Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290518
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS AND THE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT...LOWERED THE MINS ABOUT 3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO CONVECTION ARE QUITE THICK OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA SO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ON THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SMALL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BRINGING THE NEEDED LIFT TO START SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TWENTIES.  NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AROUND THE 650 TO 700 MB IN DEPICTED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED OR EVEN DEVELOP WITH A LACK
OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.

NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF VORTICITY POCKETS WITH QG
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AT THIS POINT AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HRRR/NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE EXTENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.  THEREFORE...JUST PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COLORADO.

WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION FORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD WRAP UP SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.  A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL PRESENTED ITSELF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRY AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND YET SURFACE MODEL OUTPUT WAS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION THERE IN THE FORECAST.  PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN...DESPITE A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
OCCUR. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN QUESTION...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL UTAH AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT FLATTEN THE AXIS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASE
IT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT PRESENT
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 3-5F WARMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-102 EAST OF
THE BORDER. BASED ON THE LAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES WE COULD HAVE EVEN
HOTTER READINGS TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT......GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN PROBABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND PER 850-500 MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG IT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IF NOT REMOVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...0-6KM
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
700MB TEMPERATURES (PER GFS) FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO 20C
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CAP ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH
LOW 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES READINGS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10F
WARMER/HOTTER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES READINGS MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER



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