Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
111 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Upper ridge axis will cross the local area tonight resulting in
dry conditions. A few short term models showing isolated
thunderstorm development this afternoon in the deeply mixed hot
and dry air mass. There has been cu development in the last hour
but given lack of any kind of upper forcing and the only surface
boundary west of the area do not think any precipitation will
develop. Clouds will dissipate after sunset with loss of surface
heating but with winds forecast to stay breezy from the south
through the night temperatures will struggle to fall below the
lower to middle 60s. Upper ridge will move east on Monday with
southwesterly flow by the afternoon. This will open the door for
any shortwave trough climbing the ridge...with one identified in
the models moving into southeast Colorado. Timing would keep chances
for any associated precipitation until after 00z. Otherwise
temperatures will be similar to today with breezy to windy south
winds during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Cooler and wetter conditions will prevail on Wednesday in the wake
of a cold front that will push across the region Tuesday night. PoPs
will be elevated through the early to middle afternoon hours before
the system clears the area. A mostly dry day will be in store on
Thursday with a few late day thunderstorms working into the far west
and northwest portions of the CWA in advance of the next H5 trough.
PoPs increase through the nighttime hours Thursday into Friday as
the trough digs in across the central High Plains. There is a bit of
disagreement between the global models with the GFS outlining a
stronger and faster system compared to the ECMWF which develops the
system more slowly. Both solutions agree that the system will exit
the region as we head through Saturday with PoPs diminishing from
west to east through the day.

Temperatures will be cooler than average Wednesday through Friday
with daytime highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees and lows in the
lower to middle 50s. A rebound into the lower to middle 80s is
expected Saturday with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period.
Southerly surface winds will be gusty, especially in the
afternoon, with pressure gradient between return flow around a
departing high pressure system and trough of low pressure in
eastern Colorado.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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