Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201741
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT LAYER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA FROM SW NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP BRING INCREASING TD VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST BE MAY NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL
FOR A ADVECTION FOG EVENT FROM DOWNSTREAM SOURCES...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. BL WINDS INCREASE TO THE
15-22KT RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIX OUT AS A
HEAVY FROST OR A LOW STRATUS LAYER ESTABLISH ITSELF. WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN PLACE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

WESTERLY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA OVER OUR CWA
SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN LOCATION OF
WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL AND TREND IS FOR BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TO
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. I COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT LOW LEVELS THUS
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. GFS/ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT GENERAL TREND IS FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR ALOFT TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S (WEST TO EAST).

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER RATHER WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
35 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
COULD BE COOLER IF THE ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY. LOWS AGAIN
MID TEENS TO MID 20S (WEST TO EAST).

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500 HEIGHTS
START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  ALONG WITH RISING UPPER
HEIGHTS ARE WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF WHILE THE GFS
ACTUALLY HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BASICALLY A STALEMATE AT PRESENT AND ITS REFLECTED IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WHICH NEARLY MIRROR MONDAYS. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SEASONAL
WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY BIG DISPARITIES BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WITH
THE GFS WARMING TEMPERATURES (PER 850 TEMPS) WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS READINGS MUCH COOLER. GFS HAS RISING HEIGHTS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NO CHANGES/TWEAKS MADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE WITH
THE AMOUNT AND WHERE TO EXACTLY PUT IT.

AT THIS TIME THE BRUNT OF THE INCREASE AND THE RESULTING STRATUS
AND FOG LOOK TO BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH KMCK HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEE A SCATTERED LOW DECK. THE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG AS WELL. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT KMCK
MAY SEE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER


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