


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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993 FXUS63 KLMK 081920 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds and brief torrential rainfall this afternoon. Storm coverage will diminish by this evening. * Warm and humid all week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Organized severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Weak sfc boundary is along the Ohio River today, with sfc temps in the upper 80s and low 90s across the forecast area, and dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. A cluster of thunderstorms is noted across western KY, being driven by a pocket of deep moisture convergence and upper level divergence. Despite marginal instability, little to no wind shear is keeping any convection unorganized. PWATs above 1.5" will support some heavy rain rates near the BWG area. Overall, this cluster of storms is expected to continue to weaken as it pushes east this afternoon. CAMs have performed poorly today, so confidence in additional precip outside of this cluster remains low. By this evening, the loss of daytime heating will promote a decease in precip activity. Overnight, mid-level clouds will linger overhead as we remain under the influence of general troughiness and the weak frontal boundary. Before sunrise, some patchy fog may develop, especially in our valleys and any areas that do pick up some rain this afternoon. For tomorrow, the weak boundary is expected to dissipate, though we will remain in a warm and muggy airmass. Stacked shortwave energy is supporting a sfc low over the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front through the Midwest. This front will shift southeastward by tomorrow, and will be cutting across central IN and IL by the end of the day. The combination of warm daytime heating and muggy airmass, along with marginal instability ahead of the front, will support additional isolated to scattered shower and storm development across the region tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Model soundings suggest PWATS to be above 1.7", suggesting heavy rain possible. Wind shear will be weak, leading to another day of messy garden variety storms, with slower storm motions. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Upper level troughing will remain over the region for Wednesday night and into Thursday, with upper ridging centered over the southwestern US. A second weak cold front will be shifting southward through the upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, driven by a sfc low passing over the Great Lakes. Additional showers and storms will be possible Wednesday night and Thursday as we remain in a warm and humid airmass. The front is not expected to pass through the forecast area, likely getting stalled out north of the Ohio River on Thursday and Friday. This will keep our forecast area in the warm side of the boundary, with muggy dewpoints and above average PWATs available for afternoon destabilization as we warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Diurnally-driven storms will fire off in a marginally unstable environment, but weak flow in the column will keep wind shear weak. This will promote storms to be unorganized, though should be capable of producing heavy downpours and gusty winds. As we get into the weekend, the frontal boundary will lift north of the region, though additional shortwave energy will lead to another sfc low to track across the Great Lakes, and trail an associated cold front through the Midwest. We will remain warm and muggy, with highs both Saturday and Sunday in the upper 80s and lower 90s, and dewpoints in the lower 70s during peak heating. Shower and storm chances will continue each afternoon for the weekend and into early next week. Precip coverage is expected to diminish into the nighttime hours as we lose heating each day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions are ongoing across the region this afternoon, with a scattered cu field overhead. A cluster of storms is moving across southwestern KY, which may impact BWG later this afternoon. Otherwise, a few isolated pop-up showers are possible near LEX and RGA, but not confident enough to include a PROB30 group at those terminals. Mid-level clouds will persist overnight, though VFR flight cats are expected tonight and into tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...CJP