Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 232349
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
549 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Area of locally intense winds have developed across eastern
colorado with winds gusts up to 46 kts observed for a bit near
KITR. Think there will be some diurnal weakening...but these winds
will likely loft a few areas of blowing dust for the next few
hours and have amended forecast to account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Large upper low near SLC is organizing a surface low in north-
central Colorado which will ultimately move into NE/SD overnight.
Resultant tight pressure gradient will continue to generate gusty
south winds to 40 mph through the afternoon...diminishing
somewhat this evening to SSE 20-30. Later tonight a surge of
cooler air will arrive as winds shift to northwest.

Main concern/uncertainty in the short term is the initation and
evolution of convection later this afternoon and overnight. Wind
shear is strong but instability not all that great. Forecast cinh
values remain fairly impressive this evening east of the Colorado
border so storm coverage is somewhat uncertain. Models struggle
to produce much in the way of storms this evening, especially for
areas further south, but as main shortwave swings out into Kansas
overnight models end up generating a band of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Thinking main threat is strong wind
gusts, but if an elevated supercell develops isolated large hail
cannot be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Upper low and associated trough/cold front will traverse the Plains
Saturday night into Sunday. The cold front will be just east of the
CWA by Sunday morning with strong CAA in the wake of the front as
we head through the day on Sunday. Highs will climb into the upper
60s. We could see frost especially in northwestern portions of the
CWA as temperatures fall into the upper 30s Sunday night with lows
otherwise generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The upper low will continue moving eastward into the upper
Mississippi valley on Monday, weakening the CAA into the region and
allowing afternoon high temperatures to rebound into the 70s. Winds
will shift gradually southward Monday evening and overnight into
Tuesday. A cut off low, situated over southern Arizona, will be
pulled into the pattern as we head into Tuesday afternoon. The left
over trough and associated warm front will push across the northern
most portions of the CWA late Wednesday night and into Thursday.
Slgt chc PoPs return to the forecast for areas mainly north of
Interstate 70 for Thursday afternoon and evening as this trough
traverses the region. Temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees
each afternoon Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Aviation concerns will be brief window for thunderstorms btwn 05
and 09z at TAf sites...followed by abrupt shift in winds as cold
front advances across the area changing winds from southeast to
northwest. A brief period of MVFR conditions may follow the
front...but should not last more than an hour or 2 after the
fropa. LLWS will be a concern with strong llj around 50 kts
present tonight should sfc winds weaken with best threat at MCK.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



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