Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 151418
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1018 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered to numerous light rain showers today as a cold front
  crosses the region.

* Unseasonably cool Monday through Wednesday, with subfreezing
  temperatures possible each morning.

* Precip chances return late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Per observations, cold front currently stretches along the Ohio
River with a few locations on the Kentucky Mesonet into the low/mid
50s with low 60s across central and southern KY. Boundary will
slowly push south through the day and as colder air filters in
behind the front and aloft. This will keep low stratus and light
rain and drizzle around through at least the first half of the day
north of the Parkways with a few scattered rain showers, and maybe an
isolated rumble of thunder across the south and east this afternoon.
Temperatures will also turn cooler as the front moves through during
the day. Went ahead and adjusted the current PoP and weather grids
to account for drizzle as well as lower some of the PoPs for
scattered showers later today. Products and forecast are in the
process of being updated...

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Earlier convection now weakening and departing central Kentucky to
the south and east. Main sfc cold front is still draped across
southern Indiana and Illinois, and will progress slowly SE across
Kentucky during the day today. The stronger forcing and deep
moisture that were in place Thursday are shunted well to the SE
today, but PWATs are still just shy of 1 inch and there is modest
lift associated with the front. A snapshot at any given time this
afternoon will likely show no more than scattered showers and a few
stray T-storms, but more of the areas will at least pick up
measurable rain at some point. Limited recovery in temps in the face
of cloud cover and cold advection, but most locations will top out
in the 60s with some hint of falling temps in the afternoon.

Precip will end fairly quickly behind the actual cold front. The
cooler air arrives in earnest tonight, knocking our readings back
down to near climo. Lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s are actually
close to mid-March normals, but colder air is on the way later in
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Synopsis...The Rex blocking configuration of upper low over the
Desert Southwest and anomalous ridge building across the Pacific
Northwest/Southwest Canada will help amplify the flow over the
eastern half of the country as a parade of shortwave troughs carve
larger troughing. This regime will facilitate cold and stable air
advection over the Ohio Valley through the first half of next week.
By Wednesday, the mid-level pattern will become progressive as a
northern-stream trough breaks the blocking and the upper low opens
up as a wave and tracks towards the central US. As a result, rain
chances will be on the increase late next week.

Model Evaluation/Confidence...There is fairly high confidence in the
large-scale pattern evolution through the middle of next week
regarding the amplifying trough over the East CONUS and the timing
of the shortwave troughs. Confidence lowers towards the end of next
week with the position and intensity of the southern-stream trough.
Such differences could impact precipitation chances over the
forecast area via how far north moisture is advected and the degree
of lifting.

Saturday - Sunday...Temperatures will slowly cool down over the
weekend under dry weather conditions. Saturday will experience some
clearing with winds quickly shifting to the southwest as a strong
shortwave drops from the Midwest. Sunday will experience some upper
clouds as a secondary, dry cold front moves in from the north.

Monday - Wednesday...The axis of the aforementioned strong wave will
swing by the region on Monday carrying gusty northwesterly winds and
moderately colder airmass. Some models are still hinting at a low
chance of mixed precipitation over the Bluegrass on Monday which is
supported by strong dynamics and low freezing levels. Lows on Monday
night/Tuesday morning are still on track to reach sub-freezing
values (mid 20s) with a slow warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday
given a wind shift to the south/southwest and sunny skies.

Thursday - Friday...Although there is uncertainty in the synoptic
features and specific details, it is likely that temperatures remain
slightly above normal with precipitation chances on the rise.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions at the terminals in central Kentucky at this time,
with mid-level ceilings and light SW winds. Cold front is draped
across southern Indiana, with an IFR stratus deck just behind it
already into HNB.

Cold front will move slowly to the SE as the day progresses. Ahead
of the front we can`t rule out a few showers, but we`ll limit that
mention to VCSH as restrictions to cig/vis will be minimal. Once the
front pushes through look for stratus ceilings, which will quickly
drop into MVFR below 2000 feet. Might even see some IFR cig/MVFR
vis this afternoon at LEX, BWG, and especially RGA. Look for winds
to diminish this evening, with VFR conditions as the stratus finally
dissipates.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...ALL
AVIATION...RAS


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