Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 242347
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ULTIMATELY
REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
SATURDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND FINALLY THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONGER IMPULSE DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW. UNTIL THEN...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A COLDFRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH THROUGH THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 10-12Z...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 14Z-18Z. BY 21Z...THE
GUSTINESS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART





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