Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 241644

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1244 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A dry cold front was sitting just to our north early this morning
and will move south through the region around sunrise.  This front
will usher in cooler, but seasonable temps for today.  Expect highs
to range from the mid to upper 60s over S. Indiana and much of
central KY and lower 70s over south central KY.

Tonight and Tues sfc high pressure will drop south into the Midwest
from Canada providing dry, cool weather to the Ohio Valley.  Expect
low temps tonight to drop back into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Some of the cooler, sheltered locations over southern Indiana and
east central KY could see some patchy frost early Tues morning. High
temps for Tues should range through the 60s under mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Wednesday - Thursday...

The next chance for rain looks to arrive for Wed night into early
Thu as a quick moving low pressure system drags a weak cold front
through the Ohio Valley.  Convection along this front looks to be
mainly showers and elevated t-storms with mainly scattered coverage
at best at this point.  Still it could provide up to a quarter inch
of rainfall to some locations.

Ahead of the front, temps on Wed look to warm solidly into the low
to mid 70s over central KY and upper 60s/lower 70s for S. Indiana.
Wed night lows will be mild in the mid to upper 50s, and highs for
Thurs will drop back into the 60s...maybe cooler if low clouds stick
around for much of the day.

Friday - Sunday...

Many questions still surround the forecast for the end of the week.
The 0Z GFS and GFS ensembles are still very optimistic pushing
another precipitation producing front through the region Fri
night/Sat while the 0Z ECMWF indicates the next rain chances will
come from a weak shortwave late Sunday.  The current NWS forecast
sides closer to the GFS/GFS ensembles with 20-30% rain chances for
Fri night/Sat although this is low confidence given the model

Temperatures should remain pretty typical of this time of year with
highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s/50s through the weekend.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Plan on VFR conditions through the TAF period. High pressure will
build across the Great Lakes, providing north to northeasterly flow
through this evening. Expect more easterly winds for Tuesday. Skies
will be mainly clear outside of occasional high cirrus.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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