Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231703
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1003 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

DUE TO MULTIPLE REPORTS OF VISIBILITIES AROUND A MILE EAST OF THE
HIGH WIND WARNING...AND WITH VISIBILITIES NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON DURING ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE
YEAR...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
COUNTIES EAST OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
WILL LIKELY END UP CANCELING THE ADVISORY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE...BUT WANTED TO KEEP THE
EXPIRATION TIMES OF THE PRODUCTS THE SAME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 753 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THE WINDS/SNOWFALL. AM SOMEWHAT SURPRISED AT HOW SLOWLY THE
WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. NEAR TERM MODELS STILL
INDICATE THE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL HAVE GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH OVER WESTERN KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. HOWEVER MODELS ARE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTS
REACHING 60 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH EAST OF THE COLORADO
LINE THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER STILL HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WARNING CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE REACHED TO KEEP THE
WARNING FOR THE KANSAS COUNTIES GOING...JUST NOT AS CONFIDENT
ABOUT IT AS YESTERDAY.

A SECONDARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM THE
BLOWING SNOW. HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE VISIBILITY REPORTS THROUGH
THE MORNING. SO VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER SNOWFALL SHOULD SPREAD EAST DURING THE
MID MORNING AS THE WINDS INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
VISIBILITY TRENDS TO SEE IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISOR WILL BE
NEEDED IF VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW A MILE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIME. DURING THE AFTERNOON SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE.

DID INCREASE SNOWFALL CHANCES FOR THE DAY BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AM
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED AT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOWFALL...SO DID
KEEP THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GOING A BIT LONGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE MIDWEST
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT SO FAR AND
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PICK UP A LITTLE BIT LATER THIS MORNING
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. AS WIND MAX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
AREA...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WIND
WARNING IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
EASTWARD...SO DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH. CONSIDERATION ALSO
GIVEN TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS
ABOUT 50/50 FOR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF LESS THAN 1
MILE...DUE TO MARGINALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS. NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO
LESS THAN A MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCES FOR THAT OCCURRING WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SNOW WILL START TO WIND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON ENDING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
IMPACTED BY SNOWCOVER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SO FAVORED COOLER MAX
TEMPS.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
CHRISTMAS DAY AND EMERGE ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING IN EASTERN COLORADO IN THE
EVENING GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LARGER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION WITH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW ALSO LIFTING
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY SUNDAY.  THIS PRECEDES A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MAINLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 429 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW BANDS COMBINED WITH
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50KTS WILL RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS 1/2SM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BLOWING SNOW BECOMING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES RAPIDLY IMPROVE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>003-014-015-028-029.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ013-027-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...024



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