Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 260119
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
919 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Updated the forecast to remove shower wording in some of the eastern
locations from earlier this evening.  The rest of the night looks to
be dry as the departing upper low continues to move up the east
coast.  Skies will become partly cloudy or mostly clear overnight.
Low temps still look to range through the low to mid 50s.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Rain is finally tapering off as the stacked low pressure over
southern Ohio continues to pull away from the area, giving way to a
more mixy westerly flow in the low levels. Still seeing patchy light
rain across the Bluegrass region in Kentucky, but expect that to end
by sundown as the low continues to exit the region.

Expect benign weather tonight and Friday as shortwave ridging aloft
builds across the Ohio Valley. Strong mid-level cap will develop
with 700mb temps rising to near 9C, so no worries about convection
on Friday afternoon even with sfc dewpoints creeping back up toward
60 and steepening lapse rates above and below the cap.

Warm front well to our north will fire convection later in the day,
but will limit POPs in the Ohio Valley to 20-30% Fri night as the
cap guides most of the storms across central Indiana into Ohio.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...Organized Severe Weather Potential Late Saturday and Sunday of
the Holiday Weekend...

An active and potentially volatile weather pattern may be setting up
for late Saturday into Sunday for the lower OH Valley. The pattern
suggests one or more bowing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are
possible with wind damage.

Surface dewpoints on Saturday will rise to near 70F as the strong
mid-level cap limits the depth of the boundary layer. By late
afternoon, expect convective initiation somewhere over the mid-
Mississippi Valley. With strong instability and unidirectional
shear, expect this to organize into a cold-pool-dominated MCS, which
will push quickly to the east or ESE across some part of the Ohio
Valley through the night. Main threat will be damaging winds, but
very strong mid-level lapse rates will also support a large hail
threat. Most likely track will be dependent on just where convection
initiates, with small but significant model differences in both
track and timing. However, strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to roll through part or all of the area at some point on Saturday
night.

We looked at CIPS analogs for this pattern, and a mean composite for
the top 15 analogs suggest an axis of heavy rain and severe weather
(mainly wind damage and large hail) roughly from St. Louis to
Louisville (but with definite spread among individual past events).

Confidence in the Sunday forecast is limited as convective
redevelopment will be dependent on the boundaries laid out by
Saturday night storms. Air mass still looks to destabilize ahead of
the synoptic cold front, so we will carry likely POPs for Sunday
afternoon. Less inhibition will likely mean less organization, but
there is still plenty of instability to support at least an
isolated damaging wind threat.

Memorial Day figures to feature Chamber-of-Commerce weather as a
bubble of high pressure builds in behind the front. Expect max temps
very near climo, with dewpoints only in the 50s.  Much lower
confidence Tuesday through the middle of the week with low-amplitude
trofiness over the Great Lakes. Will keep Tue-Wed dry as most of the
forcing stays to our north, but carry a slight chance Thursday as we
tap into a better moisture feed.

&&

.Aviation...(0Z TAF Update)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all TAF sites through the valid TAF
period as weaker upper level ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Mid
and upper level clouds will diminish this evening and then build
back in tomorrow afternoon.  WNW winds will decline this evening as
well backing to the south late tonight into Fri morning. Wind speeds
should top out in the 8-12 kt range tomorrow afternoon with a few
higher gusts possible.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update............AMS
Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........AMS



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