Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 171054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

In the near term, IR and 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery reveal
mostly clear skies across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Some patchy low clouds and fog were noted across the eastern third
of the forecast area.  The main forecast concern this morning will
be fog development.  Current indications are that we should continue
to see fog develop over the region.  We feel that the most extensive
fog will be across southern Kentucky later this morning.  We will
continue to monitor conditions over the next few hours.  Will be
issuing a Special Weather Statement shortly to highlight the fog
potential this morning.  If fog grows more extensive, a Dense Fog
Advisory may be required in the next few hours.  Low temperatures
will cool into the mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to the
lower 50s in the south.

For today, a quick moving mid-level trough axis is forecast to slide
through the region.  Model soundings are still quite dry with this
feature, but enough moisture will be present to produce slightly
more cloud cover than we saw on Tuesday.  Some very light sprinkles
may be possible, but overall, the day looks to be dry.  Stuck close
to the weighted model (WModel) blend here with afternoon highs
warming into the upper 60s north of the I-64 corridor with upper 60s
to the lower 70s across much of Kentucky.

For Tonight and Thursday, mostly clear skies are expected to return
to the region tonight.  Again have stuck close to the weighted model
guidance here with lows cooling into the lower 50s in most areas.  A
few rural locations may drop back into the upper 40s.  Dry and mild
conditions are expected for Thursday with highs warming into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

Dry weather will continue Thursday night through Saturday with high
pressure ridging in from the northeast. Aloft heights will build
into the weekend. This will bring warming temperatures for the first
portion of the long term. Highs Friday will be in the mid to upper
70s with highs Saturday in the lower 80s.

Rain chances will be on the increase Saturday night into Sunday as a
low pressure system drops into the Great Lakes region and then pulls
off to the northeast. This will eventually drag a cold front through
the forecast area. However, there are some differences in the long
term models on how fast the front moves through. For now will keep
Monday dry, but if the front slows down there will be a chance for
some lingering showers across east central KY.

High pressure will build in behind the front bringing clearing
skies. Aloft the area will remain in northwest flow. Cooler air will
once again settle back into the region next week. Highs will drop
back into the lower 70s, with highs in the 60s possible by
Wednesday. Lows will drop back into the 50s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

Low stratus deck has developed over portions of the region which has
limited widespread fog development.  Where the status has not
formed, visibilities are generally down around 1SM or less.  The
terminals have been more impacted with low stratus with IFR/MVFR
ceilings and mainly MVFR visibilities.  We expect the IFR/MVFR
conditions to continue through about 17/14Z and then we should see
the clouds mix out and conditions revert back to VFR.  VFR
conditions are expected to continue through the daytime hours today
with light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ




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