Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240036
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
636 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH THAT
HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COLORADO. LINE OF RW/TRW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. FLASH FLOOD WATCH DOES REMAIN IN EFFECT STILL. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY INDICATED BY RADAR OVER EASTERN COLORADO
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE FA. PLAN TO GO WITH
DEFINITE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH LIKELY AND CHANCE POPS.
THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AROUND 06Z SUNDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SKY SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE LOWER SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS LOWER AS WELL.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING DUE
TO ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING INTO THE WATCH AREA.

TORNADO WATCH 195 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES TIL
01Z.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER AND MID
70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF TRANSITIONING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL PEAK IN THE EVENING WITH INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND OMEGA PRIMARILY IN THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE EVENING. FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. INITIALLY THERE IS
A WINDOW IN THE EVENING WHERE NAM SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY/SHEER
AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLEARING EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER SIMILAR TO
TODAY.

MONDAY-SATURDAY...AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW BREAKS DOWN A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE CWA. PWATS AND
DEWPOINTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW WE
MAY NOT BENEFIT FROM QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE
FLUX DURING SOME PERIODS. WHILE FINER DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN
DOWN...GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY IN OVERLAPPING PRECIP
SIGNALS MOST PERIODS TO KEEP HIGHER POPS IN PLACE. VERY HIGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ADVERTISED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A QUESTION WOULD BE STRENGTH OF
CAP IN PLACE AND TIMING OF INITIATION. SHEER IS ALSO NOT AS ROBUST
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT WILL STILL BE THERE
CONSIDERING THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW LESS INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN PLACE (THOUGH SHOWERS MAY BE FAVORED WITH
SOME OF THESE SHORTWAVES).

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE CONTINUING TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON SKY COVER (AS IS USUALLY THE CASE) THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
WARMING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
70S/LOWER 80S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING BLOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT 00Z SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MVFR/IFR/LIFR MIX
AS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE THRU THE
REGION. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR/VFR. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC025 DOWN TO OVC003-007 WITH
VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 2-5SM. AFTER RAINFALL ENDS BY
05Z...EXPECTING DRIZZLE AND FOG TO BE MAIN WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS (SSE FOR KGLD/ESE FOR KMCK) 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
THRU 04Z SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ001.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN



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