Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170203
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
803 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

THE ZONAL FLOW TODAY BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVES UP INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

A VERY BENIGN/STAGNANT PATTER WILL BE IN PLACE...AS A LARGE SCALE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND WHICH MAY INCREASE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE WITH DEEP
DRY LAYER IN PLACE AND UNFAVORABLE STORM TRACK IN PLACE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS ADVERTISED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US AND BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST. PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKY...AND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE. EITHER SOLUTION IS FAVORING A WET/MILD PATTERN
OVER OUR CWA. A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES TO OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION AND GULF MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY STREAM NORTH
INTO OUR CWA. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS HOWEVER...SO I DIDNT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH ON
POPS YET. MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDED UP TO 40 POPS BY WED NIGHT AND
THIS IS REASONABLE AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY.

FOR KGLD LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 07KTS AROUND 07Z THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 17Z THEN EAST AT 06-07KTS BY 22Z. ONLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

FOR KMCK NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 08KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
06KTS BY 23Z. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99


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