Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 160735
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front across the Central Great Lakes will move
across the forecast area tonight.  The front will push south of the
area Monday, as Canadian High pressure builds SE across the Great
Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Could see some patchy fog this morning with dew point lingering in
the upper 50s to the lower 60s.  However do not think it will be too
wide spread as winds have not decoupled and debris clouds spilling
over the area.

Slow moving cold front across Northern Michigan forecast to move
into NW OH late this afternoon.   Area remains under Marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms by SPC as capes approach 2,500 j/kg in the
West late this afternoon.  In addition a weak upper level short wave
forecast to move across the Lower Lakes this evening.

However kept pops in chance category for a number of reasons.  First
area is well capped with 700 mb temps of 9c.  Plus minimal shear and
limited moisture.   That said expect scattered TSRA to develop ahead
of the front in NW OH late this afternoon than spread east during
the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Slow moving front still across the SERN portion of the forecast area
Monday morning, gradually pushing SE of the area by the afternoon.
As a result will see some lingering showers in the East Monday
morning.

An upper trough over the eastern CONUS will give way to an upper
ridge for Tuesday and Wednesday. This ridge will support high
pressure at the surface that will linger over the area through much
of the short term forecast period. This will keep the area dry and
temperatures actually look a bit below average behind the front that
clears the area on Monday. By mid-to-late Wednesday, the upper ridge
begins to weaken and flow becomes much more zonal, allowing for a
wave of energy to move through the region. This energy will support
a weak wave of low pressure at the surface and could impact the far
northwest reaches of the CWA in terms of rain late Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft will be transitioning to northwest flow with a
piece of energy that moves through the region on Thursday. This
energy will support a weak wave of low pressure at the surface. The
rain associated with this surface low may try to enter the far
northwest parts of the CWA on Wednesday night, as noted in the short
term discussion. However, it looks like the bulk of the rain will
occur on Thursday as the low is overhead. Therefore, mid-to-high
chance pops seems appropriate for Thursday. This low will linger
into Friday, and so will the rain. However, this low will slide east
by Friday night as a weak high pressure develops over the lake
behind the low. While this high would likely mean a dry Friday
night, the northwest flow overhead makes me a bit uncertain to go
with a completely dry forecast, so will have slight chance pops at
worst. Temperatures will recover back to seasonal.

The weekend into Monday certainly looks both wet and active,
although the extended guidance differs greatly on the final
solution. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all depict a shortwave trough
going rippling through the northwest flow aloft supporting a
deepening low pressure at the surface. The GFS is the fastest with
this trough and surface low, moving them through by Saturday night.
The ECMWF is the slowest with the trough and surface low not coming
through until Sunday Night into Monday. Given the spread in the
guidance, will significantly cut back from the likely/categorical
pops on Sunday and go with chance pops through the entirety of the
weekend into Monday with the highest pops on Sunday as the center of
the timing spread of the extended guidance. Temperatures look
seasonal through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
with dew points in the lower 60s and dew point depressions of
2-5 degrees do expect some br to develop tonight.

Scattered TSRA to develop ahead of approaching cold front this
afternoon and evening. Models trends a little slower with
convection than ydy. TSRA not expected into NW until late
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in any showers and thunderstorms that
linger Sunday night and early Monday. However the debris clouds
from storms moving across Wisconsin will help keep br from
getting out of hand. VFR conditions should return by mid
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds out the south will continue today until a cold front
moves in, shifting the winds to the southwest ahead of it and then
flipping around to the northwest tonight into Monday. High pressure
will then move back in on Tuesday into Wednesday allowing for light
and variable winds in the middle of the week. Choppy conditions can
be expected today with the cold frontal passage and continuing with
the change to northwest winds on tonight/Monday morning. Otherwise,
conditions should be fairly nice through the middle of the week
until the next system approaches on Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Sefcovic



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