Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 032000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

Main forecast concerns in the short term are sprinkles/clouds this
evening and temperatures. Overall, relatively benign weather in the
short term.

Stratus deck upstream associated with the advancing upper trough
axis will swing through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late
this afternoon and into the evening hours. 12z ILX sounding and HRRR
soundings for the area this evening show this stratus to be about 50
to maybe 100 mb thick and with weak lift present this evening, there
could be a few sprinkles across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. HRRR simulated reflectivity has been consistent showing a
thin band over the area between 4 and 10p, so have maintained slight
chance of sprinkles in the forecast. Winds will remain gusty to near
20 to perhaps 25 mph at times through the evening as well with
temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s.

Surface high pressure moves across the area Thursday and Thursday
night, setting up a cool but dry day. Plan on highs in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees. We`ll have some morning stratus around but as
the high advances east, this should erode and push east giving way
to some sun by afternoon. Thursday night lows look to fall into the
mid 20s with mostly clear skies and lighter winds.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term period is precipitation
chances and temperatures next week.

Friday through the weekend the region will be under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. A couple weather
systems look to pass well south and north of the area, but southern
Indiana and central Kentucky will generally see seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions.

By late Sunday night into Monday, a surface low and anomalously deep
upper trough looks to swing through the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. This will spill colder air down into the area and chances for
precipitation. Depending on temperatures, rain may mix with or
changeover to snow Monday. As the upper trough hangs overhead and
more cold air arrives Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures would
be cold enough to support all snow. The GFS 850 mb temperatures are
considerably colder than the ECMWF and GEM 3.12z solutions. A model
consensus trended downward from the previous forecast, with highs
Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 20s to low 30s and morning
temperatures in the teens. This may trend further down if the GFS
solutions end up verifying. Precipitation chances were brought up
into the 30 to 50 percent range Monday through Wednesday.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1217 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

Currently, the TAF sites are in the dry slot in the post frontal
wake.  Mainly clear skies were noted and VFR conditions are expected
through the afternoon hours.  Main forecast issue will be surface
winds.  Gusty southwest winds at 15-20kts and gusts up 25 kts at
KBWG and up to 30-35kts at KSDF/KLEX will be possible...resulting in
cross winds on the parallel runways at KSDF.

Shield of low clouds to the northwest will continue to move
southeastward and into KSDF/KBWG by 03/21-22Z and then into KLEX by
04/00Z or so.  Ceilings this evening look to remain in the VFR
category with heights around 5Kft AGL.  Surface winds will decrease
with the arrival of the lower cloudiness in the 03/21-22Z time
frame.  We expect winds to back to the west and speeds should
decrease into the 8-12kt range and then into the 6-8kt range for the
overnight period.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
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