Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 232109
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
409 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WILL UNDERGO
RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
RIDGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NEAR THE GULF COAST
MOVES TO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THE BEST CHANCES
AND HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. HAVE GONE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE. IT WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ACROSS NW OHIO IN THE
VICINITY OF TOLEDO. AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AND WILL LIKELY CHILL THIS AREA TO AROUND
40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS RAPID DEEPENING ON WEDNESDAY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE. IMPRESSIVE JET ENERGY
WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THERE ARE A COUPLE WAYS THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. ONE
OF THEM BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINE OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRING THE 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
SURFACE. THE OTHER SCENARIO...AND THE MOST LIKELY...WILL BE THE
STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT COMBINING TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF NE OHIO
INTO NW PA.

IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS EVENT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. IN FACT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS AT A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS WITH A
BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH
THE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF LAKE
INVOLVEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE AIR FLOWING
ACROSS THE LAKE IS NOT ALL THAT COLD. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH.

RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL HELP PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGHS WILL RECOVER ON FRIDAY
BACK INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY
REACH THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CANADA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE IS
SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS IN BOTH TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL NEED ADJUSTED IN TIME.

DIFFERENCES INCREASE BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEYOND THAT TIME
WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS STRUGGLE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND WHERE THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL
RESIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNTIL FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW DURING THIS
TIME BUT WILL ONLY CARRY LOW 20-30 POPS MOST DAYS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WEST OF CHICAGO WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LOW CEILINGS AND
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT CLE/ERI
WILL LIKELY KEEP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE WHILE OTHER SITES ARE
MOSTLY IFR. CAK/YNG MAY SEE CEILINGS LIFT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 22Z AND FILL
IN TONIGHT AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECTING POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500
FEET FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT ERI BY 09Z. EASTERN AREA MAY SEE A BREAK
IN THE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE SLOWER
TRACK/TIMING OF THE NAM WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE REAL STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TAFS UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z
SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS WITH THIS PACKAGE.


.OUTLOOK...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE
02-10Z THURS. NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM
WILL UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS FROM WESTERN OHIO TO NORTH
OF LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
BETWEEN 21-00Z AND ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH TO
BEGIN AT 21Z. WILL REFINE TIMING FURTHER AS GALE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ON
THE WEST END OF THE LAKE WITH GALES TO 40 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE. GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KNOTS AT TIMES...BOTH WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

THE SYSTEM DOES PULL AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WAVES ARE SLOWER TO RECEDE.

THE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. MODELS SPREAD INCREASES BEYOND THAT TIME WITH RESPECT
TO TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ012-089.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-
     037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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