Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 181504

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1104 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...Forecast Update...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows last of the river valley fog has
burned off giving way to clear skies. A few passing cirrus will be
moving across central Kentucky and southern Indiana this afternoon.
Otherwise, a beautiful autumn day is in store as highs top out right
around 70 degrees. No forecast updates needed.


.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A passing upper-level trough bringing a few high clouds into Eastern
KY early this morning. At the surface, high pressure is anchoring
over the Mid-Atlantic states and will ridge across the Appalachians
through Thursday. By then we also will have ridging aloft, making
for a couple of dry days, with a little warmer temperatures each day.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

The surface high will not move much from the eastern seaboard
through Saturday, whereas the upper ridge will migrate slowly
eastward. That will mean continued above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. Then Sunday, heights aloft should fall and a cold front
will approach the area. Models continue to have a difficult time
with this next feature. Last night at this time, we had an upper
trough pushing the ridge further east and allowing the front to move
through. The Euro has flip/flopped a couple of times between this
solution and having the ridge force the upper trough to cutoff into
a closed low over the Deep South. The GFS and GEM now are showing
the latter solution, whereas the 00Z Euro has gone back to the more
progressive one. The GEFS shows both solutions in its spread field,
with peaks along the mean trough axis and another bullseye over west
TX. Either solution brings a good shot at rain Sunday into Sunday
night, but after that the question mark becomes which solution wins
out. Have trimmed the blended model guidance for Mon/Tue.

Temperatures should stay warm to end the work week and for Saturday,
but then added cloud cover will bring cooler readings for Sunday.
Should the front pass, or with the continuation of cloud cover, our
highs should stay near or go below normal to start the next work


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

IFR/LIFR fog has been common at BWG since 07z this morning, and this
will likely be an impact through 12-13z. No concerns at the other
TAF sites this morning, with locally dense fog confined to river
valleys. The rest of the day will be VFR with sunny skies. Winds
will continue to be light and variable this morning and increase
toward 16z. As high pressure slowly builds further east today,
southerly winds will increase to 5-9 kts.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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