Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 261038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
638 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Today - Thursday...

Shortwave ridging will push east today in response to a weak
shortwave trough pushing out of the upper Midwest and into the lower
Great Lakes. We`ll see partly cloudy skies under a steady stream of
upper level cloud cover. In addition, a warm front will lift north
across the area, bringing a return to steady southerly flow at the
surface. Expecting to see highs well above normal in the 76 to 81
range across KY. Along and north of I-64, will look for low to mid
70s as the warm sector will not have as long to get established.

As we move into the overnight, shortwave and associated surface low
will pass through the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, trailing cold front
and meager moisture in the 1000-500 mb layer will move into our NW
CWA. Will put Pops in the 30-40 percent range along and north of the
Ohio River, with very small chances across northern KY as we near

Cold front will continue to push east on Thursday, with best forcing
separating from lingering and shallow low level moisture. As a
result, will taper pops from a slight chance to dry as we move
through the morning toward midday.

Expect mild overnight lows around 60 given steady south flow and
increased cloud cover. Noticeably cooler highs on Thursday behind
the front. Look for mid to upper 60s across the northern half of
CWA. Low to mid 70s may hang on in south central KY.

.Long Term (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Dry Pattern Continues With Above Normal Temperatures...

Thursday Night - Saturday Night...

Expansive upper ridge over the southern CONUS will slowly slide east
as we head into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure should
control along with weak shortwave ridging at times over the Ohio
River Valley. This will result in a dry period with above normal
temperatures. After starting out in the 40s Friday morning, highs
will be around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year,
mostly in the 70 to 75 range. Increased southerly flow by Friday
night will lead to much milder lows in the 50s. By Saturday, look
for highs well above normal in the upper 70s and low 80s. These
numbers won`t be too far from record highs. Saturday night will be
another mild night with lows in the upper 50s to around 60.


Shortwave and associated surface low pass through the Great Lakes
region on Sunday, dragging a cold front through our CWA. At this
point, this system appears to be moisture starved so will continue
with the dry forecast. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than
Saturday in the mid and upper 70s.

Sunday Night - Tuesday...

We should remain on the northern fringes of the upper ridge, and
just to the south of the progressive northern stream as we head into
the next work week. Dry conditions will continue under this pattern,
along with above normal temperatures solidly in the 70s. Another
moisture starved front approaches by Tuesday, but will not have any
mentionable pops unless data trends to more available deep moisture.
Not likely given our prolonged dry stretch.


.Aviation (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the period.
Winds will start off light and variable and then shift to the
southeast this morning and then to the south by late afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase through the period.  VFR conditions
are expected tonight, though a weak front will push in from the
northwest.  This may bring some lower ceilings into KSDF and KLEX
Thursday morning.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.