Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
528 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Across the tri state region this morning...the area is seeing mixed
sky conditions with mainly clear skies over the western have of the
region...while eastern zones are seeing mcldy/cldy conditions.
Temperature gradient across the region is directly correlated with
the areal extent of the low/mid clouds. Clear areas are seeing temps
in the 40s...while those locales seeing cloud cover have temps in
the lower to mid 50s. Satellite trend is for gradual clearing from
the do expect more locales to start seeing a drop into the
40s over next couple hours.

For the 72-hour period starting Today and continuing on through
Saturday night...a combination of a building H5 ridge over the
region along with the passage of a few shortwaves...will give the
region an increasing temperature trend to above normal conditions
along with the chance for -rw/-trw for mainly eastern portions of
the cwa.

Lingering cloud cover over eastern zones today...otherwise a decent
day on tap for the region. By late tonight into Friday morning...
abundant low level moisture will persist over the eastern half of
the cwa will bringing in patchy drizzle and fog potential. The same
will occur Friday night on into Saturday morning. By Saturday
afternoon into the evening hours...chances for trw increase as a
shortwave works over the upper ridge. Focus will occur mainly for
eastern areas. Model parameters do suggest some storms could be
strong to severe in nature mainly for the late afternoon/early
evening hours Saturday.

Building h5 ridge over the region...combined with a strong SSW
surface gradient will bring in high temps that will be mainly in the
60s...warmest west where clear skies will prevail. Some locales
there could reach near 70F. By Friday...mid 70s to near 80F...
warmest west...and for Saturday highs will increase further as H5
ridge axis works over the plains region giving an 80-85F range.
Upward trend also will occur for overnight lows starting in the mid
to upper 40s tonight transitioning to the mid to upper 50s by
Saturday night.

With a lee-side trough to our west and strong surface ridge to the
east...the entire cwa will see a strong surface gradient keeping a
persistent 10-20 mph with gusts nearing 30 mph late Friday and
Saturday afternoons.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Unsettled weather is anticipated during the extended period, with
shower and thunderstorm chances continuing into next week along with
warmer temperatures.

On Sunday, upper level ridging progresses east of the region
as an upper trough advances over the western CONUS and southwesterly
flow develops aloft. In the meantime at the surface, strong
southerly flow improves low level moisture while a cold front moves
towards the High Plains from the northwest. A dryline is expected to
develop along the Colorado/Kansas border, with dewpoints up to the
60-65 degree range in the eastern portion of the area.
Although the exact position of the dryline is uncertain, guidance
suggests severe weather is possible (particularly east of the
Colorado border), so severe thunderstorm mention was kept in the
forecast for Sunday afternoon and evening. Increasing shear and
SBCAPE values still generally in the 1500-2500 J/kg range combined
with the passage of a shortwave should be enough to initiate
convection along the dryline with supercells possible. The
aforementioned cold front appears to pass through the region
Sunday night before stalling in western Kansas.

The upper trough over the western CONUS continues to weaken early
next week. It looks like a brief period of dry weather is in store
for Monday after the action on Sunday, but that does not last long.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast Monday night
through Wednesday as the stalled front now intersecting the dryline
lingers over Kansas through midweek. Severe potential will be
monitored in the upcoming days as boundary positioning is resolved.

Warmer highs in the low to mid 80s are currently forecast on Sunday.
Expect a slight drop in temperatures (mainly into the 70s) on Monday
after the cold front passes through, followed by highs in the mid
70s to low 80s. Low temperatures will generally be in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Both taf sites will see VFR conditions thru 05z-06z Friday...then
transition down to MVFR by 08z Friday...this will result from
-dz/fog developing lowering visibility to 5-6sm w/ occasional
2sm...and ceilings going from bkn015 to ovc002. Winds SSE 10-15kts
w/ gusts 20-30kts for the afternoon and evening hours.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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