Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222122
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A LOT OF THINGS TO LOOK AT TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON SAW VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION. IT LOOKS QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN A STRONG FRONT
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONT AND
LIFT ALOFT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING...SOME JET HELP...AND WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY.

THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW BUT THEY ARE NOT NEGATIVE. CONSIDERING
THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...AM THINKING THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER MILD THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH 30S EXPECTED AND MOST LOCATIONS NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING. SO AM KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION AS A MIX. EXPECT THE
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. AIR MASS DRIES OUT AND SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BY
LATE MORNING.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE WINDS. RATHER STRONG GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. ON AVERAGE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THERE IS 40 TO
45 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS DO HAVE 50
KNOTS AT VARIOUS TIMES. AM CONCERNED WITH THIS FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS. ONE WHEN HE LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTS...THAT COULD MIX
DOWN HIGHER WINDS THAN WHAT I HAVE IN THERE. AND ALSO WHEN THE
SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN THE LAPSE RATES WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGHER
WINDS TO COME TO THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SAYING NO.

AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
COOLING FOR TOMORROW AND WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLES REGARDING PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITION EASTWARD
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS GENERALLY AGREEMENT THAT NW FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY...GFS/GEM/GEMS MEAN ARE QUICKER TO
DEAMPLIFY THE FLOW AS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY
MORE WESTERLY/CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW BY THURSDAY. 12Z/00Z ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND KEEPS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE OVERALL.

REGARDING PRECIP...MOST MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED ECMWF WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE. GFS/GEM/GEMS HOLD THIS
STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND OUTSIDE OUR AREA OF CONCERN. EVEN
ECMWF SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. NON MEASURABLE PRECIP MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY IF
THAT PATTERN WERE TO VERIFY. I KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING PERSISTENCE.

REGARDING TEMPS...00Z ECMWF IS COLDER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH IN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORS WAA. BY THURSDAY ECMWF/GFS START TO COME
INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER ALIGNMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE
PATTERN AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN JET STREAM OVER CANADA.
GFS/GEM SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH WITH THIS
UPPER LOW...AND KEEPS THE H3 JET FURTHER NORTH...MAINTAINING LEE
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA OVER OUR
CWA. WITH SUCH A LARGE SPREAD...I STUCK WITH BLEND...WHICH FAVORS
PERSISTENCE. CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR SEASONAL TEMPS TUESDAY
(UPPER 40S/NEAR 50...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY (50S)...WITH
COOLING TREND TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES THURSDAY-FRIDAY (BIGGER
TEMP GRADIENT ON THURSDAY).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. AT THAT TIME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG BUT
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-013-027.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BULLER



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