Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1200 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving out of northeast
Colorado during the overnight hours should dissipate during the
early morning. Instability will redevelop across the region by
this afternoon due to strong surface heating. Low level upslope
winds and a weak shortwave trough coming out of the central
Rockies will provide synoptic scale forcing. Similar to yesterday,
effective bulk shear on the order of 40-50kts will be more than
adequate to support rotating updrafts/supercell structures with
stronger storms. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the main threats, but an isolated tornado or two will be
possible. Timing is a little later than yesterday, with initiation
expected in the Denver-Limon area 18-21z, then moving eastward
and reaching the Kansas border area late in the afternoon around
00z, before moving into the remainder of the Tri-State area early
this evening. Storms will linger into the overnight, but severe
threat should end by 06z.

A fairly decent shortwave trough moves through on Saturday, but
low levels will be drying out with brisk north winds. As a result,
instability will be very limited. Nonetheless, might see a
marginal threat for a severe storm in southern parts of the area
where instability peaks at around 500 j/kg mid afternoon with good
deep layer shear, but window will be short as even that
instability is swept south after 00z.

Sunday will see dry northwest flow. Do not see any embedded
shortwaves at this time. Very limited instability of a few
hundred j/kg is forecast in northeastern areas with surface
heating, but with low dew points and brisk northwest surface winds
will keep it dry.

Temperatures will be near normal today, slightly below normal on
Saturday and near normal on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

The second half of the extended period will be the time to see rain
showers and thunderstorms over the CWA. Monday and Tuesday could see
brief periods of precipitation along and west of the Colorado,
Kansas border in the afternoon hours. A severe threat is not
expected either of those days.

Wednesday and Thursday are showing a stronger signal for
precipitation over the region. Current guidance has the CWA
partially under a ridge that is to the west, as well as keeping
upper level northwest flow over a good portion of the region. That
will create the potential for storms is a low pressure system moving
over the southwestern CONUS both days under the ridge. This will
help with bringing in some moisture to the region. There are times
where CAPEs are favorable for storm development but 0-6 km shear is
not great. Also, the GFS and EC are a little off on timing. The EC
is about 6 to 12 hours ahead on Wednesday. For Thursday, they both
show precipitation over the region but the GFS has stronger
instability then the EC. Right now, storm chances are in the
forecast but seeing embedded strong storms both days is more likely
then severe storms (based on current guidance).

Temperatures during the period will primarily be in the 70s with
some areas seeing the low 80s through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Am expecting a cluster of
storms to move across the forecast area north of Highway 24. Light
to moderate rainfall is expected with these storms. KGLD will be
in a better position for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening. Main hazards will be large hail up to
baseball size and damaging wind gusts. Overnight KMCK may have
another round of storms around 9z move through from the northwest.
This storms will be capable of producing large hail up to baseball
size as well. Meanwhile MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings will move in
behind a cold front overnight, lasting through the rest of the




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