Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KLMK 220248

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1048 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1049 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Forecast is on track this evening as temperatures falling off into
the 40s in spots were clouds have diminished. Across our east,
stratocu is still holding on, and will only slowly clear from west
to east. Therefore, like the continued mention of patchy frost
potential across the western two-thirds of the CWA, where clearest
skies and lightest winds will be. Looking for lows in the upper 30s
and low 40s in most spots. Will not change the Special Weather
Statement at this time.

.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Forecast on track for high pressure being centered far enough
southwest of us for enough of a pressure gradient in our northeast.
This gradient should be strong enough to prevent frost development
late tonight.  The gradient will be weaker over our western and
central areas though, so with low temperatures ranging from 37-41,
expect some patches of frost. Given this is the first possibility
for frost, will highlight with a special weather statement.

Saturday is looking like another cool day, but sunshine should make
it feel a little warmer even though temperatures likely will be
close to today`s highs. Saturday night, the high will be to our
south, making for a gentle south to southwesterly wind overnight.
Lows should respond by being a little warmer and high enough to
preclude frost chances. Coldest spots should be in our east.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Dry front still on track to clear the region Sunday night/Monday,
keeping our forecast dry and temperatures from rising to the above
normal levels we had earlier this week. A blended analysis of the
model data indicates we`ll hover around normal each day. Monday
night could be another patchy frost night, but this time in our
northeast, where the winds will be lighter.

The next chance for rain looks to come as a more-moist front moves
through late Wednesday to Thursday. Actual temperatures for
Wednesday and even Thursday will depend on exact timing of that
front, so there is some lower confidence in the "normal" values
listed for those days.


.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Expansive area of surface high pressure building into the region, so
will keep a dry and VFR forecast through the period. Only concern is
Sct-Bkn stratocu deck around 4-5 K feet, along with a steady NW
wind. These winds will be slowly diminishing toward dawn, along with
coverage of clouds. A light WNW wind will take hold on Saturday with
mostly sunny skies.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.