Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1042 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 418 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Small upper level short wave troughs along with pockets of low dew
point depressions have led to isolated showers developing over
part of the forecast area. Latest radar imagery shows the main
area of precipitation still west of the forecast area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing
windy conditions and a good chance for light rain and light snow.
Precipitation will spread west to east beginning by mid evening
and continue through the overnight hours, ending by 12z. It will
be mainly rain through 06z, then change to a rain/snow mix or all
snow on the backside of the precipitation shield after 06z.
However, due to warm ground conditions and light precipitation
rates, no accumulation is expected. Windy conditions will more or
less follow the same time line. There is the potential for the
precipitation to mix down wind gusts of 45-50kts during the
overnight hours with a wind max behind the upper trough axis.

Saturday will clear out early, but continue to be breezy.
High temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Saturday night through
Sunday morning will be the coldest time period associated with
this airmass. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures
to drop into the teens and 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Ridge over the Baja region will slowly build northward over the
weekend, then amplify across the Rockies next week. Local area
will see a couple of weak shortwave troughs come over the ridge,
one Sunday night and another Tuesday, but neither will have enough
moisture to work with for precipitation. Temperatures will cool
down slightly behind the second system on Tuesday. As the ridge
amplifies Wednesday through Friday, shortwaves will be shunted
eastward, so dry pattern will continue. First look at the late
week Thanksgiving holiday shows dry conditions and temperatures in
the 60s under the influence of the ridge.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1037 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Band of rainfall is
slowly marching east, and will continue to do so through the rest
of the night. Have yet to see any MVFR visibility from the
rainfall. Am skeptical any snow will actually form due to the
precipitation ending by the time the temperature is cold enough to
support snowfall. The lowering cloud deck will be what impacts
flight conditions tonight. Don`t have too high a confidence when
the specific time for category change will be so have tempo groups
when the change will be most likely to occur. The strongest wind
gusts will be between now and 12z, mainly for KGLD.




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