Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201913
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
113 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL CLEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. NAM DEVELOPS
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
THERE IS NO SIGN OF A LLJ AND UPPER RIDGING ALOFT SO WILL KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.

RETURN FLOW/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY AXIS BY THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER RIDGE
DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT THERE IS NO SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION. WILL GO DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE EAST UPSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. 500 MB RIDGE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER PLACING THE AREA IN
SUBSIDENCE. HAVE DOWNPLAYED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN MOVE EAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

500 MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. WEAK VORTICITY LOBE WILL
SWING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY 18Z. ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN
LOW/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY
MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED
REASONABLY WELL WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS TROUGH ALTHOUGH
GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS...DEEPEST
MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD COMBINE TO
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BEING HIGHEST ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...AFTER WHICH LEE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND MID LEVELS HEIGHTS RISE. IN THIS SCENARIO TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AMONG DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW. THERE HAS BEEN
A TREND TOWARD A RATHER COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE
BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF STRONG
WEST COAST TROUGH BY THURSDAY. GFS NOW SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND RETROGRADING WESTWARD BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. GFS SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AS IT IS DISPLACED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE GEFS MEAN
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THIS AS
WELL BUT EVOLVES IT DIFFERENTLY AND HAS THE LOCATION SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES OFF COMPARED WITH THE GFS. NEEDLESS TO SAY
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS LATE IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST WITH
POPS. THE CONSISTENCY/CONSENSUS BLEND IS NOT FAR FROM CLIMO POP SO
ACCEPTED IT WITH NO CHANGES ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO OF THE HODGEPODGE
OF MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WOULD NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS LATE
IN THE EXTENDED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT COLD/WARM ADVECTION IN ANY
OF THE SCENARIO DEPICTED SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE PAST KMCK/KGLD. SURFACE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z...AND EXPECT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...MENTZER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.