Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 120700
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE FICKLE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SNOW PACK STILL IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
WELL AS LINGERING CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. AS THE CLOUDS
STARTED CLEARING OUT...AS SEEN ON THE VISIBLE...TEMPERATURES
STARTED TO GO UP ACROSS THE REGION. MCCOOK NEBRASKA WAS
TRICKY...THIS WAS DUE TO THE FREEZING FOG THEY HAD THIS MORNING
THAT LINGERED OVER THE AREA UNTIL AROUND 18Z TO 19Z. AFTER THE FOG
LIFTED THE TEMPERATURES INCREASED OVER THAT AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AROUND
06Z STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALONG WITH HI
RES AND NAM12 MODELS BRINGING CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PATCHY FREEZING FOG
WAS FORECASTED FOR THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. MCCOOK NEBRASKA
CURRENTLY IS FORECASTED TO HAVE A HIGH AT 36 DEGREES F BUT THIS
COULD POSSIBLY BE LOWER. KIT CARSON COLORADO WILL HAVE SOME OF THE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA IN THE MID 50S DUE TO THE STRATUS
NOT REACHING THAT AREA UNTIL THE EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND OR
BELOW 10 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BROUGHT QUITE A BIT MORE
CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS. MOISTURE BELOW 700MB REMAINS RATHER DRY THUS NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LEAVING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
9C EAST TO 13C WEST WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS LOW TO MID 60S.
LATEST FORECAST SHOWING MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY THEN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY CLOUDINESS EAST
OF THE AREA LEAVING US NEARLY IF NOT CLOUD FREE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BUT
GIVEN NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY IS IN THE MID 40S STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO
MILD (ABOUT TWICE AS WARM AS NORMAL) WITH LOW TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ANY CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH A DRY FORECAST CONTINUING. LATEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20C WHICH ALONE
SUPPORT MID 60S TO AROUND 70. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
READINGS A BIT HIGHER BUT WITH THE CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD IT COULD
PUT A DAMPER ON FULL 850MB MIXING. LOW TEMPERATURES TWICE WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING AT KMCK TOWARD SUNRISE AS STRATUS AND FOG MOVE
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD KGLD BY MIDDAY
WITH CIGS LOWERING THERE AS WELL BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR AT
KGLD WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT KMCK THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KMCK BY MIDDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING AT BOTH SITES AS UPSLOPE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES CAUSE
CIGS/VIS TO LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR AND REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS


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