Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211710
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
110 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across Lake Erie this morning as
low pressure moves across the northern Great Lakes. The low
will continue to move northeast across Ontario and the
associated cold front will slide across the region from late
this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will cross the Ohio
Valley Monday and move to the east coast on Tuesday. The next
storm system will slowly move from the Mississippi Valley across
the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Still trying to time the weather this afternoon. The stratiform
rain will become more convective this afternoon and some of the
showers and thunderstorms will develop locally heavy rain from
the Youngstown area across NW PA. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase across NW OH as the front slowly ambles east. Updated
the hourly temperature forecast. Temperatures will be suppressed
while the rain is occurring but not much confidence in getting
the specific hourly temps correct as the afternoon goes on and
the convection increases. Highs generally in the lower/mid 70s
with some upper 70s between I-71 and I-75 where there will be a
decent break in the showers early this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will cross the region through the overnight hours
and should nudge the remaining showers and thunderstorms east
into NY and central PA by 12Z Monday. There could be a few
lingering showers across NE Ohio and NW PA Monday morning but
all locations should be dry for the afternoon. High pressure
will ridge across the area from the Ohio River Valley Monday
afternoon. It will quickly move eastward on Tuesday reaching
Eastern NY state. This will allow the next storm system to move
into the western Great Lakes. Models are trending a bit slower
with the eastward progression of this storm system as we wait
for an area of low pressure to clear the east coast of the US.
This may be enough to keep the region dry into Tuesday night.
The best chances for showers will be Wednesday into Wednesday
night as the upper low drifts eastward through the Great Lakes.

Slight cool down for Monday with mid 60s to near 70 expected.
Warmer Tuesday ahead of the next area of low pressure with highs
back into the 70s. Cooler again on Wednesday as thicker cloud
cover and showers spread across the region. Highs mid 60s
across the west to near 70 east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The slow moving low/upper low will still be over or near the area
Thu producing below normal temps and sct shra. The threat for shra
will lessen for Fri as weak high pressure works across the cwa. The
models show the next s/w moving ene into the lakes by late Sat with
a band of warm advection moisture and spotty qpf spreading into the
area so will increase pops. Temps should recover back to about
normal by Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Rain showers over the Eastern half of the forecast area
associated with warm front...will move east of the area next
couple of hours. Narrow line of convection Ern IN associated
with cold front will move across the forecast area this evening.
Behind the front will be brief period of VFR in the dry slot
then MVFR conditions will develop overnight in the wrap around
moisture.

South winds of 10 to 20 knots will veer to southwest to west
late today behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible again Tuesday night thru Thursday in
showers and TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds of mainly 10 to 20 knots from the SE will be veering around to
the south then west today into tonight as a warm front then cold
front cross the lake. There could be a period of near SCA conditions
Monday for the east half of the lake but then winds diminish some
into Monday night. A slow moving low will move near the lake late
Tue into Thu producing changeable winds that generally should be
under 15 knots that should set up from the west to nw late Thu.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Adams



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