Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 252208
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
THE PRESENT TIME AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PASSES THROUGH. WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING IN SPEED AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. ALOFT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. A FEW
IMPULSES ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
CHANGE...LEADING TO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS AREA-WIDE SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...THE FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. A LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD SWING THROUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FINALLY...A WARM FRONT/DRYLINE TAKES
SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...MIGRATING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATE LIFT KICK
NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURLINGTON COLORADO
TO GOVE KANSAS LINE. HOWEVER...MOST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG/NORTH
OF THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

THE OTHER WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT/CALM WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE THAT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. POOR VISIBILITY...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE...IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.

FOR TOMORROW...EYES SHIFT TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE...NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. NORTH OF THE FRONT...CONDITIONS MAY BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS OF THE
CURRENT TIME...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY KANSAS...AND AN ENHANCED RISK
THAT CLIPS RED WILLOW AND NORTON COUNTIES. THE MOST PROBLEMATIC
ASPECTS OF THIS FORECAST ARE: 1. THE LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT/DRYLINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, 2. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER COLORADO...WHICH MAY AID IN HOLDING THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, AND 3. ANY IMPACT ON CAP
STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY FROM STRATUS/FOG IN THE MORNING. BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST ELEMENTS...EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
HIGHWAY 36 (ANTICIPATED WARM FRONT/DRYLINE LOCATION AS OF NOON
CDT)...SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A
DRY LINE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS SPREADING NORTHEAST.
OVERALL...AM CONCERNED THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT HOW QUICKLY THEY REACH MATURITY MAY ALSO BE
PROBLEMATIC. THE THREAT STILL EXISTS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BUT...UNFORTUNATELY...SEVERAL ELEMENTS OF THIS FORECAST NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO REACH
MATURITY PRIOR TO EXITING THE REGION...THEN ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES AS
TUESDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS ARE PINPOINTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION VIRTUALLY
EVERY PERIOD. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ROTATES THROUGH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

AS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING IN PLACE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVES
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER TO LIFT OUT
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE AREAS OF EVENTUAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE TENDED TO BROADBRUSH THE SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND RESULTING
QPF FROM WHAT WAS INITIALLY DEPICTED IN THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION.

WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES END UP BEING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RICH
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS FIRST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...
EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL INCLUDE
KGLD. STRATUS THEN SPREADS NORTHEAST AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THIS IS WHEN STRATUS/FOG WILL IMPACT KMCK. DRY AIR
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS LIFTING QUICKLY AT
KGLD. FOG/STRATUS MAY PERSIST AT KMCK THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
DISTURBANCES AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



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