Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 230725
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
325 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Steady mid and upper level height falls have set in and will
continue today as a synoptic scale trough swings southeast over the
Great Lakes. Modest flow aloft will finally become cyclonic as the
upper ridge continues to establish itself over the Four Corners. At
the surface, a convectively-reinforced boundary was oriented east-
west across southern Indiana.

Two separate MCSs were ongoing early this morning, one over southern
IN/northern KY and another impacting southern OH/northeast KY. These
clusters of thunderstorms were moving to the ESE at 30-35 kts. The
strong convection over the northern CWA has pushed out an outflow
boundary, which was moving south through Bullitt, Hardin, Meade, and
Breckinridge counties, extending back northwest into Perry Co, IN.
Numerous thunderstorms will continue across mainly southern IN and
the northern half of central KY through 11-12z. While the convection
will become increasingly elevated, an axis of 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE
and a very warm, moist boundary layer should allow for robust
convection for another 2-3 hours. Convection is expected to
gradually diminish by 12z.

Isolated activity can`t be completely ruled out after 12z, but in
general, a lull in precipitation looks likely into the early
afternoon. With fairly strong heating once again today,
redevelopment over central KY along remnant boundaries is expected
during the second half of the day. Storms this afternoon and evening
could quickly become strong, capable of very heavy rain, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds. The strongest updrafts may produce small
hail.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect generally along and west of I-65,
where heat indices will peak in the 100-106 range. The hottest
conditions are expected in the southwest, including Bowling Green
and surrounding areas.

Rain and storms will push southeast late this evening into the
overnight period, with most areas dry after midnight. Lows will fall
into the upper 60s to lower 70s behind the cool front. Highs on
Monday will be near climatological normals, in the mid 80s to around
90 degrees. Models continue to suggest weak convergence associated
with the stalled boundary on Monday, so we may see isolated to
scattered showers/storms.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Tuesday will feature mid-level height rises, with surface high
pressure over the Great Lakes. We`ll likely see mostly sunny skies
with a light northeast wind here in central KY and southern IN.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. We`ll likely see a stretch of
dry weather and normal summertime temps that continues through
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will likely warm to around 90.

The passage of a shortwave trough and its associated cold front
bring showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast for Thursday
and Thursday night. Post-frontal upper troughing, along with
Canadian high pressure, may provide some downright "cool" weather
Friday into the weekend. Highs in the low to mid 80s look possible,
with lows in the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Storms across southern Indiana will steadily progress to the
southeast and affect SDF/LEX during the pre-dawn hours. SDF will be
most under the gun, with a gust front possibly coming in from the
northwest sometime between 0640 and 07Z followed by heavy rain and
frequent lightning if the storms hold together. Will continue to
monitor radar closely.

Some borderline LLWS may develop, especially at SDF and LEX, but
with the presence of thunderstorms in the TAFs left the LLWS out.

The pre-dawn activity will die down as the sun comes up, followed by
a lull for much of the morning. Convection is then expected to re-
fire this afternoon as a weakening front comes in from the
northwest. Those storms should then diminish this evening.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ083-
     084-089>091.

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>030-038-045-053-061>063-070>074.

&&

$$

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...13


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