Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 151711
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1211 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper will round the Lower Great Lakes today before
weakening as it pulls away Tuesday. High pressure from south-
central Canada will make its way to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
River Valleys for mid week. A warming trend will take place for
the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light to locally moderate snow from the clipper low will continue to
spread over the rest of the east thru late aftn. Moisture limited so
a general 1 to 2 inch accumulation is most likely out of 8 hours or
so of light snow. For tonight, dry slot overspreads the area ending
precipitation for most and tapering it across the far east and
southeast. This and the southwest flow will inhibit lake effect
through Tuesday. Weakening low is slow to exit and toward the end of
Tuesday afternoon wrap around moisture/trough will be nearing
northwest OH.

As far as temperatures go, enough warm advection will bring
temperatures up into the lower/mid 20s today. Went in the
middle of guidance for tonight`s temperatures. We seem to keep
come lower cloud cover through Monday night. Winds will stay up
some and this will bring the western areas close to wind chill
criteria for just a couple of hours. Have held off on an
advisory with such marginal apparent temps. A colder temp
forecast tonight may change that. Teens for highs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A trough will swing across Lake Erie on Tuesday night with
increasing low level moisture. Would expect some snow showers to
accompany the trough but Lake Erie is mostly iced over except for
the far eastern end so moisture flux will be greatly limited. The
forecast will have high chance to likely pops across far NE OH and
NW PA but with little accumulation expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon much drier air overspreads the
lake and snow showers should diminish. Cold temperatures expected
again Tuesday night, ranging from 0-10 with the coolest for inland
locations. Wind chills will range from 0 to -10.

A gradual warming trend will get underway for the second half of the
week with warmer air advecting in from the west and some sun on both
Thursday and Friday. The GFS is a southern outlier with a compact
upper low sliding through the northwest flow on Thursday night while
the other models are both weaker and farther north with this
feature. Will lean towards the better consensus for now with a dry
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A pattern change is on the way for next weekend with another big
warm up. A ridge builds across the eastern U.S. ahead of a deep
trough approaching from the west. Clouds will expand overhead on
Saturday with deep southwest flow and strong warm advection. Highs
are forecast to reach the 40s on Saturday and be near 50 by Sunday,
melting the snowpack once again. Sufficient isentropic ascent for
light drizzle or rain to develop Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night with better chances of rain along and ahead of the cold front
which is currently forecast to arrive Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
The widespread snow with the associated low MVFR/IFR conditions will
end from west to east tonight. However, Cigs probably won`t improve
above MVFR levels as low level moisture hangs around thru Tue.

SE to south winds 5 to 15 knots will gradually veer around to the SW
to west tonight thru Tue morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely Tue afternoon through Wed with a gradual
shift into mainly just the snowbelt on Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds will gradually veer to the southeast today and
southwest tonight as a clipper system moves across the southern
lakes region into Tuesday. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25
knots behind the cold front overnight. Winds will remain out of the
southwest for much of the week as another trough passes north of the
Great Lakes with high pressure building into the Ohio Valley. The
ice field is expected to continue to expand on the lake as another
shot of arctic air arrives behind the cold front. Much above normal
temperatures will return to the region next weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman/Adams
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...KEC



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