Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLMK 021350
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
950 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT
DISSIPATED. SUMMER`S LAST STAND WILL CONTINUE WITH STAGNANT HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT STILL SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST, SO THIS UPDATE WILL JUST CLEAN UP THE MORNING FOG WORDING.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, AREA OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN TN.  THIS CLOUD COVER MAY
COMPLICATE FOG FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.  EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL OFF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN START
THEIR DIURNAL UPTICK.

FOR TODAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST.  A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS.  THE RESULTANT FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
BE SOUTHWESTERLY, SO A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES.  THE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY RESULT IN A DELAY IN THE MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE,
BUT LOCAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE`LL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.  IN GENERAL, A RANGE OF 87 TO 92
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS BEING CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  CAN`T RULE OUT SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH FORCING IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT FOCUSED IN ANY
CERTAIN AREA.  AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
15%, THEREFORE PLAN ON GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.  FOR
THURSDAY, WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-65
WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAINFALL.  HIGHS WILL
REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE AN AMPLIFIED AND PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING A RATHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM PERIOD OF
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER
STEAMY CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.  HAVE
UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH PUTS
THEM SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 80S/90S FRIDAY-SUNDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARM
SPOTS.  A DAMPENING WAVE ATTEMPTING TO ROUND THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION FRIDAY MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
65.  FOR THE WEEKEND...WE WILL ACTUALLY GET A FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS EASTERLY.  THIS
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WEAK/SUBTLE EAST-TO-WEST
MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT STORM CHANCES
(DIURNALLY DRIVEN) GOING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  AS EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER
THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTION.  GIVEN KNOWN MODEL BIASES OF
BREAKING RIDGES DOWN TOO QUICKLY...WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER GFS
SOLUTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE SOME SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A BIT...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WHICH WILL MAKE THIS A
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AND PROLONGED HEAT WAVE TO START OFF EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. THINK THAT BOTH LEX AND SDF THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY VFR OR ONLY DROP VERY BRIEFLY TO MVFR. HIGH CLOUDS AT
BWG HAVE LED TO IMPROVED VISIBILITIES OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO BUT
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DIP TO 1/2 MILE OR SO AFTER SUNRISE.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND LEX AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........RAS
SHORT TERM.....MJ
LONG TERM......KJD
AVIATION.......EER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.