Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 272316
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
716 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Still have some pre squall line storms popping up with hail and some
winds. Just had a report come in from Nelson county of quarter sized
hail.  Other line is just along our border with JKL.

Main line has cut through roughly half of the forecast area, so went
ahead and cut out part of the watch box behind the line. Watching
the bowing segment over southern Indiana as well, but the FRH AWOS
site only gusted to 27 knots as the line went through.

Issued at 520 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Latest RAP mesoanalysis has not been handling the amount of
available CAPE well, as we`ve had several hail reports, mostly
quarter sized or less, though cannot rule out some larger hail in
the pre-frontal airmass from FTK east to KLEX over the next few
hours.

The other area of concern is with the more linear feature moving
near the I-65 corridor in Central KY this hour.  This area has the
most potential instability to work with, as temperatures are well
into the 70s along our border with TN. Seeing some bowing segments
within this line and have issue warnings accordingly. HPX radar was
showing winds closer to 70 mph with this line, but have not had any
reports near that level just yet.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon and Evening...

Strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon with much of the
area under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through this evening.  These
storms are courtesy of a low pressure system moving northeast
through southern IN/northern KY.  1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE has
developed south of the warm front which was over southern IN as of
315pm EDT. 30-40 kts deep layer shear is supportive of both discrete
cells which we`re seeing on radar in our region currently and will
be supportive of the line of storms over western KY which is progged
to move east through the region between 5pm-midnight tonight.

========================
Storm Threats & Timing
========================

Cellular convection will pose a large hail/damaging wind/isld
tornado threat between now and 8pm EDT.

Expect mainly a damaging wind threat with the line of storms but
small hail and a brief spin-up will be possible as well between 5pm
and midnight EDT.

=========================

Convection should decrease after midnight with elevated showers and
perhaps an isld t-storm during the early morning hours in the wake
of the evening complex.  Overnight lows will range through the 50s.

For Tuesday, expect some lingering rain showers mainly east of I-65
before the area becomes totally dry late in the day.  High
temperatures will be in the 60s.  Lows Tues night will range through
the upper 40s/lower 50s.

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Expect dry weather on Wednesday before the pattern turns active
again for the latter portion of the week.  A strong low pressure
system will bring the chance for showers/storms to the region
beginning on Thu/Fri.  Depending on exact evolution and timing, some
of these storms could be on the strong side.  Thu looks to the be
the warmest day in the long term period with highs in the mid to
upper 70s across much of the area.

For the weekend, expect dry weather and slightly cooler temps with
highs dropping back into the 60s.  Another low pressure system looks
to approach the area again by the beginning of the work week next
week.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Line of storms now getting into LEX, with residual rains, occasional
lightning, at the other sites. Will see the worst of it end in the
next few hours, then get a break by just after midnight before some
lower ceilings kick in. Have gone low-end MVFR at BWG/SDF around
daybreak, but went worse for LEX through the morning hours, based on
time height sections and longer time in the moisture overnight in
the east. Lower ceilings should stick around for much of the day
Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...RJS


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