Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 122015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 259 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

The cold front is currently making its way through the region. A
narrow line of gusty showers along the front will continue to move
through central Kentucky over the next few hours. Behind the front,
temperatures will quickly fall into the upper lower 50s to upper

The main concern for tonight will be whether there will be any
chances for freezing rain. Some light showers will be possible
behind the front but they should move out before freezing
temperatures can make their way in. The latest mesoscale models have
come in much drier for the overnight period. Thus, have taken pops
out of the forecast completely for much of the overnight hours for
southern Indiana and portions of north central Kentucky. The
freezing line looks to remain generally north of the I-64 corridor.
Thus, the precipitation should mainly stay to the south of the
freezing temperatures. However, rain starts to move back to the
north tomorrow as another wave moves in and there could be a brief
period of freezing rain before temperatures warm into the mid to
upper 30s. The main concern for this will be in southwestern
portions of southern IN. May issue an SPS for this, but otherwise,
freezing rain tomorrow morning does not look to be much of a problem
for this time frame, especially given how warm road temps are

Temperatures will stay on the colder side during the day Friday.
Highs will generally be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Temps should
start to fall to near freezing across our northern tier of southern
IN counties (generally Dubois to Jefferson counties in IN) by 03Z
Saturday. Thus some light freezing rain will be possible in this
region tomorrow night with some light ice accumulations of a few
hundredths possible.

This is a complicated forecast as the region remains right on the
edge of the colder air. A few degrees in either direction could
result in a bit more ice or none in southern IN over the next couple
of nights. Close attention should be paid to updates over the next
couple of days.


.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

Saturday through Sunday Night...

The stalled boundary asross the region will remain in place through
the weekend. Rounds of showers will move through as waves ride along
this boundary. Temperatures will be close to freezing across
Jefferson county IN Sunday morning, so some light freezing rain
can`t be completely ruled out. However, if any occurs it should be
brief and any impacts mitigated by temps warming above freezing
Sunday. We may finally get a break in the rain on Sunday night as
the boundary lifts to the north as a warm front thanks to a low
pressure system beginning to eject out of the southwest. Temps will
vary quite a bit across the region through the weekend with highs
across southern IN in the lower 40s and highs across south central
KY in the mid to upper 50s.

Monday through Thursday...

Monday the lower Ohio Valley should be solidly in the warm sector
with just scattered showers developing during the day. High
temperatures will once again be well above normal in the lower to
mid 60s. Rain chances will be on the increase Tuesday into Tuesday
night as the cold front associated with a low pressure system making
its way into Canada moves in. We could see a few rumbles of thunder
on Tuesday as well. The boundary then looks to stall across the
region on Wednesday with rain continuing. Precipitable water values
continue to look like they will be near record levels. With the
amount of rain and saturated grounds, flooding may become an issue
by mid week.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

A sharp cold front approaching the Ohio River early this afternoon
will barge through the TAF sites during the 20-22Z time frame. Winds
will abruptly shift from southwest to northwest. Winds will remain
somewhat gusty for a couple hours behind the front.

The surface boundary will be accompanied by a narrow line of showers
and possibly some rumbles of thunder. Visibility may reduce
significantly in the heart of the line of convection, but will be
very brief.

IFR stratus is widespread behind the front across Indiana and
Illinois. Although some guidance is suggesting these ceilings may be
slightly higher, above 1000`, by the time they reach central
Kentucky, it appears more likely that ceilings just below that
threshold will affect the TAF sites by this evening given the
preponderance of low ceilings upstream. This is also in good
agreement with the previous TAF package.

Those low clouds will get locked in under a sharp inversion and
remain in the TAFs through much of tomorrow.

While the northern TAF sites should dry out fairly quickly after
FROPA, BWG will continue to experience showers in the area as the
front slows down and remains INVOF southern Kentucky.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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