Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191615

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
915 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 221 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are
currently ranging mainly 30F to 40F under a veil of high cloud
cover...and light WSW winds.

For today and on thru Saturday...upper level ridging over the
central portion of the country is beginning to flatten out ahead of
a low pressure system set to move into the west coast today...and
into the west-central Rockies by Saturday. Thru Saturday...above
normal warmth...with dry wx...will continue for the area during this
time. Looking for daytime highs today to reach a range from the mid
60s to near 70F. These numbers will be close to records in many
spots. Please refer to the Climate Section below for further
information. Going into Saturday...highs will still be above normal
in the 50s to lower 60s...warmest south.

It will be the Saturday night thru Sunday night period that will
encompass the region`s main wx concerns in the short term. As with
the past several model runs...the low coming into the Rockies will
exit into the Plains thru west-central Kansas late Saturday night
into Sunday...tracking ENE thru Sunday night as the system exits the

Some timing differences still on the latest GFS versus the NAM and
ECMWF for the track of this system which will go just south of the
CWA thru the period. As the system shifts from ENE flow to a
northerly fetch thru the day Sunday...expecting most of the precip
with this system to occur as snow. Some areas could see brief
periods of light freezing rain during the day...especially ESE
locales. Snowfall expected to be primary p-type with amounts now
ranging from 1 to 6 inches...with highest totals mainly north of
Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27. While increased confidence on
snowfall potential...the juxtaposition of the low track could have
current snow totals change right up to low arrival into the area.
Please stay tuned.

As a result will hold off on any issuance of winter products for the

On top of the expected precip...increasing northerly winds for the
afternoon/evening hrs Sunday are expected and could top 30+ mph
causing blowing snow to affect the area.

For temps Saturday night onward...overnight lows will range from the
mid teens thru the mid 20s...while highs Sunday will only reach the
lower to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2018

A progressive zonal flow will follow the departing storm system
next week. Shortwave ridging on Monday will result in dry conditions
and warmer temperatures, although warming will be tempered by
lingering snow cover. Shortwave trough quickly follows on Tuesday
but moisture appears to be lacking for precipitation chances.
Somewhat stronger shortwave ridge follows for Wednesday and
Thursday, so continued dry with temperatures near normal outside
of any lingering snow covered areas.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 915 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. Both
terminals will see varying degrees of cirrus through the period.

KGLD will have west to west-northwest winds near 12kts through 20z
before veering to the northwest under 10kts through 23z. From
00z-15z winds become light from the southwest then variable after
16z ahead of an approaching cold front.

KMCK will have a light west wind through 22z then variable under
6kts from the rest of the period. Winds in this time frame will
slowly and gradually become northeast and east toward the end of
the period as a cold front moves through.




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