Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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476
FXUS63 KLMK 222252
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
652 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Afternoon min dewpoints were around 60 over southern KY, closer to
forecast lows than for points farther north. Decided to throw in
some patches of fog down there with an evening update. Otherwise
just tried to match up obs with current temps.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue with
strong upper level ridging in place.  Expect high temps in the upper
80s to low 90s for Fri with lows in the low to mid 60s tonight and
Fri night.  Drier air mixing down during the afternoon/early evening
hours will continue to provide some comfortability despite the hot
temps.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Saturday - Sunday...

Upper ridge will hold on through the weekend, maintaining summertime
temps with daytime highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. We don`t really
get the ridge axis far enough east for any substantial moisture
return until late Sunday, so humidity levels will remain reasonable
and min temps should run just slightly above normal.

Monday - Thursday...

Rain chances will return to the region Mon as a strong cold front
approaches the region.  Models are still struggling on how much
convection will form along this front with the GFS notably wetter
than the ECMWF.  The ECMWF is also much weaker with the associated
upper low.  While rain and a cool down are still on track for early
to mid week, confidence remains low on exact timing and exactly how
cold it will get behind the front.  For now will continue low rain
chances Mon-Wed AM with temps cooling off into the 70s for highs
Tue-Thu.
.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

VFR TAF period expected for SDF/LEX. Some guidance hinting at a
brief drop to MVFR vsby at LEX around daybreak, but given crossover
temperatures in the mid 50s and forecast lows in the low 60s, will
edge on the side of VFR. KBWG did not dry as much, so they stand a
better chance at fogging up in the early morning hours. Have gone a
more pessimistic in this forecast for that reason, going down to
brief LIFR conditions.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS



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