Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 261026
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015
Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015
A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015
A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.
Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.
Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.
Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015
Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015
A boundary stretched across central KY this morning is just to the
south of SDF and LEX. This boundary will lift slightly northward
overnight shifting winds to southerly at LEX for a time, but looks
to stay just south of SDF. A low pressure system will then drag a
cold front through this morning, shifting winds to northwesterly at
Ahead of the cold front a few storms may still be possible at SDF.
Have moved back the timing of the VCTS to 07Z. Any chance for
thunderstorms will quickly diminish this morning as the cold front
moves through. However, rain will continue through much of the day
at all sites.
VFR ceiling will deteriorate as precipitation begins today. Expect
ceilings to eventually lower to low end MVFR or IFR. They should
improve late this afternoon into the evening as rain moves off to