Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160530
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WINDY CONDITIONS PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS PICKED UP IN THE STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST TODAY.  WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 AND GUSTS UP TO
40...IT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO BEGIN MOVING THE WET SNOW RECEIVED SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNT REPORTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA WAS 8" IN YUMA COUNTY. EAST-
WEST ROAD CLOSURES AND ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH DECREASES IN VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS WITH
BLOWING SNOW.  ROAD CREWS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE ROADS THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS PICKED UP...BUT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
KEEP ROADS CLEAR MID-DAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW PRODUCING LOCALIZED SNOW PACKED AND SLICK ROADS.  IN
ADDITION TO THE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE LIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF TO
THE EAST...SO GUSTY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME CLEARING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR ON
TUESDAY AS THEY WERE TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS BY THE SNOWFALL RECEIVED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST RUN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY...A RETURN TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN
YESTERDAYS FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATED.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION FREE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. BAND OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PASSES
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF CLEARING THEN
DENSE CLOUDS MOVING IN AGAIN. SOUTH WINDS RETURN...BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING AND ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT INCREASING...EXPECTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WHAT MAKES THIS EVENT INTERESTING IS THAT SATURATION
IN THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE IS NOT EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? THIS MEANS
THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY FALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE HIGHLIGHTS A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT DEVELOPING INSTEAD OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BRING A
LARGER IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH ICE DEVELOPING ON THE ROADWAYS DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. FOR NOW...PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE...ICE
GROWTH ZONE SATURATION SEEMS MORE LIKELY SO HAVE MAINTAINED A LIGHT
SNOW MENTION. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT SO
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL PRODUCE A MINIMAL IMPACT.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR. EXPECTING A WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE A BIG
QUESTION MARK. ONE THING TO NOTE IS BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD BLAST MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMCK WHERE STRATUS HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. TIMING
THE DEPARTURE OF THE STATUS IS PROBLEMATIC. THE HRRR CLEARS IT OUT
AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST WHILE THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING
KEEPS THE STRATUS TILL AFTER 15Z. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE NAM
SINCE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW IT`S PERSISTENT TREND. OTHERWISE KGLD
WILL BE VFR TONIGHT WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST WIND TURNING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. KMCK WILL ALSO TURN VFR TUESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
EARLIER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS



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