Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 141127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
627 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 320 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018


High pressure continues to build into the region this morning.
Combination of clear skies, light winds, and a fresh snowpack have
allowed temperatures to cool into the single digits across the
region.  A few spots have dropped below zero this morning mainly in
an arc from Madison county back through Casey, Adair, and Taylor
counties.  Quiet and cold weather is expected for the remainder of
the morning with lows bottoming out in the -5 to 0 range in the
valley/sheltered locations.  In the more urban areas, lows of 0-10
above will be seen.

Today looks to be quiet with the day starting off mostly sunny but
we`ll see high clouds filter into the region later in the day. Highs
look to top out in the 23 to 28 degree range.

Tonight, a weak warm front will lift northeastward and through the
region.  Weak lift associated with the front will likely kick off a
few snow showers across the region.  The best coverage looks to be
north of the parkways in northern Kentucky and into southern
Indiana.  A few tenths of an inch of accumulation could occur with
this activity. Lows will range from 15 to 20 in most areas.

For Monday, surface warm front will continue to move northeastward
and away from the region. This should allow surface temperatures to
warm into the lower-mid 30s across the region for a time.  However,
an arctic cold front will drop into the region from the northwest.
Just behind the cold front, a band of snow showers will drop
southeastward through the region.  Trends in the higher resolution
guidance didn`t show the band as impressive as in previous runs.
Though the global models of the Euro and GFS are similar to their
previous solutions.  The band looks to pass through much of the
region Monday evening and will likely leave behind some minor
accumulations of snow.

Current thinking is similar to the previous forecast.  Most likely
scenario is that most areas will likely average between 1-1.5 inches
of new snow.  Some areas may see less than an inch, and some areas
may top out just above the 1.5 inch mark.  Temps will drop quickly
in the evening and bottom out in the single digits.  Combination of
the cold temps and snow will likely lead to negative travel impacts
Monday night and into Tuesday morning.


.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

We`ll see some lingering snow showers and flurries early on Tuesday,
but the main story here will be the cold weather settling back into
the region.  Highs Tuesday will only struggle to warm into the teens
with wind chills in the single digits.  Lows Tuesday night are
likely to drop to near or below zero in many locations.  Some light
winds will be possible and may push us close to Wind Chill Advisory
criteria by morning.  Highs Wednesday will edge a little warmer with
readings in the upper teens to near 20.  Lows Wednesday night will
drop back into the single digits.

By Thursday, we`ll see the upper level trough shift to the east and
substantial ridging will build into the region from the west.  We
will start a moderating trend in temperatures with a decent looking
warming taking place.  Highs on Thursday should push into the upper
20s to the lower 30s.  Lows Thursday night will be back in the
teens.  A deeper southerly flow should be in place by Friday which
will allow temps to run into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Lows
Friday night will not be as cool with readings only dropping into
the 30s.  Much warmer weather arrives by Saturday with highs back
into the 50s.

The warmup won`t last all that long as a strong cold front will
approach the region from the west.  This will bring a period of
unsettled weather, in the form of rain showers, to the region on
Sunday.  Highs by Sunday may push into the upper 50s to near 60.
Though temps will likely be some 20 degrees cooler by the time we
get into Monday and Tuesday of next week.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

Arctic high pressure will control the weather for much this TAF
cycle. We`ll stay VFR with only a few upper clouds and light and
variable winds through much of the upcoming day. By evening, sky
cover will begin to increase, along with lowering ceilings (still
VFR). A weak warm front will develop over the area and could spark a
few snow showers. The most likely spot will be HNB, but SDF/LEX
could also see some flurries. Ceilings will come down right around
the VFR/MVFR threshold through the overnight, but will mostly stay
optimistic just above the threshold. A light but steady south wind
should also take hold overnight.




Short Term...MJ
Long Term...MJ
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