Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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369
FXUS63 KGLD 150936
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

A winter storm is still on track to impact the region beginning this
evening with freezing rain expected to begin impacting the southern
and southeastern reaches of the CWA around sunset. There has been
a trend toward heavier sleet accumulations and less in the way of
freezing rain and ice, mainly in the northwest portions of the
CWA.

Dry air has inhibited precipitation from falling through much of the
morning and into the afternoon with only light rain reported in
Wichita and Greeley counties in northwest Kansas. Shower activity
will pick up later this afternoon as the low moves east and then
northeast into the region. The current location of the system
confirms the ECMWF as the closest global model at this time and thus
I slightly biased my timing upon this solution.

Impacts of the storm will be moderate to severe depending upon the
precipitation type. Precipitation will vary from moderate to
heavy ice accumulations in the eastern and southeastern CWA to
moderate sleet and relatively heavy snowfall in the west and
northwest. If a transition to sleet occurs sooner, we will see
lighter ice accumulations; however, current guidance is suggesting
ice amounts up to 7/10 of an inch in our eastern and southeastern
counties. If the larger ice accumulations manifest, we are looking
at potential widespread power outages and treacherous travel
conditions on area roads and highways on Sunday/Monday. Further
west, a freezing rain/sleet mix will make for hazardous travel and
isolated power outages as we head into Sunday with heavy snow
expected to inhibit travel on Monday. The sleet/freezing rain mix
will transition to sleet/snow and then to heavy snow Sunday night
and is expected to persist into Monday morning. Areas in the
eastern portions of the CWA will see this transition occur closer
to Monday morning, leading to lower snowfall amounts in this area.
Generally, we will see 4 to 6 inches of snow in the western half
of the CWA along a southwest to northeast band that will set up on
the western side of the low. Isolated amounts of up to 8 inches
are possible in areas where an earlier transition is observed.
Areas in the eastern portions of the CWA can expect amounts of 1
to 3 inches. Snowfall will end from west to east Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

Forecast concerns will be affects of upcoming storm on temperatures
at the beginning this period, and the next chance of precipitation
toward the end of the period. Satellite showing a progressive but a
little more amplified flow over most of the Pacific with an even
more amplified and split flow over the western portion of the North
America, especially over the western portion of the country.

Again a little uncertainty on the high temperature forecast at the
beginning of the period due to not knowing for sure how much of the
area will be covered by snow/ice and how much snow/ice there will be.
Do not feel as confident as  yesterday about lowering temperatures.
So made little to no changes in the temperature forecast through the
period.

As yesterday,there continues to be a lot difference among the
deterministic output and the ensembles. Models were also different
from yesterday. From Wednesday through Thursday night the models
develop a cutoff over the central/south central plains and then move
it east. The Ecmwf is furthest north, the Gfs the furthest south
with the Canadian in the middle.

From Friday into Saturday night, the models develop a negatively
tilted upper trough over the western half of the country. A lot
detail differences start with shortwave trough rotating through the
area in southwest flow aloft. The strongest of these through in the
Friday to Friday night frame.

Right now the forecast blender gave me spotty precipitation chances
Friday and Friday night with the better/more widespread
precipitation showing up on Saturday and beyond. Based on the above
will leave the precipitation forecast alone, and hope for better
resolution of the details as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1024 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

Cold air at the surface with a persistent warmer and moist layer
above the boundary layer will cause freezing precipitation to
spread across the central high plains region ahead of a storm
system that will be lifting out across the panhandle region and
into eastern Kansas between Sunday night and mid-day Monday
morning.

GLD will start out MVFR with conditions continuing to deteriorate
through the TAF period. Light freezing rain is expected to develop
between 09-14z with ice pellets and IFR conditions due to lower
ceilings after 16Z. Freezing rain is expected again after 01Z
along with a transition to LIFR due to low ceilings.

MCK will be MVFR through 20Z with freezing rain developing
between 12-18Z. By 20Z freezing rain will change over to ice
pellets with a transition to IFR conditions by 01Z. After
05Z...expect LIFR conditions due to low ceilings with a transition
back to freezing rain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ Monday for
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

     Ice Storm Warning until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for KSZ004-
     015-016-028-029-041-042.

CO...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST Monday for COZ091-092.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST Monday for COZ090.

NE...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ Monday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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