Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 311004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
404 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
TROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE
WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT EXPECT ANY
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TO CIRCUMNAVIGATE THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF
MAKING IT OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY EVENTUALLY
EVOLVING INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BY MID WEEK. BY LATE MONDAY
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ASCENT IN COMBINATION WITH AT
LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN FROM PRECEDING DAYS OF SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING IN THE WEST AND THEN INCREASING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UNTIL THEN...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND KMCK
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KMCK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KMCK
POINT OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS BUT HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION LARGE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS





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