Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 171922
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PERSISTENT RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH H7 TROUGH ON LATEST RAP JUST
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR SW CWA.

HRRR HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON CURRENT COVERAGE AND INDICATED
ACTIVITY MAINLY REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A TRIBUNE TO FLAGLER
LINE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH ML CAPE IN THE 1500-
3000 J/KG RANGE. CIN IS STILL HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ML CINH SHOULD WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION WITH DRY INVERTED V TYPE
MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASE AND
GOOD BL MOISTURE IN PLACE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THERE IS AT LEAST AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE CAPE AND EXPECTATION OF EFFECTIVE SHEER
INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION. PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURST
POTENTIAL...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1800
J/KG. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS ALOFT TONIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...WITH ELEVATED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND WASHED OUT
FRONT/SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SOUTH THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT  WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WEAK VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH COULD ALSO HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. PRECIP SIGNAL IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IS LIFTS
NORTH...WITH BETTER COVERAGE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY...THOUGH
THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-MID
90S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT BUT THEY ARE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. IN GENERAL THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN OF HAVING A MEAN WESTERN
TROUGH AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN WE ARE NOW IN.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN MORE
AGREEMENT...WITH THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES. THE
GFS IS FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF. NO MATTER WHAT
THOUGH THIS PATTERN LEAVES THE AREA OPEN TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF
IS A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE GFS.

SO DO LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EVERY DAY UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY DRY OUT.
HOWEVER COULD SEE SATURDAY HAVING SOME LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW SINCE IT IS A WEEK OUT PLUS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH DRYING TO SUPPORT THE DRY FORECAST. ALSO
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED HOT AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE INIT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE COOL
DOWN TOWARD THE END THOUGH. SO OVERALL PLAN ON LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE AND WITHIN VICINITY OF
KGLD...EVENTUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS KGLD FOR NOW...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE AT KMCK...SO I LIMITED TEMPO -TSRA TEMPO TO KGLD.
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ON EASTERN
EDGE OF SURFACE TROUGH AT KMCK WITH LIGHTER WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
6KT AT KMCK. WILL WILL DIMINISH AT KMCK THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.