Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 070157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
857 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 857 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017

Evening satellite data showing clouds lingering over our far SE
sections this evening.  Upstream, some lower clouds are starting to
move in.  So the mostly clear skies that we`re seeing currently will
likely become more cloudy as the night goes on.  So have made just a
few adjustments to the cloud grids for the overnight period and gave
a quick refinement to the hourly T/Td grids.  Also added a few snow
flurries to areas mainly north of the I-64 corridor for early
Thursday and into the mid-morning hours.


.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017

Partly to mostly cloudy skies and chilly temps will continue tonight
and Thu.  Lows tonight are expected to drop into the mid 20s to
around 30 with variable cloudiness.  Late tonight into Thu morning,
a better shortwave may provide a thicker blanket of clouds in our
area with any light precip expected to stay to our north though a
flurry may still be possible in southern IN.  Thursday will be
partly cloudy with highs limited to the 30s in most locations as the
core of a colder airmass sinks in.  Thursday night, low temps will
bottom out in the upper teens/lower 20s.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017

Friday - Saturday...

A chilly end to the week is expected as a broad upper level trough
remains over the eastern U.S. Highs both Fri/Sat will range
through the 30s to right around 40 with lows Fri night in the
lower 20s.

The main weather challenge for this weekend will be a potent clipper
system pushing through the Midwest.  While the main portion of this
weather system will stay focused to our north, the latest models
agree that light precipitation will be possible mainly over southern
IN into portions of central/east central KY Sat midday through early
evening.  Model soundings indicate a period of good saturation into
the dendritic growth zone with steep low level lapse rates.  This
would favor a showery regime with either snow showers or a mix of
rain/snow possible depending on exact timing and boundary layer
temps.  Will need to better refine these details as this event gets
into the higher res models in the next few runs.  At this point,
southern IN into the northern Bluegrass region north of the I-64
corridor look to see the best chance for a light accumulating snow
Sat with up to a half inch of snow accum possible.  Other areas
along and south of I-64 are likely to see at least some snow in
the air on Sat but it may mix with rain limiting any accums.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday will be another cold day with highs in the 30s before the
upper trough finally weakens and moves east a bit.  Monday we`ll see
a warm up into the 40s before another cold front dives into the
Midwest bringing a mix of rain/snow to the region late Mon through
Tues.  Long range models vary on precip coverage and extend
southward so have kept POPs low with this system.  Colder air is
likely behind it though pulling temps back below normal for mid week.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF period.  A weak mid-
level wave will push through the region late tonight and early
Thursday.  As of right now, this will bring an increase in cloud
cover to the region with ceilings possibly dropping to around 5000
ft AGL.  Winds will shift to the west-northwest Thursday morning with
speeds of 10-13kts expected.




Short Term...AMS
Long Term....AMS
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