Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 230524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
124 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The most notable thing about the short term forecast is how
UNeventful it will be: few - if any - clouds, no extreme
temperatures, no strong winds...need I go on? Maximum and minimum
temperatures will generally be within a few degrees of seasonal
norms for the rest of the weekend, so in general, a nice fall
weekend for the Ohio Valley.

What is really unusual about this forecast is that all of this
uneventful weather will occur despite a cold frontal passage. A
surface ridge stretching from Lake Michigan to western Kentucky and
the lower Mississippi River this afternoon will drift east and
weaken, giving way to the cold front Sunday night. With no humidity
to work with though, the main change this will bring will be wind
direction and a reinforcement of the cool, dry air already in place
over the area.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s. A few renegade readings in the
upper 30s are not out of the question, but won`t be low enough for
frost, as the ridge should move eastward enough to send most dew
points back above 40 by midnight.  Ahead of the cold front, Highs on
Sunday will warm back into the lower to mid 70s, with minimum
temperatures by Monday morning dipping into the upper 40s to lower

.Long Term (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

After the dry cold front coming through Sunday night, surface and
upper level ridging take over again for the first half of the work
week, resulting in dry weather and temperatures near climatological
norms. By Wednesday night, the next cold front is set to arrive - a
little wetter than its predecessor, but not by much.  Most of the
energy, moisture, and colder air will remain north of the Ohio River
with this one, with only light rain anticipated as it makes its way
through Wednesday night and Thursday.  After the FROPA, dry weather
returns for the remainder of the extended.

Temperature-wise, despite the above-mentioned cold frontal passage,
no wide fluctuations in highs or lows are expected.  Most days will
see highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, though Wednesday may be a few
degrees warmer in advance of the cold front. Overnight lows will be
mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, except for a few degrees warmer
along the Tennessee border Wednesday night before the front passes
through later in the morning on Thursday.


.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions including mostly clear skies will dominate the TAF
period.  Light winds early this morning will become gusty out of the
SW from mid morning onward ahead of an approaching cold front.
Expect wind gusts to subside after sunset with LLWS becoming more of
an issue at SDF/LEX as a strong jetlet passes through the region
just ahead of the dry cold front.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........JBS
Long Term.........JBS
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