Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 081135
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
Clouds will continue to increase and bases will lower throughout the
day. Light to calm winds early this morning will increase out of the
southwest to around 10 mph or so by this afternoon, as a weak
surface cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. The
bust potential here will depend on total cloud cover.
The cold front is on schedule to push through the region late this
afternoon and through the evening hours, with light rain trailing
the front. QPF amounts remain very light and the latest guidance
suggests that not everyone will see rain tonight, so kept PoPs
around 40 percent. Winds will become northwesterly behind the front,
with speeds of 5-10 mph for the overnight hours.
Some cold air will filter into the area tonight as the rain departs
and skies begin to clear. Expect temperatures to range from middle
20s across our far northern Indiana counties to middle and upper 30s
across south-central Kentucky by daybreak Sunday. Temperatures will
be a little cooler Sunday, with afternoon highs ranging from upper
40s to middle 50s. Skies will be mostly sunny with light winds.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
Current large trough over the Central Plains looks to stretch out,
with a weak vortmax having just passed us and heading southeast
Sunday night and the main part of the trough hanging back over the
Red River Valley. The 00Z GFS indicate a couple of low centers
forming out of the latter feature, but neither looks to bring precip
into our region through Tuesday.
A northern stream system looks to change that dry pattern Tuesday
night. Whether it phases with the southern stream is still up for
debate in the models, but some kind of frontal passage is looking
more likely. A look at cross sections, indicates a brief surge in
moisture, which should be enough to take advantage of the lift with
this front to produce some rains. AllBlend pops are high-end chance
to likely range, not too far off previous forecast.
Once that front clears us, we look to cool off and dry out again for
the end of the work week. Temperatures at the start of the period
and ahead of that front will be above normal, then will fall to a
below normal for the rest.
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 635 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
High clouds will continue to increase today with bases slowly
lowering as a cold front approaches from the west. Shallow fog near
BWG will dissipate a little after sunrise. Light winds early this
morning will increase out of the southwest throughout the day,
getting into the 7-11 knot range by this afternoon. The cold frontal
passage will bring northwesterly winds during the early evening
hours. This will be followed by MVFR cigs, particularly at SDF and
LEX, with perhaps some very light rain.