers ahead of it and a change over to snow in its wake. Will
keep the lower 50s highs for Friday, just not sure how Friday night
lows and Saturdays highs will turn out. Those will be highly
dependent upon frontal timing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mid/Upper level moisture will continue to increase tonight and
Sunday in advance of weak low pressure that will move through
the lower OH vly Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Expect VFR
conditions to persist overnight and through Sunday afternoon.
Sunday evening expect MVFR cigs/visibilities developing from the
southwest as rain moves in.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Sunday evening and Sunday night in rain
showers. Non-VFR possible again Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak area of low pressure will pass east across the Ohio Valley
today bringing the winds on the lake around to the north by Monday
morning. The gradient is light and wind speed will not be a problem.
High pressure moves overhead Tuesday. Winds ahead of and behind a
cold front Wednesday will likely be enough to generate the need for
a small craft advisory Wednesday night into Thursday for the east
two thirds of the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Oudeman



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.