Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

BROAD 500MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES...COMBINING WITH
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE BEEN GIVING MANY LOCALES
IN THE FORECAST AREA NEAR FLOODING/FLOODING NUMBERS DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER PAST
FEW HOURS THOUGH AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EAST AND NORTH. EXPECTING BULK OF ACTIVITY TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. DO EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH OUT THE DAY THOUGH AS
UPPER LOW WONT SHIFT EASTWARD UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND HAVE GONE
AHEAD TO ADD INCREASING POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO HIGHLIGHT LOW
MOVEMENT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING EFFECTS FOR POTENTIAL
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MODELS DO BEGIN TO LIFT UPPER SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND HAVE THUS PUT IN A
TAPERING OF POPS THRU THE OVER NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST W/ HIGH
PRESSURE FILLING THE WEATHER GAP OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW/TROUGH.

WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RECEIVED THUS FAR...HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AS SOME SPOTS EASILY OVER 1-2"...BUT AS PRECIPITATION
LIFTS NORTHWARD THRU 12Z...THREAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND WILL
ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TOWARDS THAT TIME FRAME.

EXPECTING TEMPS TODAY TO BE AFFECTED BY CLD COVER/PRECIP...SO WILL
TREND NUMBERS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE A FEW BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND ABOVE FOR LOWS.

WILL BE ADDING MORNING FOG TO THE FORECAST MIX THIS MORNING AS WELL
TO ACCT FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

GOING INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME CLDS/RAIN REMNANTS OVER EASTERN ZONES POSSIBLE
DUE TO LINGERING TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA.

GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE
TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE YET ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF RW/TRW AS TWO
SHORTWAVES WORK OVER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NORTHERN TRACK DOES FAVOR HIGHEST POPS NORTH ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
NUMBERS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT TRENDING SLOWLY DOWN TO BLW NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL START
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY.  WHILE THERE WILL BE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH...A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.  THIS
WILL LIMIT BETTER PRECIP. CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF TO THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL BE.  IN ADDITION SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED.  WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA TUESDAY ONWARD. BEHIND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MULTILE SMALLER
SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
PATCHES OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNDAY.  AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT SO PRECIP.
CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRICKY SET OF TAFS DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST KGLD...SOME SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND KGLD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LAST AFFECT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A GUST
FRONT.

AFTER THE GUST FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS END...LIGHT UPSLOPE TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL ALLOW A FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS
AND SOME FOG TO DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL END AROUND 15Z WITH THE
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR AROUND 18Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT AT THIS TIME I EXPECT THEM TO BE
EAST OF THE KGLD SITE.

AT KMCK...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON BE AFFECTING
THE KMCK SITE. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS LINE. AFTER
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THERE...FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
SITE WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH KMCK HAVING A BETTER CHANCE THAN KGLD SO INCLUDED VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE REFINED WITH LATER FORECASTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER


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