Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221505

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
905 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Issued at 905 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Update to forecast issued to adjusted temps based on trend from
regional obs in the past couple hours. Locales are heating up a
bit quicker than forecast with the CWA under full sunshine ahead
of approaching front. Western portions of the CWA are starting to
see a shift in winds from the west to more northwest...which is
in line for a shift to northerly by the afternoon. No other
changes at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Today-tonight...a cold front will move south across the area today
with many locations seeing high temperatures earlier than normal
with slowly falling temperatures for the rest of the day behind the
front. 850mb temperatures support readings in the mid 90s to around
102, hottest ahead of the front across the east and south. A weather
disturbance is expected to move into the area from the northwest and
should interact with the front to produce a slight chance to low
chance of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe late this
afternoon. May see a lull in precipitation early this evening before
chances increase after midnight as another batch of moisture moves
in from the northwest. Low temperatures should fall into the low to
mid 50s west, low 60s far east.

Friday-Friday night...may see some morning showers otherwise dry.
850mb temperatures drop about 19F to 29F across the area supporting
highs in the low 70s to near 80. Low temperatures in the low to mid

Saturday-Saturday night...could see some light rain showers through
the period as weather disturbances and increases in moisture move
across the area in fast northwest flow aloft. Afternoon temperatures
remain below normal with low to mid 70s. Low temperatures slightly
below normal with upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Northwest flow to start the period will gradually weaken as the
western ridge crosses the Rockies. The ridge will weaken by the
end of the period with a zonal flow across the CONUS.

There will be occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms
during the period associated with weak embedded shortwave troughs
in the flow aloft. Instability will be lacking at the start of the
period, but does gradually increase next week. However, with the
ridge building over the area forcing for convection will be a
problem. All in all, no day stands out as particularly favorable
for a severe weather threat and storm chances should remain
relatively low.

Temperatures will be below normal Sunday and Monday, near normal
Tuesday then above normal on Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Winds begin from
the southwest around 10kts but quickly become northerly gusting
near 25kts around 18z. Winds continue from the northeast gusting
30-35kts through the rest of the afternoon before decreasing below
12kts after 04z. May see thunderstorms move toward/over the
terminal from the west in the 23z-02z timeframe. Severe weather
possible with large hail and damaging outflow winds possible.
After 02z confidence not high enough to include precipitation

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A light
southwest wind at taf issuance is expected to become west near
10kts by 15 then northwest gusting 15-20kts by 17z. North winds
gusting near 30kts expected from 20z through the rest of the day
then fall below 12kts after 03z.




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