Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 210127
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
927 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 926 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

A line of showers currently stretches from central IL across central
IN along a frontal boundary. These showers have been weakening
across IN over the last hour or so. It still looks like they should
dissipate north of our southern IN counties, so will continue a dry
forecast overnight. Just some minor tweaks were made tonight to the
forecast over the next few hours.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

A recent surface analysis showed high pressure across the Tennessee
Valley with a weak area of low pressure across the lower Great
Lakes. Visible satellite imagery showed scattered cumulus across
central Kentucky and temperatures have reached the 80s across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

Relatively quiet weather in the near and short term. A weak front
will push south from the lower Great Lakes into central Indiana and
western Ohio. It may spark isolated showers and storms this evening
but this activity is expected to not reach southern Indiana, so will
maintain the dry forecast. Plan on lows tonight in the 60s.

For Wednesday, dry and warmer weather remains on tap as the high
pressure center heads off to the east and we get more of a southerly
flow into the region.  Highs will range from 83-88 across our
eastern sections with highs of 85-90 from the I-65 corridor and
points west. Wednesday night will remain dry but with increasing
mid/high clouds from the south. Lows will be in the upper 60s to
around 70.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Possible Friday and Friday
Night...

Wet weather is expected late this week as the remnant low of the
newly named TS Cindy interacts with a cold front dropping south into
the Ohio Valley. Thursday and Thursday night will see clouds and
precip spreading from south to north across Kentucky ahead of the
tropical system, which by then will be weakening over land.

The worst weather is expected on Friday and Friday night, as the
front guides the slug of tropical moisture across the Ohio Valley.
Over the course of 48 hrs, expect a fairly widespread 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall, but each of the synoptic models hint at a banded
feature of the decaying tropical low interacting with the surface
cold front to produce very intense local rainfall rates and flash
flooding sometime on Friday. Still too early to pinpoint where this
will set up, and enough rain is expected throughout the area that
all interests should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

We should dry out through the day on Saturday as the front acts to
shunt the tropical moisture off to our south and east. Will carry
slight chance POPs on Sunday with an upper impulse as a trof is
carved out over the Great Lakes. Canadian high pressure will build
down the Plains early next week, giving dry and unseasonably cool
conditions. Coolest day is Monday with lows in the 50s and highs in
the 70s, with the ECMWF and its much sharper upper trof pointing
toward the cooler end of those ranges. Either way expect temps at
least 10 degrees below normal both day and night.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through this TAF period. A
weak front will wash out across IN/OH tonight and should have little
effect other than to bring a few more clouds to SDF and LEX early
tomorrow morning. Winds will become light and variable overnight.
They will increase again to 7-9 knots out of the southwest tomorrow
afternoon.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...EER
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation...EER



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