Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200500
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FOLLOWING AREA OF H7-H5 WAA FAIRLY
CLOSELY AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO WINDS
ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY/WAA DIMINISHING. THINK THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE AND HAVE TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. SATURATED LOW
LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND WITH EASTERLY NEAR SFC PROFILE
PERSISTING SOME DRIZZLE/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY AS
FAR NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SEEING THE REMNANTS OF THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT BROUGHT A RANGE OF 0.50" TO 1.50" TO MANY
LOCALES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED NEAR 2.00". THE AREA IS STILL SEEING A
STEADY/STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN STEADY 15-25 MPH CONDITIONS WITH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GUSTS TOPPING OUT NEAR 40 MPH AS RAIN
TAPERED OFF.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...LOOKING FOR ANY MAJOR RAINFALL TO HAVE ENDED AS
UPPER LOW BEGINS TREKS EASTWARD OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH WINDS
ABATING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW AND
EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. ALSO HAVE MENTION OF AREAS FOG FOR
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM EXITING LOW WILL GIVE AREA
MORNING -RW/-DZ ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE ENDING...
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER REGION. EASTERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER REGION AS RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD...SO PLAN ON
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS DESPITE PRECIP WANING.

850 MB TEMPS 0-3C ON LATEST GFS/NAM WILL ALLOW FOR DROP IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME NEAR 40F ALONG FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND FROM THE
COOLER HIGHS TODAY. 850 TEMPS REACH +6 TO +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY COULD INHIBIT MAJOR HEATING...BUT STAYED
CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE GIVING MAINLY MID 50S FOR AREA...WITH SOME
COOLER SPOTS NEAR 50F IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SHORTWAVE 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. GFS DEVELOPS OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
OVER COLORADO...BUT THEY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING EAST OVER
THE PLAINS GIVEN SUBSIDENCE. THE NORMALLY AGGRESSIVE NAM LIMITS
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST...AND WILL ACCEPT THAT SOLUTION.

SURFACE WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CALIFORNIA LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH ASCENT FROM CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TO MENTION
THUNDER.

AFTER MORNING SHOWERS...EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CAPES WILL NOT BE OVERLY HIGH...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES
SHOULD REACH AROUND 500 J/KG PER GFS PROGS. MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL
INCREASE. SO EXPECT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.

BY SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW WILL TURN THE CORNER AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...AND THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AFTER 18Z. EXPECT
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...MAY BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRY SLOT
MOVING EAST ACROSS COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THE LOW TO BE MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY...THOUGH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS WILL AGAIN BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CIGS
TONIGHT AS STRATUS DECK AND FOG DEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
WITH ATMOSPHERE ALL READY SATURATED...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO
CREATE REDUCED CONDITIONS. HAVE SEEN SOME VARIATION IN CIG HEIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS PASSING...BUT THINK THINGS WILL STABILIZE
IN THE 200-800 FEET RANGE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM


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