000
FXUS63 KGLD 180815
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTER OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION.  CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.  DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.  STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL