Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 130503
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1103 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

LIFT AND NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES MAKING GOOD USE OF WHAT
LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS CURRENTLY IN THE COLUMN. SOME VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING CAP AROUND 00Z WITH
INSTABILITY DECREASING AND THE CAP STRENGTHENING AGAIN BY
03Z...EXPECT ANY POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM TO BE SHORT LIVED
THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MORE STRATIFORM THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY
BRANCH LIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW CENTER LIFTS OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE SUNDAY.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE NORTH WINDS THAT WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  SINCE WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
ME MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STAGNANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER ON
EXIT OF PRECIP...WITH GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE AT LEAST IN PLACE
THROUGH ABOUT 6Z. A SLOWER DEPARTURE WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE IN
THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH BETTER CAA
AFTER 00Z. I SLOWED DOWN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH A
DECREASING TREND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE
ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP END ANY LINGERING PRECIP
OVER OUR CWA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST STILL
COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS. AIR TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW
FREEZING...AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS LESS THAT
20F DESPITE CLOUD COVER/WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS. WITH TEMPS THIS
COLD...ANY OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOULD STICK. I DID BUMP SNOW AMOUNTS UP A
LITTLE HOWEVER IT SILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND LESS THAN 3" REQUIREMENT FOR ADVISORY. IF
SLOWER TREND CONTINUES AND WE SEE LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW LATER WE MAY
NEED A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
SUNDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR SOME BLOWING
SNOW IF PRECIP CHANGEOVER HAPPENS EARLY ENOUGH WHEN 20-30MPH WINDS
ARE ONGOING.

CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST FREEZE/FROST IS STILL NOT UNTIL FIRST PART OF
MAY...SO IT IS STILL EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS.
DECIDED TO MENTION HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN HWO AS RECENT WARM WEATHER THIS LAST WEEK MAY HAVE THROWN
EVERYONE OFF.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING/SPIT FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT
MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THESE PERIODS. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO SEASONAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
60S/NEAR 70F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROGGED
BY DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THESE
PERIODS. NOT A LOT OF OVERLAP ON TIMING/EVOLUTION...HOWEVER OVERALL
TRENDS DO SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH EVEN WARMER ECMWF
SHOWING CHANCE FOR SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING (AND
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW). WHILE HIGHS COULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
THURSDAY...I FELT IT WAS REASONABLE TO KEEP RAIN/SNOW MENTION ALL
DAY DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL ADVERTISED ON ECMWF. IF GFS VERIFIES WE
WOULD NOT SEE HIGHS OUT OF THE 30S...AND WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SNOWFALL. WILL DEFINITELY NEED WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES...IT IS JUST TO FAR OUT TO GET TO SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS/DRY CONDITIONS WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
CONDITIONS WORSEN RAPIDLY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE DEVELOPING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT EARLIER EXPECTATIONS SO
SLOWED THAT AND THE ONSET OF THE PHASE CHANGE AS WELL. BY
18Z...IFR TO NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY 12Z AND THEN WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 KNOT TO
30 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS BY 18Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BULLER






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