Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
157 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Issued at 603 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

After some collaboration with WFO DDC and recent trends, I
updated to lower maxes along our common border.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 406 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Main forecast issues will be ongoing precipitation event and how
cool to make temperatures, especially the low temperatures.
Satellite showing an amplified and slow moving pattern from the
Pacific into the western Atlantic. Analysis and satellite showing
deep moisture over the area and continuing to stream in from the
south. Slow moving upper low is currently along the Utah and Arizona
border. Hard to tell for sure with the rainfall/storms going on but
initial front looks draped over the southeast fringe the area with a
secondary surge of cooler air to our north.

At jet level...models were not doing well on the jet segment on the
front side of the western trough. They tended to not have it far
enough west. The Nam and Canadian were doing the best with this. At
mid levels...models were fairly close. Overall the Ukmet, Nam,
Canadian, and Ecmwf were doing the best.

Today/tonight...For hydro concerns through tomorrow night, refer to
the hydro section below. Right rear quadrant starts over the western
half of the area this morning and then moves little through the
middle of the day with it affecting the northwest half of the area.
The jet develops or moves back to the west in the afternoon. Also
mid level lift decreases some by late morning. So by late this
morning to early this afternoon there will be a brief lull in
precipitation/heavier precipitation until the next significant batch
comes in.

And as the models have shown the previous two nights, a right rear
quadrant or coupled jet structure affects the area through the
night. The mid level lift along with the upper level lift
increases through the night. So expect a gradual increase in pops
through the night. The precipitable water values start decreasing
through this period but will still be above normal through this
time, especially in the eastern half. That is where the moderate
to heavy rainfall will be confined.

Considering the ongoing clouds and rainfall along with a secondary
cool surge, lowered maxes for the day close to the best performing

Monday/Monday night...A right rear quadrant or coupled jet setup
continues to affect the area through the day as it moves slowly
toward the east. Also the mid level lift remains strong through at
least the middle of the day with some continued but slight drying of
the air mass. Felt that the blend pops I was given for the
morning were too low considering the amount of mid and upper level
present. So raised them a little. What is a little disturbing is
most numerical guidance is much higher than the blend and am
concerned that it may be ending the higher pops too early. At this
time am only anticipating light to occasional moderate rain.

During the evening the right rear quadrant moves little with it
affecting the entire area. During the overnight hours a rather
strong southern jet develops and puts the area in good lift from a
coupled jet. Air mass dries out more so model/wpc qpf is less. But
considering the lift the pops may need to be raised a little. Very
cool conditions remain for high temperatures.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Upper jet moves little during the day with
either a coupled jet setup or right rear quadrant remaining over the
southeast portion of the area. In fact a model or two even pulls the
jet back a little further to the west. Upper jet continues to not
move or move little during the night and remains over or just
southeast of the area.

There looks to be some lingering rainfall, according to the
blend, in the far south in the morning. At the very least the
above mentioned lift may keep clouds around with the worst case
scenario of lingering light rainfall over more of the area. Since
there appears we may some sun, temperatures should be a little

Of minor concern is the low temperatures for this night. Winds
become light. However models do keep some mid and high level cloud
cover around per the jet being in the area. The moist levels and
this cloud cover should keep the temperatures from dropping too
much. However, if there is less cloud cover, there is potential
that some locations could get into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Precipitation chances will continue during the beginning part of the
extended period as the low pressure system that has been impacting
the region through the weekend moves northeast out of the CWA. Rain
showers are only expected during this time (Monday night into early
Tuesday morning). Once that low moves out of the region the CWA is
expected to see a dry period through the majority of the remaining
extended period. This is due to zonal and northwest upper level flow
dominating the region and preventing moisture from moving up into
the area. One model is showing a more progressive pattern with
bringing precipitation to the region on Thursday but the other ones
are dry. So PoPs were decreased to accommodate the other models but
there are still slight chances in the forecast during that time.

Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s during the entire period.
With Tuesday seeing the coolest temperatures and Sunday seeing the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1046 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Conditions at GLD are expected to vary between IFR and MVFR into
tonight and then transition to LIFR due to low ceilings by 12Z
Monday morning as the probability of precipitation begins to

MCK is expected to remain mostly IFR with a possibility of MVFR
this afternoon. Conditions may intermittently become LIFR after
14Z as the probability of precipitation begins to decrease by mid
day Monday.




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