Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 022016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA W/ JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE U50S TO L60S...WHICH ARE WELL OFF MORNING LOWS IN THE
U20S TO THE M30S. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR WNW
WINDS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION WILL MOVE THRU THE
CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY
GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER
OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES ONCE AGAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT MOVE THE LOW ALONG. RATHER...INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW
STALLS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH ANY EXTENDED FORECAST...
SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTS PINPOINTING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INDICATE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE AN ISSUE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC DAYS 4-7 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS A TORNADO THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS ONE ITEM THAT COULD BUST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A COLD FRONT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY ON THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT (IN
ADDITION TO THE DRYLINE). IF FRONT ADVANCEMENT IS FASTER...PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD MORE LIKELY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 08Z-1130Z TUESDAY...BKN050 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS BEFORE 03Z TUESDAY AND AFTER 1130Z TUESDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ MAINLY SCATTERED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 03Z-08Z TUESDAY...BKN035 WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6SM. WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z
TUESDAY...THEN NORTH 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN


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