Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1043 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 500 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

With precipitation having ended across the forecast area and no
further precipitation expected overnight, have cancelled the
winter weather highlights across the forecast area. With
temperatures in the lower to mid 30s across the forecast area
today, much melting has occurred, which has helped most major
roadways to become clear with only areas of either wet or icy
conditions remaining. Expect some refreezing overnight as
temperatures drop into the lower 20s and teens, but do not expect
any additional precipitation from this point on as the storm
system continues to move away from the central high plains region
and towards the upper midwest.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

H5 low continues to move off to the northeast this afternoon. Snow
transition was a bit slower than expected thus ice amounts were
higher and snowfall totals lower. Much of the CWA is transitioned to
snow where precipitation is falling with occasional reports of mixed
sleet and freezing rain. A persistent but weak band of snow
stretches from Hitchcock county in Nebraska to central Kit Carson
county in Colorado. This band is very slowly moving to the east and
areas within this band of light snow could pick up an additional
inch of snow. HRRR mesoscale and SREF plumes indicate that most
areas will see precipitation chances quickly diminish as the
afternoon progresses, ending by around 00Z. Temperatures will hover
in the lower 30s for the most part with upper 20s in the
northwestern portions of the CWA. Skies will clear tonight from
northwest to southeast.

Mostly clear skies will prevail Tuesday with a rebound in
temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 30s to middle 40s across
the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 121 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

For the extended period...latest GFS/ECMWF models have been trending
the past several runs with zonal H5 flow across the northern half
of the country...with a cutoff low setting up over south central
portions of the country. This upper level system makes a slow push
northward towards the Central Plains by Friday...lifting across
the Central Plains Friday night...followed by another quick moving
system that pinwheels into the region off the Central Rockies for
the upcoming weekend.

With the cutoff system anchored over south central portions of the
country for the first half of the extended...surface high pressure
mainly east...with troughing over the front range. This will give
the area near to above normal highs Wednesday into Friday...before
trending colder as the approach of the two aforementioned systems
will bring increased cloud cover with the chance for precip.

Looking for daytime highs to reach the 40s with a trend lower into
the upcoming weekend. Depending on the speed of these two
systems...highs could be affected by several degrees due to the
strength of the CAA on the wrap-around/exiting side of each low.
Overnight lows will range in the 20s.

For qpf at present to keep pops in chance category
for now...but speed of each system thru the area combined with some
upslope effects on the easterly/southeasterly flow could give the
area enhanced precip especially at night in terms of -sw based on
expected temps. Warm enough during the day for -rw.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1027 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with mid to
high clouds diminishing overnight and only a few high clouds after
14Z. Light northwest winds will turn southwest after 20Z.




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