Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 180805
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

An upper level low currently centered over eastern Oklahoma will
lift to the northeast today and swing across the Lower Ohio Valley.
Moisture will be on the increase today as this system moves in. Rain
showers associated with this system will begin to move in this
morning and move north though mid afternoon. The latest guidance
keeps most of the rain in central Kentucky. There is also a bit of
discrepancy in how great the coverage of showers will be. The
GFS/NMM/ARW would suggest coverage would be fairly decent across
central KY. However, the NAM/RAP keep most of the rain to the east
and do not show much in the way of shower activity across central
KY. Because of this uncertainty, have capped pops at 50%. Showers
will move off to the east this evening with dry weather then
expected on Sunday as high pressure and upper level ridging begin to
build in.

Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday with the cloud
cover and shower. However, they should still top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Lows tonight will be mild, dropping into the mid to
upper 40s. Highs Sunday will be bounce back into the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Upper level ridging will continue building across the region Sunday
night into Monday. Well above normal temperatures will continue.
Lows Monday morning will be in the 40s. They will then rebound
quickly with highs topping out in the lower 70s in most locations on
Monday. This looks to be the warmest day of the extended period.

Monday night through Tuesday night a strong upper level low will
swing across the Gulf Coast states. To the north, another weaker
wave will swing across the Great Lakes region and lower Ohio Valley.
The latest model runs do show these two features trying to phase,
which would lead to a bit better chance for rain Tuesday for our
region. This best chance for rain currently looks to be during the
day Tuesday with precipitation slowly moving eastward Tuesday night.

There should be a brief period of dry weather before a warm front
moves north across the region Thursday bringing a chance for shower.
However, the better chance for rain and some storms will be Friday
as a strong cold front approaches and moves through. Soundings do
show some decent instability will develop with this system, so have
added in the mention of thunderstorms to the forecast.

In the wake of the Friday system, we should see a decent cool down.
After highs in the mid to upper 60s the rest of the week, Saturday`s
highs look to top out in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1214 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Upper level low out over NE TX will move northeastward toward KY
during the forecast period.  Current forecast has this upper level
low crossing Kentucky by Saturday evening.  Clouds will be on the
increase overnight with VFR cigs/vsbys expected.  Ceilings will
lower throughout the morning on Saturday.  New data coming in
tonight is less pessimistic with widespread low ceilings and vsbys
for Saturday.  Current thinking is that we`ll see ceilings drop
toward the MVFR/VFR thresholds by late morning with scattered
showers being possible through the afternoon at all the TAF sites.
Winds at the terminals will remain generally light out of the
southwest.

The latest data does show ceilings dropping toward the IFR/MVFR
threshold by late Saturday afternoon and evening at KSDF and KLEX.
For now, have trended the late end of the forecast in that direction.


&&

.Climate...
Issued at 304 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2016

Record temperatures for the next few days. Have noted with a ** sign
the records are forecast to fall with this forecast package.

Louisville:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 56 (1882)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     74 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     76 (2016)
**Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 51 (1878)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     70 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 61 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     71 (1992*)

Lexington:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 50 (1971*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     75 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 54 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     72 (2016*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1997)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     71 (1874)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     70 (1922)

Bowling Green:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 53 (1994*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     73 (1994*)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     75 (2014*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1897)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     75 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1961*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     74 (1922)

Frankfort:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 51 (1939)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     76 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 47 (1949)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     73 (2016)
**Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 47 (1906)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     72 (1997)
**Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 49 (1935*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     72 (1922)

* means most recent occurrence, record occurred in previous years as
  well

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
Aviation.....MJ
Climate...RJS/EER


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