Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 253 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Short term forecast concerns are the hot temperatures expected
each day through Friday along with the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms Thursday night and scattered thunderstorms Friday

High pressure remains aloft over the southern and high plains and
plains states with a short wave trough embedded in the flow
around the high moving from northeast Colorado into Nebraska
Thursday and Thursday night. The high pressure area moves off to
the east and weakens and zonal flow returns across the Rockies and
high plains region. It appears a short wave trough moving out of
New Mexico comes into phase with a low pressure center riding the
zonal flow east of the Rockies along the U.S./Canadian border and
moves into the forecast area late Friday. As the upper high moves
east and the flow becomes more zonal, a lee side trough deepens
over the high plains and moves east across the forecast area by
Friday night.

Until the lee trough can push east across the forecast area,
southerly near surface flow will keep warm air advecting into the
area. This should keep hot temperatures in place through Friday
with highs ranging from the 90s over Colorado to 100-105 across
northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Dewpoints start out in
the 60s and lower 70s this morning with some drying expected this
afternoon with dewpoints dropping into the 50s by late afternoon.
However, models may be too aggressive in developing the gusty
southwest winds and drying the airmass leading to lower dewpoints
and lower apparent temperatures. As a result, ambient temperatures
and heat index values today could still be in the 101-104 range or
higher. Have kept the current heat advisory for today intact to
account for this.

Although additional drying is possible on Thursday and Friday as
the surface lee trough strengthens and increases the southwest
winds, but ambient temperatures in the 100-104 degree range are
still possible each afternoon through the end of the work week,
which may require a possible heat advisory each day through the
end of the week given the similar temperature conditions each day.

The possibility of thunderstorms is low as they move around the
high pressure area and remain mostly north through Thursday. The
chances of thunderstorms increase by late Friday as the high
pressure area aloft moves east and weakens, and the zonal flow
brings a disturbance aloft across the region along with the
surface trough moving east by late Friday. Some stronger storms
could produce damaging winds and large hail late Friday afternoon
and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Saturday and Sunday: Nearly zonal pattern will be in place across
the central Plains with very weak upper flow out of the west to west
northwest. Weak high pressure will build across the western States
on Saturday, moving eastward as we head into Sunday. There will be
enough instability along a cold front to allow thunderstorms to
develop Saturday afternoon and evening, persisting into Sunday as
this front stalls and lingers in the region. High temperatures will
top out in the 90s on Saturday and the 80s on Sunday as the front
influences the area.

Monday and Tuesday: Remnant theta-e boundary will be in place,
serving as a focus for thunderstorm development as we head into the
day on Monday. A shortwave is expected to develop along the upstream
side of the eastward moving ridge, providing lift from southwest to
northeast across the CWA Monday afternoon and evening. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms with this shortwave with the
possibility of a few strong to severe storms mainly confined to the
western half of the CWA given the current guidance. A slightly more
active pattern will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday as we will be
on the upstream side of the ridge axis, allowing occasional
shortwaves to traverse the region and increase thunderstorm chances
across the area. Moisture levels will remain relatively high as
monsoonal flow is expected to continue.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

For Kgld, vfr conditions are expected through the period. Through
the rest the night the wind field will light and variable due to a
lot of outflow boundaries drifting across the area. During the
morning hours the winds are expected to shift to the south and
initially be around 10 knots. Near 18z, the south winds will
increase to near 17 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. Near sunset
those winds will lose their gustiness and remained sustained near
11 knots.

For Kmck, mvfr conditions due to fog are expected through the
early morning hours as a result of light winds and a moist low
level air mass. From 15z to the end of the period, vfr conditions
are expected. During the morning south winds will increase. Late
in the morning to the early afternoon those winds will increase to
near 15 knots with gusts to near 23 knots. Near sunset those winds
will lose their gustiness and remained sustained near 10 knots.


KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ002>004-015-016.

NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
     CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.



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