Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 291912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
112 PM MDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Except for the possibility of a few high clouds and minor
differences in temperature, very little change is expected in the
weather conditions across the Central High Plains region over the
next 24-36 hours.

The strong ridge aloft remains in place over the Rockies and High
Plains through Friday. The ridge extends from the high pressure
center over the Gulf of Mexico northward to the Canadian border
between a strong low pressure that remains nearly stationary over
the eastern U.S. while the next strong low pressure area to affect
the region early next week begins to rotate into the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, higher pressure remains over eastern
Nebraska and eastern Kansas while a trough of lower pressure
extends along the Rocky Mountain Front Range. A couple of weak
short wave troughs move up the back side of the upper ridge
tonight and Friday, which will help deepen the surface lee trough
and will bring some high clouds east of the Rockies and across the
high plains. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry with
temperatures overnight in the 40s and high temperatures on Friday
in the 70s across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

High pressure ridge will move across the Plains on Sunday with a
deep trough and associated area of low pressure approaching from the
west. Dry conditions will prevail on Sunday with above normal
temperatures as the ridge is pushed off to the east. The low will
move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies as we head
into Monday with Moisture levels increasing as the 850mb winds
continue out of the south to southwest. The cold front associated
with the low will approach the western portions of the CWA on
Tuesday by around midday with PoPs increasing mainly for areas east
of the Kansas/Colorado border as the front pushes across the area
through the course of the day. There will be marginal instability
and CAPE in the eastern half of the CWA with decent low level shear
Tuesday afternoon and evening thus will need to monitor closely for
the possibility of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

The front will move through the remainder of the CWA overnight with dry
weather expected after sunrise on Wednesday. Highs will top out in
the upper 60s to near 70 degrees on Wednesday behind the front. We
could see another round of patchy frost Wednesday night as
temperatures drop into the upper 30s with dew points in the upper
20s to near 30 degrees.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR conditions will persist at both MCK and GLD through the TAF


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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