


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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078 FXUS63 KLMK 080750 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds and brief torrential rainfall this afternoon and evening. * Warm and humid all week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Organized severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Radar image continues to show a few isolated showers across central KY here in the early morning hours. Very patchy fog is possible as a few isolated observation sites have seen visibility drop to near 1 mile. Current satellite imagery shows high clouds over central KY which will help keep the threat of fog low. Quasi-stationary boundary will remain north of the Ohio River today into tonight. This will continue to keep us in the warm sector which will mean another warm and muggy day. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid/upper 80s with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. Another day of pop-up showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon. Coverage is once again expected to be scattered with the highest chance of precipitation along and south of the parkways. Torrential rain, thanks to PWAT values around 1.50" will be possible, along with lightning and possible strong gusty winds. Showers and storms will start to taper off as we lose daytime heating after sunset. While a few showers/storms could linger it will be mostly dry with increasing high clouds. Given the cloud cover I think the fog threat looks very low. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The pattern will continue to feature a general ridging to the west and troughiness across the eastern third of the CONUS. The quasi- stationary boundary will meander mainly north of the Ohio River with daily chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given the placement of the boundary to our north, this will keep us in the very warm and muggy airmass featuring highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Coverage of any convection each afternoon looks to be scattered in nature with activity diminishing after sunset. The severe threat from any of these storms remains relatively low given the lack of shear preventing much organization. With PWATs remaining high the main threat from these showers and storms will be localized heavy rainfall, lightning and possible strong wind gusts. By the weekend, we`ll be located between two upper level features, an amplifying ridge over the southeastern US, and a strong upper low over the Dakotas. Additional shower and storms chances are expected as we will remain in a warm and humid airmass. Precip chances will peak each afternoon, and diminish for the nighttime hours each day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Radar continues to show a few showers across central KY with even a few remaining lightning strike. Anticipate this activity to diminish more over the next hour or so. The concern during the overnight is how much cloud cover we will see and if any clearing and light winds will cause some areas of fog to develop. Went with a few TEMPO groups to highlight this but confidence is still on the low side. More clouds are expected during the day tomorrow with a chance of a few scattered showers or storms. The best chance seems to be around the BWG during the afternoon. Overall, VFR remains the primary flight category outside a couple hours before sunrise of MVFR to isolated IFR from fog and low CIG && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN