Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 141100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Precip has continued to struggle against dry low-level air, but
finally we are seeing a smattering of light showers roughly along
and just south of the I-64 corridor. Better forcing and better
environment remain to the south, so still not expecting much, if any
further northward expansion. Have removed all thunder from the grids
through midday, but isolated thunder is still possible this
afternoon as lapse rates improve. Hi-res forecasts will be tweaked
but ZFP already has this well handled.


.Short Term (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Forecast confidence is actually the lowest in the near-term, as hi-
res models are continuing to struggle with the impact of an upper
shortwave swinging across the Ozarks. Spotty light precip continues
to break out over southern Illinois and western Kentucky and
Tennessee, but has not been able to blossom in either intensity or
coverage. Environment is a bit less favorable heading north and east
into central Kentucky, but even with dewpoints pushing 70 south of
the Parkways, we still have yet to see measurable precip.

Still expect an increase in coverage as the upper wave moves east
and the air mass continues to modify, but even scattered
showers/isolated T-storms is starting to seem generous. However,
even if we do scale back POPs, there should be enough cloud cover
for most of the day to limit max temps to the lower 80s across most
of the area.

Lingering precip over south-central and east-central KY this evening
will exit to the east, with dry conditions expected overnight and
continuing on Tuesday for all but far southern Kentucky. Warming
trend in overnight lows will continue, and high temps on Tuesday
could touch 90 for the first time in nearly two weeks.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...

Increasingly warm, muggy, and unsettled weather is expected through
the middle of the week. Deeper SW flow sets up on Wednesday as upper
ridging tries to build out of the Deep South. Will carry low chance
POPs in the warm advection pattern.

A strengthening upper shortwave passes well to our north on
Thursday, but develops enough of a negative tilt to support more
numerous and stronger storms ahead of its associated cold front. Not
expecting organized severe, but a few storms will produce heavy
rainfall and perhaps locally gusty winds. Temps will continue to
push 90 each afternoon, with mins solidly above climo in the humid
SW flow.

Friday - Sunday...

Weak front pushes through on Friday and gives way to a bubble of
high pressure for at least the first half of the weekend. Models
diverge after that as the ECMWF settles a broad upper trof over the
Great Lakes, while GFS is more progressive and brings another
disturbance in for Sunday. Low-confidence forecast, but for now will
have precip exiting on Friday and a dry day on Saturday, then just
slight chances Sat night into Sunday. Temps will run near normal for
this time of year.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Spotty light showers will be possible at all 3 TAF sites today,
though the day won`t be a washout. Better forcing from a slightly
stronger low-level jet will remain just south of the area, so
coverage and intensity of rainfall should both be greater extending
from TN into far south-central KY. BWG stands the best chance at
seeing brief MVFR vsbys in a shower from mid-morning into early
afternoon. Prevailing flying conditions are still likely to stay VFR
for the bulk of the day. Winds will remain light and variable.

Any lingering light precip should push east of the terminals by
early evening. This evening and the overnight hours look dry.
Shortwave troughing exits to the east tonight, as does some of the
deeper moisture. Low-level moisture will linger, however. Fog/low
stratus may be an issue Tuesday morning. Expect to see some stratus
lowering, with the lowest conditions at BWG. MVFR looks likely, with
IFR a definite possibility.




Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
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