Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011931
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS
THE SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR TONIGHT AND THEN
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWER SHEAR VALUES SUNDAY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH.  RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
WILL CAUSE ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS



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