Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 092253
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 453 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

AS OF 450 PM MDT...AN UNSTABLE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. SBCAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS AND LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM
WAS ANALYZED BY LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO
FIRE OVER OUR REGION. RATHER...CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
IS ANTICIPATED TO GROW UPSCALE IN AN MCS THAT SWEEPS OVER THE
REGION. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. LCLS ARE QUITE HIGH SO THE TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL
WITH THESE STORMS. IF A THREAT DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE LATER THIS
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 453 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT. WILL BE
UPDATING THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN NEXT 30-45 MINUTES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY...OTHERWISE A HOT AND
BREEZY DAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT. AT LOW LEVELS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN WARM AIR...WITH
A RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

TODAY...SUNNY AND BREEZY MOST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE
ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WARMER TODAY...850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S C TODAY...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. SOME GUIDANCE ACTUALLY KEEPS HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S...BUT THINK MOST PLACES WILL MANAGE TO HIT AT LEAST 90 TODAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...HAVE SOME INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVE SINCE GENERALLY
DISSIPATED.

STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT INITIATION OF STORMS TODAY.
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO APPEARS ON TRACK TO
POSSIBLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS...ESPECIALLY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. MORNING GUIDANCE
STILL PERSISTENT WITH A STUBBORN CAP AROUND 700MB PRODUCING 100-150
J/KG CIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING. STILL...BESIDES THE CAP SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND
1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STEEP. WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH 30 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AVAILABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS
COULD ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THIS
COULD SUSTAIN DEVELOPMENT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD. EXPECT STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS STORMS CLEAR OUR
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TOMORROW...WARMER AND BREEZY. MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER LOW/SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO. A NUMBER OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS RIDGE...WHICH WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TERRAIN-BASED STORMS OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND
PALMER DIVIDE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LITTLE CAPE /LESS THAN 500
J/KG SBCAPE/ AND AROUND 20 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR. 850MB TEMPS REACHING
THE LOW 30S C...WHICH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S...PERHAPS NEAR 100 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF NORTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN REACHING THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO DISTURBANCES
COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL START
THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST COOLER AIR
WILL BE ALLOWED TO COME SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOLING
TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK...WITH CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR WORSE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
ULTIMATELY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SCATTERED SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR VCTS FOR BOTH GLD AND MCK UNTIL BETTER
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION CAN BE DETERMINED. ANY STORMS
COULD POSSIBLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD /LESS THAN AN HOUR/...BUT DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
SUCH A REDUCTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...RETURNING AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...RRH
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JJM






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