Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 161032
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
532 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 530 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Leading edge of a pre-frontal rain band is now south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways, continuing to push into south
central Kentucky. Temps still near 70 ahead of the rain will drop
to around 60 with onset of precip. Farther north, the actual front
is poised to enter our Indiana counties, with precip tapering off
and temps dropping fairly quickly from the mid/upper 50s into the
40s and a decent NW wind surge just behind the front.

Forecast is still on track, and intensity of precip should still
diminish as the morning goes on with the loss of dynamic support.
Hourly trends, especially with temps as they fall through the day,
will continue to be tweaked.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Cold front is currently making very slow headway through southern
Indiana. A fairly solid band of rain along the front continues to
show some hint of training, but the intensity isn`t enough to
support more than about a half inch of rainfall.

Categorical POPs throughout the area today as the front and its
associated rain band slowly push to the south and east. QPF should
generally be around a half inch, with localized amounts approaching
1 inch, but that will drop off farther south and east as a
progressive upper wave leaves this portion of the front behind.
Temps will steadily fall through the morning, with most locations in
the 40s by early afternoon.

A transient area of high pressure builds in tonight, and we`ll cool
to around the freezing mark, which is actually still just a shade
above normal for mid-February.

A southern stream impulse ejecting out of the Sonoran Desert will
bring our next round of rain on Saturday. Expect just enough phasing
with a northern stream wave that it should be able to spread precip
throughout the CWA on Sat afternoon. Expect it to arrive just late
enough in the day to head off most precip type issues, but can`t
rule out a brief period of rain/snow mix as the precipitation
begins. Should go over to all rain quickly enough to limit any
impacts. As for QPF, this system will bring its heaviest rain, just
over a half inch, to the areas that receive less rain from the cold
front today.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...Increasing Potential For River Flooding Next Week...

After a dry and mild period throughout the Ohio Valley Sat night and
Sunday, we go back into our active pattern. This pattern will
amplify as the upper ridge builds off the coast of Florida, and a
trof digs into the Inter-Mountain West, leaving deep southwesterly
flow and a nearly stationary front in between.

Look for fairly widespread precip beginning Sunday night into Monday
as a warm front lifts northward into the Great Lakes. The
approaching cold front will hang up Monday night through Wednesday,
and with plenty of Gulf moisture feeding in, will bring multiple
rounds of moderate to locally heavy rain to some portion of the
area. Rain totals Sunday night through Wednesday could easily exceed
2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts. Latest model runs are
converging on a solution with a stronger ridge, which would put the
heaviest rain over southern Indiana, and could leave parts of south-
central Kentucky high and dry under the warm sector. Additional
rises on area rivers are likely next week, especially but not
exclusively where the heaviest rain falls.

The front finally pushes south and east on Wednesday, which should
at least briefly break the unseasonably warm and wet pattern late in
the week.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Strong cold front stretched between Louisville and Indianapolis at
this hour with a line of showers across southern and central
Indiana. This line will slowly work east/southeast through the
morning and early afternoon hours. Ahead of it, plan on a
continuation of the breezy southwest winds with gusts 20 to 30 kts
at times. Showers, wind shift, and lowering ceilings will arrive at
HNB around 06z, SDF 08z, LEX 10z, and BWG closer to 11-12z. Expect
mostly MVFR ceilings with a few drops into IFR possible at HNB and
LEX. Visibilities should stay above IFR.

Conditions will improve northwest to southeast this afternoon with
VFR conditions expected at all sites by 00z this evening as high
pressure drifts through Illinois and Indiana. Winds will become
light/variable toward the end of the period.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RAS
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...ZT



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