Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221741
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY...BUT STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE HAVE CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY WITH AN AREA OF SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREATER
CLEVELAND AREA. 16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A NICE AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AT CLEVELAND. THIS AREA OF
SNOW WILL DRIFT INLAND ACROSS NE OHIO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW...BUT LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE
SNOWBELT AND FLURRIES ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
STILL SUPPORT CHANCE OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST WHERE THERE IS SOME FOG. FOR NOW WILL JUST ADD PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WEST FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ENDING ALL PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FINALLY MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MOVING IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE A COASTAL LOW
UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER FROM MODEL TO MODEL...ALL 3 MODELS KEEP
TRACK WELL EAST OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO CONTINUE HOWEVER TO
MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. TIMING IS STILL A
LITTLE OFF WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH A W-NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN
THE SNOWBELT.

THERE IS GOING TO BE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO.   THE GFS TRACKS THE
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH A FAIRLY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.  GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA LOWEST WEST HIGHEST EAST
ENDING IN A SLIVER OF LIKELY FAR EAST. HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
EARLY VS LATE ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT TIMING COULD SHIFT SO NO
EMPHASIS ON MORNING VS AFTERNOON YET. MODELS SHOW CANADIAN/MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
-14C BY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.  NOT A LOT OF OPEN
WATER TO WORK WITH AND -14C ITSELF IS MARGINAL THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
LAKE EFFECT BUT WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO THE NIGHT EAST AS
THERE SHOULD BE SOME MOISTURE FLUX. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY POSSIBLY REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW MOVING OF THE KCLE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT VSBYS AT KCLE TO IMPROVE SHORTLY.
CIGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH REMAINING IFR AREAS
JUMPING TO MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIGS ARE ALREADY LIFTING
TO VFR IN THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY TO TAKE WELL INTO THE EVENING
TO HAPPEN IN THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE CIGS IN THE WEST COULD
BECOME SCT OVERNIGHT BUT VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE EAST. LIGHT
FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY WEST
TO SW. DO NOT EXPECT THE N FLOW AT KCLE TO LAST.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON SAT AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BUILDING
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS.  THE NORTH FLOW WILL DECREASE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK





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