Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 301714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH MONDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST EARLY
THIS MORNING. A SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST WHILE A GULF TROUGH WAS ADVANCING NORTHWARD. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A
WEAK COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF CIRRUS AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WERE KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FOR TODAY...THE LATEST NEAR TERM AND HI-RES MODEL DATA IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-65 THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OVERALL...COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO POPS WERE
PLACED IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...PEAKING BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM. A
STRONGER WIND GUST OR TWO MAY OCCUR GIVEN DCAPE AROUND 500
J/KG...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWATS AROUND
1.5 INCHES AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS TONIGHT...BUT COULDN`T RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY DRIER DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THOUGH GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S...A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN FOR MOST AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A WEATHER
PATTERN LARGELY CONTROLLED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUT CONTAINING
WEAK TRANSIENT WAVES WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE SHOWER/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.  ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM OVER THE COMING WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG TRIGGERS/FORCING.  USING A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, DECIDED TO KEEP TUES AND FRIDAY DRY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THINK THAT MOST DAYS WILL STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH
DAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THAT IF WE STAY
RELATIVELY DRY ALLOWING GROUND CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DRY AND THE
RIDGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH, MOST LOCATIONS COULD VERY WELL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME MID 90S
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF
TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES. ONE DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, MEANWHILE THE SECOND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OUT OF
THE GULF COAST STATES. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
LACK OF A STRONG TRIGGERING MECHANISM SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANY COVERAGE SHOULD DIMNISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SLACKENING
WINDS AND VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT THAT SOME FOG CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TOWARD DAWN, WITH BWG/LEX INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. LIMITING FACTOR TO GO LOWER WILL BE CLOUD COVER
UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP SDF AROUND THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD AROUND
DAWN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT STEADY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........ZBT
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........BJS


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