Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL
BECOME MORE APPARENT TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
HIRES ARW AND NMM GUIDANCE BOTH DEPICT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 3Z TO 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.
HIRES GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MAIN FLOW AS AN UPPER 35 TO 45 KT JET RIDES OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE AND HELP DRIVE THE CONVECTION
FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT.  CAPE VALUES VARY BETWEEN MODELS...WITH
RAP/GFS SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG...BUT HIRES ARW/NMM/NAM SHOW 2000
AND 3000 J/KG IN SOME PLACES.  BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT INDICATIVE
OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SHORT WINDOW OF HIGH CAPE VALUES PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE...CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
AFTER 9Z.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL MORNING.  FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITH GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER.

SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
ADVECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA.  WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S...CAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  A
SIMILAR SET UP WILL BE PRESENT FOR EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER.  FORECAST MODELS DO NOT HAVE STRONG CONVECTION
DEPICTED...BUT GIVEN THE SET UP WITH THE CAPE SET UP...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR AT LEAST SOME OF
THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF CWA TENDENCY SHOULD BE TOWARDS THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS A VERY WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL BETWEEN
GUIDANCE AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WOULD SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NORTH
TRANSLATING TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OUR CWA WITH
VARYING POSITIONS BETWEEN GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS LOCATION OF BEST
COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES
(AROUND 1.2") VERY GOOD MOISTURE FLUX AND AT LEAST MODERATE
INSTABILITY (POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 4000-5000 J/KG BASED ON NAM) WE
SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. WIND
PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SPEED SHEER...THOUGH THERE COULD BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL VEERING AS A RESULT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PERSPECTIVE. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND BACK
BUILDING ALONG/NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS COULD SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. IT IS STILL A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT I WOULD FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THIS SITUATION IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FINER DETAILS.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE SW US OR
GREAT BASIN (DEPENDING ON MODEL/MODEL RUN). LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE MAY ALSO BEGIN TO ADVECT THROUGH THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH SEASONAL HIGHS...UNSEASONAL DEWPOINTS...AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAPE VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DECIDED AGAINST
MAKING ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO STARTING BLEND AS IT DOES A GOOD JOB
OF MATCHING THE WET PATTERN WE ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

KGLD SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER KMCK MAY
LOWER TO MVFR AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH AROUND 06Z TUESDAY.
BEHIND THE STORMS, STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD MOVE INTO KMCK WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL MID MORNING. VFR WILL RETURN TO KMCK AT
THAT TIME AND REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD
AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS


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