Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221745
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOT OF SUN...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS HELPING TEMPERATURES
TO START CLIMBING QUICKLY TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAKING THE
WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE AREA AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PLAN TO UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THE AREA OF FOG MOVING
TO THE EAST. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE INCREASED AS WELL. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FURTHER ISSUES THIS MORNING WITH FOG OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES
FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

AREAS OF FOG IN THE EASTERN FA SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING.  PLAN TO CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
EXPIRATION.

DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECT THE FA FROM 06Z TO
18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS GENERALLY AROUND 700MB
BUT SOME POINTS ARE BELOW 700MB. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
ISOLATED AREAS WHICH MAY ACTUALLY MEASURE SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT AS CLOSE TO THE SURFACE.

SURFACE WINDS GET WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH.  HOWEVER, WINDS ARE BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.  THE COLDER
AIR THAT MOVES INTO THE FA WILL PRODUCE COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MIN
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 30S. MIN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL COOL TO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLES REGARDING PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITION EASTWARD
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS GENERALLY AGREEMENT THAT NW FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY...GFS/GEM/GEFS MEAN ARE QUICKER TO
DEAMPLIFY THE FLOW AS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY
MORE WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW BY THURSDAY. 12Z/00Z ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND KEEPS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE OVERALL.

REGARDING PRECIP...MOST MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED ECMWF WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE. GFS/GEM/GEFS HOLD THIS
STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND OUTSIDE OUR AREA OF CONCERN. EVEN
ECMWF SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. NON MEASURABLE PRECIP MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY IF
THAT PATTERN WERE TO VERIFY. I KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING PERSISTENCE.

REGARDING TEMPS...00Z ECMWF IS COLDER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH IN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORS WAA. BY THURSDAY ECMWF/GFS START TO COME
INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER ALIGNMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE
PATTERN AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN JET STREAM OVER CANADA.
GFS/GEM SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH WITH THIS
UPPER LOW...AND KEEPS THE H3 JET FURTHER NORTH...MAINTAINING LEE
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA OVER OUR
CWA. WITH SUCH A LARGE SPREAD...I STUCK WITH BLEND...WHICH FAVORS
PERSISTENCE. CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR SEASONAL TEMPS TUESDAY
(UPPER 40S/NEAR 50...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY (50S)...WITH
COOLING TREND TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES THURSDAY-FRIDAY (BIGGER
TEMP GRADIENT ON THURSDAY).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. AT THAT TIME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG BUT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BULLER



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