Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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084
FXUS63 KGLD 161013
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
313 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 124 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

Overview: Main concern remains with the winter storm impacting the
region this afternoon, tonight, and into Monday. Freezing rain this
afternoon will transition first to sleet, then to snow from west to
east this evening. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times. Recent
guidance has been reducing the snowfall totals with each iteration
due to the persistent eastward track of the low, which is now moving
into southwest Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The eastward jog
will cause the focus of snowfall to shift eastward. We still expect
a band of heavy snow to set up from south-southwest to north-
northeast tonight and Monday morning. Those locations within the
heavier band will generally see 3 to 5 inches of snow with the
potential of up to 7 inches in isolated locations. Due to the slower
movement of this system, light snow could linger into Monday
afternoon before moving off to the east and northeast.

Impacts: Power outages and downed trees/limbs are possible this
afternoon and early evening especially in areas where ice
accumulations approach or exceed one quarter of an inch. Winds have
remained relatively light today but are expected to increase as the
low approaches the region overnight and into Monday. Roadways are
already slick this afternoon and driving conditions will continue to
deteriorate this afternoon and evening. Tonight`s concern will
mainly be travel related as heavy snowfall will make for slick
roadways and low visibility at times.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Forecast concern will be the chance of precipitation into Saturday
night with main emphasis on Friday into Friday night. Satellite
showing a progressive/nearly zonal flow over most of the Pacific.
However that flow buckles and become split and more amplified over
the western of half the North America.

Remnants of the southern end of complex upper trough that is
currently moving through the area will be hanging around through the
day on Thursday. The trough is weak plus there is little to no
moisture available for it to work on. So will keep it dry which is
what the forecast builder gave me.

What gets more interesting is the trough that affects the area
Friday and Friday night. Next mean/large scale upper trough is
developing from the eastern Pacific into the western half of the
country. Models differ on the details and are still not in good
agreement. However the models are consistent in developing a
negatively tilted/slightly closed off system just to our west and
then moving it north and east across the area during this period.

Models showing a decent amount of moisture with precipitable water
values near a half inch. The theta-e lapse rates are not negative
but are low positive. The forcing is weak to moderate. Am concerned
that models may be underdoing this system. Considering the
strength and negatively tilted nature of this system and a
favorable storm track, chose to have a low chance of precipitation
over most of the area. This time period will have to be watched
closely.

Models show another system coming in Saturday night on the heals of
the Friday night system. This system looks weaker, a little further
south, and moisture starved. So chose to keep the slight chance for
the far south and southeast portion of the area for Saturday night.

Mid/upper level ridging builds into the area Sunday and will bring
dry conditions with it. Considering the active nature of the flow
and lack of model/ensemble agreement, chose to make little to no
changes to the temperatures the builder gave me. However one thing
to note. Depending on the amount of snow and/or ice still around
from current storm and what the upcoming storm does, high
temperatures may need to be lowered.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1034 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

The low associated with the system spreading a wintry mix of
precipitation across the central high plains region this evening
will continue to lift out of Texas and into eastern Kansas by mid
day on Monday and western Illinois by Monday night. As the system
pulls cooler air aloft southward on the back side of the system as
it lifts across the plains states, precipitation is expected to
transition to all snow snow after about 09Z at MCK and GLD with
precipitation generally coming to an end by 20Z Monday afternoon.

Conditions at GLD will remain near the VLIFR/LIFR threshold
overnight through 18Z. The initially mixed phase precipitation is
expected to change to all snow by 09Z with conditions
transitioning back to IFR as snow ends and conditions become VFR
again between 02-05Z.

MCK will also remain near the LIFR/VLIFR threshold through the
overnight hours and through about 20Z tomorrow afternoon. Expect
light snow to develop and continue from 09Z through about 19Z.
Between 20Z-01Z...expect snow to end and conditions to transition
from LIFR to MVFR with VFR expected after 02Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

     Ice Storm Warning until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for
     KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for
     COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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