Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 202002
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
302 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.Short Term (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

A surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure centered over
the eastern Great Lakes, extending down into Carolinas while low
pressure was over Red River Valley in the northern Plains. After
this morning`s fog, southerly winds and mostly sunny skies have
allowed readings to warm well into the 70s, making for a very
pleasant February day. Some of our official sites will make a run
for record highs today.

The main forecast concern in the short term is precipitation chances
tomorrow and tomorrow night as a mid-level wave, currently stretched
from the Texas Gulf Coast north to the Upper Midwest, moves east
into the lower Ohio Valley. No fog concerns tonight as a combination
of mid/high clouds and winds at the surface and aloft should keep
the boundary layer mixed enough. Plan on warmer lows in the low/mid
50s.

The southern stream energy associated with the aforementioned mid
level trough will pinch off and form a closed low tomorrow as it
drops toward New Orleans. Meanwhile the bulk of the northern stream
energy passes through the Great Lakes. Not much moisture transport
or focus across our area during the day so while there should be
plenty of clouds, think that precipitation chances/coverage will
remain on the scattered side and have kept PoPs in the 30-40 percent
range.

The short term guidance does suggest a piece of energy from the
southern closed low will pivot north and brush south-central
Kentucky tomorrow evening/night, so kept a model consensus blend of
likely PoPs there. Overall, rainfall amounts with this feature look
rather light, mainly on the order of 2/10 of an inch or less.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

The main focus in the long term remains on the strong storm system
expected to move through the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night.

Ahead of it, unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast Wednesday
and Thursday with temperatures in the upper 60 to low 70s. On
Thursday, showers and possibly a thunderstorm associated with the
warm frontal passage continues to look less likely across our area
and be more to the north. As a result, precipitation chances were
kept in the slight chance range.

For the Friday system, the 20.12z guidance trended a bit slower with
the frontal passage but overall the synoptic and dynamic setup looks
pretty consistent. A deepening low will race from the central Plains
toward to the lower Great Lakes. Ahead of it, strong southerly flow
will surge much warmer air into our region. Increased highs in the
mid 70s above the model consensus blend, and some of the guidance
suggests upper 70s is possible for some locations.

Showers and storms are possible Friday, mainly in the afternoon, but
likely Friday evening as the front comes through. With SBCAPE near
1000 J/kg and a sufficient wind shear environment, a few strong to
severe storms may be possible across parts of the area. The SPC
Day 5 outlook looks good at this point.

In the wake of that system, a surge of cooler, but still near
normal, air arrives across the region. Highs Saturday and Sunday
look to stay in the upper 40s to mid 50s with lows in the 30s/40s.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Visibilities have improved as morning fog dissipated, but may need
to initialize with some lingering MVFR haze. That will be an
issuance time decision. Otherwise expect light SE winds and SCT-BKN
cirrus this afternoon and tonight. Cirrus and warm advection should
keep any fog at bay on Tue morning.

Low-level moisture feed deepens around mid-morning, and will drop
ceilings into MVFR at BWG, while SDF and LEX remain just barely VFR.
Precip shield creeps in from the west, just close enough to warrant
VCSH at BWG. Arrival in LEX is beyond the valid TAF period, and
enough uncertainty at SDF to limit it to a PROB group in the
planning period.

&&

Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2016

Record temperatures for the next few days.

Louisville:
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 51 (1878)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     70 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 61 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     71 (1992*)

Lexington:
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1997)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     71 (1874)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     70 (1922)

Bowling Green:
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1897)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     75 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1961*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     74 (1922)

Frankfort:
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 47 (1949)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     73 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 47 (1906)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     72 (1997)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 49 (1935*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     72 (1922)

* means most recent occurrence, record occurred in previous years as
  well

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RAS
Climate...........ZT



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