Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 132033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
233 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies are mainly sunny
to mostly sunny with temperatures ranging in the 80s. A general
southerly flow resides over the area as well with the region lying
ahead of a lee-side trough again over the Front Range.

For the rest of the afternoon and on into the evening hours...a
similar situation to wx from yesterday will occur. Lee-side trough
does sit over the Front Range with another shortwave coming over the
Rockies. The main difference from yesterday will be the fact that
less cloud cover at sunrise this morning...has allowed for the
entire area to show a marketed increase in instability which will
aid in the development of strong to severe t-storms...especially
when the shortwave works off the Rockies. Regional radar is already
showing convective activity over portions of central and southern
Colorado...which has to move eastward and will thus tap into the
highly unstable airmass over the CWA. As with yesterday...the main
threats will be large hail...damaging winds and heavy rain. There is
again an outside chance for a tornado to form as well. With
this...the SPC does have the entire CWA in a Slight Risk for severe
into the evening hours.

After midnight precip is expected to taper down...which will be
followed by the development of patchy fog that will carry into the
mid morning hours Monday. For the rest of Monday...H5 ridging over
the region during the day will temper any development of trw thru
much the day.

For temps...looking for overnight lows to drop into upper 50s thru
the mid 60s...warmest east. Daytime highs Monday will peak into the
85-90F range.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Below to near normal temperatures are anticipated in the extended
period with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

A trough continues to push across the High Plains on Wednesday with
west to northwest flow developing for the remainder of the period as
the trough flattens. Multiple disturbances eject through the flow
over the region, generating precipitation chances. In addition to
this, a cold front pushes into the area early Thursday and lingers
nearby through the end of the forecast period. This setup will allow
for showers and thunderstorms each day. Will have a better idea on
timing and location in the upcoming days.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s during the extended,
with low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For KGLD and KMCK... VFR conditions through the afternoon. Expect
showers and storms to impact the area from late afternoon into
the evening. Stronger storms may have damaging winds and heavy
rainfall that may restrict visibility. Expect clearing near
and after midnight. Some models hinting at fog at sunrise
tomorrow. Very little confidence in that at this time so omitted
from the TAF.




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