Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 031630
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1230 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED, LEAVING US WITH ALMOST A CARBON
COPY OF WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS
GIVEN WEAKER RIDGING, SO 20 POP REMAINS ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING.  TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE
VALLEYS TO UPPER 60S.  IN THE URBAN AREAS, TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN
THE LOWER 70S.  WE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE WITH A BIT OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S REGION WIDE.

FOR TODAY, COMBINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 20%.  HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WELL WITH A
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A SEASONABLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PERSISTENT RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AS WE REMAIN SITUATED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND ON THE WEST
SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.  GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
ACHIEVED THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE FORECAST THICKNESSES...SEE NO
REASON WHY WE WON`T CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH SOME MID 90S LIKELY IN THE WARM SPOTS.  THE ONLY
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY WHERE SUBTLE WAVES WILL BE TRAVERSING
AND MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GIVEN A FETCH OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.  HOWEVER...COVERAGE CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
SPARSE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS.  THE 12Z ECMWF WAS VERY FAST WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.  THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER...BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERABLY QUICKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS.  GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND THE SUPPORT IT HAS FROM ITS ENSEMBLE...PLUS
THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE TENDS TO BREAK DOWN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES TOO
QUICKLY...WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.  THIS KEEPS PRECIP
CHANCES RATHER LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES
LOOKING TO INCREASE WITH THE FROPA JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST.  ONCE THE FRONT DOES PASS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES, GIVING US A LARGELY PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE IMPACT OF MORNING HAZE/FOG,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY. AS WITH THE
PAST TWO DAYS, WILL KEEP THE RESTRICTION IN UNTIL LATE MORNING AT
SDF, WHILE BWG/LEX SHOULD GO VFR BY MID-MORNING.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LIGHT NW WINDS AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.
AFTERNOON POP-UP STORMS WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO BE WORTHY OF
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........RAS
SHORT TERM.....MJ
LONG TERM......KJD
AVIATION.......RAS



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