Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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854
FXUS63 KGLD 111124
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
424 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 THROUGH LATE MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTING ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 AT MCCOOK TO MID 60S AT CHEYENNE
WELLS AND TRIBUNE. A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT ON FOG CHANCES TONIGHT
DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BUT DO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HOWEVER AS
SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY BEHIND ANOTHER SURGE OF
SHALLOW COLD AIR LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND COMPLICATE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. COOLED DOWN
HIGHS IN EASTERN AREAS AS A RESULT. AS THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL DEVELOP...WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE
MOISTURE GETS TO AROUND 1KM IN DEPTH...BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
25 ONCE AGAIN. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT MAY REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF IT
MATERIALIZES. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY...BUT
IF CLOUDS PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
RECOVER...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS...SO TRENDED ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE. A LARGE BATCH OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MOISTURE BELOW 700MB NOT
TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP IT DRY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CLOUDS SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT LEAVING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER...ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. MOST OF THE MID AND UPPER MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS IS NORTH OF
THE AREA SO AM EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NO
PRECIPITATION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY THEN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY CLOUDINESS EAST
OF THE AREA LEAVING US NEARLY IF NOT CLOUD FREE. WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST LOW TO MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR MID
FEBRUARY WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH LOW 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO MILD
(ABOUT TWICE AS WARM AS NORMAL) WITH LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

AT KMCK...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT
BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AT KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING HOURS
WHICH WILL BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024



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