Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 250502
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1043 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2015

High pressure remains in control of our weather this evening.  Just
seeing a few high cirrus clouds aloft drifting southward across the
forecast area.  These should clear the district a little after
midnight.  Late evening temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s
though the urban centers were still in the lower 80s.  Overnight
temps in the mid-upper 60s still look good at this point.  Just made
a few tweaks to the digital forecast elements to bring current grids
in better alignment with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2015

Surface high pressure across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys,
stretching into the central Appalachians, will give us mostly clear
skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures through the short
term. Some valley fog will be possible early Saturday morning in the
Lake Cumberland region and along the Kentucky River south of
Lexington.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2015

The long term will begin with upper level ridging centered over
northern Texas. This upper level ridging will shift to the north and
east through Monday and Tuesday. Though the forecast area will
remain on the periphery of this ridge, heights will build aloft
through mid week.

Various weak disturbances moving through the upper level flow will
lead to small chances for storms across the region Sunday through
Wednesday. Sunday most of the region should remain dry except for
perhaps the farthest north counties. Beyond Sunday, will carry a
more widespread 20-30% chance for storms each day through Wednesday
as these waves will be hard to time.

The better chance for storms will be late Wednesday night into
Thursday as a cold front approaches and moves through the area.
Soundings are not overly impressive, but a few strong storms will be
possible with this front. In addition, precipitable water values
will be around 2 inches, so very heavy rainfall will accompany any
storm.

Temperatures each day will top out in the upper 80s to the lower
90s. Combined with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, heat index
values will top out in the 95-100 degree range each day through
Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will be a bit cooler as the front
moves through. This should bring somewhat lower dewpoints once again
as well.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 100 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2015

VFR conditions expected for the most part this TAF period as sfc
high pressure and upper level ridging dominate the region.  Brief
MVFR br is possible at BWG between 8 to 12Z.  Other than that, winds
will be light southwesterly or vrb.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS





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