Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 221917
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
317 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017
High pressure from the central plains to the western Great Lakes
will build into the region tonight through Sunday. A weak cold
front will approach from the north on Monday but should head
back north as a warm front Monday night or early Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Models show high pressure and dry (850-700mb) air build into
the area overnight. Models also show decreasing upper level
moisture but that will take into the night according to the GFS.
The NAM however is the drier of the two. Northwest locations
should clear first early this evening. That said, the next
concern for tonight is overnight lows and the potential for
frost. Guidance lows are mostly on the high side of the mid 30s
(36-38). However there are a few locations where the MAV
guidance takes lows to 35 and HZY is 33/34. For now will
continue the mention of "patchy" frost away from the lake and
let evening crew watch the progression of the clouds and evening
temps for possible frost advisory.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure noses into the area for Sunday. Models show dry
air across the area Sunday that will last into Monday morning as
the high and the dry air get squeezed between an approaching
cold front from the north and moisture moving toward the area
from the southeast from low pressure near the SC coast. Think we
will get through Monday afternoon partly cloudy across the east
half of the area but as moisture continue to increase Monday
evening and overnight believe skies will turn mostly cloudy.
Tuesday the NAM GFS and ECMWF show moisture/clouds across much
of the area but most east half. Will begin the Tuesday forecast
mostly cloudy east and decrease clouds through the day as this
moisture hopefully thins. Will continue the trend into Tuesday
night as moisture associated with the east coast low pulls east
and moisture associated with an approaching cold front should
not quite be here. Highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday reaching
the lower 70s on Tuesday except for nwrn PA.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Active weather pattern is expected through the latter half of the
week. Initially, upper level ridging takes place early in the
period and that is followed by broad troughiness as trough
becomes negatively tilted over the local area. This will trigger
deepening of a surface low over the central Rockies that will
round the base of the trough into the central Great Lakes by
Wednesday. The low will track northeast and bring a round of
showers and thunderstorms to the area followed by a cold front
Wednesday night. Fairly good warm air advection will take place
Wednesday in advance of the low. High pressure builds southeast
out of central Canada with a glancing blow. Another southern
stream storm system will track northeast toward the forecast
area Friday forcing a warm front north. This will bring another
round of warm air advection into the forecast area late Friday
into Saturday. Question remains is how much rain we get on
Friday due to timing differences in the models. Up and down
temperatures through the extended periods but remaining on the
mild to warm side.
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
A bit of an upper level disturbance laying across the area this
afternoon with some moisture associated with it is spawning
some lower clouds at MVFR levels. Mid and high clouds also
across the area as well. High pressure ridge will build east
across the area tonight into Sunday. This should force the lower
clouds east and out of the area. Winds should diminish later
this afternoon and become very light northerly through tomorrow.
OUTLOOK...Possibly non-VFR over the east on Tuesday and entire
Lake is expected to be quiet through the next 36 hours or so but a
northeast flow will develop on Monday on the lake. Winds 10 to 15
knots could bring borderline small craft advisory conditions on the
west half of the lake. Will have to monitor for this potential.
Winds do diminish quickly by Monday night to light and variable. A
southeast flow develops during the night Tuesday night at 10 to 20
knots. The offshore warm air advection flow will prevent small
craft advisories at this time. Winds then gradually shift around to
a westerly direction by Wednesday night and a short period small
craft advisory may be needed at this time into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, light northwest and then northerly flow will develop for