Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 051128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

A shortwave ridge overhead today will be replaced by an incoming
shortwave trough tomorrow. Also, a weak surface trough will pass by
just to our north today. However, despite these features, a dry
lower atmosphere will result in just an increase in high clouds this
afternoon through Saturday morning, and some mid clouds Saturday

Highs today will be in the middle 40s, with lows tonight in the 20s.
Lower 50s appear attainable Saturday with southwest breezes possibly
gusting into the teens in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

After a shortwave ridge gives us nice weather for the weekend, a
deep upper trof digging into the eastern United States will bring
chilly and unsettled weather to the LMK CWA for the work week.

A clipper is still expected to cross the Great Lakes region Sunday
night-Monday night, then pull off to the northeast
Tuesday/Wednesday. A weaker clipper may drop into the Plains behind
the first one, traversing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday
night and Wednesday. These systems plus any pieces of upper level
energy along with sufficient moisture and cold temperatures
necessitate PoPs in the forecast at least Sunday night through
Wednesday morning. The precipitation should start off as mostly rain
Sunday night and Monday, but then will be in the form of light snow
Monday night through Wednesday as cold air pours in from Canada.
Advisory level snows may be possible.

Temperatures are somewhat challenging, especially once the cold
Canadian air invades the area. Wednesday-Thursday numerical GFS
temperature guidance has been steadily warming over the past three
runs, mirroring its increasing 1000-500 thickness trend over that
same number of runs. The ECMWF numerical guidance, on the other
hand, has been on a general cooling trend recently. The EC has been
more consistent with the strength of the eastern trough over its
past few runs. Given the colder EC`s relative consistency and with
the possibility of snow cover, will go on the cold side of guidance
for temperatures from Monday night on. That puts us into the teens
for morning temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, but how much snow
we get will have a big influence on just how low the temperatures
actually go.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions will hold at SDF, LEX, and BWG throughout the
forecast period. Sct to bkn high-level cirrus clouds will move east
into and across Kentucky today, but no low clouds are expected.
Winds will be south to southwest at 5-10 mph today then light
southwest tonight.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
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