Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 190503
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 952 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014

Shower activity continues throughout portions of central Kentucky
this evening, especially in a north-south oriented line from
Scott/Harrison to Clinton counties and locations eastward (outside
of this forecast area). A secondary east-west oriented line has
developed with Taylor through Edmonson counties seeing the bulk of
the light rain associated with this line. The N-S line will continue
moving off toward the north and east with the E-W line following
suit. However, a secondary wave of rain is expected during the
overnight hours as a surface low, currently over Mississippi, pushes
north and eastward as well. The bulk of the rain will be found
across the southeastern portions of the forecast area, stretching up
into the Bluegrass region by Saturday morning. Dry air aloft has
already begun to push its way in overhead but the 00Z observed
sounding out of BNA continues to show copious amounts of low- to
mid-level moisture. PWATs are around 1.5 inches and confined to
under the 500mb level. While light to moderate rain is expected
across the south and east overnight, this should be welcoming, given
how dry conditions have been recently in portions of central
Kentucky so little to no impacts with respect to flooding is
expected at this time. Rest of the forecast remains on track with
minimal fluctuations in the temperatures through tomorrow morning,
thanks to the cloud cover.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014

Clouds and rain combined with an upper trough and weak inverted sfc
trough over the region have kept us unseasonably cool for mid July
today.  The upper trough will be slow to move out of the region and
will continue to provide rain chances to the area through Sat
night.  Perhaps a more significant wave may bring the best coverage
of showers and perhaps an isld rumble of thunder late tonight into
Sat morning mainly east of I-65.  While most locations will receive
under a quarter inch of precip from rains tonight, some locations in
the Lake Cumberland region may see up to a half inch of rainfall.
Behind this morning wave of rain, additional isld to scattered
showers will follow for Sat afternoon and Sat night although they
will gradually become fewer and shift eastward as the upper trough
moves eastward.

Temperatures will be a challenge for this forecast period with
unseasonably cool temps likely to continue.  Low temps tonight
should hold in the upper 50s and lower 60s...not dropping much from
today`s highs.  For Saturday, expect high temps in the 70s over most
locations assuming we get at least some breaks in the clouds during
the afternoon hours.  If low clouds stick around, we could very well
be cooler for Sat afternoon much like today.  Sat night lows should
range throughout the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014

An upper level trough will sit over the region Sunday. Showers and
storms will continue Sunday with the best chance for precipitation
across east central Kentucky. These storms will become more numerous
in the afternoon as a shortwave dives through the trough. These
storms should dissipate in the evening with dry conditions expected
overnight.

For the first half of the next work week the ridge across the
western CONUS will amplify and build eastward somewhat. This will
shift the trough over our area off to the east. The better chance
for showers and storms will shift east as well. However, east
central Kentucky could still see a few afternoon storms Monday and
Tuesday as they are on the edge of the upper level ridge. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry as the storms dissipate
around sunset. Chances for precipitation Wednesday are a bit more in
question as we will be in between the storms to the east and a cold
front diving down from the northwest. Will continue to carry slight
to chance pops. As for temperatures, they will warm up during this
time frame. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s Monday through
Wednesday with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The aforementioned front will move through the area sometime during
the Wednesday night through Thursday time frame. This will bring a
better chance for storms as well as a bit of a cool down. Highs on
Thursday will range from the lower to upper 80s from north to south.
Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

A rather complex TAF forecast in store as a rather unusual pattern
continues to remain in place across the Ohio Valley.  An area of low
pressure continues to spin to the south of the region across
Mississippi, which has spread copious amounts of low-level moisture
into Kentucky.  This moisture and incoming lift has resulted in MVFR
to IFR cigs along with associated MVFR/IFR vsbys in mist/light fog.

These restrictions will continue through the remainder of the
overnight hours into at least Saturday morning.  Confidence in IFR
restrictions is highest at KLEX, as they will be in the better
low-level moisture axis.  KSDF and KBWG will remain on the edge of
drier air to the west, but still think another slug of moisture
arriving towards dawn will keep conditions MVFR, possibly even IFR
at times in the heavier mist/light rain.  Things will be slow to
improve through the day on Saturday, but KSDF and KBWG will be the
first to return to VFR as drier air finally works in from the west.
KLEX will likely remain at least MVFR throughout much of the day,
perhaps improving to VFR by the late afternoon hours.  Winds through
the day will be generally light out of the east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD





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