Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 062050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
150 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Shallow based convection had developed due to surface heating and
steep low level lapse rates. Due to dry lower layers, only expect
this to be flurries until the air mass stabilizes. North to
northwest winds will decrease to 15 to 25 mph during the evening
and about 10 mph less after midnight. Went with a blend for the
overnight temperatures.

For Thursday, northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Winds are lower due to not as good of mixing.
Left front quadrant of a northern upper jet along with some mid
level forcing will begin to affect the area during the middle and
late afternoon hours. Lapse rates are poor but considering the
strength of the lift, have inserted a slight chance of light snow
or flurries with little to no accumulation expected. Combination
of cold air advection and increasing cloud cover will only allow
high temperatures to climb into the lower and middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Dry weather is forecast throughout the extended period with north to
northwest flow aloft prevailing. Temperatures appear to stay above
normal for this time of year.

At the start of the period, an upper trough dominates the eastern
half of the CONUS with high amplified ridging building into the
west. This ridge slowly spreads eastward over the weekend and raises
temperatures. Attention turns to fire weather concerns on Saturday
for locations along and west of the Colorado border. In this portion
of the region, relative humidity values are forecast in the 15 to 20
percent range with winds gusting up to 30 mph. Will continue to
monitor this in the coming days. Relative humidity values remain low
on Sunday, but the advancement of the upper trough allows the
pressure gradient to relax and winds are anticipated to be lighter.
A disturbance pushes across the High Plains on Monday, regressing
the ridge towards the west coast, and cooler air drops into the
region early next week.

Highs climb from the 50s on Saturday to the upper 50s/low 60s on
Sunday. Temperatures drop mainly into the low 50s for Monday and
Tuesday. Low temperatures remain in the 20s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1011 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. The main concern
is the strong gusty winds through this evening and again late
tomorrow morning. For Kgld, until sunset north winds near 28 knots
with gusts around 39 knots are expected. At sunset those winds
decrease to near 17 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. From 06z
to 16z no gusts are expected with northwest winds near 10 knots.
At 16z the winds increase to around 15 knots with gusts to near 23

For Kmck, through 04z northwest winds of 19 to 22 knots with gusts
into the 27 to 32 knot range are expected. At 04z the gusts stop
with north to northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots expected through
the end of period.




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