Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 311559
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1159 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE AROUND 1.3
INCHES...QUITE A BIT LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AMDAR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP AT 500 MB. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE PW
THAN WHAT THE GOES SOUNDER HAS. WITH THE DRYING OUT...MULTIPLE
MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON POPS
FOR ALL BUT OUR NORTHERN STRIPE OF COUNTIES IN INDIANA. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH LOUISVILLE METRO GETTING TO THE UPPER 80S
AND THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN SPOTS.  THINK WE
MAY SEE MORE DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
YESTERDAY, SO WILL CONTINUE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG MENTION BUT
DON`T THINK FOG SHOULD BECOME DENSE OR WIDESPREAD.  FOG SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN.  RIDGING WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND INHIBIT CONVECTION COVERAGE A LITTLE MORE
THAN YESTERDAY.  THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE AN ISLD SHOWER OR
STORM LOOK TO BE SOUTHERN INDIANA OR NORTH CENTRAL KY WHERE CAPPING
MAY BE WEAKER.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE
MIDDLE 80S.

TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ANY CONVECTION ENDING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
THE REGION WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP NOTED IN SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP TUES DRY.  LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.  HIGHS ON TUES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LIKELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER AND THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE 31.00Z GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AS
READINGS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON. LOOKING
AT SOME OF THE EXTENDED ENSEMBLE MOS DATA...THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...AND A FEW MID 90 READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS AND URBAN CORES THOSE DAYS. PLAN
ON MILD TO MUGGY MORNINGS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

A WEAK CAP AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS FOR THE MAJORITY OF FOLKS MOST
DAYS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
/MID 60S/...COULDN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. FOR
CONTINUITY...KEPT A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND...A MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWER/STORMS...THOUGH WITH NO
REAL FORCING MECHANISM OR STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE. A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME LIGHT BR AT BWG WILL BE THE MAIN TAF CONCERN.  WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BWG HAS DIPPED INTO THE IFR CAT AND
MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  WINDS WILL BECOME
SWW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED.  A
STRAY SHOWER/STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
FEEL THAT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.  SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........RJS
SHORT TERM.....AMS
LONG TERM......ZBT
AVIATION.......AMS


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