Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 281927
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Currently through this evening:

Storms have already begun to erupt across portions of southern and
western KY and are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through around sunset this evening. Moisture tongue draped across
western KY and digging into central KY is visible on the CIMSS
NearCast model and depicted in dewpoint surface obs. Latest SPC
MesoAnalysis shows the more significant DCAPE values to the south of
the TN/KY border but certainly cannot rule out
downbursts/microbursts still occurring with some of the taller
storms. OHX sounding at 12Z this morning had just over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE; 18Z GFSBufr sounding has over 3000 J/kg of CAPE in southern
KY, which lines up with the MesoAnalysis. In other words, plenty of
instability for these storms to work with, in conjunction with the
aforementioned moisture. Wind fields and shear are on the weak side,
and thus far, storms have very little motion to them, which combined
with the heavy to torrential rainfall threat, could lead to some
localized flooding concerns. Any storms that develop this
afternoon/this evening will dissipate after sunset.

Overnight through early Friday morning:

Skies will clear out for the most part overnight, winds will go
light to calm, and lingering low-level moisture (especially in areas
where rain had fallen) will equate to fog potential, particularly in
and around prone locations. Fog should remain on the lighter and
patchier side. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s in the
Bluegrass region to around the 70 degree mark in the Louisville
Metro and southwestern KY. No mentionable precip is in the forecast.

Friday through Friday night:

Weak frontal boundary currently laid out across southern KY will
lift back northward tomorrow as a warm front. This boundary will
serve as a primary focus for convection but as we`ve seen today,
leftover boundaries abounded and will likely see a similar setup
tomorrow. While there is moderate confidence in convection tomorrow
(again isolated to scattered in nature), model soundings are showing
much drier mid-level air filtering in and a cap that could limit
convection. With the warm front expected to lift north and southerly
flow kicking in, this mid-level dry air could be overdone.
Instability is also depicted as being a bit less as compared to
today but will have steep low-level lapse rates again. One thing to
keep in mind is that for the most part, deterministic models have
had a difficult time capturing the details and evolution of these
smaller scale pulse events and in some cases, underdone what has
actually happened over the last couple of days. Storms could once
again pose the threat of strong to possibly damaging winds. Any
development will once again wane after sunset as they lose diurnal
heating.

Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, ranging from the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Dewpoints will again mimic today, generally in the
60s to 70s, although guidance is suggesting the higher values will
be in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Lows overnight Friday
will be near or slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging
from the mid 60s in the Bluegrass to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Multiple Rounds of Precipitation Possible this Holiday Weekend...

An upper level trough and sfc low pressure will move east across the
Great Lakes region Sat/Sun with a slow moving sfc trough to approach
the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Precipitation will begin ahead of
this trough on Sat gradually spreading eastward throughout the day.
Soundings depict enough wind shear for perhaps some organized
multicell clusters of storms on Sat.  However, instability may be a
limiting factor depending on cloud cover early in the day Saturday.
The Bluegrass would be the best area for instability to build during
the day Sat and perhaps the best region for any strong storms to
develop.

The main rounds of rain will arrive for Sat night/Sun as multiple
disturbances move NE through the Ohio Valley ahead of the trough in
a warm, moisture rich environment.  With PWATs near 2 inches and a
deep warm cloud layer Sat night/Sun, multiple rounds of
showers/storms may cause minor flooding issues.

For the beginning of next week, convection chances will continue
although models vary quite a bit on exact timing.  The tail end of
this trough could linger long enough to cause on and off
precipitation Sun night/Monday according to most long range models.
However, convection timing does vary a bit among 12z models and
from run to run.  The next feature to cause yet more rounds of
convection will be a frontal boundary progged to lay out some where
over the Midwest for midweek next week.

Temperatures in the long term will stay near normal with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s most
days.  The one day that could be significantly cooler is Sunday as
multiple rounds of rain throughout the day may limit the diurnal
rise to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Convection is already beginning to develop across portions of
southwestern KY and this activity is expected to increase in
coverage and intensity over the next few hours. Given the isolated
to scattered nature of the storms expected (much like yesterday),
have introduced VCTS into the BWG TAF through the remainder of the
afternoon and will update for approaching storms as necessary. This
convection is anticipated to stay south and west of the SDF and LEX
terminals, although not completely out of the question for some
vicinity activity to pop-up. However, chances in and around those
two terminals appear to be lower and confidence in direct impacts is
low.

Winds are generally out of the NE this afternoon and are expected to
become variable and light or calm in the overnight period at all
three sites. Light fog could once again develop by the pre-dawn
hours across the region with BWG having the best chances if rain
falls in the area. For now, have gone with low-end MVFR and will
wait to see how close precip falls around the terminal. LEX should
also see MVFR, regardless if rain doesn`t fall in that area. SDF is
expected to either teeter MVFR/VFR or maintain VFR conditions unless
rain dictates otherwise.

For tomorrow, winds will become primarily southerly as warm, moist
air advects into the region in front of a large-scale system
approaching the Ohio Valley over the holiday weekend. Another
afternoon CU field is expected to develop by Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg





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