Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 260533
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
133 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Upper level ridging will remain in place across the region through
the short term period, shifting just a bit eastward through Friday
night.

For this afternoon, the main issue will be the heat and humidity.
Heat index values range from the mid 90s to around 100 and will stay
in this range for the next few hours. Isolated showers and storms
will be possible across far south central KY. Any that do form
should dissipate as the sun starts going down.

Through the overnight hours dry conditions are expected. Lows
tonight will drop into the lower to mid 70s. Some patchy fog may
develop as lows drop toward crossover temperatures early tomorrow
morning. Dewpoints this afternoon are still in the lower to mid 70s
in may areas, so lows will be close to those tonight. In addition,
winds should be lighter than last night.

Isolated showers and storms are possible again tomorrow, mainly
across west central KY and southern IN as the ridge starts to shift
east. Isolated pops will continue into Friday night, though some
models do try to initiate better coverage of storms early Saturday
morning along a frontal boundary draped across western KY. Will hold
off on going higher now and see how the models perform on the next
few runs.

Temps Friday will once again top out in the 90s with heat index
values nearing 100 in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The upper level ridge will continue to slowly shift eastward through
the weekend into early next week. As the ridging starts to break
down, precipitation chances will increase somewhat over the weekend.
This is particularly true across southern IN and portions of west
central KY on the periphery of the ridging. The best timing for
storms each day will be during the peak heating of the afternoon.

By Monday a quasi-stationary front will try to sink a bit further to
the south and bring a better chance for precipitation. For now, will
cap pops in the 30-40% range. Will keep a chance for storms Tuesday
through Thursday in the forecast. However, confidence decreases
further out as the forecast may somewhat hinge on what happens with
99L in the Atlantic and whether it does become a tropical
storm/hurricane.

Hot temperatures will continue into next week with highs in the 90s
and lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Boundary layer moisture combined with a clear sky and light/calm
wind should result in areas of fog by or before daybreak at the TAF
sites. For now, plan to keep SDF and LEX MVFR (high end at SDF and
low end at LEX), while taking BWG down to IFR at times. Conditions
will return to VFR after about 13 or 14z.

During the day Friday, expect scattered cumulus clouds from 3-5 kft
along with a variable light wind (3-6 kts) that should turn to an E
to NE direction during the day. Any storms in the afternoon over our
western forecast area in the late afternoon should be isolated with
no mention at BWG. No storms are expected at SDF and LEX.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........TWF


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