Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 200507
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Most of the cloud cover has finally dissipated this afternoon and
with that temperatures have risen quickly into the upper 50s to
lower 60s across the region. Mostly clear skies will persist through
a portion of the evening. However, overnight an upper level trough
will begin to move into the Ohio Valley. A PV anomaly will drop SE
in the northwest flow, moving through tomorrow morning. Ahead of
this feature, clouds will be on the increase late this evening into
the overnight hours. Most of the models also indicate isolated to
scattered showers will develop in association with this PV anomaly
and this batch of precipitation will cross the area tomorrow morning.

For tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night, a cold front will
approach and move through. Another batch of light showers will be
associated with this feature. Though most of the showers will this
will be across portions of southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky, some of the high res models suggest isolated showers will
be possible areawide, so will likely keep in a slight chance for the
whole area tomorrow afternoon. The focus tomorrow night will be
across the Bluegrass.

Lows tonight will bottom out in the lower to mid 40s. The coolest
temps will be in the east where cloud cover will hold off the
longest. Highs tomorrow will be warmer than today topping out in the
lower to mid 60s. Lows tomorrow night will remain a bit warmer in
the upper 40s to around 50.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shallow low-level moisture streaming off Lake Michigan behind the
departing short term system will bring clouds and perhaps a few
raindrops to the region Tuesday morning, especially from southeast
Indiana into the Kentucky Blue Grass.  It will be a cool autumn day
with a general lack of sunshine, a north breeze around 10 mph, and
highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Over the rest of the week and into the weekend, Canadian high
pressure will build in from the north, settle into the Ohio Valley,
and then get reinforced by high pressure entering from the
northwest...resulting in a dry forecast.

A few of the usual sheltered, rural cold spots could see some
patches of very light frost Thursday morning and Friday morning,
but widespread frost looks unlikely at this time.  Afternoon highs
will gradually increase from the middle and upper 50s Wednesday to
near 70 Sunday.  In addition to the pleasant temperatures, light
winds and lots of sunshine are expected to give us a beautiful
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites for much of the
overnight, however will focus on an incoming disturbance toward the
later morning hours. Ceilings are currently broken above 10 K feet,
however expect ceilings to gradually lower toward dawn, but remain
VFR. Some light rain showers will be possible at SDF/LEX ahead of a
mid level disturbance with the best timing between 7 and 9 AM EDT at
SDF, and between 9 and 11 AM EDT at LEX. Think these showers will be
light enough that visibilities should stay above 6 SM, however
cannot rule out a brief drop into MVFR.

Otherwise, surface winds will be light out of the south, gradually
increasing in strength and veering to SW through the day. Low and
mid level clouds will hang around this evening, however expect just
above the MVFR/VFR threshold at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........BJS





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