Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 220811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.Short Term (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 256 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

An early morning analysis showed a compact stacked upper and surface
low over northern Texas with a warm front situated along the deep
south and Gulf Coast states. Locally, dry conditions prevailed with
mid/high clouds spilling north from convection across northern
MS/AL. Readings were mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For today, the stacked low pressure system over Texas will move
across MS/AL/GA where the bulk of showers and storms are expected to
be confined. Some showers will pinwheel north of the closed low back
into TN and central Kentucky but the latest guidance has really
backed off on the areal coverage and amounts with these bands, and
also delays precipitation moving in our area until at least the
afternoon hours.

As a result, trimmed back precipitation chances considerably this
morning, going dry along/north of the KY parkways and just 20-30
chances south to the TN. By afternoon, scattered showers will be
possible across the entire area but it appears the bulk of it will
be confined to south central KY and portions of the Bluegrass. Highs
will reach the low/mid 60s.

Better rain chances come tonight as the surface low deepens and
approaches the southern Appalachians. A deformation band of rain is
forecast to setup northwest of the low center, or across central TN
to central KY (along/east of I-65). North to northwest winds will
become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens with some gusts to 30
mph possible tonight into Monday morning. Plan on lows in the mid
40s to around 50 degrees.

On Monday, the storm system will move off the North Carolina coast
and any morning showers should begin to exit out of the area by
afternoon. The exception is the I-75 corridor and locations east
where showers may hang around into the evening hours. It`ll remain
mostly cloudy to overcast and noticeably cooler with highs around 50

Total rainfall for the event continues to decrease and will likely
stay under 3/4 of an inch for most places, the exception being the
Lake Cumberland region which might get around 1 inch.

.Long Term (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

The main weather highlight in the long term is a return to
normal to slightly below normal temperatures later in the work week.

After brief ridging and dry weather on Tuesday, a fast moving low
pressure system will track from the central Plains to the Upper
Midwest Wednesday. A cold front will sweep across the lower Ohio
Valley, and is expected to cross our region mainly dry as there is
lack of moisture convergence along the front. It`ll be very breezy
during the day with southwest winds sustained 15 to 25 mph with some
gusts 30 to 35 mph likely. Cold air advection kicks Wednesday night
through the remainder of the work week.

The big story will be the colder temperatures. Highs Thursday
through Saturday will range from the middle 30s to lower 40s, and
mornings low are forecast to be in the 20s. The latest blended data
set shows mainly dry conditions during this period, with just slight
chances of a rain/snow mix confined to the southern Indiana and
northern Bluegrass.


.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Trended back arrival and intensity of precipitation based on the
latest model guidance and downstream obs.  Although the convection
associated with a leading shortwave ahead of an approaching upper
low is strong to severe over the Gulf states this evening, it is
forecast to weaken significantly as it moves northward into our
region.  With the latest models indicating a slow arrival as well,
took precip into BWG at 14Z and SDF/LEX around 18Z with a small
chance for some showery activity and light br before that.  On
arrival of the rains, at least MVFR if not IFR will impact the TAF
sites.  The best chance for showers and isld t-storms for all TAF
sites looks to be this afternoon.  By tonight the pressure gradient
on the NW side of the strong low pressure system will create gusty
winds resulting in northerly wind gusts as high as 20-25 mph.




Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
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