Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 161846
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
246 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Current surface analysis reveals a broad 1032mb high pressure system
in the Plains that extends well into the lower Ohio Valley. The
surface high is gradually moving eastward and will settle over the
region overnight. Visible satellite continues to show a scattered to
broken strato-cu field mainly along and east of I-65 where steep low
level lapse rates and higher 850mb moisture resides. Should see the
strato-cu field dissipate toward sunset as surface heating source
goes away.

The combination of clear skies, dry air and light winds tonight will
allow for good radiational cooling. We should see some of the
coolest temperatures of the season so far, with lows tomorrow
morning generally ranging from upper 30s to lower 40s. A few
sheltered valleys may see colder temperatures and even see some
patchy frost develop. Don`t think the frost will be widespread
enough to warrant a frost advisory, but have highlighted the frost
potential in a SPS.

Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be a few degrees warmer
compared to today, as slightly warmer air advects in from the
southwest around 850mb. Looks like the low levels of the atmosphere
tomorrow will be capped and drier, so skies should be mostly sunny
with only a few passing high clouds during the day. Expect another
cool night tomorrow as temperatures drop into the lower 40s under
good radiational cooling.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Quiet and dry weather will continue Wednesday into the weekend. Flow
aloft will transition from northwest to southwest as an upper level
ridge builds into the region. Warmer air aloft associated with the
ridge will allow temperatures to gradually warm into the weekend. An
upper level trough will dig into the central Plains by the weekend,
and begin to impact the lower Ohio Valley as early as Sunday. Long
range models have some timing differences, as expected, but forecast
reflects increased clouds and precipitation chances with the
approaching trough for that timeframe.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Current GOES-16 visible imagery shows diurnal few-sct statocumulus
clouds over west parts of central KY and south-central IN, with sct-
bkn clouds over eastern two-thirds of region. Bases are VFR and will
remain that way this afternoon. VFR conditions then expected through
remainder of forecast period. Clouds this afternoon will gradually
dissipate late this afternoon resulting in a clear/mostly clear sky
tonight and Tuesday. Northerly surface winds of 5-9 kts this
afternoon will become calm or light NE tonight, then SE to S around
5 kts Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
Aviation...TWF


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