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000
FXUS63 KLMK 271430
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1030 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of
    the southwest at times today and Sunday.

*   Rain chances return for Monday and again in the Wednesday
    through Saturday time frame.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Light echoes are moving through the region producing very brief,
light rain. This will continue through most of the afternoon.
Temperatures have warmed into the low 70s. Gusty winds up to 35mph
will continue this afternoon. The current forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Vertically-stacked low pressure is rotating northeast into the Upper
Midwest early this morning, pulling a warm front north through the
Lower Ohio Valley. A 5-7 degree T/Td gradient is noted from SW to NE
in the CWA as winds begin to veer slightly more southerly. A 50 kt
SW LLJ is currently streaming overhead, as seen on both RAP
mesoanalysis data and recent SDF ACARS soundings. Though it is
breezy and will only get breezier after sunrise, stable lower levels
have kept much of that wind aloft up to this point.

A band of showers with isolated embedded thunder has crossed the
Mississippi River into western portions of KY/TN. This activity is
forecast to continue northeastward while weakening this morning.
Recent SDF ACARS soundings have shown a sizable wedge of dry mid-
level air that will support gradual dissipation of the precip. A
brief shower or two will certainly be possible today, most likely
this morning in southern IN. Have PoPs briefly peaking between 20-40
percent in southern IN and tapering to around 10 percent in central
KY.

Much of the day will be dry and mostly cloudy at any one location.
We`ll see a few more breaks in the clouds late in the day. Winds
will become more consistently gusty shortly after sunrise. Wind
gusts of 25-35 mph are likely mid-morning into the afternoon hours,
before gusts diminish this evening. Strong, deep southerly flow will
result in a warm day with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s
to lower 80s in most places.

The southerly flow pattern will remain in place through tonight as a
Four Corners low pressure system moves out over the Plains.
Downstream ridging will remain in place over the eastern United
States. Expect a mild, dry night with lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Sunday through Tuesday Night...

Upper level ridging will remain in place across the area on Sunday
resulting in a warm and breezy day.  Daytime highs will be in the 80-
85 degree range with south to southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts
of 25-30 mph in the afternoon.  A slow moving frontal boundary will
push toward the region late Sunday.  Model solutions continue to
trend slower here and the forecast for Sunday night probably will
continue to trend drier in future runs.  For now, will keep some
small PoPs out across our far NW areas for early Monday morning.
Lows will be 60-65 degree range.

Aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to slowly work eastward
on Monday and then begin to wash out across the area.  Scattered
rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible during
the day, with the best chances west of the I-65 corridor.  Model
soundings continue to show little in the way of instability and wind
shear continues to look very marginal for organized convection.
Showers will likely continue into Monday night and early Tuesday
with drier conditions through the day.  Highs Monday will be a bit
cooler due to anticipated clouds with readings in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s.  Highs
Tuesday look to warm into the upper 70s to around 80.  Lows Tuesday
night will cool into the upper 50s to around 60.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Forecast confidence through this period is a bit below normal here
given the model spread.  Earlier forecasts generally agreed with a
frontal boundary coming into the region around mid-week.  The GFS
continues to support this idea, through the Euro is a bit slower and
keeps this system more in the Thursday time frame.  As we move
toward midweek, low amplitude ridging is forecast over the eastern
US (Mid-Atlantic) with troughing moving into the Great Basin.  A
broad southwest flow will be seen across the area with the Ohio
Valley remaining on the periphery of the east coast ridging.  While
the main storm track looks to be northwest of us, unsettled weather
conditions look likely in the Wednesday-Friday period with mainly
diurnally driven convection each day.  Thursday and Friday look to
have the highest PoP coverage with this forecast.  Model soundings
do show some afternoon instability each day but shear profiles
remain quite weak as higher momentum flow will remain well to the
north of the Ohio Valley.  The unsettled weather may linger into
Saturday as well as the overall pattern remains the same with the
potential for a stronger perturbation to arrive by late Sat into
Sunday.

Highs Wednesday will be the warmest of the period with readings in
the 80-85 degree range.  Highs Thursday and Friday will be cooler
given the anticipated cloud cover and precipitation coverage with
upper 70s to around 80 expected.  Overnight lows will be in the 60s.
Highs Saturday look to average in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Largely VFR weather continues with BKN mid and high clouds today.
There is a small chance for a brief shower or storm this morning,
with the best chance at BWG at the beginning of the TAF period.

Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be strong winds. LLWS
conditions are ending at the start of this TAF period as surface
winds increase and the low-level jet begins to weaken. Gusts in
excess of 25 kts are likely today with a few 30+ kt peak gusts
possible. Wind gusts will diminish this evening. Marginal LLWS will
again be a concern tonight into early Sunday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW