Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 292246
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

It has been quite pleasant for late July today with current
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the region and dewpoints
in the lower 50s. As of 3 pm the only potential record low maximum
temperature is at Frankfort. The current temperature there is 72 and
the record is 74, set in 1994 (and previous years).

The upper level low will remain in place for the short term period.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in from the
west tonight. Dewpoints are expected to start rising slowly tonight
into tomorrow, though they should still only be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. We will see good radiational cooling tonight with mostly
clear skies and light and variable to calm winds. Lows will be a bit
warmer than last night, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60. Some
patchy fog may be possible in river valleys tonight. Below are the
current record and forecast low temperatures for tomorrow.

                Record      Forecast

Bowling Green: 53, 1965     58
    Frankfort: 50, 1965     55
   Louisville: 55, 1965     61
    Lexington: 51, 1965     58

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s expected. As a wave drops through the upper
level trough it could bring a few showers to the far northern border
of our forecast area, so added in slight chance pops there. These
will only last for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected. Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature continued upper-level troughing over the region, which will
slowly begin to break down through the long term period.  This will
mean a gradual warmup through the extended, as highs climb back
closer to normal values.

Much of the long term period will remain dry, except perhaps from
Friday into Saturday.  Another reinforcing shortwave trough will
dive south into the Ohio Valley, helping to once again carve out the
upper low over the region.  This cold core aloft may be enough to
spark some mainly diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  However, deep moisture will continue to remain
limited to the Southeast, as PWATs over the Ohio Valley will only be
around 1.25 inches.  So despite the upper-level support, this lack
of moisture coupled with a very disorganized surface pressure
pattern should mean convection will struggle to become too
widespread.

As mentioned above, temperatures through the period will slowly
begin to moderate.  Highs in the mid 80s will persist late this week
into the weekend, before temperature begin to climb back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s by early next week.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

High pressure building from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic will
provide us with mostly clear/partly cloudy VFR skies and light
west/northwest breezes.  Dew points may bump up a couple of degrees
tonight so there could be some MVFR BR at BWG and LEX around sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........13





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