Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281958
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

KGLD...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST BY
20Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND FL060. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH S-SE SURFACE WINDS.

KMCK...VFR. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND FL060 THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF






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