Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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248
FXUS61 KCLE 181316
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front over Indiana will move east over the local area
and become stationary by this evening. The front will push to
the south Tuesday as high pressure begins to build back over the
region from the north. The high will then dominate the weather
the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Front slowly moving toward the region. Some isolated scattered
showers/thunderstorms through the day. Previous forecast is on
track so only minor changes made.

Previous discussion...
Lot`s of questions today about when and where any precip will
develop today. Regional radar currently shows a few showers over
lower MI and far western OH. This activity has been dissipating
and making little eastward progress overnight. The front
responsible for this activity remains over IN and is expected to
reach the area later today. The lower atmosphere will continue
to moisten in advance of the front. Some showers are expected to
develop with coverage of no more than 20 or 30 percent. Best
chances will be over the west end of the area. The models
continue to show some precip forming at the opposite end of the
area as well. This is most likely in response to a lake boundary
expected to develop later today. Will need small chances for
this activity as well. The central portion of the area should
remain dry today. Clouds will overspread the area this morning
and this should keep temps a tad cooler than they were on
Sunday. With the loss of daytime heating any remaining showers
should dissipate after 00z leaving the evening mainly dry. More
showers are expected to develop late tonight into Tuesday as
high pressure begins to push the stalled front off to the south.
This time the entire area will see small precip chances.
Again...no more than 20 to 30 percent coverage is expected with
best chances again at the southwest end of the area. As far as
thunder goes...it appears best chances will be this afternoon in
the west. Lack of strong forcing and upper support should keep
the thunder from being more than isolated.

Persistence appears the way to go for temps. See no reason why
we won`t again make 80 degrees again most areas on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Strong upper level ridge builds over the area as Jose meanders
up East coast. Instability during the afternoon hours but area
will be well capped with 700 mb temps hovering around 10c.
Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast. Upper level ridge
holds fast. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will
continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A few showers remain near TOL and will go with a tempo for a few
hours that area then just a vicinity mention in the west the
remainder of the day. Showers are also possible in the east
this afternoon but confidence in timing and coverage is too low
for a mention in the TAFs. The activity in the east could form
along a lake breeze boundary and thus should be inland from ERI.
Expect high and mid level clouds to overspread the region
during the period. A weak boundary will eventually make it`s
way across the area later today with a change to north or
northeast flow from light southerly. That may cause some strato
cumulus to form downwind of the lake late today or this evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog and/or stratus Tuesday and
Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak southerly flow will turn to the Northeast later today as a weak
cold front moves across the lake.   Winds will remain below small
craft advisory conditions through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...DJB



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