Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 220718
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
318 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...Cooler and drier airmass in place...

Well...the cold front has pushed thru the entire CWA ushering in
much cooler, pleasant and drier air.  Dew Points have been dropping
all night into the mid 50s and will drop in to the mid to upper 40s
today.

An inordinate amount of high CI/CS cloud cover Srn Plains into the
ARLATX will push NE today and bring periods of thick cloud cover
while most of the day will have filtered sunshine. This will keep
highs about 3-4 degrees below MOS guidance...with highs in the low
to mid 70s.

Biggest change of the short term is removing all precip Monday night
down south and during the day Tuesday.  Srn stream forcing will stay
south of the state line and the next short wave to the west will
delay til at least 00z. This was coordinated with WFO PAH/BNA and
JKL.

Decent radiational cooling tonight with light winds and high clouds
thinning out overnight. Dropped some of the low lying and valley
spots into the upper 40s. Lapse rates steepen with decent sw flow on
Tue and temps will shoot up nicely during the day Tue and should
rise into the 75 to 80 degree range.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun May 22 2017

...Upper low bringing well below normal temps Wed-Thu...
...Warmer with MCS pattern Memorial Day weekend?...

Well...Dry weather is short-lived this week, with a deep upper
trough digging s-se into the Midwest Tue night. This bowling ball
low will be a menace Wed-Thu...bringing categorical POPs of shra on
Wed. On Thu...system will bring more sct shra with low WBZ bringing
graupel and small pea hail and temps in the mid 60s (might even be
in the low 60s in spots). The Normal highs are in the 82 to 85
range.

The highest rain chances will be Wednesday as upper troughing moves
over the Ohio Valley and surface low pressure moves NE with plenty
of upper forcing and isentropic upglide. There is a slight chance
for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. With CAA and
widespread cloudiness, highs on Wednesday will only be in the upper
60s.

Thursday evening through Friday looks dry as weak upper ridging and
surface high pressure build in. Highs on Friday will warm back into
the mid 70s to low 80s.

The Memorial Day weekend looks warm with highs back into the 80s,
but with plenty of rain and storm chances as a couple of shortwaves
eject east in the WSW flow aloft. Looks like a MCS pattern somewhere
in MS/OH/TN Valley, but too nebulous this far out to go gangbusters
with POPs at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period as sfc high pressure
moves into the area.  Few-sct cirrus will be possible throughout the
TAF period.  Winds will generally by light (under 6 kts) and
easterly.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...JDG
Long Term...JDG
Aviation...AMS


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