000
FXUS63 KGLD 012143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SUN DEC 1 2013

MILD WEATHER CONTINUES AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STREAMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.  A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CONSOLIDATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION ON
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  SURFACE PRESSURES ALL
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT SOME INCREASE
IN SKY COVER AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT IT TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES AS THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL AID IN HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.  WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS...THE FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME ELEVATED...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TO REACH FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SUN DEC 1 2013

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...HOW COLD IT WILL GET WITH THIS
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY PROBLEMATIC WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN FASTER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS. MODELS
HAVE BEGUN TO HONE IN ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FORCES THE FRONT SOUTH. THE NAM
WAS AND OUTLIER AS THE FASTEST OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HOWEVER THE
REINS HAVE BEEN PULLED BACK FOR THE 18Z RUN. THE GFS...EUROPEAN AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT
REMAIN OFF WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH IT COOLS OFF
INITIALLY. ON AVERAGE...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE 10 DEGREES
OFF FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE 20 DEGREE
SPREAD GIVEN YESTERDAY BETWEEN THE TWO...HOWEVER IF YOU FACTOR IN
THE NAM...THERE IS STILL A 20 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPS.
BASICALLY TOOK THE MIDDLE ROAD FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT LEAN
TO THE COOLER SOLUTIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AND BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT...FAVORABLE FOR LIFT...MAY BE POSITIONED OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA. IN ADDITION...WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY.
OVERALL...AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST
EXPECTED. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DENSE CLOUD COVER AND NORTH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-20 KTS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING AS LOW AS GUIDANCE ADVERTISES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
IF ANY WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY SEEMS REASONABLE. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY BUT AM NOT BUYING IT
DUE TO THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND NORTHWEST
CANADA...BEGINS TO MAKE ITS FULL PRESENCE FELT. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING IN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EACH NIGHT FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ARE EXPECTED. 850 MB TEMPS
DROP INTO THE -15 TO -18 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE WITH THE CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS TRENDING EVEN COLDER. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY APPROACH ZERO AND
COULD EVEN DIP LOWER THAN THAT. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

THE NEXT PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SHOW PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS PRECISELY WHAT
THE ALLBLEND SUGGESTED. IT DOES SEEM AS THOUGH MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THIS PRECIPITATION FROM THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY
SO DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS AT THIS TIME.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO SET IN BY SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT LOBE
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE ABOUT A DAY
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL NOT
RISE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ALL
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. IN ADDITION...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING SOUTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE TRI-STATE
AREA VERY COLD INTO NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER. PREPARE FOR A
LONG PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST SUN DEC 1 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART