Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 151431
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
931 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 930 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Much of the region is seeing a break in precipitation currently,
with the exception of the Lake Cumberland area. However, more
showers are expected to move in from the west through mid day. The
more widespread rain will come tonight into tomorrow with the cold
front. Have made some adjustments to pops through the day today
based on the latest high resolution runs. Otherwise, the forecast is
in good shape.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Warm and moist SW flow is well established across the Ohio Valley,
but that moisture remains fairly shallow and is limiting any precip
potential tonight. A series of mid and upper-level waves in the
northern stream will sharpen and drive a cold front into the Ohio
Valley late tonight.

Ahead of the front, we`ll see areas of light rain and drizzle today,
mainly across southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky. Even with
the clouds and light precip, temps will be unseasonably warm with
highs near 70. Best shot at a break in the clouds will be in the
south, which could allow BWG to challenge its record high of 77,
which dates back to 1945. Should see just enough cloud cover to keep
records safe at SDF (74) and LEX (76). Also expect SW winds to crank
up to 15-25 mph sustained, with gusts peaking over 30 mph. Mixing
still appears too shallow for winds or gusts to hit Advisory levels.

Tonight the cold front will drop into southern Indiana, ramping up
the coverage and especially the intensity of precip. Forecast
soundings show a strong warm nose around 750-800mb, but there is a
brief window for enough instability to support isolated thunder this
evening.

East-west oriented axis of precip will follow the front southward
across central Kentucky on Friday. Expect a flat or falling temp
curve through the day. Total precip through the end of the day
Friday could approach 1 inch across southern Indiana, but that is
where streams are best able to handle the rainfall. Locally heavier
rainfall could result in short-fuse nuisance flooding, but that
should remain too localized to justify a Flood or Flash Flood Watch.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

...Increased Potential For River Flooding Next Week...

Limited-confidence forecast in a very active pattern this weekend
into next week. West Coast trof and East Coast ridge will be the
stars of the show. The details of where and when heavy rainfall will
occur remain fairly uncertain.

For the weekend it will be a low-amplitude pattern, with chilly but
dry conditions Friday night into Saturday morning as high pressure
passes quickly to our north. A progressive southern stream
disturbance takes shape for Saturday and taps into some Gulf
moisture, lending high confidence to a wet Saturday afternoon
forecast for south-central Kentucky. If it phases sufficiently with
a northern stream wave, that could bring wet weather farther north.
For now will carry low-end likely POPs for southern Indiana and
north-central Kentucky. Precip should arrive late enough in the day
to be all rain.

Dry and mild weather is expected Sunday in between systems. Precip
chances return Sunday night and will stay with us well into next
week as the pattern starts to amplify. Deep SW flow over the
Mississippi and Ohio Valley will interact with a nearly stationary
cold front to trigger rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall. Could be
looking at several inches of rain over the first half of next week
where that front parks itself, but there remains plenty of model
disagreement as to where that will be. Continue to keep up to date
with the latest forecasts as details become clearer in the coming
days.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Scattered showers and drizzle will spread over the region this
morning then gradually clear out for the afternoon. Plan on IFR to
low-end MVFR ceilings for much of the period though visibilities are
expected to remain VFR. Southwest winds will pick up later this
morning, becoming sustained near 20 kts with gusts near 30 kts
likely this afternoon through early evening.

A strong cold front will pass through the area early Friday morning
with a band of rain associated with it. Expect a sharp wind shift
from the southwest to northwest toward 12z Friday.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...EER
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...ZT



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