Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 220659

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Basically a persistence forecast with ever stronger ridging at the
surface and aloft. Autumnal equinox on tap today at 10:21 AM EDT/
9:21 AM CDT, but temps will continue to be more typical of summer
through the end of the work week, and then some. Highs continue to
overachieve, so will bump just a degree or two above MOS consensus,
putting most locations at or just above 90 each day. Dewpoints are
being massaged to the low end given decent dry air mix-down
potential, and that will keep humidity levels low enough that the
heat index will be just below the actual temp. However, the benefits
of low humidity will be offset by strong sun and weak winds.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Friday Night - Sunday Night...

Upper ridge will hold on through the weekend, maintaining summertime
temps especially for daytime highs. We don`t really get the ridge
axis far enough east for any substantial moisture return until late
Sunday, so humidity levels will remain reasonable and min temps
should run just slightly above normal.

Monday - Wednesday...

Low confidence forecast as the models struggle to find run-to-run
consistency with a strong upper low digging into the central CONUS.
GFS and ECMWF have switched roles, with the 00Z Euro as the more
progressive solution. Will continue to lean a little toward
whichever is slower, given the amplified eastern CONUS ridge and its
blocking potential. Confidence is too low to key on any one day for
the highest POPs, so will carry a 20-30 POP on Monday and mainly
slight chances beyond that. Whenever the fropa does happen, will
knock temps back down to climo or just slightly below, but not too
cool if the progressive model trend continues.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Ridging and a dry atmosphere will keep winds light and skies mostly
clear through the TAF period, with the exception of transient fog
banks forming and dissipating at BWG early this morning.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
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