Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE 12
UTC AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND
SOUTHEAST PA. PLENTY OF CUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY EAST. MUCH
OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER NW OHIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE LOW END
VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AFTER 00Z.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AVOID ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS AND WILL
BE FROM A DOWNSLOPING DIRECTION AT MANY TAFS SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN





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