000
FXUS63 KGLD 140445
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 PM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

DRY...WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA TODAY. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS TO BE PANNING OUT
WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NOW SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION...AND WINDS KEEPING THE
AIR MASS WELL MIXED...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DID RAISE THE MINS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF BREEZY WINDS.

CLOUD COVER DECREASES EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WEST. DOES LOOK LIKE A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH
MAYBE A 10 DEGREE DROP FROM TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENT HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THEM.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN TOMORROW BUT WINDS AS STATED
ABOVE WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS THEN DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER 20S WEST TO MID 30S EAST. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT MID 20S WEST TO AROUND 30 EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY MID 50S WEST
TO MID 60S EAST.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL OVER THE
LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST
OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET WITH NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S EAST WITH MID 50S WEST. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SPEED AND ARRIVAL OF
UPPER TROUGH DIFFERENTLY AND WITH THAT CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. MODEST CONFIDENCE IN RISING MONDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES PER ECMWF/GFS AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MID AND
PERHAPS UPPER 70S. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS HAVE
NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES AS A START...COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THAT COULD PUT A DENT IN FULL MIXING.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH QUESTION BEING JUST HOW COOL GIVEN
DISCREPANCIES IN FRONTS ARRIVAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED
PROCEDURE WHICH GIVES HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. DID NUDGE WINDS
UP ABOUT 3-5KTS ACROSS THE AREA AND IF THE GFS VERIFIES WOULD NEED
TO BE NUDGED UP MORE.

VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WENT WITH
EXTENDED PROCEDURE FOR NOW AS TIMING DIFFERENCES LEND TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST) WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RETURN TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL AND ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 20KTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024