Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 250226
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
926 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the Central Lakes tonight dragging a
strong cold front across the forecast area, ushering in more
seasonal conditions. A trough will swing across the forecast
area Saturday afternoon. High pressure will build over the area
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Update...SPC has indicated the continued limited potential for
severe in far western portion of the area which is still ahead
of the main cold front so will leave watch up a bit longer
there. Otherwise no major changes for the update.

Original...Potential for severe thunderstorms continues for
this evening. SPC continue with enhanced threat across the West
half of the CWA and SLT risk over the East half. Greatest threat
continues to be from damaging winds...though an isolated
tornado near the low is not out of the question.

Currently low pressure just into SW Michigan with the trailing cold
front now south of St Louis...and the warm front just north of the
forecast area.  Capes have risen to 1000 J/kg with 40 knots of
shear.  Some TSRA starting to fire on the remnants of this mornings
convection.  Convection will become more widespread in the next hour
or two.  A second line is trying to fire up in the better surface
convergence closer to the front.  However...first line may cut off
moisture supply to the potential second line.   More likely is that
the first line will gradually weaken and the second line strengthen
and become the main focus of convection.

The models in good agreement tracking the low across the Thumb of
Michigan this evening...reaching NE Lake Huron by daybreak.   The
trailing cold front should reach the CLE area toward midnight local
and just be exiting the area by daybreak Saturday.   Expect
convection to move into NW OH this evening and gradually track into
NE OH after midnight.   Best chance of severe tsra will be Cleveland
west before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will just be exiting the area by daybreak tomorrow.
Do expect some lingering showers in the east which will quickly move
east of the forecast area.   High temps for the day will be in the
morning with falling temps through the afternoon.   Secondary trough
will swing across the area tomorrow afternoon.  Could see a little
rain or snow in the East but should not be significant.   Expect
lake effect snow to develop in the snowbelt east of CLE to develop
tomorrow night as the 850mb temps plunge to -14c.   Do not expect
much in the way of accumulations as will be short lived.   High
pressure quickly builds in on Sunday...with the surface ridge
centered over ERI by 18z Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level troughiness will cover much of the lower 48 states
by Thursday morning.  This upper level trough will cause low
pressure to move northeast into the central Great Lakes by Wednesday
and rapidly deepen as it reaches the east coast.  This low will
bring another surge of mild air to the region Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs climbing into the 50s at this time.  Temperatures will
cool back down into the 40s by Thursday and 30s for Friday as cold
air advection takes place in the wake of the low pressure. The low
will bring another threat for rain Tuesday into Wednesday
transitioning into snow by Wednesday night.  The fairly strong cold
air advection arriving Thursday should keep precipitation all snow
going into the weekend. The potential for accumulating lake effect
snow returns as well for the latter half of the week.  Contrary to
what our weather is like today, it is a harsh reality that we will
return back to wintry weather again by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Broken line of showers and thunderstorms from west of KCVG
northeast through KFDY and onto western Lake Erie. This activity
is expected to impact terminals as it pushes northeast tonight.
More scattered showers/thunderstorms possible behind this line,
ahead of a strong cold front. Shower/thunder chances will end
from west to east from 10Z through 14Z with post frontal MVFR
possible. Winds will remain gusty out of the west behind the
front. Some scattered -SHSN possible, especially near the lake,
towards the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR across mainly the snowbelt by late Saturday
into Sunday. Areas on non-vfr Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue out of the southwest ahead of the cold front and
then shift to a west southwest direction after the cold frontal
passage.  A small craft advisory may be needed toward morning
tomorrow and continue through Sunday morning. Winds gradually
diminish with time Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Greenawalt/Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy


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