Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 102305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
705 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Upper level ridging will remain in place through the short term
period. At the surface an elongated area of high pressure will
slowly slide across the region through Sunday night. This will
bring us continued dry and pleasant fall weather.

The only concern for tonight will be the potential for fog
formation. With high pressure over the region bringing mostly clear
skies and light winds, conditions will be good for radiational
cooling. Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to mid
40s. Many places across south central KY will likely fall below their
crossover temperatures. This region also has slightly higher
dewpoints and received more rain yesterday. Thus, some areas of fog
will be possible across south and potentially east central KY
tonight. Elsewhere, fog should be more patchy if it develops.

Highs tomorrow will be warmer than today, topping out in the lower
to mid 70s. Lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper 40s to lower

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Still looks like the best chance for rain this period will be with a
cold frontal passage Monday/Monday night. A couple of other waves
pass through later in the period, but precipitable water will be
much higher with the first front, though as previous forecaster
mentioned even that will be less than with the system yesterday.
Models forecast the peak of moisture coming across just ahead of
that front, with timing ranging from 12Z Monday to 06Z Tuesday.
Even with the time of day being roughly favorable for development,
dry surface air ahead of the front looks to be limiting model QPF
fields, thus will maintain continuity with previous shift and call
only for isolated to widely scattered showers.

Monday still looks to be the warmest day of the period, with a good
southwesterly flow ahead of the front. Highs should be in the mid to
upper 70s, with an 80 not our of the question in a couple of spots.
The rest of the days will vary between a little below normal and
normal as we go between those dry fronts later in the week.


.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Clear and calm tonight as high pressure settles over the Ohio
Valley. Therefore the sole remaining challenge is fog potential.
Model guidance suggests MVFR fog in both BWG and LEX. However, LEX
is much less likely to reach crossover temp, so will carry MVFR
visibilities as a worst case, if at all. BWG is expected to cross
over, and had more rain yesterday, so confidence is higher that
MVFR if not IFR visibilities will occur.

Moisture is shallow enough that we should recover to VFR by mid-
morning, with light SW winds through the day.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
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