000
FXUS63 KGLD 071803
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1103 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE GENERALLY RISEN ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW ZERO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE. SOME SPOTS WILL LIKELY HOVER AROUND 15 BELOW AS WINDS
INCREASE TODAY AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB...BUT BELIEVE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. THAT SAID...WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL HAVING MY DOUBTS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY. MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 700MB OR LOWER WITH SEEDER
MECHANISM FOR A MORE SUSTAINED LIGHT SNOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE ARE SOME JET DYNAMICS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE MID LEVELS ARE DRY.
SUPPOSE WE COULD GET SOME FLURRIES GIVEN DENDRITIC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WHICH ARE SATURATED LINE UP BUT RIGHT NOW NOT MUCH
ELSE. FOR TONIGHT CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST 1/3 OF THE AREA LOOK GOOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS BETTER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
BEFORE LIFTING LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HIGHS GENERALLY 10-15 WITH LOWS ZERO TO 10
ABOVE...COLDEST ACROSS THE WEST. STILL EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE GOODLAND AND BURLINGTON AREAS DOWN TO TRIBUNE. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT AS VALUES HOVER AROUND -15F.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERAL THINKING IS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DECREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TO UPPER
TEENS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW 20 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO FOR THE
EAST THROUGH SOUTH WHILE TO THE WEST ZERO TO TEN BELOW
ZERO...COLDEST IN WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE WELLS TO GOODLAND AND OBERLIN.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...LOTS OF SUN WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS 850 TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. MET/MAV AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS QUITE A
BIT COLDER WITH LOW 20S. BLENDING THE TWO OUTCOMES YIELDS HIGHS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 20S EAST
OF THE BORDER. LOWS 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 5-10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

PRECIPITATION FREE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE MIGHT BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS CHANCE COMES AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER NEARS
SATURATION. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH...OVER WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT POPS DRY BUT THIS WAS THE ONLY PERIOD THAT WAS
CONSIDERED FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS OR MENTION OF FLURRIES.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ANOTHER COLD SURFACE HIGH SAGS
SOUTH AND COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
WHOLE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OVER EAST COLORADO. THE CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS BOTH AGREE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE GFS
2-4 DEGREES WARMER AT 850 MB. DUE TO THE PERFORMANCE/VERIFICATION OF
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OVER THE PAST WEEK...HAVE NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. SIMILARLY...DUE TO THE
PERFORMANCE OF CONSMOS OVER THE PAST MONTH...HAVE NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CONSMOS WHICH LOWERS THEM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
NIGHT.

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS MODELS AGREE ON
A QUICK EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WOULD INDICATE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR FINALLY
FORCED EAST. THIS IDEA IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE LATEST EUROPEAN RUN
BUT WAS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AS THE EUROPEAN SINCE
THE GFS SUGGESTS A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND. WITH A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR WARMING AND AN INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS...THOUGHT A HIGH
TEMP FORECAST OF LOW 40S AND A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WARMER EUROPEAN
MODEL WAS A DECENT FIRST GUESS. THIS WOULD FINALLY BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A MUCH WELCOME
CHANGE FROM THE VERY COLD WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THESE
PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS.  FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS KGLD WILL BE NEAR MVFR CEILINGS.  KITR IS JUST UNDER 3KFT
BUT TO THE SOUTHEAST KLAA AND KTRB ARE BOTH ABOVE 3KT.  WITH A
PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST WIND...AM MORE INCLINED TO KEEP CEILINGS VFR
FOR KGLD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS EVENING CEILINGS LOWER AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST.  BOTH SITES WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ANY SNOW
THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VISIBILITY.  WITH
INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER FOR BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  DURING THE MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANY SNOWFALL TO AN END AND
ALLOWING CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL