Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281749
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AT PRESENT TIME UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND
WESTERN COLORADO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PLUME OF 700-300 MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FORECAST TO NUDGE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA BY DAYS END
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE TIED TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.50-1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH STORM
MOTIONS 10 MPH OR LESS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 60 TO 65 TONIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WITH THE VORT MAX
WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH STORM
MOTIONS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN TO WATCH IS THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST MUCH
SOONER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE 700-300 MOISTURE
PLUME SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING TO PERHAPS VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN REDUCING THE THREAT. HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER
WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

KGLD...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST BY
20Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND FL060. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH S-SE SURFACE WINDS.

KMCK...VFR. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND FL060 THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF









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