Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241934
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WILL
AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
SLIGHTLY EAST TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH AND
SUBSIDENCE.  POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL.  THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
COUPLE OF STORMS NEAR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. PLAN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THAT AREA.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH
WIND.  READINGS SHOULD COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

THE H5 RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ALTHOUGH NEITHER CAN AGREE UPON POP AND QPF. BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
OR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. I WENT WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS WHERE 30 TO 40
PERCENT SEEMS MORE LIKELY. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND CLEAR MUCH OF THE CWA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH AND FORCING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRATUS OR FOG
TONIGHT SINCE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW 90 PERCENT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS


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