Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 092329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
729 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017

An inverted trough has started to develop across east central KY.
This trough will shift a bit westward overnight and then shift
eastward again tomorrow and become more washed out. Showers and a
few storms have begun to develop along the convergence zone of this
feature across TN. These will lift into the Lake Cumberland region
this evening and spread up into the Bluegrass tonight. Will have
scattered pops in the forecast for mainly east central KY after
midnight. Showers and storms will continue into the day tomorrow,
mainly east of I-65. They should shift east of the region by
Thursday evening with most of Thursday night expected to be dry.

Temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night, particularly
across south and east central KY where cloud cover will be
increasing and more moisture will be streaming in. Temps should
generally range through the 60s. Conversely tomorrow, east central
KY will be cooler than the rest of the forecast area, though most
should make it into the 80s. Thursday night will see lows in the mid
to upper 60s.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017

The long term period will be fairly unsettled with multiple round of
showers and storms expected to affect the region. However,
confidence in timing remains on the lower side due to timing
difference in the models. The upper level flow will feature broad
troughing to quasi-zonal flow through early next week. A few weak
waves look to move through this flow.

Will mention scattered chances for showers and storms on Friday,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours as a weak
boundary drops south towards the area. Saturday continues to look to
be the driest day with only slight chances for rain. Storm chances
then will increase on Sunday. Confidence then decreases early next
week, but there will be scattered storm chances.

Temperatures through this time frame will be mainly be near or just
a few degrees below normal for this time of year.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Plan on VFR conditions at the TAF sites. An increase in low-level
moisture will spread from central/eastern Tennessee north/northeast
toward LEX overnight. This will bring scattered rain showers and a
lower ceiling. Though, bases should remain VFR 4-6 kft. Elsewhere,
plan on mainly high clouds and dry conditions. Light/variable
winds overnight will gradually take on a SW to W direction
tomorrow after the passage of a weak frontal boundary.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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