Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 280705
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
Surface low pressure over northeast Ohio and continuing to pull
away, leaving us a gentle west wind this hour. So far not seeing any
fog form thanks to this breeze, though would not be surprised to see
a few patches develop toward daybreak, especially where our winds
are lightest in the southwest forecast area as well as parts of Lake
Cumberland. The rest of today should be pleasant, with highs in the
mid 70s to around 80, as high pressure scoots by south of the area,
and we sit between vortmaxes aloft.
The next system will move into the Midwest later tonight, bringing a
chance for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder overnight. The
best chance to measure would be along and west of a BWG/SDF/CVG line
by 12Z Monday. Would expect the rest of the day Monday to depend on
how much rain gets in here in the morning. For now going with lots
of cloud cover and highs around 80. This forecast would lean more
towards the GFS for the various instability parameters as well as
its lower precipitable water forecasts. Latest SREF leans this
direction as well, much lower than the NAM forecast. Thus am going
with chance-range pops for the day. If we get warmer than in this
forecast, we could see some small hail with any stronger storms that
develop during the late afternoon.
In addition to the rain chances, we should see some gradient winds
during the day Monday, as low pressure moves by to our north. Expect
sustained southwest winds of 10-15 knots with higher gusts.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
Well...anomalous upper trough with herculean ridge over Silver State
and Beehive State out west. The main long wave will push easy but
as large ridge amplifies (Torrid record heat for NV, UT, AZ/CA)
reinforcing northern jet stream resulting in fast moving mid level
short waves and some convective activity for the OH Valley every
24-36 hours or so nearby.
Bottom line, below normal temps this week, with some rainfall.
Monday Night thru Tuesday Night...
Two short waves thru period, first is the continuation of the Monday
aftn system that will pivot thru from the NW CWA by HNB and takes it
time to get across the SE CWA by Lake Cumberland region. Broke up
POPS and weather grids to 00-04z with higher POPS and decrease them
05-17z to slight chance to low chance.
Tuesday may indeed be a repeat of Monday with a short wave swinging
thru with a sufficient thermodynamics to boot. LIs are -3 to -5,
steep low and mid level lapse rates, and WBZ 10 to 11K ft for late
June. Hail will most definitely be a threat from 18z to 06z. Looks
like scattered storms with BB to pea size hail I suspect we will be
in a marginal risk from SPC for Tue. Roughly the highs will be in
the low 80s Tuesday, with lows 65 to 70.
Wednesday through Saturday...
Lowered pops Wed through 18z, then focus is on a frontal boundary
will stall from Appalachians of WV along I 70 west through the Land
of Lincoln west on I 70 through the Show Me State and west on I 70
through Sunflower State. This will be somewhat parallel to upper
flow. cloud be some heavier rain Wednesday night in the OH Valley
Depending on the juxtaposition of the boundary, will set stage for
at least scattered mainly afternoon and evening development. ECM
and to some degree GFS pick up on MCS from MO to KY, so went high
chance pops late Wed into Wed night. Looks like Highs in the low to
mid 80s (70s if cloudy stormy convection persists), and lows in the
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015
Temperatures are taking a little longer to fall at BWG then
previously expected. As such, think the fog threat is low enough to
keep out of the TAFs at this time. LEX is cooler but winds may stay
up enough there to preclude fog. Rest of the day should be VFR with
west winds as high pressure moves across the Deep South. Chance for
showers will increase toward the end of SDF`s TAF period, daybreak
Monday, but too low to include in this set of TAFs.