Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
412 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...cold temperatures
prevail under clear temps are ranging mainly in the
20s w/ a few colder locales are in the mid and upper teens.
Winds are light out of the WSW.

For today right on thru Wednesday night...models have the region
under nearly zonal H5/H7 flow...veering more SW late in the
period as a low digs into the Central Rockies. High pressure at
the surface along with a couple lee-side troughs that move off the
Front Range will combine with the zonal downslope H5/H7 flow to
give the area dry conditions along with above normal temperatures.

For temps...the area will see daytime highs in the 50s today and
on Tuesday...peaking into the lower 60s by Wednesday. These
numbers will be 10-20 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will
range in the 20s which will be 5-15 degrees above normal. High
temps on Wednesday will be within 5-7 degrees of record highs.

Please refer to the Climate Section below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

A strong surge of cold air pushes into the region on Thursday. Model
solutions continue to differ as the GFS is far more progressive per
the 00Z guidance. The slower and colder ECMWF brings the cold air in
during the early afternoon and into the evening hours with a slight
chance of light snow possible mainly in our far northernmost
counties. Cannot rule out a light rain snow mix or flurries as far
south as Interstate 70. 850mb temperatures continue to be within the
-13C to -8C range Thursday night and Friday morning, supporting
overnight lows in the upper single digits to lower teens with breezy
north to northwest winds. Highs on Friday will climb to near
freezing in most areas.

The next push of cold air arrives Friday night and will be
accompanied by a bit more moisture than Thursday`s system. The
ECMWF/GFS/Canadian are all in relatively good agreement with regards
to the arrival of the shortwave and associated moisture. The
consensus brings the first snowflakes into the area just before 06Z
Saturday. A good chance of light snow will then continue through the
day Saturday and all the way into Sunday as another reinforcing
shortwave traverses the region. Light snow should taper off late
Sunday night (Christmas Eve) and into early Christmas morning.

Initial snowfall totals will generally range from 2 to 4
inches; however, with the event still several days out, it is
prudent to allow for changes to the final amounts. Additionally, due
to the timing of this system during a busy travel weekend, planning
for potentially higher than average impacts are warranted.

Aside of the snowfall totals, frigid air will accompany this system,
with the source region being the Northwest Passages. High
temperatures will only climb into the upper teens to lower 20s both
Saturday and Sunday with lows in the lower single digits to just
below 0F.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

Conditions...VFR for both sites with SKC becoming SCT200.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD WSW around 10kts thru 05z Tuesday...then NW
around 10kts. For KMCK SW around 10kts thru 05z Tuesday...then WNW
around 10kts.


Issued at 412 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

Here are the record high temperatures for Wednesday, December

Goodland KS    73/1981
McCook NE      68/2003
Burlington CO  68/1981
Hill City KS   70/1941
Colby KS       73/1894
Tribune KS     77/1894
Yuma CO        69/1981




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