Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250817

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Main concern will be extent of fog/dense fog after midnight into
tomorrow morning. High resolution guidance remaining consistent
in developing fog with areas of dense fog appearing more likely.
Since yesterday the area of fog continues to be a little further
west with most of the area east of the Colorado border having a
good chance. So I pulled the fog further west and having it last
through mid morning tomorrow.

Sref probabilities and other high resolution would support a dense
fog advisory having to be issued for later on tonight. 12z and 18z
Nam very consistent and the Nmm, which was capturing the wind
field the best, were showing dense fog east of the Colorado
border. Enough difference in the output that I was not certain
enough as to the area to issue an advisory for with the eastern
half having the best chance. Evening shift has been briefed and
will watch closely.

Overnight temperatures will be a function of how fast the stratus
moves in. Eastern areas will be the warmest. Stratus hangs on in
the east into the afternoon. Kept the blend high temperatures but
possible that it could end up being a little cooler in the east
than what is in there. Any precipitation looks to either be east
of the area or waits to form until early in the evening. So kept
the eastern locations dry for the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Ridge axis will be situated directly over top of the CWA on Friday
with westerly flow aloft. Due to continued dry conditions and low
relative humidity Friday afternoon, there will be increased fire
danger mainly through the afternoon and into the early evening. A
fast moving cold front will push through the area late Friday
afternoon, shifting the winds northwesterly. At this time, winds
look to remain under 25 mph both before and after the front; however
the recent GFS and ECMWF trend is underestimating the wind gusts
and these may need to be adjusted accordingly.

A shortwave trough pushes into the central Plains Saturday morning,
shifting the upper flow a bit more northwesterly and flattening the
H5 ridge a bit. No precipitation is expected with this trough as the
air mass remains very dry. The ridge will recover and build once
more as we head into Sunday; however it will be pushed eastward late
in the day as a much larger area of low pressure moves into the
northern Great Basin late Sunday night and into Monday. Upper flow
will shift southwesterly as the trough approaches from the west.

Overall we are looking at temperatures through the extended that
will remain well above average. High temperatures will be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday and will fall as we head into the
weekend in the wake of the cold front. Saturday and Sunday will see
highs in the lower to middle 70s, which is around 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for late October. Temperatures will warm to near 80
degrees once more on Monday with a cold front bringing temperatures
down through the afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will be closer to
normal with lower to middle 60s expected in the wake of the cold


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Areas of low clouds and fog are expected to develop overnight at
both KGLD and KMCK, due to combination of light upslope surface
winds, moisture advection and radiational cooling. Flight
categories as low as IFR or VLIFR will be possible around sunrise,
before gradually improving through Tuesday morning.




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