Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1150 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over Southern Canada
extending south to the Northern Plains.  Within the northwest flow
over the Northern Plains were a couple subtle short wave troughs.
Under the southern short wave trough visible satellite shows a
developing line of cumulus clouds over Central Nebraska. At the
surface a weak cold front extends northwest to southeast over the
Northern Plains.

For the rest of the afternoon Red Willow, Norton and possibly
Hitchcock counties may have a chance for some isolated storms as a
short wave trough moves through. Most of any storm activity that
develops should be east of these counties.

Tonight the upper level short wave trough over North Dakota will
move south over the Tri-State Area along with the cold front.  There
will be enough lift and low dew point depressions above 700mb to
possibly generate some isolated showers as the front moves through,
mainly over the east half of the area.  Due to the cooler air mass
moving through, lows will be cooler than last night.

Monday morning there may be some isolated showers over the central
part of the area as lift increases over an axis of higher theta-e
values.  In the latter half of the afternoon thunderstorms will
begin to move in from the west as another short wave trough moves
southeast, with storm activity grazing the southwest quadrant of the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Shortwave ridging will move slowly east as several weak shortwaves
begin to traverse the central Rockies, moving into the central High
Plains on Wednesday. The H7 pattern is in decent agreement as the
global models all are relatively close; however, at the H5 level
and up, there are profound differences. The GFS is a bit more
consistent run to run thus I am leaning more toward a GFS
solution. Chance PoPs will prevail through the afternoon on
Wednesday with strong to severe thunderstorms being possible.
Thunderstorm activity will be less likely on Thursday as upper
support is lost; however, there is no consistent and reliable
model solution for Thursday as GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all
indicate sharply different solutions.

Friday brings another chance of thunderstorms to the CWA as a very
weak shortwave is expected to push through the area. Instability
will be relatively high with CAPE ranging from 2500 to 3500 J/Kg;
however shear is lacking with the GFS only indicating around 20
knots of 0-6 km shear. Severe thunderstorms are possible but will
likely be limited to pulse type multi-cell storms as supercell
development will be difficult given the lack of shear.

A very weak cold front will push across the region on Saturday with
showers and thunderstorms possible through the afternoon to early


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. KMCK may have a lone storm
move near the site between 21-0z. Otherwise most of the activity
should be east of the site. Another round of isolated storms may
start moving through around 6z along a weak cold front. Isolated
storms are possible across the east 2/3s of the forecast area.
KGLD may have another round of storms after that develop near the
site Monday morning. In all three instances the coverage will be
low enough that do not have enough confidence to place a mention
in the TAFs.




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