666
FXUS63 KLMK 292312
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
712 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms today and Monday.

* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

* Isolated showers and storms are possible for Independence Day, but
  most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

This afternoon...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s so far
and getting closer to convective temperatures. A very moist and
unstable environment will allow for scattered showers and storms to
develop this afternoon. These diurnal storms will begin to dissipate
this evening as the sun sets.

Tonight... Most of tonight will remain dry with broken skies. Light
southerly winds and recent precip may lead to some light, patchy fog
development especially in protected valley areas.

Monday and Monday Night... A trough will push through the Ohio
Valley bringing a cold front towards the region. This trough will
increase shear (although still weak) and bring some better forcing
to a present tropical airmass. Some CAMs want to bring a cluster of
showers and storms through in the early morning. These storms will
likely dissipate as they move east over the region. Mid morning
through early afternoon will remain dry with scattered skies. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s. Scattered
showers and storms will then develop in the afternoon and evening as
the cold front approaches the region. These storms will have access
to 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, and slightly better lapse rates
compared to the previous few days. These conditions will allow for
storms (a few strong storms) to develop in the afternoon ahead of
the cold front. Storms will last through the evening and into the
first part of Monday night. Main threat is pulse cells, wet
microbursts, gusty to damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.
Storms will outrun the better forcing along the front and
instability will wane with sunset, allowing storms to steadily
weaken overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tuesday - Thursday...

The cold front will push through the region on Tuesday bringing
lower dew points and more comfortable conditions to the region mid
week. Along the cold front scattered showers will be possible.
Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry during this time.
High temperatures will remain near normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Independence Day - Next Weekend...

An upper trough will swing over the northern Ohio Valley late week
bringing an isolated to scattered chance of showers and storms over
the northern half of the region on Friday. Brief ridging and high
pressure will move over the region on Saturday into Sunday, keeping
conditions dry and warm with temperatures in the low 90s. By late
Sunday and into early next week, ridging pushes east of the region
and precip chances increase.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 712 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Will continue to see some scattered showers/storms move northeast
across the region this evening.  We should see a lull in the
convection from mid to late evening.  Latest guidance suggests
another round of convection may develop and move eastward into the
region late tonight and perhaps toward sunrise.  Expect a general
lowering of cigs late tonight with that batch of possible convection
moving across southern IN and far northern KY.  Cigs will improve as
this convection moves off to the east.  More scattered
showers/storms are expected Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....MJ