Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 242308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
708 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Surface high pressure and benign upper flow will allow for a dry and
mostly clear period of weather in the short term. Drier dew points
in the 50s continue to move into our region this afternoon making
for a pleasant feel. This drier air combined with 925 mb winds
staying up around 15 knots overnight should mitigate any fog

A subtle shortwave will slide through the lower Great Lakes on
Sunday morning, with an associated low level jet sinking across
southern IN and weakening over northern KY. As we move into the late
morning and early afternoon, we may see some gusts around 20-25 mph,
along with a few clouds. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with temps
in the upper 70s to around 80.

Sunday night brings more clear skies with lows dropping into the mid
50s in most spots. Some lower 50s can be expected in decoupled

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017


Broad troughing will cover the eastern half of the CONUS to start
the new work week. The atmospheric column will be dry with surface
high pressure also in place. So, expect a mostly sunny and dry day
with very pleasant highs in the mid and upper 70s. Dew points will
be in the upper 40s in many spots!

Monday Night - Tuesday...

By Monday night, a shortwave embedded in the NW flow aloft will
slide into the Tennessee Valley. There is a signal that some showers
could be associated with the left exit region of this feature. That
being said, the GFS ensemble mean takes most of the deep moisture
associated with this feature just to the south of the CWA. Will only
mention low chances for a shower for now until a better and more
consistent signal presents itself. Otherwise, expect dry across the
northern half of the CWA with lows mostly in the mid 50s.

Shortwave quickly passes through on Tuesday morning with any
precipitation ending across our south and east. Subsidence in the
wake of the shortwave, dry NW flow aloft and high pressure at the
surface will result in dry conditions for the remainder of the day.
Look for highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night...

The mid week time frame looks dry as the zonal upper pattern lacks
mentionable features and surface high pressure holds on. We`ll see
increased temps by Wednesday with highs in the low and mid 80s.
Overnight lows in the mid 50s on Tuesday night will give way to
overnight lows in the mid 60s by Wednesday night. Southerly surface
flow will have returned by then, brining back some of the low level
moisture necessary for milder lows.

Thursday - Saturday...

A disturbance moves into the northern Great Lakes on Thursday and
into New England by Friday. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will
become quasi-stationary as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper
flow across the Midwest and into the eastern Plains. In addition,
upper ridging will be positioned off the SE US, and will try to hold
influence over our region.

Models are depicting Gulf moisture return rotating around the
western periphery of the upper ridge making it back into our region
during this time, which could be enough to spark isolated to
scattered convection in the presence of diurnal heating by Friday
and Saturday. Some model solutions also try to bring the frontal
boundary in the Ohio River Valley which would provide focus for more
widespread coverage of showers and storms. Prefer to keep pops
relatively low Thursday and Friday, and temps up a bit as these
types of setups tend to be slower than anticipated. The main factors
would be the strength of the upper ridge to our SE, and what appears
to be a favorable setup for the frontal boundary to stall or be
quasi-stationary at the least. Will go with mid to upper 80s for
highs, and scattered diurnal storms each afternoon Fri/Sat. Expect
milder lows in the upper 60s to near 70 Thursday night.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

High pressure will continue to build into the region this evening
and overnight.  This will result in VFR conditions at the terminals
for the period.  Winds this evening will be light out of the
northwest and will likely veer a little more to the west during the
overnight hours.  VFR conditions are expected on Sunday.  Decent
mixing may result in wind gusts up to 20kts at KSDF and KLEX Sunday


Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Here are some record low max and record low climate data for the
early part of next week for SDF, LEX, and BWG ASOS sites.

Record Lows        Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              52              52                51
June 27th              52              51                52
June 28th              53              50                50

Record Low Max     Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              68              66                75




Short Term...BJS
Long Term....BJS
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