Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171112
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Main focus continues to be on very warm temperatures and potential
for critical fire weather conditions Saturday and Sunday.

Upper level pattern will transition from zonal cross mountain flow
today to ridging Saturday and Sunday. The ridge begins to breach
down Sunday with SW flow and a stronger lee trough developing ahead
of another shortwave trough and weak cold front pass through our
region Sunday night. Do to a very dry air mass in place and
unfavorable track the most we would probably see is a few pockets of
virga or sprinkles Sunday night.

Despite a cooler air mass, we should still see temps across the CWA
today as temps aloft are still hovering around 12-16C at H85. Model
consensus supports near 70F temps for locations in our south and
east, but I an concerned that pockets of opaque cirrus may limit
daytime heating a bit more. Saturday and Sunday rising heights and
stronger WAA support increased temperatures. We will see highs at
least in the mid to upper 70s Saturday, and current trends and bias
corrections support highs around 80F in our west. As has been the
trend it appears parts of our CWA are in line for near record or
record highs Sunday. Bias corrections based on previous warm ups and
temps aloft this past Thursday would support some locations in the
lower 90s Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

For the extended period...chances for precipitation will remain in
the forecast going into next week. By Monday with zonal flow over
the region...a shortwave and associated frontal boundary will move
thru the Central Plains...traversing across northern portions of
the CWA based on the latest runs of GFS/ECMWF.

Strong upper level ridging in place south of the passing
shortwave...resulting in limited qpf potential with the focus over
northern zones Monday night and then far eastern zones going into
Tuesday as this system dives se towards the southern Mississippi
Valley. Based on model temps for the timeframe of passage...looking
for light rw to be main p-type w/ the possibility of it mixing
with/changing to a few -sw towards Tuesday morning. No accum is
expected.

As with yesterday`s models runs at this time...the main wx focus
will shift to Wednesday night to Thursday night timeframe. Upper
trough digging south along the Pacific coast will move into the
Rockies by Wednesday then out into the Plains Wednesday night to
Thursday night before exiting the region. The GFS/ECMWF were in
better agreement yesterday versus today with position/timing of the
low/trough to affect the area. Latest run of the ECMWF pushes the
system a bit further north of the CWA as it enters the Plains
region...where the GFS continues the track over Kansas. The lack of
consistency with this system will make it hard to nail down timing
of potential trw that may develop based on some instability w/
passage...as well as amount of qpf based on track and dry air that
wraps into the system. The northern ECMWF track will shunt more qpf
north of the Tri State region. So at this time...best chances for
light rw(based on expected temps)...will occur Thursday into early
Thursday evening. H5/H7 ridging reasserts itself behind the low as
it moves eastward and will aid in drying CWA out going into Friday
morning. Plan on leaving out mention of thunder at this time...as
well as -sw as CWA will see no appreciable CAA on the back side of
this system as it exits the region.

For highs...the area will see mainly 60s w/ some 50s briefly on
Tuesday. Looking for overnight lows to range mainly in the
30s...all above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 512 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK terminals. Prevailing winds will remain below 12kt through
the TAF period at both terminals as surface high pressure moves
out of the Northern Plains across Nebraska and Kansas. Winds will
shift from a westerly direction to northeast direction by the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Saturday: While windy conditions are likely for much of our CWA
Saturday, low level southerly gradient acts to advect higher Tds
into our CWA keeping RH values above 20% for much of our CWA
despite temperatures near 80F. The exception is our far west
where Tds begin to decrease near developing dry line/surface
trough axis. The problem is the gradient weakens where Tds
decrease and speed max transitions eastward, resulting in a very
narrow window for RH/wind crossover. Confidence is not high enough
at this point for watch issuance for our eastern Colorado
counties, but we will need to monitor.

Sunday: The record temps and much lower Tds should result in RH
values around or lower than 15% across our CWA. Surface trough
shifts east over the CO/KS state line and winds through the BL
appear to be too light for RFW criteria. If we mix high enough it
is possible we could see criteria met, but confidence isn`t
there at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Daily high temperature records may be tied or broken across the
tri-state region Sunday.

Current Daily Records Sunday March 19:

Goodland.....90F in 1907
McCook.......87F in 2004
Burlington...93F in 1921
Hill City....89F in 1921
Colby........90F in 1921
Tribune......83F in 1972
Yuma.........79F in 2007

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR



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