Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 200900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AT 20Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A NORTON TO LEOTI LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 1000-1500
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 20-30KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES QUICKLY DROP OFF
BY 01Z...SO ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE WILL RAPIDLY SHRINK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH NONZERO
MUCAPE.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE AROUND ON SUNDAY...BUT HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION DUE TO INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MODELS SHOW CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN
THE EASTER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE BUT DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR WILL BE EVEN LOWER...LESS THAN 20KTS. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT. SO EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE
LINE...BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE.
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS POINT. QPF
WILL BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 RANGE IN THE EAST...WITH LESS THAN 0.10
IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.

CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.

FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.

PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECWMF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MCK AND GLD TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY OVER FOR THE NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MCK VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. BY 16Z SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-24Z AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AFTER 02Z SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM NOON MDT
(1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND PROBABLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.