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000
FXUS63 KLMK 252349
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
749 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   A few rain showers are possible on Friday, with light
    precipitation totals (less than 0.10") generally expected. A
    stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon.

*   Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of
    the southwest at times.

*   Rain chances return early next week, but above normal
    temperatures persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Quiet weather continues across the region this afternoon with mostly
sunny skies present across much of the Ohio Valley. Latest visible
satellite imagery shows convective debris cirrus streaming across
southwestern IN and western KY, with this area of high clouds
expected to gradually push eastward later this afternoon as
convection continues across the central Plains. Surface high
pressure currently located over southern Ontario continues to allow
dry northeast low-level flow into central KY and southern IN, and
this has also resulted in a fairly noticeable north-south gradient
in temperatures this afternoon. As we head toward sunset tonight,
expected increasingly filtered sunshine, especially west of I-65,
with dry and quiet weather continuing through the evening hours.

Tonight, dry weather is expected to continue across much of the
area, with the sfc-850 mb layer remaining fairly dry below
increasing mid-level moisture. Would expect skies to be clear enough
and winds to remain light enough for another decent radiational
cooling setup across portions of southern IN and the KY Bluegrass,
though temperatures are generally expected to be warmer tonight
compared to last night and this morning. By the pre-dawn hours
Friday, a deeper fetch of moisture will start to enter southwestern
portions of the CWA as a warm front begins to lift through the
region. While initial radar returns will likely evaporate within the
dry low-levels, a chance of showers is expected across the Pennyrile
by around sunrise tomorrow.

Tomorrow, increased cloud cover and a few rain showers are expected
as the aforementioned warm front lifts across the region. By no
means will Friday be a washout, as precipitation chances should
remain fairly confined to the zone of deepest moisture and
isentropic lifting in the vicinity of the front. Temperatures will
generally be warmer on Friday, with temporarily reduced temperatures
expected in the vicinity of the front where there should be greater
cloud cover. Highs tomorrow should be in the 70s in most locations,
although a few 80 degree readings would be most likely across
southern and SW Kentucky. Initially, precipitation chances should be
forced by broad lifting along the warm front, though increased
instability behind the warm front means that an isolated rumble of
thunder cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon, though severe
impacts are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday Night through Sunday Night...

Warm front lifting northward will take most of its precip solidly
north of the Ohio River. Still some uncertainty in the timing and an
outside chance that we see isolated convection to the south of the
warm front. Therefore will hold on to a 20% chance,

The balance of the weekend will be warm and breezy, with temps more
in line with late May or early June. The main summer component that
will be missing is humidity, as dewpoints stay in the mid/upper 50s.
and a subsidence layer from 850-700mb will keep a lid on any
convection. Tight pressure gradient will yield breezy conditions,
with S-SW winds at a solid 15-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph each
afternoon.

Weakening cold front starts to advance from the Plains Sunday night,
but will only bring a slight chance for showers and storms into
areas west of I-65 in the pre-dawn hours of Monday.

Monday through Wednesday...

Early next week, the pattern will deamplify as the deep upper low
over the Plains lifts into Canada and the southeastern CONUS ridging
starts to break down. This will allow a cold front to drop SE into
the Ohio Valley, brining a good chance for showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms. Weak lapse rates and weakening shear will
work against severe potential, and organized convection in general.
Tue/Wed won`t be quite as warm as this weekend, but still above
normal for late April. Model consensus still yields rain chances
throughout the period, but expect that to come into better focus as
we get closer in time. The best chance for a dry day still appears
to be Tuesday, and even if it does rain each day it should not be a
washout.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid and
upper clouds will increase through tonight as a warm front begins to
lift into the region. Some light rain showers are expected to
develop near BWG around sunrise tomorrow, however ceilings will stay
above the VFR/MVFR threshold. It is less certain whether HNB/SDF
will see shower activity by early afternoon, but can`t rule it out.
Still, expect VFR throughout. Otherwise, surface winds will veer
from light NE this evening, to SE tomorrow morning, to SEE by
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...BJS