Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 050014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
614 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE CLEARING REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH SHORTLY AS VERY
COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AFTER THE STORMS PASSAGE. WITH SUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURRING AND AT LEAST LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT THINK BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES
IS NOW OVER. WILL BE FOCUSING ON FOG RISK TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THINGS TO START MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PRECONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AS A COOLER...BUT MORE HUMID AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS REVEAL LOCATIONS
WILL BE STARTING THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUAL CLEARING FOG APPEARS
LIKELY. WHILE FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES...MCK AREA
APPEARS A BIT MORE PRECONDITIONED WITH LOW TD DEPRESSIONS AND
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND HAVE THUSLY SIG REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
HERE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM


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