Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171744
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1144 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Just completed an update. Rainfall has ended across the area.
Shortwave trough has moved east with satellite and upper air
analysis showing a much drier air mass with subsidence. The next
shortwave trough does not arrive until later this afternoon into
early this evening. So removed rainfall for the rest of the day.

With the exception of the far southern portion of the area, cloud
cover has decreased to less than what was depicted. So reduced
cloud cover most of the area and raised it in the south where
stratus looks like it could hang on most of the day. The Rap was
doing very well with the low level cloud cover, precipitation and
current temperatures.

So went ahead and adjusted based on the latest trends and Rap
depiction. Temperatures may not get out of the 50s in the
southwest and should get in the lower 70s in the northeast. Also
adjusted hourly dewpoint grids and the latest winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The initial short term forecast concern are the storms lingering
over the forecast area this morning. Later today and overnight the
concern shifts to the redevelopment of storms across the region
that may become marginally severe. Beyond tonight, the challenge
will be how much temperatures will warm Monday and Tuesday ahead
of the next cold front expected to move across the area Tuesday
evening.

An area of isolated to scattered elevated light showers and
thunderstorms developed from northeast Colorado to west central
Kansas overnight and continue early this morning. These storms
developed ahead of a weak mid level short wave that will continue
to lift east-northeastward out of the region ahead of the next
stronger short wave trough moving east of the Rockies and across
the central High Plains region overnight tonight.

Surface high pressure moves out of the High Plains today, across
the plains states, and towards the Great Lakes region overnight.
The frontal boundary that pushed into the southern plains with the
western extent of the cooler airmass pushed up against the Front
Range will move out across the forecast area this evening. This
will produce a veering near surface flow that is expected to bring
additional moisture into the region as the upper short wave
trough aloft moves across the region. Expect thunderstorms to
develop over the higher terrain during the early afternoon and
then move across the Central High Plains during the evening and
overnight hours before exiting the forecast area during the early
morning hours on Monday. Some of the storms may be marginally
severe mainly during the evening with hail sizes approaching one
inch.

On Monday the upper flow over the forecast area become more zonal
as the exiting short wave trough moves further to the east and a
low pressure system begins moving into the Pacific Northwest.
This system continues across the northern Great Basin and into the
Northern Rockies Monday night and Tuesday with the upper low over
the forecast area becoming slightly more southwesterly with the
leading short wave trough rotating around the low center expected
to move east of the Central Rockies and over the northern and
central high plains by Tuesday evening. During this time a surface
trough deepens along the Front Range with warmer and generally
dryer conditions expected as the surface trough moves east across
the forecast area by late Tuesday in unison with the upper trough
with cooler higher pressure expected to move in behind the
trough/front overnight Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

We will see a pattern shift continue into the extended period as
high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS and an amplified trough
takes shape in the west. All of the global models develop this
trough, each with slightly different timing and amplitude. Forecast
is biased slightly toward the ECMWF.

Wednesday and Thursday: CWA will be situated between the eastern
ridge and the developing western trough with west to southwest flow
aloft. Look for dry conditions both days with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s on Wednesday and upper 80s on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday: Upper flow becomes southerly as the trough
deepens with a nearly stationary axis extending down from western
Montana through the four corners region. Heights will begin to fall
late Friday and into Saturday with a theta-e boundary developing
across the western portions of the CWA in association with a cold
front. This will give us a chance of showers and thunderstorms that
will encompass the region both days. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible mainly on Friday along and east of the boundary. Highs on
Friday will climb into the middle 80s with middle 70s expected on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

For KGLD and KMCK...KGLD had some sprinkles/virga at the issuance
time of this TAF. Not expected to last long or have any impacts.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight into the morning
hours across the area. Included some VCTS for both terminals. Some
gusty winds and reduced visibilities are possible in the stronger
storms. May see some lowered visibilities and lowered ceilings
near sunrise due to fog/stratus. Current TAF does not contain any
IFR conditions at either terminal due to lack of model support,
but will monitored by future shifts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SME



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