Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 190157
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
957 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
Updated the forecast to get rid of the gusty winds and lower
overnight t-storm chances to slight. A thicker cloud cover has
moved in ahead of the approaching front which has helped squash wind
gusts along with the nocturnal inversion. So far this evening,
convective development has been less than impressive. However, a
decent LLJ is still expected to kick up overnight and may enhance
convection coverage and intensity.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
In the near term, partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region
through the evening hours. A strong pressure gradient will lead to
gusty winds this afternoon with a decrease in the evening. Wind
gusts of 35 to 40 MPH will be possible over the next few hours.
Temperatures were solidly in the 80s across the region. Maximum
temps will likely top out in the 83 to 88 degree range. Bowling
Green will likely tie or break their record in the next hour or so,
but it will be close at Louisville. Temperatures this evening will
cool into the 70s.
For tonight, the main storm track will continue to be to our north
and west, but a weak front will advance toward the Ohio River
overnight. This front should spark a few showers and maybe a
thunderstorm or two overnight. The best chances will be across
southern Indiana and north of the BG/WK Parkways in KY. Lows will
remain mild overnight as a southwesterly flow remains established.
Lows look to drop into the upper 60s to near 70 in the urban
centers. This may result warm min temp records being broken
WARM MIN RECORDS FOR TONIGHT (10/19)
SDF 67 (1985)
LEX 65 (1985)
BWG 65 (1985)
FFT 64 (1905)
Mostly cloudy skies are expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night
as the front remains stalled out across the region. While stronger
jet dynamics remain north of the region, weak convergence along the
front will likely result in some diurnally driven convection. Wind
shear values are not overly impressive...nor is the quality of
moisture. A more potent mix of shear and instability looks to
reside further west and southwest of the region from the Ozarks into
southern MO during the afternoon hours where an episode of severe
weather looks very possible. A weak surface low will move across
the region Wednesday night along the stalled out front brining a
better chance of widespread (and much needed) rain to the region.
Highs Wednesday will like range from the upper 70s in the north to
the mid 80s in the south. Overnight lows Wednesday night will coo
into the lower-mid 60s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
Well advertised trough axis will shift through the region on
Thursday resulting in cloudy skies and widespread rainfall. This
unsettled weather will likely continue into Thursday night before
diminishing on Friday. A few showers and plenty of clouds will
likely stream through the region on Friday...especially in the east.
Some partial clearing may take place Friday night, through a weak
disturbance in the northwest flow aloft may keep a stratocumulus
deck in here for much of the night.
Highs Thursday will range from the upper 60s in the north to the
middle to upper 70s across the south. Lows Thursday night will cool
into the upper 40s and highs on Friday will be in the middle to
upper 50s. Friday night temperatures will be challenging depending
on cloud cover. We plan on sticking closer to the Euro solution
here with a bit more cloud cover expected and lows in the lower 40s.
It is possible that in some of our western areas that clearing may
commence. If so, some upper 30s will be possible along with some
very patchy frost.
High pressure will then build into the region for the weekend with
dry and cool weather. Highs Saturday will likely see a gradient
with highs in the mid-upper 50s in the east to the lower 60s in the
west. Southwest flow becomes more established by Sunday allowing
temps to warm back in the mid-upper 60s. Another weak frontal
boundary looks to pass through the region late Sunday. However,
limited moisture and very weak convergence look to limit things to
just an increase in clouds. Highs Monday and Tuesday will range
from the upper 60s to the lower 70s in the north to the lower-mid
70s across the far south.
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
Gusty SW winds are subsiding this evening as a mid deck of clouds
moves into the area. Thicker cloud cover will accompany an
approaching cold front tonight and Wed. The front is expected to be
rather slow moving keeping chances for convection confined to
SDF/LEX for this TAF period. SDF will likely see a few t-storms Wed
so did go ahead and include VCTS from 19-0Z. Not as confident at
LEX though so kept just VCSH. Cigs look to drop into the MVFR cat
during the early morning hours and last through around mid-late
morning Wed before lifting. Winds will remain out of the SW for
much of the TAF period with only a few gusts between 10-15 kts
expected Wed afternoon outside of convection.