Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 162310
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Medium confidence in the short term. Although the main cold front
will exiting the east coast by tonight...there is a secondary or
reinforcing cold front expected to move this evening. This combined
with wrap around moisture from the low could result in drizzle or
even some light rain this evening. Nothing significant is expected
overnight. The next system worth mentioning could bring some wintry
precip to the area...mainly along and south of the West KY Parkway.
At this time we could see trace amounts across central KY averaging
around a half inch along the TN border. We could see brief mixes
with sleet or freezing rain or sleet. But should only see trace to a
hundredth of ice if any falls at all. In addition if the temps are
one to two degrees warmer than forecast we could see liquid precip
which would negate snow accumulations a great deal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Thursday night through Tuesday...

Medium confidence in the extended at best due to the migration of
the next storm migrating southward from model run to model run.

The ECMWF seems to have the most stability from run to run but the
12z Tue run was slow to come in today. The gulf will open up ahead
of the next system allowing adequate moisture to flow back into
the region ahead of an upper level disturbance make its way onto
the west coast now. This upper level system does have surface
reflection as a surface low which marches across the gulf states.
This is a little far south for the most favorable path to produce
snow for this area. However as previous discussion stated we will
be on the northern portion of the precipitation shield. This
system will Friday night into Saturday according to model and
office consensus. After that high pressure will take over until
the middle of next week when the next system arrives.

As for temps...they appear to be near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 605 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Some patchy drizzle will continue to cause minor impacts to
visibility over the next few hours at SDF/LEX, otherwise the main
concern will focus on ceilings and wind direction at SDF. Do expect
that the low MVFR ceilings currently in place will hold through the
overnight with little variation from where they are currently
settled. A few brief periods of IFR can`t be ruled out, but are not
expected to persist.

Wind direction at SDF is another concern as an almost direct
crosswind to the parallel runways in the 10 to 20 mph range could
cause some impacts to arrival/departure rates. Do have winds veering
slightly to around 280 degrees in a couple of hours with winds
settling around 10-15 mph toward Midnight. Winds should hold their
direction and will only slowly slacken thereafter.

Do expect BWG to scatter out late tomorrow morning through the
afternoon, however SDF/LEX will likely hold onto MVFR ceilings.
These ceilings are expected to rise above fuel-alternate though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KH
Long Term.........KH
Aviation..........BJS





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