Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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535
FXUS63 KGLD 022100
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 143 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

The primary forecast concern in the short term period is the
possibility of very light snow working its way up into portions of
northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska tonight through mid day on
Saturday.

The area of surface high pressure across the Central High Plains
region today slides east across the plains states overnight
tonight with a lee trough deepening along the Front Range tonight
and into the day on Saturday. Light and variable winds will
transition into a light southerly return flow around the surface
high. This return flow will bring moisture from the southern
plains back up and over the cold air in place across the region.
Additionally, a weak mid-level short wave trough will transition
the region between 09Z tonight and 00Z tomorrow afternoon. This
combination of features will provide just enough lift to promote
the formation light snow that will extend northward into the
southern reaches of the forecast area tonight. That area will
transition to the eastern sections of the forecast area on
Saturday as the mid level short wave exits and the larger upper
trough begins to push into the region, helping to sweep the low
level moisture to the east as the deepening surface trough also
progresses eastward, surface flow turns westerly, and the low
level airmass begins to dry out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

Going into the extended period...mid level shortwave moving across
the Central/Northern plains will continue trek eastward going into
the evening hours Saturday. This is going to allow the CWA to see
surface ridging to build across the central portion of the
country...along w/ mid level zonal flow...for the remainder of the
weekend into next Monday morning.

For Monday night on thru Thursday...the CWA will be on track to see
cold arctic air work into the region due to the passage of a couple
of shortwaves and an arctic front. With current model runs...first
shortwave Monday night into Tuesday is a quick mover...and will
result in light snowfall. Models do differ on timing/strength of
second system Tuesday night into Wednesday with latest ECMWF
stronger than the GFS counterpart. Easterly upslope flow does play a
stronger part in snow accum for the ECMWF...w/ lesser effects in the
GFS...and potential snow accum will vary greatly for the two as a
result. Precip will end going into the evening on Wednesday with
high pressure returning for the remainder of the forecast.

With the latest model guidance numbers...the CWA will be looking at
a 3-4" snow accum potential for the aforementioned 48-hr period. In
addition to the snowfall...wind gusts reaching the 15-25 mph range
will cause blowing snow so have added to going forecast.

For temps...the arrival of the arctic front into the region will
bring first good taste of winter conditions into the tri State
region. Locales will see daytime highs in the 40s for Sun-Mon give
way to highs only in the 20s for Tues-Wed. The return of high
pressure for end of the upcoming week will allow for upward trend to
ensue with highs returning to the 30-40F range...especially for
Friday. Overnight lows will however have a more dramatic shift
versus the daytime component. Teens to low 20s for overnight lows
expected on either side of the Tues-Wed night timeframe...but
single numbers to near 10F for Tues-Wed nights. On top of the
expected cold temps...winds gusting near the 15-20 mph range could
give the CWA wind chill readings near 0F for Tuesday night...and
0F to -15F Wednesday night. Thursday night could also see some
near 0F readings until WSW flow kicks in towards Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1036 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR and remain that way
through about 10Z. After that time it appears low level moisture
being advected in the return flow from the southern high plains
into the central high plains region will produce lower cloud
heights and possible lowering of visibilities with fog.

At 10Z GLD will transition to MVFR and then IFR after 12Z mainly
due to increasing cloud cover and lowering ceilings. There will
also likely be fog after 12Z that continues to near the end of the
TAF period. Beyond 18Z, expect ceilings and visibilities to
improve.

At MCK by 12Z, increasing cloud cover and lowering ceilings should
produce MVFR conditions and occasionally IFR conditions with
visibilities also possibly going to 3 miles or below. Conditions
will be slower to improve at MCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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