Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 290505

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
105 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 540 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Continue to have a fairly moist atmosphere in place over the region,
with model precipitable waters in the 1.6-1.8" range, placing us
towards the top of climo for this time of year. That said, all we
have are some light rain showers/sprinkles moving northward across
central KY and southeast IN, with occasional heavier cells
developing and dropping down a lightning strike or two. Outside of
that shield have more isolated to scattered storms. Focus over the
next few hours for storm development will be in our Bluegrass
region, with peak heating occurring there now. Downdraft CAPEs are
much lower than at this time yesterday, so the threat for stronger
wind gusts is lower as well. The current gridded forecast is in
pretty good shape, just adjusted some for current obs and tried to
focus around 00Z to be more in the Bluegrass than other areas.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Isolated to scattered showers with a few lightning strikes have
developed this afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon into
the early evening, there could be some additional storm development.
Surface based instability has developed, but there is no well
defined trigger for storms. Models continue to try to develop too
much precipitation. So 20-40% pops for this afternoon look fairly
reasonable. No organized severe weather is expected, but isolated
stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall are not out of
the question. Showers and storms are then expected to wane through
the evening.

Another weak disturbance may lead to isolated shower/storm
development early tomorrow morning across north central KY and
southern IN. However, most location should stay dry through the
morning. From the late afternoon through evening hours, a weak front
will make its way through the lower Ohio Valley. Showers and storms
are expected to develop along this front in the afternoon and
accompany it as it crosses the area.

The front is not expected to bring much cooler air with it, but
Monday will see a slight drop in dewpoints. As high pressure builds
in, these should bring dry weather and clearing skies. The dry
weather looks to last into Monday night.

Temperatures will remain similar the next couple days with highs in
the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

The upper level pattern Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to remain
similar featuring a baggy, weak zonal flow with the stronger
shortwaves staying out to the west and north over the Plains states.
This should continue to provide above normal temperatures and
relatively dry conditions across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. Highs are forecast to top out in the mid/upper 80s with a
mild/muggy morning in the 60s to near 70.

By Thursday through the end of next week, the forecast models are
suggesting that a closed low over the Northern Plains and energy
coming out of the Rockies will form an elongated trough axis and
push it eastward toward the lower Ohio Valley. This feature could
act to funnel better moisture up through the deep South and sweep a
surface front across the area. Given the limited confidence and run
to run variability, will hold the model consensus POPs down to high-
end chance (40 to 50 percent) until guidance agrees on this idea
more. But it`s possible that the latter portions of next week could
be a bit more stormy than in the short term.

Temperatures are still expected to run above late May and early June
normals, especially at night where abundant low-level moisture may
hold readings up around 70.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

TAF weather will remain quiet with VFR conditions and winds under 10
knots expected through the period. A broken area of showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
early this evening coincident with a weak surface front, upper level
divergence, and diurnal instability. The front will bring winds
around to the northwest but at low speeds.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
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