Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150958
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
258 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

The persistence that has prevailed over the forecast area the
past couple of days has changed as a cold front pushed through the
northern plains earlier this evening. As a result, today`s highs
will be cooler and drier than yesterday leaving us in the 50s
across our CWA.

The Pacific trough will continue to deepen on Thursday into
Friday, causing the winds over our area to shift west-
southwesterly. This will advect drier and warmer conditions which
may cause some fire weather criteria to be met on Friday. It is
possible our daily max temperature records will be broken for our
eastern counties on Thursday and southern counties on Friday.

Compared to previous model output runs, the FROPA has trended a
slower projection than before, with the system moving over our
area Friday night. Expecting some rain showers at first followed
by mixed wintry precipitation as temperatures drop below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

Northwest flow aloft will prevail on Saturday and Sunday in the wake
of Friday`s cold front. High pressure will remain to our southwest
with a deep trough situated to the east. H5 ridging will gradually
flatten as we head into Monday with upper flow becoming more
westerly. H7 shortwaves will develop in the lee of the central
Rockies; however, dry weather will prevail in an environment of
dominant subsidence going into Tuesday.

The variable strength of a H5 ridge, situated off of the southern
California coast, will influence the pattern going into Wednesday.
Currently, guidance is pushing another cold front through the CWA
early Wednesday morning with a slight chance of precipitation during
this period. There will be very little moisture to work with thus
widespread precipitation is not anticipated. Northwest flow aloft
will follow the front, keeping us in a dry and active pattern going
forward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 900 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Gusty northwest
winds expected through about 10z before decreasing to 10kts
through 18z then variable around 19z. Winds become southerly
around 6kts by 22z then very slowly increase through the rest of
the taf period possibly flirting with 12kts at the very end.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Gusty northwest
winds expected through 09z before decreasing toward 10kts through
18z then variable through 01z. After 02z a light southeast wind
around 5kts expected.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99



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