Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231640

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1040 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1018 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Latest upper analysis shows the closed low moving northeast with a
ridge approaching from the west. Satellite imagery shows cumulus
clouds developing as temperatures continue to warm, replacing the
wave clouds that are indicative of a stable environment. At the
surface winds continue to increase as the low level jet over the
forecast area begins to mix down to the ground. Anticipate
northerly winds to increase from north to south, with the peak
wind gusts occurring during the first part of the afternoon. With
weak lift over the entire forecast area this afternoon and steep
temperature lapse rates in place, continue to foresee the
potential for isolated showers to develop.

This evening winds will rapidly decline and become light. Any
lingering showers will end as temperatures cool.  During the
overnight hours a surface high will move through from the west,
causing the north winds to turn to the west. The sky will also
clear from west to east ahead of the surface high as drier air
moves in behind the closed low headed toward the Great Lakes. With
favorable conditions for radiational cooling, am anticipating
lows falling into the mid 30s to around 40. Considered issuing a
frost advisory for the west half to third of the forecast area,
however surface to 850mb temperatures will be warming as the
surface high moves in from the west. In fact the low level
temperature field was cooler last night over Eastern Colorado and
lows only fell into the mid 30s. With this in mind am thinking the
current forecast lows look good. While frost will form, am
thinking it will be confined to low lying areas and not be a large
enough in extent to warrant an advisory. Plan on issuing a
graphic today highlighting the potential for frost to get the
word out.

Wednesday winds will be much lighter than today as the surface
high continues to move through ahead of an upper level ridge. A
warm front will move through the forecast area from the west. Due
to subsidence and dry air, am not expecting any storm development
as the front moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Active weather persists during the extended period, with
temperatures near to below normal.

At the start of the period, a closed low spins in southern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The corresponding trough extends to the
southwest of the low, leaving nearly zonal flow across the High
Plains. Multiple disturbances pass through the trough during the
extended as the low gradually moves across the US/Canadian border.

On Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances increase in the afternoon
and evening, spreading into Kansas from Colorado. Decent shear and
instability could support a few severe thunderstorms. Precipitation
chances continue on Saturday as the trough progresses from the
Rockies onto the Plains. Mainly dry conditions with an occasional
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, are forecast on Sunday
and Monday as the system pushes east. Guidance differs with the
track of this system, so will continue to monitor.

Temperatures decrease from the upper 60s/upper 70s on Friday to the
60s/low 70s on Saturday. Then highs slightly rebound and are back in
the 70s across the region by Monday. Low temperatures remain in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1018 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Main issue will be the
timing of the wind increase/decrease this afternoon. Am expecting
the peak gusts to be in the 18-21z timeframe. The winds should
decrease rapidly around 0z. Isolated showers are also expected to
develop this afternoon. Am not anticipating much of an areal
extent with them and difficult to define a particular location
most favorable for their development. Gusty winds may accompany
any showers. The showers will end around 0z as the heat of the day

Tonight winds will turn to the west as a surface high moves
through. During the morning winds will turn from the west to the
south as a warm front moves in from the west.




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