384
FXUS63 KLMK 111749
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
149 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Patchy fog possible early this morning.

* Warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend, with
  additional shower and storm chances for Saturday and especially
  Sunday as a cold front approaches the area. Severe weather is
  not expected.

* Hot and mostly dry conditions expected for the middle of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

As anticipated, per visible satellite imagery, scattered Cu field is
developing, temperatures outside of the typical urban heat island
were in the low/mid 80s and dewpoints were in the low 70s. No
changes were made the grids as the current forecast looks good for
the rest of the day into the afternoon. Temperatures are still
anticipated to reach the low 90s with urban locations approaching
the mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Pretty quiet night across the area with mostly clear skies and mild
temps mostly in the 70s. Still expect there to be some patchy fog in
the pre-dawn hours through sunrise, but overall don`t expect it to
be quite as intense in spots as yesterday morning. Will continue to
carry patchy fog mention.

Upper ridging and the lack of any focusing mechanism to trigger
convection should keep us dry across the region today. Forecast
soundings do show some modest instability developing, however there
is a bit of a cap around H7. While a stray show or storm can`t
completely ruled out, any coverage should be less than mentionable
pops at this time. Outside of that, the most notable sensible
weather will be hot and humid temperatures once again. Given what we
saw yesterday and 1000-850 thicknesses suggesting another 2-3 degree
rise today went pretty aggressive with Max Ts. This should put most
everyone in the low to mid 90s with partly to mostly sunny skies and
a light SW wind. Max Heat Indices could approach 100 degrees for a
couple hours along and west of I-65 today, but also wonder if this
might be overdone just a bit as we mixed pretty deep, and brought
down some lower dew points in the afternoon. Still, the general feel
should be pretty hot and humid.

Quiet and dry conditions will continue into tonight with mild
overnight lows in the low and mid 70s for most. Warmer urban areas
may stay confined to the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Saturday - Monday...

Our region will be situated between upper ridging over the SE CONUS,
and an amplified trough axis over the central and northern Plains by
Saturday. As we progress through Saturday, and especially into
Sunday, the trough will win out over our area, which will result in
increased shower and storm coverage.

Saturday should be the warmest of the late week/weekend as max T`s
should easily reach into the low and mid 90s before scattered shower
and storm development in the afternoon and evening. Will keep the
best expected storm chances across the western CWA, closer to the
upper trough axis and approaching cool frontal boundary. Pulse storm
modes expected once again in the is environment with weak deep layer
shear.

Will keep shower and storm chances for Sunday in the likely/numerous
range given the upper trough and cool frontal boundary as triggers.
Although slight more deep layer shear will be present (0-8 km 15-20
knots), it still doesn`t appear to be enough for any notable
organization, especially amid modest ML CAPE values only in the 1000-
1500 J/KG range. Expecting pulse storm modes with slow storm
movement, and brief intense rainfall. PWATs do jump up into the
1.75" to 2" range, so efficient rates will be a good bet. Temps will
likely be a couple degree cooler, mainly due to the earlier storm
initiation, outflow boundaries, and increased sky cover.

The cool front finally arrives on Monday, and will take its time
exiting our eastern CWA. Will have to hang onto some scattered
shower and storm chances across our southern and eastern half of the
CWA as the upper trough axis and surface boundary boundary are slow
to clear. NW CWA will be mostly to completely dry with temps back in
the upper 80s to near 90 for highs.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Better confidence than yesterday for hot and dry conditions for the
mid week time frame as the SE CONUS upper ridge looks to build and
hold for the most part. Another shortwave trough looks to dig and
progress across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region, and
this could bring enough influence to bring scattered shower and
storm chances back by Thursday, but for now it appear the upper
ridge may end up being the winner over our area. Will keep some
chances in, but will lean toward a warmer/drier overall solution
given the pattern. As mentioned in the previous discussion, these
could be some pretty warm days with highs in the low and mid 90s,
and peak heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range for many.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Steep mid-level lapse and good amount of afternoon heating has
allowed very isolated moderate showers to form with the occasional
lightning strike. These will likely be very sparse through the
afternoon before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. We
are seeing BKN to SCT Cu around 3500 to 5000 Ft. Outside of one of
these showers and possible storms hitting a TAF site, VFR flight
categories are expected through the forecast period. Skies will
clear overnight with winds generally light. We remain VFR into
tomorrow morning before we could see a few more showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...