Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
FXUS63 KLMK 201320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
920 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Forecast looks to be in pretty good shape this morning.  Rounds of
scattered rain showers and perhaps an isld t-storm will continue
through early afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.  A
better chance for more numerous showers/storms still exists during
the mid afternoon through evening time frame as better forcing
arrives just head of the front.  Potential exists for strong to
potentially severe storms with strong winds this afternoon/evening,
but the rain/clouds early in the day may limit instability and storm
strength.  High temps still look to be in the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016

...Round of Strong Storms Possible Late This Afternoon and Evening...

Low pressure is developing over eastern Iowa, along a frontal
boundary that is interacting with a trough diving across the Central
Plains this hour. Ahead of this feature, precipitable waters will
increase once again. This surge of moisture is seen by some light
showers on 88D mosaic entering our southwest forecast area. Latest
ARW/NMM WRF`s both show some scattered precip the rest of the
morning hours, followed by another round later this afternoon and
then a third closer to the cold front. This last feature should get
down to our section of the Ohio River sometime this evening.

The multiple rounds of convection should help to limit overall
instability, but there will be pockets from areas that avoid
convection during the day. Still there is a marginal amount of wind
shear aloft that could support some more organized cells just ahead
of the front late this afternoon and evening. These cells would
produce stronger wind gusts as well as brief heavy rain.

By this time tomorrow night, showers should be ending across our
southeast forecast area, with the front clear of the region as well.
Will just carry low chances in our southeast for the daytime period.
For most of the region, it will feel noticeably drier and pleasant
with highs mostly staying in the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Surface high pressure will dominate the region to Tuesday, providing
cool mornings and nice days. That high will shift east of the region
Tuesday, and allow us to warm up and steadily increase moisture
again. GFS and 12Z Euro both show some QPF getting back into the
picture Wednesday, whereas the GEM (and the new Euro coming in)
keeps us dry. Would not be surprised to see some warm advection
showers early, but think the GFS/12Z Euro coverage is too extensive
and will keep lower pops and warm temperatures. By the end of the
work week, another cool front will cross the area, bringing another
good chance for showers/storms.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Warm advection scheme showers will move northeastward through the
forecast area this morning.  Ceilings will start off in the MVFR/VFR
range and then drop into the MVFR range through the mid-morning and
into the afternoon hours.  We may see a brief lull in the
precipitation by late morning.  However, more widespread showers and
thunderstorms are likely by mid-afternoon and will linger into the
evening hours as a cold front pushes in from the northwest.  Highest
rain chances still look to be in the 20/21-21/03Z range.  A wind
shift to the west and northwest is expected at KSDF/KBWG late
tonight and towards dawn Sunday at KLEX.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.