Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 032322
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
622 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
Main forecast concerns in the short term are sprinkles/clouds this
evening and temperatures. Overall, relatively benign weather in the
Stratus deck upstream associated with the advancing upper trough
axis will swing through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late
this afternoon and into the evening hours. 12z ILX sounding and HRRR
soundings for the area this evening show this stratus to be about 50
to maybe 100 mb thick and with weak lift present this evening, there
could be a few sprinkles across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. HRRR simulated reflectivity has been consistent showing a
thin band over the area between 4 and 10p, so have maintained slight
chance of sprinkles in the forecast. Winds will remain gusty to near
20 to perhaps 25 mph at times through the evening as well with
temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s.
Surface high pressure moves across the area Thursday and Thursday
night, setting up a cool but dry day. Plan on highs in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees. We`ll have some morning stratus around but as
the high advances east, this should erode and push east giving way
to some sun by afternoon. Thursday night lows look to fall into the
mid 20s with mostly clear skies and lighter winds.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
The main forecast concern in the long term period is precipitation
chances and temperatures next week.
Friday through the weekend the region will be under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. A couple weather
systems look to pass well south and north of the area, but southern
Indiana and central Kentucky will generally see seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions.
By late Sunday night into Monday, a surface low and anomalously deep
upper trough looks to swing through the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. This will spill colder air down into the area and chances for
precipitation. Depending on temperatures, rain may mix with or
changeover to snow Monday. As the upper trough hangs overhead and
more cold air arrives Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures would
be cold enough to support all snow. The GFS 850 mb temperatures are
considerably colder than the ECMWF and GEM 3.12z solutions. A model
consensus trended downward from the previous forecast, with highs
Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 20s to low 30s and morning
temperatures in the teens. This may trend further down if the GFS
solutions end up verifying. Precipitation chances were brought up
into the 30 to 50 percent range Monday through Wednesday.
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 620 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
Current wall of clouds riding near a SDF/BWG line this hour and has
slowed its eastward progression as it moves into drier low-level
air. With sunset however expect that progression to kick back up
again. Bases are VFR for now but should drop through the overnight,
getting to MVFR levels bay daybreak at SDF and LEX and possibly BWG.
Those cigs should improve again by late morning/early afternoon,
with clearing forecast by late in the period. Winds will be from the
west, but much not nearly as gusty as it has been the last couple of