Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 040751
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
251 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 1151 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

A large area of low clouds will move through the region today, with
the back edge of the clouds slowly progressing across the LMK CWA
from northwest to southeast. Highs will range from the mid 30s to
around 40.

By tonight skies will be clear and winds light as a ridge of high
pressure moves through. Temperatures will tumble into the lower and
middle 20s.

On Friday a cold front will cross the area, but it will be very weak
and starved of moisture. Only some high clouds are expected. High
temperatures will mostly be in the middle 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

General weak surface ridging and a blocked Gulf will provide us with
benign weather through Sunday. A clipper will cross the Great Lakes
Saturday night/Sunday but its deep moisture will stay to our north.
High temperatures over the weekend will be around 50.

Another clipper will dive into the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
and cross the Great Lakes Sunday night-Monday night as a deep upper
trof digs into the eastern United States. Tuesday-Wednesday it
should lift off to the northeast.

This clipper will be much stronger with better upper support than
the previous one and will have a much larger pool of deep moisture
to work with, resulting in precipitation chances Sunday night
through Tuesday night. The precipitation should start out as mostly
light rain Sunday night and Monday, then transition to light snow
Monday night through Tuesday night as colder air gets pulled in from
central Canada. Given currently progged temps and QPF, some light
snow accumulations will be possible.

High temperatures on Monday should be in the 40s, but by Wednesday
we won`t be getting out of the 20s with lows that morning in the
teens (or colder).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1153 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

The main question for the TAFS overnight into the morning hours will
be how much ceilings will lower and when. Obs to the north show MVFR
ceiling continue to creep closer to SDF and LEX. These two sites are
expected to lower to MVFR overnight, though they should stay above
fuel alternate. BWG is more of a question mark as a break in the
clouds is actually headed towards the site at this time. However,
after a couple hour break, lower clouds may move back in. All sites
should improve to VFR by mid day and stay VFR into the evening.
Winds early this morning will remain out of the west to WNW and
could be a bit gusty occasionally. They should relax towards
sunrise.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........EER


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