000
FXUS63 KGLD 072056
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR A RELATIVELY MINOR RAIN-TO-SNOW EVENT. ON
THE BROAD SCALE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...WITH
THE REAL COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND DECENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT A LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW EVENT IS
IN STORE. DESPITE SNOW TONIGHT TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK UP TO NEAR 50
AGAIN TOMORROW.

TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SKY COVER HAS
BEEN A CHALLENGE TODAY AS CLOUDS CLEARED OUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN OVERCAST MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MOVES INTO
THE REGION. ACCORDINGLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP BEYOND MOST GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HEATING...BUT THIS WILL
TURN AROUND SOON AS THE COLD AIR IS KNOCKING OUR DOORSTEPS WITH KLBF
REPORTING SNOW AS OF 18Z. DUE TO THE WARMTH AND DEEPER MIXING WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THIS HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST WINDS BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION IS A
CHALLENGE WITH...THE LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW NOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE RAIN TO
SNOW IN EASTERN COLORADO MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE LATER POTION OF
THE SYSTEM...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN FOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST KANSAS...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED IN EASTERN COLORADO AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...EVENING WILL BEING WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE PREDICTED...AND
SNOWFALL COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL QPF
/LIQUID/ AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES IN EASTERN COLORADO
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...ELSEWHERE A
COATING TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED...WITH AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
PROBABLY NOT SEEING MORE THAN A HALF INCH. SNOW SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
OF AN ISSUE ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPS TODAY RESULTING IN
WARMER SURFACES...AND WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT AND TIMING POST-DINNER
TIME THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BE MINOR. AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS WILL COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 20 IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ON SATURDAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND FAIRLY
DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY... CHANGING TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL SNOW FORECASTS ARE IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...THOUGH EVEN THAT MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH WITH A MIX TO START AND ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW ALOFT THOUGH APPEARS
RIDGING WILL BE PREDOMINANT AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD
AND MCK. A CHALLENGING FORECAST...ONE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UPDATED AS CONDITIONS CHANGE. SKIES HAVE BEEN A MIXED BAG...WITH
MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS NOW CLEARING OUT DESPITE GUIDANCE
INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS. THAT SAID...IFR CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER SOON. WINDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS HAVING
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THESE WINDS SHOULD KEEP UP THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TIMING IS A CHALLENGE...BUT AM STILL THINKING START TIME WILL BE IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON BECOMING MOST INTENSE TONIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR CUT... WITH RAIN QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EARLY TOMORROW CONDITIONS WILL DRAMATICALLY
IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR AT BOTH SITES BY SUNRISE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
EARLIER THAN THAT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JJM