000
FXUS63 KGLD 162018
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
218 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Just completed an update. Increased cloud cover over the northwest
portion of the area through mid afternoon. Also lowered maxes a
little, mainly in the northwest portion where there is more cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The upper low pressure area over the northern Great Basin lifts
into southern Canada by Sunday with southwest flow aloft over the
forecast area transitioning to a more zonal flow by late Sunday
through Monday ahead of the next low pressure area moving in from
the Pacific Northwest by mid week.

The surface frontal boundary currently moving through the region
continues across the plains states today with a cooler area of
high pressure to remain across the region during the weekend. The
remnants of the surface front moves back northward across the
region as a warm front late Sunday into Monday with a weak short
wave trough aloft moving east of the Rockies and across the
central high plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and behind the frontal boundary to be
enhanced by the more moist return flow around the exiting high
pressure area. A few marginally severe storms will be possible as
a result before the storms lift out of the region on Monday.

High temperatures on Monday are expected to be back in the 80s
following high temperatures mainly in the 70s during the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Sunday night-Monday: Shortwave moves across the CWA in the southwest
flow aloft early Sunday evening. At the surface, cold front from
earlier in the weekend retreats back through the area as a warm
front. This will help to bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the night and into Monday morning, moving
from west to east. Severe weather parameters are fairly marginal
at this point. Model soundings show good shear, but low CAPE.
Could see some inch sized hail or strong wind gusts. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal for the period.

Tuesday-Wednesday: This period should be dry. On Tuesday, low
relative humidity and strong SW winds in Cheyenne and Kit Carson
counties in CO could result in elevated fire weather conditions.
Temps will be back in the 90s on Tuesday. Cold front passes through
the CWA on Tuesday night. Cooler, closer to normal temps for
Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday: Global models continue to show a strong longwave
trough/closed low approaching the area during the period.
Disagreement of location, timing, and strength creates low
confidence in what exact impacts our CWA can expect. Do expect
temps above average until the feature pushes through and should
see cooler temps closer to average by Saturday afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For KMCK and KGLD... VFR conditions should prevail through the
period. Low stratus currently over Yuma County (CO) and Dundy
County (NE) is trying to push south towards KGLD. Current
satellite trends show it thinning as it gets near the terminal.
Will be monitored through the afternoon. Gusty winds at both
terminals through the afternoon until near sunset as winds relax.
There will be scattered showers across the area after midnight and
into the morning, but do not feel they will affect the terminals.
May see some lowered ceilings after sunrise tomorrow.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...SME