


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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259 FXUS63 KGLD 092349 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 549 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week at least with the main threat of damaging winds. - Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Tonight, much like the last few days, storms will fire up to our west around 21-22z. These storms will attempt to move through the area, but short range models are generally in agreement that these storms will weaken as they move eastward due to the lack of shear today. The main threats with these storms will be large hail for our westernmost areas this afternoon and early evening thanks in part due to the higher lapse rates in that area. Later in the evening, a cluster of storms is expected to graze our area as it moves across our northeasternmost counties. There is still some uncertainty on the timing and generally whether theses storms will influence our area or slide a little further east, but generally we expect our easternmost locations to see the potential for severe weather late tonight. Generally, the main threats associated with these storms will be damaging winds (60+mph). For this reason, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather with the Slight Risk area just to our east and north. The timing for these later storms will be generally around or after 00z and should move through our area by around 4z timeframe. MSW && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Thursday, a shortwave upper level system will be moving through the area, enhancing rain and storm chances. Conditions tomorrow look favorable for severe weather as this system moves through from west to east starting around 21-22z and progressing eastward through the evening hours. Generally, the biggest limiting factor right now is shear as it is a big weaker than expected. And instability is marginal, but adequate. As this system moves through, the main threats will be severe damaging winds 60-75mph and a lesser threat of hail is forecast. We are outlooked in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather to reflect these conditions. This system will be fairly progressive, so any flash flooding concerns should be quite localized. Friday through the weekend, weak zonal flow and a potential weak shortwave could be moving through the area, enhancing rain chances. Right now, there is a lot of model uncertainty in the timing of the rain or any severity. Friday, at least, the general consensus is for strong to severe storms to fire up in eastern CO and progress through our area in the afternoon and evening hours. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather Friday mainly for the damaging wind concern. Beyond Friday, the general pattern remains quite a bit uncertain, more than usual. But generally expect daily potential for strong to severe storms to be moving through the area this weekend. The main threats with these storms would be damaging winds (50-60mph) and large hail. MSW && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 550 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 VFR conditions are occurring across the area early this evening with southerly winds gusty up to around 20kts at times. Storms have developed across southwestern South Dakota and northwestern Nebraska and this activity will move southeast this evening and tonight. Much of the activity will remain north and east of the area but the far eastern portions of the area could get clipped between 3 to 5Z. Outflow from the storms will likely move into portions of the area affecting the KMCK site late this evening and possibly the KGLD site resulting in a brief wind shift and gusty winds. Additional thunderstorm chances will be possible late Thursday afternoon and evening and could impact the TAF sites late in the TAF period with chances in convection increasing just after the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Williams LONG TERM...Williams AVIATION...Wise