Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1030 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

No problems expected this period with ridging aloft and at the
surface resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds.
Temperatures will be near normal tonight and above to much above
normal on Thursday, with warmest temperatures in eastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

Next cold front will impact the local area on Friday. Models still
not quite in agreement with timing of the front, with the fastest
being the GFS which brings it through Friday afternoon and the
slowest the ECMWF which brings it through Friday night. Timing
will mainly impact Friday temperatures, with areas south of
Interstate warming up either way ahead of the front, while north
of the Interstate will depend on exact timing. Precipitation
chances arrive Friday night with the upper trough. Phase should
start out as liquid with a rather deep surface based warm layer,
but with time column will saturate low enough, and wet bulb zero
heights lower, to allow a transition to rain/snow or all snow in
eastern Colorado and eventually most of northwest Kansas/southwest
Nebraska during the overnight hours. However, no accumulation is
expected with warm ground temperatures and light precipitation.

The weekend will be dry under ridging/northwest flow. It will be
breezy on Saturday with temperatures slightly below normal. Winds
will diminish by Saturday night and turn southwest for Sunday,
allowing temperatures to rebound to near or slightly above normal.

The same pattern continues Monday and Tuesday. A weak front will
come through Monday night and knock temperatures down a bit for
Tuesday, but still near normal. Will have to watch out for a back
door cold front Tuesday night and Wednesday which may impact
eastern areas with colder temperatures. However, GFS and ECMWF
show radically different upper patterns by Wednesday, so
confidence is low.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1028 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFS. Still expecting LLWS to
develop at both terminals tonight as a band of strong low level
winds move east across the forecast area.




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