Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 141131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
631 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

The short term period will feature a relatively quiet period of
weather. The cold front associated with the fast moving low pressure
system has passed through the region early this morning. Gusty
northwesterly winds continue this morning, particularly across the
Wind Advisory area. Will keep the Advisory through its expiration as
there have still been a few gusts to 38-39 mph in the last hour. At
this time, no extension is anticipated, however.

For the remainder of today into tonight, high pressure will be
ridging in from the west. Temperatures will continue to fall quite a
bit through sunrise into the upper 20s to lower 30s. With continued
cold air advection, it will be a chilly day with highs topping out
in the mid 30s to around 40. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
to mid 20s.

For Friday a shortwave will swing through. Precipitation with this
system should stay well north of the forecast area, though southern
IN and north central KY will likely see some increased cloud cover.
Highs will remain on the cool side in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Surface high pressure will work its way across the southeastern
CONUS Friday night through Saturday. Aloft we will have a deep
trough the the west and weak ridging across the lower Ohio Valley.
Dry weather is expected for Friday night and Saturday with
temperatures warming to back near or just a bit above normal for
this time of year.

A wave ejecting northeast out of the western trough will approach
Saturday night and move through on Sunday bringing fairly widespread
rain to the region. Most of Saturday night should be dry, though a
few showers may work into southwest central KY before sunrise. This
rain will spread across the region through the morning Sunday. Highs
will top out in the mid to upper 40s making for a chilly rainy day.
There looks to be a lull in precipitation on Sunday night before
another weak wave may bring some more showers on Monday into
Tuesday. With southerly winds and ridging aloft Monday`s and
Tuesday`s highs should warm into the 50s despite the potential for
some rain. Lows look to be in the mid 30s.

High pressure will then build in for Tuesday night into Thursday
morning. This will result in dry weather with temperatures running a
bit above normal.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the most part.  A few patches of
high end MVFR may affect the TAF sites for the next few hours but
other than that VFR should prevail. Winds will continue to diminish
this morning becoming light and northerly by this evening.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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