Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 050453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1253 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2015

On track for a little bit of a warmer night, given that the clearing
today gave us a warmer start than this time Saturday evening.
Forecasting lows to go into the 50s for most locations. KSDF may
stay at 60, but not worth a change in the zone forecast at this
point. Cannot rule out a few cloud layers developing briefly during
the night, as model time-height sections do show some moisture
around 850 mb. Also, over south central Kentucky have a little
better chance for some lower level stratus to form toward daybreak.
Given current 5-10 kt winds, we should keep from having any fog
across the region. Grids have been updated, but again no need for a
zone update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2015

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an omega block
across the CONUS, with two cutoff lows across the Southeast and the
other across the Southwest.  This regime will place the Ohio Valley
within ridging aloft between the upper lows through the period which
will help keep sunshine and warmer temperatures in the forecast.

The upper-level low responsible for the rain/clouds the past few
days has begun to push of the Southeast coast.  As it does, the
deeper moisture will push off to the southeast with it, leaving
partly cloudy skies across the Ohio Valley tonight.  Winds will stay
up just enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling, thus lows in
the low to mid 50s seem reasonable.  Some patchy light fog will be
possible in decoupled valleys.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today.  Low-level thicknesses look
similar to today, but a day of drying soils and full sunshine should
help temperatures to warm a few degrees warmer than today which puts
highs in the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s.  Overnight lows tomorrow
night will fall into the mid/upper 50s with some lower 50s possible
in the sheltered east-central KY valleys.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2015

A quiet long term is in store for the Ohio Valley as we sit under an
upper ridge through Thursday. Surface high pressure moving through
the middle part of the country and the Great Lakes will assist in
providing pleasant, dry weather. High temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday will be in the 70s to around 80, with morning lows in the

On Friday an upper trof and associated surface cold front will sweep
through the region, bring scattered showers and perhaps an isolated
rumble or two of thunder. Confidence has increased slightly with
this system so will bump PoPs up a bit. Confidence has also
increased that this system will push on through (rather than hang up
overhead), so other than a few lingering showers on Saturday we may
end up with a mostly dry weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be
around 70 with lows around 50.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2015

The only concern for the TAFs this forecast period will be the
potential for some light fog and/or low ceilings early this morning
at BWG and LEX. Guidance is hinting at some MVFR fog at BWG and LEX.
Will put this in for BWG as winds will be light and variable.
However, winds at LEX should be a bit higher, so will keep the
forecast VFR there. Winds today will be out of the northeast around
6-8 knots. Some scattered cu will develop this afternoon.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
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