Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 012027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99


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