Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING/MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FROM CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THERE IS A SPLIT AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.
A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...HARD TO TELL BUT MODELS LOOK TO BE UNDERDOING THE JET
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OTHERWISE THERE WERE NO
PROBLEMS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF. THE SREF AND NAM DID NOT DO WELL.
THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER WITH THE WIND/SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THE
MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRYING AND RIDGING PUSH INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUN. NUDGED UP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHING THROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SO THE EASTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH DECENT CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT HAVING WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. ALSO MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THAT THERE
WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED DURING THE NIGHT.
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN THE WINDY
CATEGORY. DID GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO RUN A LITTLE TOO COOL LATELY. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN SHOWING
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS A LITTLE UNUSUAL FOR A NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THIS THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY VERY
MILD.

AS YESTERDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS YESTERDAY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. EVERYTHING STILL POINTS TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GO. LIFT LOOKS TO
BECOME DISORGANIZED ALOFT. HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DOES
DEVELOP. SO CAN SEE ANY ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BECAUSE OF THIS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECAUSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING.

MODEL STARTING TO CHANGE THEIR STORY FROM YESTERDAY WHICH THEY HAVE
BEEN DOING A LOT LATELY IN THIS FLOW PATTERN. NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD WITH IMPORTANT AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
THAT AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF EVERY FORECAST PARAMETER. COMPLEX JET
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ONE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
AFFECTS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
MOVING IN RIGHT BEHIND IT DURING THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS DIFFER IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF SYSTEM THAT MOVES TO ALONG THE
UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AFFECTS HOW FAST THE
INCOMING FRONT ARRIVES.

THE LATEST UKMET...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT INTO
THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN ANYTHING ELSE. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT
ALMOST EXITING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z NAM IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE ABOVE BUT IT DID COME IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z RUN. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
FASTER ECMWF WITH THE GEFS MEAN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE ECMWF. TENDENCY
HAS BEEN IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO COME IN FURTHER
SOUTH AND FOR THE FRONTS TO COME THROUGH FASTER. SO WILL BE LEANING
TOWARD THE FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAKES THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TRICKY. ADJUSTED MAXES AND HAVE THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD.

THE MID AND UPPER LIFT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST LIFT
ALOFT IS ACTUALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT DOES NOT GET ANY FASTER...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OR SO THROUGH THE EVENING.

NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WIND. BECAUSE THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
FASTER...THE STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE SHOVED
FURTHER EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
HAVING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA.

AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE IS THE COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LARGE AREA OF 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 10 MB AND ABOVE WILL MAKE FOR VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS. SO WILL END UP HAVING A WIND ADVISORY EITHER AHEAD OR
BEHIND THE FRONT OR BOTH. EVEN AFTER THE THEY DECREASE FROM
EARLIER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY (HIGHEST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS MID 30S TO 40 WEST...LOW
40S EAST.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 60S TO LOW 70S GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN THE SPEED
OF THIS DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUT STILL LACK AGREEMENT
IN THE INTENSITY...WHETHER ITS AN OPEN TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF OR
CLOSED LIKE THE GFS. WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THUNDER CHANCES
AS A RESULT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AS UPPER
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HAVE AGAIN LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF IS TO HAVE SOME TYPE
OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE SATURDAYS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A GENERAL
LACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT A MODEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 06Z WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AFTER 10Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING WITH THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FOR TUESDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT NOT AS A HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY HAD
IN THERE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR WEST GET CLOSE TO 20
PERCENT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
BEING ISSUED.

FOR WEDNESDAY....WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM EITHER AHEAD OR
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...NOT SURE OF THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS
IF THE FRONT COMES IN FASTER THEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY NOT STAY
LOW ENOUGH FOR VERY LONG. SO VERY UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHERE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS
BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
25 MPH LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO ALL BUT CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO...
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES OF KANSAS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER




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